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    Drought losses in China might double between the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming
    (Washington, DC : NAS, 2018) Su, Buda; Huang, Jinlong; Fischer, Thomas; Wang, Yanjun; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.; Zhai, Jianqing; Sun, Hemin; Wang, Anqian; Zeng, Xiaofan; Wang, Guojie; Tao, Hui; Gemmer, Marco; Li, Xiucang; Jiang, Tong
    We project drought losses in China under global temperature increase of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C, based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), a cluster analysis method, and “intensity-loss rate” function. In contrast to earlier studies, to project the drought losses, we predict the regional gross domestic product under shared socioeconomic pathways instead of using a static socioeconomic scenario. We identify increasing precipitation and evapotranspiration pattern for the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming above the preindustrial at 2020–2039 and 2040–2059, respectively. With increasing drought intensity and areal coverage across China, drought losses will soar. The estimated loss in a sustainable development pathway at the 1.5 °C warming level increases 10-fold in comparison with the reference period 1986–2005 and nearly threefold relative to the interval 2006–2015. However, limiting the temperature increase to 1.5 °C can reduce the annual drought losses in China by several tens of billions of US dollars, compared with the 2.0 °C warming.
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    Respiratory patterns of European pear (Pyrus communis L. ‘Conference’) throughout pre- and post-harvest fruit development
    (London [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2019) Brandes, Nicole; Zude-Sasse, Manuela
    Information on the developmental stage of pear pre-harvest and in shelf-life is crucial to determine the optimum timing of harvest, post-harvest treatment, and time of consumption ensuring high eating quality. In the present study, CO2 emission and fruit quality of European pear (Pyrus communis L.) ‘Conference’ were analysed pre- and post-harvest with emphasis on shelf life for three years. Additionally, cytochrome and cyanide-resistant O2 consumption were analysed in the last year of experiments. The respiration rate of pear showed typical climacteric rise of CO2 emission in two years only, despite daily measurements. However, in each year the fruit quality in shelf life was closely linked to harvest date suggesting climacteric fruit response. Thus, the developmental stage of ‘Conference’ pear should be analysed by additional methods. Particularly, the cytochrome and cyanide-resistant O2 consumption showed an encouraging potential to obtain data on characteristic respiratory patterns. © 2019
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    Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene
    (Washington, DC : NAS, 2018) Steffen, Will; Rockström, Johan; Richardson, Katherine; Lenton, Timothy M.; Folke, Carl; Liverman, Diana; Summerhayes, Colin P.; Barnosky, Anthony D.; Cornell, Sarah E.; Crucifix, Michel; Donges, Jonathan F.; Fetzer, Ingo; Lade, Steven J.; Scheffer, Marten; Winkelmann, Ricarda; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim
    We explore the risk that self-reinforcing feedbacks could push the Earth System toward a planetary threshold that, if crossed, could prevent stabilization of the climate at intermediate temperature rises and cause continued warming on a “Hothouse Earth” pathway even as human emissions are reduced. Crossing the threshold would lead to a much higher global average temperature than any interglacial in the past 1.2 million years and to sea levels significantly higher than at any time in the Holocene. We examine the evidence that such a threshold might exist and where it might be. If the threshold is crossed, the resulting trajectory would likely cause serious disruptions to ecosystems, society, and economies. Collective human action is required to steer the Earth System away from a potential threshold and stabilize it in a habitable interglacial-like state. Such action entails stewardship of the entire Earth System—biosphere, climate, and societies—and could include decarbonization of the global economy, enhancement of biosphere carbon sinks, behavioral changes, technological innovations, new governance arrangements, and transformed social values.