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- ItemTrend detection in river flow indices in Poland(Heidelberg : Springer, 2018) Piniewski, Mikołaj; Marcinkowski, Paweł; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.The issue of trend detection in long time series of river flow records is of vast theoretical interest and considerable practical relevance. Water management is based on the assumption of stationarity; hence, it is crucial to check whether taking this assumption is justified. The objective of this study is to analyse long-term trends in selected river flow indices in small- and medium-sized catchments with relatively unmodified flow regime (semi-natural catchments) in Poland. The examined indices describe annual and seasonal average conditions as well as annual extreme conditions—low and high flows. The special focus is on the spatial analysis of trends, carried out on a comprehensive, representative data set of flow gauges. The present paper is timely, as no spatially comprehensive studies (i.e. covering the entire Poland or its large parts) on trend detection in time series of river flow have been done in the recent 15 years or so. The results suggest that there is a strong random component in the river flow process, the changes are weak and the spatial pattern is complex. Yet, the results of trend detection in different indices of river flow in Poland show that there exists a spatial divide that seems to hold quite generally for various indices (annual, seasonal, as well as low and high flow). Decreases of river flow dominate in the northern part of the country and increases usually in the southern part. Stations in the central part show mostly ‘no trend’ results. However, the spatial gradient is apparent only for the data for the period 1981–2016 rather than for 1956–2016. It seems also that the magnitude of increases of river flow is generally lower than that of decreases.
- ItemHigh-resolution vertical velocities and their power spectrum observed with the MAARSY radar – Part 1: frequency spectrum(Katlenburg, Lindau : Copernicus, 2018-4-3) Li, Qiang; Rapp, Markus; Stober, Gunter; Latteck, RalphThe Middle Atmosphere Alomar Radar System (MAARSY) installed at the island of Andøya has been run for continuous probing of atmospheric winds in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) region. In the current study, we present high-resolution wind measurements during the period between 2010 and 2013 with MAARSY. The spectral analysis applying the Lomb–Scargle periodogram method has been carried out to determine the frequency spectra of vertical wind velocity. From a total of 522 days of observations, the statistics of the spectral slope have been derived and show a dependence on the background wind conditions. It is a general feature that the observed spectra of vertical velocity during active periods (with wind velocity > 10 m s−1) are much steeper than during quiet periods (with wind velocity < 10 m s−1). The distribution of spectral slopes is roughly symmetric with a maximum at −5/3 during active periods, whereas a very asymmetric distribution with a maximum at around −1 is observed during quiet periods. The slope profiles along altitudes reveal a significant height dependence for both conditions, i.e., the spectra become shallower with increasing altitudes in the upper troposphere and maintain roughly a constant slope in the lower stratosphere. With both wind conditions considered together the general spectra are obtained and their slopes are compared with the background horizontal winds. The comparisons show that the observed spectra become steeper with increasing wind velocities under quiet conditions, approach a spectral slope of −5/3 at a wind velocity of 10 m s−1 and then roughly maintain this slope (−5/3) for even stronger winds. Our findings show an overall agreement with previous studies; furthermore, they provide a more complete climatology of frequency spectra of vertical wind velocities under different wind conditions.
- ItemAssessment of climate change and associated impact on selected sectors in Poland(Warsaw : De Gruyter Open, 2018) Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.; Piniewski, Mikołaj; Mezghani, Abdelkader; Okruszko, Tomasz; Pińskwar, Iwona; Kardel, Ignacy; Hov, Øystein; Szcześniak, Mateusz; Szwed, Małgorzata; Benestad, Rasmus E.; Marcinkowski, Paweł; Graczyk, Dariusz; Dobler, Andreas; Førland, Eirik J.; O’Keefe, Joanna; Choryński, Adam; Parding, Kajsa M.; Haugen, Jan ErikThe present paper offers a brief assessment of climate change and associated impact in Poland, based on selected results of the Polish–Norwegian CHASE-PL project. Impacts are examined in selected sectors, such as water resources, natural hazard risk reduction, environment, agriculture and health. Results of change detection in long time series of observed climate and climate impact variables in Poland are presented. Also, projections of climate variability and change are provided for time horizons of 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 for two emission scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in comparison with control period, 1971–2000. Based on climate projections, examination of future impacts on sectors is also carried out. Selected uncertainty issues relevant to observations, understanding and projections are tackled as well.
- ItemPhotocurrent modelling and experimental confirmation for meteoric smoke particle detectors on board atmospheric sounding rockets(Katlenburg-Lindau : Copernicus, 2018-9-20) Giono, Gabriel; Strelnikov, Boris; Asmus, Heiner; Staszak, Tristan; Ivchenko, Nickolay; Lübken, Franz-JosefCharacterising the photoelectron current induced by the Sun's UV radiation is crucial to ensure accurate daylight measurements from particle detectors. This article lays out the methodology used to address this problem in the case of the meteoric smoke particle detectors (MSPDs), developed by the Leibniz Institute of Atmospheric Physics in Kühlungsborn (IAP) and flown on board the PMWEs (Polar Mesosphere Winter Echoes) sounding rockets in April 2018. The methodology focuses on two complementary aspects: modelling and experimental measurements. A detailed model of the MSPD photocurrent was created based on the expected solar UV flux, the atmospheric UV absorption as a function of height by molecular oxygen and ozone, the photoelectric yield of the material coating the MSPD as a function of wavelength, the index of refraction of these materials as a function of wavelength and the angle of incidence of the illumination onto the MSPD. Due to its complex structure, composed of a central electrode shielded by two concentric grids, extensive ray-tracing calculations were conducted to obtain the incidence angles of the illumination on the central electrode, and this was done for various orientations of the MSPD in respect to the Sun. Results of the modelled photocurrent at different heights and for different materials, as well as for different orientations of the detector, are presented. As a pre-flight confirmation, the model was used to reproduce the experimental measurements conducted by Robertson et al. (2014) and agrees within an order of magnitude. An experimental setup for the calibration of the MSPD photocurrent is also presented. The photocurrent induced by the Lyman-alpha line from a deuterium lamp was recorded inside a vacuum chamber using a narrowband filter, while a UV-sensitive photodiode was used to monitor the UV flux. These measurements were compared with the model prediction, and also matched within an order of magnitude. Although precisely modelling the photocurrent is a challenging task, this article quantitatively improved the understanding of the photocurrent on the MSPD and discusses possible strategies to untangle the meteoric smoke particles (MSPs) current from the photocurrent recorded in-flight.
- ItemMeasurements of aerosol and CCN properties in the Mackenzie River delta (Canadian Arctic) during spring-summer transition in May 2014(Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2018) Herenz, Paul; Wex, Heike; Henning, Silvia; Kristensen, Thomas Bjerring; Rubach, Florian; Roth, Anja; Borrmann, Stephan; Bozem, Heiko; Schulz, Hannes; Stratmann, FrankWithin the framework of the RACEPAC (Radiation-Aerosol-Cloud Experiment in the Arctic Circle) project, the Arctic aerosol, arriving at a ground-based station in Tuktoyaktuk (Mackenzie River delta area, Canada), was characterized during a period of 3 weeks in May 2014. Basic meteorological parameters and particle number size distributions (PNSDs) were observed and two distinct types of air masses were found. One type were typical Arctic haze air masses, termed accumulation-type air masses, characterized by a monomodal PNSD with a pronounced accumulation mode at sizes above 100 nm. These air masses were observed during a period when back trajectories indicate an air mass origin in the north-east of Canada. The other air mass type is characterized by a bimodal PNSD with a clear minimum around 90ĝ€†nm and with an Aitken mode consisting of freshly formed aerosol particles. Back trajectories indicate that these air masses, termed Aitken-type air masses, originated from the North Pacific. In addition, the application of the PSCF receptor model shows that air masses with their origin in active fire areas in central Canada and Siberia, in areas of industrial anthropogenic pollution (Norilsk and Prudhoe Bay Oil Field) and the north-west Pacific have enhanced total particle number concentrations (N CN). Generally, N CN ranged from 20 to 500 cmg'3, while cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) number concentrations were found to cover a range from less than 10 up to 250 cmg'3 for a supersaturation (SS) between 0.1 and 0.7 %. The hygroscopicity parameter of the CCN was determined to be 0.23 on average and variations in were largely attributed to measurement uncertainties.
Furthermore, simultaneous PNSD measurements at the ground station and on the Polar 6 research aircraft were performed. We found a good agreement of ground-based PNSDs with those measured between 200 and 1200 m. During two of the four overflights, particle number concentrations at 3000 m were found to be up to 20 times higher than those measured below 2000 m; for one of these two flights, PNSDs measured above 2000 m showed a different shape than those measured at lower altitudes. This is indicative of long-range transport from lower latitudes into the Arctic that can advect aerosol from different regions in different heights. - ItemVertical profiles of aerosol mass concentration derived by unmanned airborne in situ and remote sensing instruments during dust events(Katlenburg-Lindau : Copernicus, 2018) Mamali, Dimitra; Marinou, Eleni; Sciare, Jean; Pikridas, Michael; Kokkalis, Panagiotis; Kottas, Michael; Binietoglou, Ioannis; Tsekeri, Alexandra; Keleshis, Christos; Engelmann, Ronny; Baars, Holger; Ansmann, Albert; Amiridis, Vassilis; Russchenberg, Herman; Biskos, GeorgeIn situ measurements using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and remote sensing observations can independently provide dense vertically resolved measurements of atmospheric aerosols, information which is strongly required in climate models. In both cases, inverting the recorded signals to useful information requires assumptions and constraints, and this can make the comparison of the results difficult. Here we compare, for the first time, vertical profiles of the aerosol mass concentration derived from light detection and ranging (lidar) observations and in situ measurements using an optical particle counter on board a UAV during moderate and weak Saharan dust episodes. Agreement between the two measurement methods was within experimental uncertainty for the coarse mode (i.e. particles having radii > 0.5 μm), where the properties of dust particles can be assumed with good accuracy. This result proves that the two techniques can be used interchangeably for determining the vertical profiles of aerosol concentrations, bringing them a step closer towards their systematic exploitation in climate models.
- ItemA new model of meteoric calcium in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere(Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2018-10-16) Plane, John M. C.; Feng, Wuhu; Gómez Martín, Juan Carlos; Gerding, Michael; Raizada, ShikhaMeteoric ablation produces layers of metal atoms in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT). It has been known for more than 30 years that the Ca atom layer is depleted by over 2 orders of magnitude compared with Na, despite these elements having nearly the same elemental abundance in chondritic meteorites. In contrast, the Ca+ ion abundance is depleted by less than a factor of 10. To explain these observations, a large database of neutral and ion–molecule reaction kinetics of Ca species, measured over the past decade, was incorporated into the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). A new meteoric input function for Ca and Na, derived using a chemical ablation model that has been tested experimentally with a Meteoric Ablation Simulator, shows that Ca ablates almost 1 order of magnitude less efficiently than Na. WACCM-Ca simulates the seasonal Ca layer satisfactorily when compared with lidar observations, but tends to overestimate Ca+ measurements made by rocket mass spectrometry and lidar. A key finding is that CaOH and CaCO3 are very stable reservoir species because they are involved in essentially closed reaction cycles with O2 and O. This has been demonstrated experimentally for CaOH, and in this study for CaCO3 using electronic structure and statistical rate theory. Most of the neutral Ca is therefore locked in these reservoirs, enabling rapid loss through polymerization into meteoric smoke particles, and this explains the extreme depletion of Ca.
- ItemIce-nucleating particle concentrations unaffected by urban air pollution in Beijing, China(Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2018) Chen, Jie; Wu, Zhijun; Augustin-Bauditz, Stefanie; Grawe, Sarah; Hartmann, Markus; Pei, Xiangyu; Liu, Zirui; Ji, Dongsheng; Wex, HeikeExceedingly high levels of PM2.5 with complex chemical composition occur frequently in China. It has been speculated whether anthropogenic PM2.5 may significantly contribute to ice-nucleating particles (INP). However, few studies have focused on the ice-nucleating properties of urban particles. In this work, two ice-nucleating droplet arrays have been used to determine the atmospheric number concentration of INP (NINP) in the range from -6 to -25 °C in Beijing. No correlations between NINP and either PM2.5 or black carbon mass concentrations were found, although both varied by more than a factor of 30 during the sampling period. Similarly, there were no correlations between NINP and either total particle number concentration or number concentrations for particles with diameters > 500 nm. Furthermore, there was no clear difference between day and night samples. All these results indicate that Beijing air pollution did not increase or decrease INP concentrations in the examined temperature range above values observed in nonurban areas; hence, the background INP concentrations might not be anthropogenically influenced as far as urban air pollution is concerned, at least in the examined temperature range.
- ItemFootprint-weighted tile approach for a spruce forest and a nearby patchy clearing using the ACASA model(Katlenburg-Lindau [u.a.] : Copernicus, 2018) Gatzsche, Kathrin; Babel, Wolfgang; Falge, Eva; Pyles, Rex David; Paw U., Kyaw Tha; Raabe, Armin; Foken, ThomasThe ACASA (Advanced Canopy-Atmosphere-Soil Algorithm) model, with a higher-order closure for tall vegetation, has already been successfully tested and validated for homogeneous spruce forests. The aim of this paper is to test the model using a footprint-weighted tile approach for a clearing with a heterogeneous structure of the underlying surface. The comparison with flux data shows a good agreement with a footprint-aggregated tile approach of the model. However, the results of a comparison with a tile approach on the basis of the mean land use classification of the clearing is not significantly different. It is assumed that the footprint model is not accurate enough to separate small-scale heterogeneities. All measured fluxes are corrected by forcing the energy balance closure of the test data either by maintaining the measured Bowen ratio or by the attribution of the residual depending on the fractions of sensible and latent heat flux to the buoyancy flux. The comparison with the model, in which the energy balance is closed, shows that the buoyancy correction for Bowen ratios > 1.5 better fits the measured data. For lower Bowen ratios, the correction probably lies between the two methods, but the amount of available data was too small to make a conclusion. With an assumption of similarity between water and carbon dioxide fluxes, no correction of the net ecosystem exchange is necessary for Bowen ratios > 1.5.
- ItemCalibration of Raman lidar water vapor profiles by means of AERONET photometer observations and GDAS meteorological data(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2018) Dai, Guangyao; Althausen, Dietrich; Hofer, Julian; Engelmann, Ronny; Seifert, Patric; Bühl, Johannes; Mamouri, Rodanthi-Elisavet; Wu, Songhua; Ansmann, AlbertWe present a practical method to continuously calibrate Raman lidar observations of water vapor mixing ratio profiles. The water vapor profile measured with the multiwavelength polarization Raman lidar PollyXT is calibrated by means of co-located AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) sun photometer observations and Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) temperature and pressure profiles. This method is applied to lidar observations conducted during the Cyprus Cloud Aerosol and Rain Experiment (CyCARE) in Limassol, Cyprus. We use the GDAS temperature and pressure profiles to retrieve the water vapor density. In the next step, the precipitable water vapor from the lidar observations is used for the calibration of the lidar measurements with the sun photometer measurements. The retrieved calibrated water vapor mixing ratio from the lidar measurements has a relative uncertainty of 11 % in which the error is mainly caused by the error of the sun photometer measurements. During CyCARE, nine measurement cases with cloud-free and stable meteorological conditions are selected to calculate the precipitable water vapor from the lidar and the sun photometer observations. The ratio of these two precipitable water vapor values yields the water vapor calibration constant. The calibration constant for the PollyXT Raman lidar is 6.56 g kg−1 ± 0.72 g kg−1 (with a statistical uncertainty of 0.08 g kg−1 and an instrumental uncertainty of 0.72 g kg−1). To check the quality of the water vapor calibration, the water vapor mixing ratio profiles from the simultaneous nighttime observations with Raman lidar and Vaisala radiosonde sounding are compared. The correlation of the water vapor mixing ratios from these two instruments is determined by using all of the 19 simultaneous nighttime measurements during CyCARE. Excellent agreement with the slope of 1.01 and the R2 of 0.99 is found. One example is presented to demonstrate the full potential of a well-calibrated Raman lidar. The relative humidity profiles from lidar, GDAS (simulation) and radiosonde are compared, too. It is found that the combination of water vapor mixing ratio and GDAS temperature profiles allow us to derive relative humidity profiles with the relative uncertainty of 10–20 %.