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- ItemWhat can we learn from the projections of changes of flow patterns? Results from Polish case studies(Heidelberg : Springer, 2017) Piniewski, Mikołaj; Meresa, Hadush Kidane; Romanowicz, Renata; Osuch, Marzena; Szczes´niak, Mateusz; Kardel, Ignacy; Okruszko, Tomasz; Mezghani, Abdelkader; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.River flow projections for two future time horizons and RCP 8.5 scenario, generated by two projects (CHASE-PL and CHIHE) in the Polish-Norwegian Research Programme, were compared. The projects employed different hydrological models over different spatial domains. The semi-distributed, process-based, SWAT model was used in the CHASE-PL project for the entire Vistula and Odra basins area, whilst the lumped, conceptual, HBV model was used in the CHIHE project for eight Polish catchments, for which the comparison study was made. Climate projections in both studies originated from the common EURO-CORDEX dataset, but they were different, e.g. due to different bias correction approaches. Increases in mean annual and seasonal flows were projected in both studies, yet the magnitudes of changes were largely different, in particular for the lowland catchments in the far future. The HBV-based increases were significantly higher in the latter case than the SWAT-based increases in all seasons except winter. Uncertainty in projections is high and creates a problem for practitioners.
- ItemAssessment of climate change and associated impact on selected sectors in Poland(Warsaw : De Gruyter Open, 2018) Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.; Piniewski, Mikołaj; Mezghani, Abdelkader; Okruszko, Tomasz; Pińskwar, Iwona; Kardel, Ignacy; Hov, Øystein; Szcześniak, Mateusz; Szwed, Małgorzata; Benestad, Rasmus E.; Marcinkowski, Paweł; Graczyk, Dariusz; Dobler, Andreas; Førland, Eirik J.; O’Keefe, Joanna; Choryński, Adam; Parding, Kajsa M.; Haugen, Jan ErikThe present paper offers a brief assessment of climate change and associated impact in Poland, based on selected results of the Polish–Norwegian CHASE-PL project. Impacts are examined in selected sectors, such as water resources, natural hazard risk reduction, environment, agriculture and health. Results of change detection in long time series of observed climate and climate impact variables in Poland are presented. Also, projections of climate variability and change are provided for time horizons of 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 for two emission scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in comparison with control period, 1971–2000. Based on climate projections, examination of future impacts on sectors is also carried out. Selected uncertainty issues relevant to observations, understanding and projections are tackled as well.
- ItemTemperature-related mortality impacts under and beyond Paris Agreement climate change scenarios(Dordrecht [u.a.] : Springer, 2018) Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Guo, Yuming; Sera, Francesco; Huber, Veronika; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Mitchell, Dann; Tong, Shilu; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline; Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento; Lavigne, Eric; Matus Correa, Patricia; Valdes Ortega, Nicolas; Kan, Haidong; Osorio, Samuel; Kyselý, Jan; Urban, Aleš; Jaakkola, Jouni J. K.; Ryti, Niilo R. I.; Pascal, Mathilde; Goodman, Patrick G.; Zeka, Ariana; Michelozzi, Paola; Scortichini, Matteo; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Hurtado-Diaz, Magali; Cruz, Julio; Seposo, Xerxes; Kim, Ho; Tobias, Aurelio; Íñiguez, Carmen; Forsberg, Bertil; Åström, Daniel Oudin; Ragettli, Martina S.; Röösli, Martin; Guo, Yue Leon; Wu, Chang-fu; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel; Bell, Michelle L.; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Do Van, Dung; Heaviside, Clare; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Hajat, Shakoor; Haines, Andy; Armstrong, Ben; Ebi, Kristie L.; Gasparrini, AntonioThe Paris Agreement binds all nations to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change, with the commitment to “hold warming well below 2 °C in global mean temperature (GMT), relative to pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C”. The 1.5 °C limit constitutes an ambitious goal for which greater evidence on its benefits for health would help guide policy and potentially increase the motivation for action. Here we contribute to this gap with an assessment on the potential health benefits, in terms of reductions in temperature-related mortality, derived from the compliance to the agreed temperature targets, compared to more extreme warming scenarios. We performed a multi-region analysis in 451 locations in 23 countries with different climate zones, and evaluated changes in heat and cold-related mortality under scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement targets (1.5 and 2 °C) and more extreme GMT increases (3 and 4 °C), and under the assumption of no changes in demographic distribution and vulnerability. Our results suggest that limiting warming below 2 °C could prevent large increases in temperature-related mortality in most regions worldwide. The comparison between 1.5 and 2 °C is more complex and characterized by higher uncertainty, with geographical differences that indicate potential benefits limited to areas located in warmer climates, where direct climate change impacts will be more discernible.
- ItemA new scenario framework for climate change research: The concept of shared socioeconomic pathways(Dordrecht [u.a.] : Springer, 2014) O'Neill, B.C.; Kriegler, E.; Riahi, K.; Ebi, K.L.; Hallegatte, S.; Carter, T.R.; Mathur, R.; van Vuuren, D.P.The new scenario framework for climate change research envisions combining pathways of future radiative forcing and their associated climate changes with alternative pathways of socioeconomic development in order to carry out research on climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation. Here we propose a conceptual framework for how to define and develop a set of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for use within the scenario framework. We define SSPs as reference pathways describing plausible alternative trends in the evolution of society and ecosystems over a century timescale, in the absence of climate change or climate policies. We introduce the concept of a space of challenges to adaptation and to mitigation that should be spanned by the SSPs, and discuss how particular trends in social, economic, and environmental development could be combined to produce such outcomes. A comparison to the narratives from the scenarios developed in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) illustrates how a starting point for developing SSPs can be defined. We suggest initial development of a set of basic SSPs that could then be extended to meet more specific purposes, and envision a process of application of basic and extended SSPs that would be iterative and potentially lead to modification of the original SSPs themselves.
- ItemClimate change in Afghanistan deduced from reanalysis and coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment (CORDEX)-South Asia simulations(Basel : MDPI, 2017) Aich, Valentin; Akhundzadah, Noor Ahmad; Knuerr, Alec; Khoshbeen, Ahmad Jamshed; Hattermann, Fred; Paeth, Heiko; Scanlon, Andrew; Paton, Eva NoraPast and the projected future climate change in Afghanistan has been analyzed systematically and differentiated with respect to its different climate regions to gain some first quantitative insights into Afghanistan’s vulnerability to ongoing and future climate changes. For this purpose, temperature, precipitation and five additional climate indices for extremes and agriculture assessments (heavy precipitation; spring precipitation; growing season length (GSL), the Heat Wave Magnitude Index (HWMI); and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)) from the reanalysis data were examined for their consistency to identify changes in the past (data since 1950). For future changes (up to the year 2100), the same parameters were extracted from an ensemble of 12 downscaled regional climate models (RCM) of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)-South Asia simulations for low and high emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5). In the past, the climatic changes were mainly characterized by a mean temperature increase above global level of 1.8 °C from 1950 to 2010; uncertainty with regard to reanalyzed rainfall data limited a thorough analysis of past changes. Climate models projected the temperature trend to accelerate in the future, depending strongly on the global carbon emissions (2006–2050 Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5/8.5: 1.7/2.3 °C; 2006–2099: 2.7/6.4 °C, respectively). Despite the high uncertainty with regard to precipitation projections, it became apparent that the increasing evapotranspiration is likely to exacerbate Afghanistan’s already existing water stress, including a very strong increase of frequency and magnitude of heat waves. Overall, the results show that in addition to the already extensive deficiency in adaptation to current climate conditions, the situation will be aggravated in the future, particularly in regard to water management and agriculture. Thus, the results of this study underline the importance of adequate adaptation to climate change in Afghanistan. This is even truer taking into account that GSL is projected to increase substantially by around 20 days on average until 2050, which might open the opportunity for extended agricultural husbandry or even additional harvests when water resources are properly managed.
- ItemClimate Feedback on Aerosol Emission and Atmospheric Concentrations(Heidelberg : Springer, 2018) Tegen, Ina; Schepanski, KerstinPurpose of Review: Climate factors may considerably impact on natural aerosol emissions and atmospheric distributions. The interdependencies of processes within the aerosol-climate system may thus cause climate feedbacks that need to be understood. Recent findings on various major climate impacts on aerosol distributions are summarized in this review. Recent Findings: While generally atmospheric aerosol distributions are influenced by changes in precipitation, atmospheric mixing, and ventilation due to circulation changes, emissions from natural aerosol sources strongly depend on climate factors like wind speed, temperature, and vegetation. Aerosol sources affected by climate are desert sources of mineral dust, marine aerosol sources, and vegetation sources of biomass burning aerosol and biogenic volatile organic gases that are precursors for secondary aerosol formation. Different climate impacts on aerosol distributions may offset each other. Summary: In regions where anthropogenic aerosol loads decrease, the impacts of climate on natural aerosol variabilities will increase. Detailed knowledge of processes controlling aerosol concentrations is required for credible future projections of aerosol distributions.
- ItemThe impact of climate change and variability on the generation of electrical power(Stuttgart : Gebrueder Borntraeger Verlagsbuchhandlung, 2015) Koch, H.; Vögele, S.; Hattermann, F.F.; Huang, S.
- ItemUncertainty of biomass contributions from agriculture and forestry to renewable energy resources under climate change(Stuttgart : Gebrueder Borntraeger Verlagsbuchhandlung, 2015) Gutsch, M.; Lasch-Born, P.; Lüttger, A.B.; Suckow, F.; Murawski, A.; Pilz, T.
- ItemFarmers’ perspectives: Impact of climate change on African indigenous vegetable production in Kenya(Bingley : Emerald Group Publishing Ltd., 2018) Chepkoech, W.; Mungai, N.W.; Stöber, S.; Bett, H.K.; Lotze-Campen, H.Purpose: Understanding farmers’ perceptions of how the climate is changing is vital to anticipating its impacts. Farmers are known to take appropriate steps to adapt only when they perceive change to be taking place. This study aims to analyse how African indigenous vegetable (AIV) farmers perceive climate change in three different agro-climatic zones (ACZs) in Kenya, identify the main differences in historical seasonal and annual rainfall and temperature trends between the zones, discuss differences in farmers’ perceptions and historical trends and analyse the impact of these perceived changes and trends on yields, weeds, pests and disease infestation of AIVs. Design/methodology/approach: Data collection was undertaken in focus group discussions (FGD) (N = 211) and during interviews with individual farmers (N = 269). The Mann–Kendall test and regression were applied for trend analysis of time series data (1980-2014). Analysis of variance and least significant difference were used to test for differences in mean rainfall data, while a chi-square test examined the association between farmer perceptions and ACZs. Coefficient of variation expressed as a percentage was used to show variability in mean annual and seasonal rainfall between the zones. Findings: Farmers perceived that higher temperatures, decreased rainfall, late onset and early retreat of rain, erratic rainfall patterns and frequent dry spells were increasing the incidences of droughts and floods. The chi-square results showed a significant relationship between some of these perceptions and ACZs. Meteorological data provided some evidence to support farmers’ perceptions of changing rainfall. No trend was detected in mean annual rainfall, but a significant increase was recorded in the semi-humid zone. A decreasing maximum temperature was noted in the semi-humid zone, but otherwise, an overall increase was detected. There were highly significant differences in mean annual rainfall between the zones. Farmers perceived reduced yields and changes in pest infestation and diseases in some AIVs to be prevalent in the dry season. This study’s findings provide a basis for local and timely institutional changes, which could certainly help in reducing the adverse effects of climate change. Originality/value: This is an original research paper and the historical trends, farmers’ perceptions and effects of climate change on AIV production documented in this paper may also be representative of other ACZs in Kenya.
- ItemHydrological impacts of moderate and high-end climate change across European river basins(Amsterdam : Elsevier B.V., 2018) Lobanova, A.; Liersch, S.; Nunes, J.P.; Didovets, I.; Stagl, J.; Huang, S.; Koch, H.; Rivas López, M.D.R.; Maule, C.F.; Hattermann, F.; Krysanova, V.Study region: To provide a picture of hydrological impact of climate change across different climatic zones in Europe, this study considers eight river basins: Tagus in Iberian Peninsula; Emån and Lule in Scandinavia; Rhine, Danube and Teteriv in Central and Eastern Europe; Tay on the island of Great Britain and Northern Dvina in North-Eastern Europe. Study focus: In this study the assessment of the impacts of moderate and high-end climate change scenarios on the hydrological patterns in European basins was conducted. To assess the projected changes, the process-based eco-hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model) was set up, calibrated and validated for the basins. The SWIM was driven by the bias-corrected climate projections obtained from the coupled simulations of the Global Circulation Models and Regional Climate Models. New hydrological insights for the region: The results show robust decreasing trends in water availability in the most southern river basin (Tagus), an overall increase in discharge in the most northern river basin (Lule), increase in the winter discharge and shift in seasonality in Northern and Central European catchments. The impacts of the high-end climate change scenario RCP 8.5 continue to develop until the end of the century, while those of the moderate climate change scenario RCP 4.5 level-off after the mid-century. The results of this study also confirm trends, found previously with mostly global scale models.