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- ItemSALSA2.0: The sectional aerosol module of the aerosol-chemistry-climate model ECHAM6.3.0-HAM2.3-MOZ1.0(Katlenburg-Lindau : Copernicus, 2018) Kokkola, Harri; Kühn, Thomas; Laakso, Anton; Bergman, Tommi; Lehtinen, Kari E. J.; Mielonen, Tero; Arola, Antti; Stadtler, Scarlet; Korhonen, Hannele; Ferrachat, Sylvaine; Lohmann, Ulrike; Neubauer, David; Tegen, Ina; Siegenthaler-Le Drian, Colombe; Schultz, Martin G.; Bey, Isabelle; Stier, Philip; Daskalakis, Nikos; Heald, Colette L.; Romakkaniemi, SamiIn this paper, we present the implementation and evaluation of the aerosol microphysics module SALSA2.0 in the framework of the aerosol-chemistry-climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ. It is an alternative microphysics module to the default modal microphysics scheme M7 in ECHAM-HAMMOZ. The SALSA2.0 implementation within ECHAM-HAMMOZ is evaluated against observations of aerosol optical properties, aerosol mass, and size distributions, comparing also to the skill of the M7 implementation. The largest differences between the implementation of SALSA2.0 and M7 are in the methods used for calculating microphysical processes, i.e., nucleation, condensation, coagulation, and hydration. These differences in the microphysics are reflected in the results so that the largest differences between SALSA2.0 and M7 are evident over regions where the aerosol size distribution is heavily modified by the microphysical processing of aerosol particles. Such regions are, for example, highly polluted regions and regions strongly affected by biomass burning. In addition, in a simulation of the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption in which a stratospheric sulfate plume was formed, the global burden and the effective radii of the stratospheric aerosol are very different in SALSA2.0 and M7. While SALSA2.0 was able to reproduce the observed time evolution of the global burden of sulfate and the effective radii of stratospheric aerosol, M7 strongly overestimates the removal of coarse stratospheric particles and thus underestimates the effective radius of stratospheric aerosol. As the mode widths of M7 have been optimized for the troposphere and were not designed to represent stratospheric aerosol, the ability of M7 to simulate the volcano plume was improved by modifying the mode widths, decreasing the standard deviations of the accumulation and coarse modes from 1.59 and 2.0, respectively, to 1.2 similar to what was observed after the Mt. Pinatubo eruption. Overall, SALSA2.0 shows promise in improving the aerosol description of ECHAM-HAMMOZ and can be further improved by implementing methods for aerosol processes that are more suitable for the sectional method, e.g., size-dependent emissions for aerosol species and size-resolved wet deposition.
- ItemA generic pixel-to-point comparison for simulated large-scale ecosystem properties and ground-based observations: An example from the Amazon region(Katlenburg-Lindau : Copernicus, 2018) Rammig, Anja; Heinke, Jens; Hofhansl, Florian; Verbeeck, Hans; Baker, Timothy R.; Christoffersen, Bradley; Ciais, Philippe; De Deurwaerder, Hannes; Fleischer, Katrin; Galbraith, David; Guimberteau, Matthieu; Huth, Andreas; Johnson, Michelle; Krujit, Bart; Langerwisch, Fanny; Meir, Patrick; Papastefanou, Phillip; Sampaio, Gilvan; Thonicke, Kirsten; von Randow, Celso; Zang, Christian; Rödig, EdnaComparing model output and observed data is an important step for assessing model performance and quality of simulation results. However, such comparisons are often hampered by differences in spatial scales between local point observations and large-scale simulations of grid cells or pixels. In this study, we propose a generic approach for a pixel-to-point comparison and provide statistical measures accounting for the uncertainty resulting from landscape variability and measurement errors in ecosystem variables. The basic concept of our approach is to determine the statistical properties of small-scale (within-pixel) variability and observational errors, and to use this information to correct for their effect when large-scale area averages (pixel) are compared to small-scale point estimates. We demonstrate our approach by comparing simulated values of aboveground biomass, woody productivity (woody net primary productivity, NPP) and residence time of woody biomass from four dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) with measured inventory data from permanent plots in the Amazon rainforest, a region with the typical problem of low data availability, potential scale mismatch and thus high model uncertainty. We find that the DGVMs under- and overestimate aboveground biomass by 25% and up to 60%, respectively. Our comparison metrics provide a quantitative measure for model-data agreement and show moderate to good agreement with the region-wide spatial biomass pattern detected by plot observations. However, all four DGVMs overestimate woody productivity and underestimate residence time of woody biomass even when accounting for the large uncertainty range of the observational data. This is because DGVMs do not represent the relation between productivity and residence time of woody biomass correctly. Thus, the DGVMs may simulate the correct large-scale patterns of biomass but for the wrong reasons. We conclude that more information about the underlying processes driving biomass distribution are necessary to improve DGVMs. Our approach provides robust statistical measures for any pixel-to-point comparison, which is applicable for evaluation of models and remote-sensing products.
- ItemA protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios(Katlenburg-Lindau : Copernicus, 2018) Kim, HyeJin; Rosa, Isabel M. D.; Alkemade, Rob; Leadley, Paul; Hurtt, George; Popp, Alexander; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Anthoni, Peter; Arneth, Almut; Baisero, Daniele; Caton, Emma; Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca; Chini, Louise; De Palma, Adriana; Di Fulvio, Fulvio; Di Marco, Moreno; Espinoza, Felipe; Ferrier, Simon; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Gonzalez, Ricardo E.; Gueguen, Maya; Guerra, Carlos; Harfoot, Mike; Harwood, Thomas D.; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Haverd, Vanessa; Havlík, Petr; Hellweg, Stefanie; Hill, Samantha L. L.; Hirata, Akiko; Hoskins, Andrew J.; Janse, Jan H.; Jetz, Walter; Johnson, Justin A.; Krause, Andreas; Leclère, David; Martins, Ines S.; Matsui, Tetsuya; Merow, Cory; Obersteiner, Michael; Ohashi, Haruka; Poulter, Benjamin; Purvis, Andy; Quesada, Benjamin; Rondinini, Carlo; Schipper, Aafke M.; Sharp, Richard; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Thuiller, Wilfried; Titeux, Nicolas; Visconti, Piero; Ware, Christopher; Wolf, Florian; Pereira, Henrique M.To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts of land-use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services (i.e., nature's contributions to people) over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century, using a set of common metrics at multiple scales, and (2) to identify model uncertainties and research gaps through the comparisons of projected biodiversity and ecosystem services across models. BES-SIM uses three scenarios combining specific Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)-SSP1xRCP2.6, SSP3xRCP6.0, SSP5xRCP8.6-to explore a wide range of land-use change and climate change futures. This paper describes the rationale for scenario selection, the process of harmonizing input data for land use, based on the second phase of the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2), and climate, the biodiversity and ecosystem services models used, the core simulations carried out, the harmonization of the model output metrics, and the treatment of uncertainty. The results of this collaborative modeling project will support the ongoing global assessment of IPBES, strengthen ties between IPBES and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and modeling processes, advise the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) on its development of a post-2020 strategic plans and conservation goals, and inform the development of a new generation of nature-centred scenarios.
- ItemImplementation of aerosol-cloud interactions in the regional atmosphere-aerosol model COSMO-Muscat(5.0) and evaluation using satellite data(Katlenburg-Lindau : Copernicus, 2017) Dipu, Sudhakar; Quaas, Johannes; Wolke, Ralf; Stoll, Jens; Mühlbauer, Andreas; Sourdeval, Odran; Salzmann, Marc; Heinold, Bernd; Tegen, InaThe regional atmospheric model Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (COSMO) coupled to the Multi-Scale Chemistry Aerosol Transport model (Muscat) is extended in this work to represent aerosol-cloud interactions. Previously, only one-way interactions (scavenging of aerosol and in-cloud chemistry) and aerosol-radiation interactions were included in this model. The new version allows for a microphysical aerosol effect on clouds. For this, we use the optional two-moment cloud microphysical scheme in COSMO and the online-computed aerosol information for cloud condensation nuclei concentrations (Cccn), replacing the constant Cccn profile. In the radiation scheme, we have implemented a droplet-size-dependent cloud optical depth, allowing now for aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions. To evaluate the models with satellite data, the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project Observation Simulator Package (COSP) has been implemented. A case study has been carried out to understand the effects of the modifications, where the modified modeling system is applied over the European domain with a horizontal resolution of 0.25°g × g0.25°. To reduce the complexity in aerosol-cloud interactions, only warm-phase clouds are considered. We found that the online-coupled aerosol introduces significant changes for some cloud microphysical properties. The cloud effective radius shows an increase of 9.5g%, and the cloud droplet number concentration is reduced by 21.5g%.
- ItemCombined rock slope stability and shallow landslide susceptibility assessment of the Jasmund cliff area (Rügen Island, Germany)(Katlenburg-Lindau : European Geophysical Society, 2009-5-8) Günther, A.; Thiel, C.In this contribution we evaluated both the structurally-controlled failure susceptibility of the fractured Cretaceous chalk rocks and the topographically-controlled shallow landslide susceptibility of the overlying glacial sediments for the Jasmund cliff area on Rügen Island, Germany. We employed a combined methodology involving spatially distributed kinematical rock slope failure testing with tectonic fabric data, and both physically- and inventory-based shallow landslide susceptibility analysis. The rock slope failure susceptibility model identifies areas of recent cliff collapses, confirming its value in predicting the locations of future failures. The model reveals that toppling is the most important failure type in the Cretaceous chalk rocks of the area. The shallow landslide susceptibility analysis involves a physically-based slope stability evaluation which utilizes material strength and hydraulic conductivity data, and a bivariate landslide susceptibility analysis exploiting landslide inventory data and thematic information on ground conditioning factors. Both models show reasonable success rates when evaluated with the available inventory data, and an attempt was made to combine the individual models to prepare a map displaying both terrain instability and landslide susceptibility. This combination highlights unstable cliff portions lacking discrete landslide areas as well as cliff sections highly affected by past landslide events. Through a spatial integration of the rock slope failure susceptibility model with the combined shallow landslide assessment we produced a comprehensive landslide susceptibility map for the Jasmund cliff area.
- ItemStructural analysis of S-wave seismics around an urban sinkhole: evidence of enhanced dissolution in a strike-slip fault zone(Katlenburg-Lindau : European Geophysical Society, 2017-12-19) Wadas, Sonja H.; Tanner, David C.; Polom, Ulrich; Krawczyk, Charlotte M.In November 2010, a large sinkhole opened up in the urban area of Schmalkalden, Germany. To determine the key factors which benefited the development of this collapse structure and therefore the dissolution, we carried out several shear-wave reflection-seismic profiles around the sinkhole. In the seismic sections we see evidence of the Mesozoic tectonic movement in the form of a NW–SE striking, dextral strike-slip fault, known as the Heßleser Fault, which faulted and fractured the subsurface below the town. The strike-slip faulting created a zone of small blocks ( < 100 m in size), around which steep-dipping normal faults, reverse faults and a dense fracture network serve as fluid pathways for the artesian-confined groundwater. The faults also acted as barriers for horizontal groundwater flow perpendicular to the fault planes. Instead groundwater flows along the faults which serve as conduits and forms cavities in the Permian deposits below ca. 60 m depth. Mass movements and the resulting cavities lead to the formation of sinkholes and dissolution-induced depressions. Since the processes are still ongoing, the occurrence of a new sinkhole cannot be ruled out. This case study demonstrates how S-wave seismics can characterize a sinkhole and, together with geological information, can be used to study the processes that result in sinkhole formation, such as a near-surface fault zone located in soluble rocks. The more complex the fault geometry and interaction between faults, the more prone an area is to sinkhole occurrence.
- ItemVariability of snow cover and frost depth at the Potsdam station, Germany(Praha : Česká geografická společnost, 2016) Szwed, Małgorzata; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.; Mezghani, AbdelkaderThe presented paper examines variability of characteristics of snow cover (snow cover depth, number of days with snow cover and dates of beginning and end of snow cover) and frost depth in Potsdam. The study makes use of a unique long time series of data from the secular meteorological station in Potsdam (Germany), covering the time interval from 1893 to date. The observed behaviour of time series of snow is complex, and not easy to interpret. Even if shrinking snow cover is typically expected in the warming climate of the moderate zone, the change in Potsdam is largely dominated by inter-winter and intra-winter variability, rendering trend detection difficult. Nevertheless, an increasing, statistically significant trend for winter precipitation was detected with almost no changes in the snow fall. A statistical link between the NAO index and the snow cover depth as well as the number of snow cover days was found.
- ItemImplementing the nitrogen cycle into the dynamic global vegetation, hydrology, and crop growth model LPJmL (version 5.0)(Katlenburg-Lindau : Copernicus, 2018) von Bloh, Werner; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Müller, Christoph; Rolinski, Susanne; Waha, Katharina; Zaehle, SönkeThe well-established dynamical global vegetation, hydrology, and crop growth model LPJmL is extended with a terrestrial nitrogen cycle to account for nutrient limitations. In particular, processes of soil nitrogen dynamics, plant uptake, nitrogen allocation, response of photosynthesis and maintenance respiration to varying nitrogen concentrations in plant organs, and agricultural nitrogen management are included in the model. All new model features are described in full detail and the results of a global simulation of the historic past (1901-2009) are presented for evaluation of the model performance. We find that the implementation of nitrogen limitation significantly improves the simulation of global patterns of crop productivity. Regional differences in crop productivity, which had to be calibrated via a scaling of the maximum leaf area index, can now largely be reproduced by the model, except for regions where fertilizer inputs and climate conditions are not the yield-limiting factors. Furthermore, it can be shown that land use has a strong influence on nitrogen losses, increasing leaching by 93 %.
- ItemGrounding-line flux formula applied as a flux condition in numerical simulations fails for buttressed Antarctic ice streams(Katlenburg-Lindau : Copernicus, 2018) Reese, Ronja; Winkelmann, Ricarda; Gudmundsson, G. HilmarCurrently, several large-scale ice-flow models impose a condition on ice flux across grounding lines using an analytically motivated parameterisation of grounding-line flux. It has been suggested that employing this analytical expression alleviates the need for highly resolved computational domains around grounding lines of marine ice sheets. While the analytical flux formula is expected to be accurate in an unbuttressed flow-line setting, its validity has hitherto not been assessed for complex and realistic geometries such as those of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Here the accuracy of this analytical flux formula is tested against an optimised ice flow model that uses a highly resolved computational mesh around the Antarctic grounding lines. We find that when applied to the Antarctic Ice Sheet the analytical expression provides inaccurate estimates of ice fluxes for almost all grounding lines. Furthermore, in many instances direct application of the analytical formula gives rise to unphysical complex-valued ice fluxes. We conclude that grounding lines of the Antarctic Ice Sheet are, in general, too highly buttressed for the analytical parameterisation to be of practical value for the calculation of grounding-line fluxes.
- ItemCryostratigraphy, sedimentology, and the late Quaternary evolution of the Zackenberg River delta, northeast Greenland(Katlenburg-Lindau : Copernicus, 2017-5-30) Gilbert, Graham L.; Cable, Stefanie; Thiel, Christine; Christiansen, Hanne H.; Elberling, BoThe Zackenberg River delta is located in northeast Greenland (74°30′ N, 20°30′ E) at the outlet of the Zackenberg fjord valley. The fjord-valley fill consists of a series of terraced deltaic deposits (ca. 2 km2) formed during relative sea-level (RSL) fall. We investigated the deposits using sedimentological and cryostratigraphic techniques together with optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating. We identify four facies associations in sections (4 to 22 m in height) exposed along the modern Zackenberg River and coast. Facies associations relate to (I) overriding glaciers, (II) retreating glaciers and quiescent glaciomarine conditions, (III) delta progradation in a fjord valley, and (IV) fluvial activity and niveo-aeolian processes. Pore, layered, and suspended cryofacies are identified in two 20 m deep ice-bonded sediment cores. The cryofacies distribution, together with low overall ground-ice content, indicates that permafrost is predominately epigenetic in these deposits. Fourteen OSL ages constrain the deposition of the cored deposits to between approximately 13 and 11 ka, immediately following deglaciation. The timing of permafrost aggradation was closely related to delta progradation and began following the subaerial exposure of the delta plain (ca. 11 ka). Our results reveal information concerning the interplay between deglaciation, RSL change, sedimentation, permafrost aggradation, and the timing of these events. These findings have implications for the timing and mode of permafrost aggradation in other fjord valleys in northeast Greenland.