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End date: 2019 Ă— Start date: 2010 Ă— DDC: 550 Ă— Type: Text Ă— Publisher: Amsterdam : Elsevier B.V. Ă— Subject: Climate change Ă—

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    Hydrological impacts of moderate and high-end climate change across European river basins
    (Amsterdam : Elsevier B.V., 2018) Lobanova, A.; Liersch, S.; Nunes, J.P.; Didovets, I.; Stagl, J.; Huang, S.; Koch, H.; Rivas LĂłpez, M.D.R.; Maule, C.F.; Hattermann, F.; Krysanova, V.
    Study region: To provide a picture of hydrological impact of climate change across different climatic zones in Europe, this study considers eight river basins: Tagus in Iberian Peninsula; EmĂĄn and Lule in Scandinavia; Rhine, Danube and Teteriv in Central and Eastern Europe; Tay on the island of Great Britain and Northern Dvina in North-Eastern Europe. Study focus: In this study the assessment of the impacts of moderate and high-end climate change scenarios on the hydrological patterns in European basins was conducted. To assess the projected changes, the process-based eco-hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model) was set up, calibrated and validated for the basins. The SWIM was driven by the bias-corrected climate projections obtained from the coupled simulations of the Global Circulation Models and Regional Climate Models. New hydrological insights for the region: The results show robust decreasing trends in water availability in the most southern river basin (Tagus), an overall increase in discharge in the most northern river basin (Lule), increase in the winter discharge and shift in seasonality in Northern and Central European catchments. The impacts of the high-end climate change scenario RCP 8.5 continue to develop until the end of the century, while those of the moderate climate change scenario RCP 4.5 level-off after the mid-century. The results of this study also confirm trends, found previously with mostly global scale models.
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    Presentation of uncertainties on web platforms for climate change information
    (Amsterdam : Elsevier B.V., 2011) Reusser, D.E.; Wrobel, M.; Nocke, T.; Sterzel, T.; Förster, H.; Kropp, J.P.
    Adaptation to climate change is gaining attention and is very challenging because it requires action at a local scale in response to global problems. At the same time, spatial and temporal uncertainty about climate impacts and effects of adaptation projects is large. Data on climate impacts and adaptation is collected and presented in web-based platforms such as ci:grasp, which is unique in its structuredness and by explicitly linking adaptation projects to the addressed climate impacts. The challenge to find an adequate and readable representation of uncertainty in this context is large and research is just in the initial phase to provide solutions to the problem. Our goal is to present the structure required to address spatial and temporal uncertainty within ci:grasp. We compare existing concepts and representations for uncertainty communication with current practices on web-based platforms. From our review we derive an uncertainty framework for climate information going beyond what is currently present in the web. We make use of a multi-step approach in communicating the uncertainty and a typology of uncertainty distinguishing between epistemic, natural stochastic, and human reflexive uncertainty. While our suggestions are a step forward, much remains to be done.