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End date: 2018 × Start date: 2018 × Subject: midlatitude environment ×

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    The influence of Arctic amplification on mid-latitude summer circulation
    ([London] : Nature Publishing Group UK, 2018) Coumou, D.; Di Capua, G.; Vavrus, S.; Wang, L.; Wang, S.
    Accelerated warming in the Arctic, as compared to the rest of the globe, might have profound impacts on mid-latitude weather. Most studies analyzing Arctic links to mid-latitude weather focused on winter, yet recent summers have seen strong reductions in sea-ice extent and snow cover, a weakened equator-to-pole thermal gradient and associated weakening of the mid-latitude circulation. We review the scientific evidence behind three leading hypotheses on the influence of Arctic changes on mid-latitude summer weather: Weakened storm tracks, shifted jet streams, and amplified quasi-stationary waves. We show that interactions between Arctic teleconnections and other remote and regional feedback processes could lead to more persistent hot-dry extremes in the mid-latitudes. The exact nature of these non-linear interactions is not well quantified but they provide potential high-impact risks for society.
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    Simultaneous observations of NLCs and MSEs at midlatitudes: Implications for formation and advection of ice particles
    (Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2018) Gerding, M.; Zöllner, J.; Zecha, M.; Baumgarten, K.; Höffner, J.; Stober, G.; Lübken, F.-J.
    We combined ground-based lidar observations of noctilucent clouds (NLCs) with collocated, simultaneous radar observations of mesospheric summer echoes (MSEs) in order to compare ice cloud altitudes at a midlatitude site (Kühlungsborn, Germany, 54° N, 12° E). Lidar observations are limited to larger particles ( > 10 nm), while radars are also sensitive to small particles ( < 10 nm), but require sufficient ionization and turbulence at the ice cloud altitudes. The combined lidar and radar data set thus includes some information on the size distribution within the cloud and through this on the of the cloud. The soundings for this study are carried out by the IAP Rayleigh-Mie-Raman (RMR) lidar and the OSWIN VHF radar. On average, there is no difference between the lower edges (lowNLC and lowMSE). The mean difference of the upper edges upNLC and upMSE is g1/4 500 m, which is much less than expected from observations at higher latitudes. In contrast to high latitudes, the MSEs above our location typically do not reach much higher than the NLCs. In addition to earlier studies from our site, this gives additional evidence for the supposition that clouds containing large enough particles to be observed by lidar are not formed locally but are advected from higher latitudes. During the advection process, the smaller particles in the upper part of the cloud either grow and sediment, or they sublimate. Both processes result in a thinning of the layer. High-altitude MSEs, usually indicating nucleation of ice particles, are rarely observed in conjunction with lidar observations of NLCs at Kühlungsborn. © Author(s) 2018.
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    The different stratospheric influence on cold-extremes in Eurasia and North America
    (London : Springer Nature, 2018) Kretschmer, Marlene; Cohen, Judah; Matthias, Vivien; Runge, Jakob; Coumou, Dim
    The stratospheric polar vortex can influence the tropospheric circulation and thereby winter weather in the mid-latitudes. Weak vortex states, often associated with sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW), have been shown to increase the risk of cold-spells especially over Eurasia, but its role for North American winters is less clear. Using cluster analysis, we show that there are two dominant patterns of increased polar cap heights in the lower stratosphere. Both patterns represent a weak polar vortex but they are associated with different wave mechanisms and different regional tropospheric impacts. The first pattern is zonally symmetric and associated with absorbed upward-propagating wave activity, leading to a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and cold-air outbreaks over northern Eurasia. This coupling mechanism is well-documented in the literature and is consistent with the downward migration of the northern annular mode (NAM). The second pattern is zonally asymmetric and linked to downward reflected planetary waves over Canada followed by a negative phase of the Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO) and cold-spells in Central Canada and the Great Lakes region. Causal effect network (CEN) analyses confirm the atmospheric pathways associated with this asymmetric pattern. Moreover, our findings suggest the reflective mechanism to be sensitive to the exact region of upward wave-activity fluxes and to be state-dependent on the strength of the vortex. Identifying the causal pathways that operate on weekly to monthly timescales can pave the way for improved sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting of cold spells in the mid-latitudes.