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- ItemClimate Change in Central and Eastern Europe(Dordrecht : Springer, 2014) Anders, I.; Stagl, J.; Auer, I.; Pavlik, D.Climate change is affecting many fields of the society, policy, economy and environment. Information on changes in the climate during the last centuries and especially in near and far future is essential. Estimation and quantification of changes in climate variables and indices are a necessary precondition for adaptation and mitigation measures. This chapter gives an overview on measures, observations as well as dynamical models, which are available to estimate changes in the past and the present climate as well as for a possible future climate. It summarises the state of knowledge according to the climate change signal in Central and Eastern Europe. Moreover it identifies the limitations and uncertainties of the measures and the derived information.
- ItemClimate Change Impact Modelling Cascade – Benefits and Limitations for Conservation Management(Dordrecht : Springer, 2014) Vohland, K.; Rannow, S.; Stagl, J.Model results can serve as a basis for adaptation in conservation management. They can help understanding the impact of climate change, and support the formulation of management measures. However, model results rely strongly on the quality and the resolution of the input data; they contain significant uncertainties and need to be interpreted in the context of the modelling assumptions. The perception of models and their results differs between disciplines as well as between science and practice. Part of this gap derives from the long ‘model cascade’ used for the assessment of climate related impacts on biodiversity. For this ‘model cascade’ model results from Global Climate Models are often used to drive Regional Downscaled Climate Models and are transferred to hydrological models or distribution models of plants and animals. In fact, most assessments of potential impacts of climate change on biodiversity rely on habitat modelling of plants and animals. But, only few decision makers are trained to analyse the different outcomes of climate impact modelling. If modelling is integrated into conservation management it must be based on an evaluation of the need for information in protected areas and an assessment of model use in the management process, so as to guarantee maximum usability.
- ItemThe LEGATO cross-disciplinary integrated ecosystem service research framework: an example of integrating research results from the analysis of global change impacts and the social, cultural and economic system dynamics of irrigated rice production(Heidelberg : Springer Verlag, 2017) Spangenberg, J.H.; Beaurepaire, A.L.; Bergmeier, E.; Burkhard, B.; van Chien, H.; Cuong, L.Q.; Görg, C.; Grescho, V.; Hai, L.H.; Heong, K.L.; Horgan, F.G.; Hotes, S.; Klotzbücher, A.; Klotzbücher, T.; Kühn, I.; Langerwisch, F.; Marion, G.; Moritz, R.F.A.; Nguyen, Q.A.; Ott, J.; Sann, C.; Sattler, C.; Schädler, M.; Schmidt, A.; Tekken, V.; Thanh, T.D.; Thonicke, K.; Türke, M.; VáclavÃk, T.; Vetterlein, D.; Westphal, C.; Wiemers, M.; Settele, J.In a cross-disciplinary project (LEGATO) combining inter- and transdisciplinary methods, we quantify the dependency of rice-dominated socio-ecological systems on ecosystem functions (ESF) and the ecosystem services (ESS) the integrated system provides. In the collaboration of a large team including geo- and bioscientists, economists, political and cultural scientists, the mutual influences of the biological, climate and soil conditions of the agricultural area and its surrounding natural landscape have been analysed. One focus was on sociocultural and economic backgrounds, another on local as well as regional land use intensity and biodiversity, and the potential impacts of future climate and land use change. LEGATO analysed characteristic elements of three service strands defined by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA): (a) provisioning services: nutrient cycling and crop production; (b) regulating services: biocontrol and pollination; and (c) cultural services: cultural identity and aesthetics. However, in line with much of the current ESS literature, what the MA called supporting services is treated as ESF within LEGATO. As a core output, LEGATO developed generally applicable principles of ecological engineering (EE), suitable for application in the context of future climate and land use change. EE is an emerging discipline, concerned with the design, monitoring and construction of ecosystems and aims at developing strategies to optimise ecosystem services through exploiting natural regulation mechanisms instead of suppressing them. Along these lines LEGATO also aims to create the knowledge base for decision-making for sustainable land management and livelihoods, including the provision of the corresponding governance and management strategies, technologies and system solutions.
- ItemWhen optimization for governing human-environment tipping elements is neither sustainable nor safe(London : Nature Publishing Group, 2018) Barfuss, W.; Donges, J.F.; Lade, S.J.; Kurths, J.Optimizing economic welfare in environmental governance has been criticized for delivering short-term gains at the expense of long-term environmental degradation. Different from economic optimization, the concepts of sustainability and the more recent safe operating space have been used to derive policies in environmental governance. However, a formal comparison between these three policy paradigms is still missing, leaving policy makers uncertain which paradigm to apply. Here, we develop a better understanding of their interrelationships, using a stylized model of human-environment tipping elements. We find that no paradigm guarantees fulfilling requirements imposed by another paradigm and derive simple heuristics for the conditions under which these trade-offs occur. We show that the absence of such a master paradigm is of special relevance for governing real-world tipping systems such as climate, fisheries, and farming, which may reside in a parameter regime where economic optimization is neither sustainable nor safe.
- ItemCommitted sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action(London : Nature Publishing Group, 2018) Mengel, M.; Nauels, A.; Rogelj, J.; Schleussner, C.-F.Sea-level rise is a major consequence of climate change that will continue long after emissions of greenhouse gases have stopped. The 2015 Paris Agreement aims at reducing climate-related risks by reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero and limiting global-mean temperature increase. Here we quantify the effect of these constraints on global sea-level rise until 2300, including Antarctic ice-sheet instabilities. We estimate median sea-level rise between 0.7 and 1.2 m, if net-zero greenhouse gas emissions are sustained until 2300, varying with the pathway of emissions during this century. Temperature stabilization below 2 °C is insufficient to hold median sea-level rise until 2300 below 1.5 m. We find that each 5-year delay in near-term peaking of CO2 emissions increases median year 2300 sea-level rise estimates by ca. 0.2 m, and extreme sea-level rise estimates at the 95th percentile by up to 1 m. Our results underline the importance of near-term mitigation action for limiting long-term sea-level rise risks.
- ItemClimate analogues suggest limited potential for intensification of production on current croplands under climate change(London : Nature Publishing Group, 2016) Pugh, T.A.M.; Müller, C.; Elliott, J.; Deryng, D.; Folberth, C.; Olin, S.; Schmid, E.; Arneth, A.
- ItemUnderstanding the origin of Paris Agreement emission uncertainties(London : Nature Publishing Group, 2017) Rogelj, J.; Fricko, O.; Meinshausen, M.; Krey, V.; Zilliacus, J.J.J.; Riahi, K.The UN Paris Agreement puts in place a legally binding mechanism to increase mitigation action over time. Countries put forward pledges called nationally determined contributions (NDC) whose impact is assessed in global stocktaking exercises. Subsequently, actions can then be strengthened in light of the Paris climate objective: Limiting global mean temperature increase to well below 2 °C and pursuing efforts to limit it further to 1.5 °C. However, pledged actions are currently described ambiguously and this complicates the global stocktaking exercise. Here, we systematically explore possible interpretations of NDC assumptions, and show that this results in estimated emissions for 2030 ranging from 47 to 63 GtCO2e yr-1. We show that this uncertainty has critical implications for the feasibility and cost to limit warming well below 2 °C and further to 1.5 °C. Countries are currently working towards clarifying the modalities of future NDCs. We identify salient avenues to reduce the overall uncertainty by about 10 percentage points through simple, technical clarifications regarding energy accounting rules. Remaining uncertainties depend to a large extent on politically valid choices about how NDCs are expressed, and therefore raise the importance of a thorough and robust process that keeps track of where emissions are heading over time.
- ItemCap-and-trade of water rights: A sustainable way out of Australia's rural water problems?(München : Oekom - Gesellschaft fuer Oekologische Kommunikation mbH, 2014) Burdack, D.; Biewald, A.; Lotze-Campen, H.Trading water rights is a tool for re-allocation of water resources in water-scarce regions such as Australia. Tradable water rights help farmers to act flexibly when facing high fluctuations in water availability and to use the water in a sustainable and environmentally friendly manner. A precondition is that the quantity of water rights is capped at an appropriate level. The institutional arrangements and market structures in which water-right trading is embedded are key factors for the success of such water management instruments. By analysing the structure of the water-right market and water caps as well as using results from explorative expert interviews, the article sheds light on potential problems with the Australian cap-and-trade scheme concerning sustainable water usage. It also asks whether the Australian scheme provides lessons to be learnt by other countries facing similar problems.
- ItemWelfare with or without growth?: Do we need to reduce economic activity to protect the environment and increase the quality of life?(München : Oekom - Gesellschaft fuer Oekologische Kommunikation mbH, 2015) Jakob, M.; Edenhofer, O.
- ItemEvaluation of ecological criteria of biofuel certification in Germany(Basel : MDPI AG, 2016) Selbmann, K.; Pforte, L.