2019, Sinnesael, Matthias, De Vleeschouwer, David, Zeeden, Christian, Batenburg, Sietske J., Da Silva, Anne-Christine, de Winter, Niels J., Dinarès-Turell, Jaume, Drury, Anna Joy, Gambacorta, Gabriele, Hilgen, Frederik J., Hinnov, Linda A., Hudson, Alexander J.L., Kemp, David B., Lantink, Margriet L., Laurin, Jiří, Li, Mingsong, Liebrand, Diederik, Ma, Chao, Meyers, Stephen R., Monkenbusch, Johannes, Montanari, Alessandro, Nohl, Theresa, Pälike, Heiko, Pas, Damien, Ruhl, Micha, Thibault, Nicolas, Vahlenkamp, Maximilian, Valero, Luis, Wouters, Sébastien, Wu, Huaichun, Claeys, Philippe

Cyclostratigraphy is an important tool for understanding astronomical climate forcing and reading geological time in sedimentary sequences, provided that an imprint of insolation variations caused by Earth’s orbital eccentricity, obliquity and/or precession is preserved (Milankovitch forcing). Numerous stratigraphic and paleoclimate studies have applied cyclostratigraphy, but the robustness of the methodology and its dependence on the investigator have not been systematically evaluated. We developed the Cyclostratigraphy Intercomparison Project (CIP) to assess the robustness of cyclostratigraphic methods using an experimental design of three artificial cyclostratigraphic case studies with known input parameters. Each case study is designed to address specific challenges that are relevant to cyclostratigraphy. Case 1 represents an offshore research vessel environment, as only a drill-core photo and the approximate position of a late Miocene stage boundary are available for analysis. In Case 2, the Pleistocene proxy record displays clear nonlinear cyclical patterns and the interpretation is complicated by the presence of a hiatus. Case 3 represents a Late Devonian proxy record with a low signal-to-noise ratio with no specific theoretical astronomical solution available for this age. Each case was analyzed by a test group of 17-20 participants, with varying experience levels, methodological preferences and dedicated analysis time. During the CIP 2018 meeting in Brussels, Belgium, the ensuing analyses and discussion demonstrated that most participants did not arrive at a perfect solution, which may be partly explained by the limited amount of time spent on the exercises (∼4.5 hours per case). However, in all three cases, the median solution of all submitted analyses accurately approached the correct result and several participants obtained the exact correct answers. Interestingly, systematically better performances were obtained for cases that represented the data type and stratigraphic age that were closest to the individual participants’ experience. This experiment demonstrates that cyclostratigraphy is a powerful tool for deciphering time in sedimentary successions and, importantly, that it is a trainable skill. Finally, we emphasize the importance of an integrated stratigraphic approach and provide flexible guidelines on what good practices in cyclostratigraphy should include. Our case studies provide valuable insight into current common practices in cyclostratigraphy, their potential merits and pitfalls. Our work does not provide a quantitative measure of reliability and uncertainty of cyclostratigraphy, but rather constitutes a starting point for further discussions on how to move the maturing field of cyclostratigraphy forward.

2017, Popp, Alexander, Calvin, Katherine, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Havlik, Petr, Humpenöder, Florian, Stehfest, Elke, Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon, Dietrich, Jan Philipp, Doelmann, Jonathan C., Gusti, Mykola, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Kyle, Page, Obersteiner, Michael, Tabeau, Andrzej, Takahashi, Kiyoshi, Valin, Hugo, Waldhoff, Stephanie, Weindl, Isabelle, Wise, Marshall, Kriegler, Elmar, Lotze-Campen, Hermann, Fricko, Oliver, Riahi, Keywan, Vuuren, Detlef P. van

In the future, the land system will be facing new intersecting challenges. While food demand, especially for resource-intensive livestock based commodities, is expected to increase, the terrestrial system has large potentials for climate change mitigation through improved agricultural management, providing biomass for bioenergy, and conserving or even enhancing carbon stocks of ecosystems. However, uncertainties in future socio-economic land use drivers may result in very different land-use dynamics and consequences for land-based ecosystem services. This is the first study with a systematic interpretation of the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) in terms of possible land-use changes and their consequences for the agricultural system, food provision and prices as well as greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, five alternative Integrated Assessment Models with distinctive land-use modules have been used for the translation of the SSP narratives into quantitative projections. The model results reflect the general storylines of the SSPs and indicate a broad range of potential land-use futures with global agricultural land of 4900 mio ha in 2005 decreasing by 743 mio ha until 2100 at the lower (SSP1) and increasing by 1080 mio ha (SSP3) at the upper end. Greenhouse gas emissions from land use and land use change, as a direct outcome of these diverse land-use dynamics, and agricultural production systems differ strongly across SSPs (e.g. cumulative land use change emissions between 2005 and 2100 range from −54 to 402 Gt CO2). The inclusion of land-based mitigation efforts, particularly those in the most ambitious mitigation scenarios, further broadens the range of potential land futures and can strongly affect greenhouse gas dynamics and food prices. In general, it can be concluded that low demand for agricultural commodities, rapid growth in agricultural productivity and globalized trade, all most pronounced in a SSP1 world, have the potential to enhance the extent of natural ecosystems, lead to lowest greenhouse gas emissions from the land system and decrease food prices over time. The SSP-based land use pathways presented in this paper aim at supporting future climate research and provide the basis for further regional integrated assessments, biodiversity research and climate impact analysis. © 2016 The Authors

2019, Galmarini, S., Cannon, A.J., Ceglar, A., Christensen, O.B., de Noblet-Ducoudré, N., Dentener, F., Doblas-Reyes, F.J., Dosio, A., Gutierrez, J.M., Iturbide, M., Jury, M., Lange, S., Loukos, H., Maiorano, A., Maraun, D., McGinnis, S., Nikulin, G., Riccio, A., Sanchez, E., Solazzo, E., Toreti, A., Vrac, M., Zampieri, M.

[No abstract available]

2018, Brandes, Christian, Igel, Jan, Loewer, Markus, Tanner, David C., Lang, Jörg, Müller, Katharina, Winsemann, Jutta

Deformation bands in unconsolidated sediments are of great value for paleoseismological studies in sedimentary archives. Using ground-penetrating radar (GPR), we investigated an array of shear-deformation bands that developed in unconsolidated Pleistocene glacifluvial Gilbert-type delta sediments. A dense grid (spacing 0.6 m) of GPR profiles was measured on top of a 20 m-long outcrop that exposes shear-deformation bands. Features in the radargrams could be directly tied to the exposure. The shear-deformation bands are partly represented by inclined reflectors and partly by the offset of reflections at delta clinoforms. 3-D interpretation of the 2-D radar sections shows that the bands have near-planar geometries that can be traced throughout the entire sediment volume. Thin sections of sediment samples show that the analysed shear-deformation bands have a denser grain packing than the host sediment. Thus they have a lower porosity and smaller pore sizes and therefore, in the vadose zone, the deformation bands have a higher water content due to enhanced capillary forces. This, together with the partially-developed weak calcite cementation and the distinct offset along the bands, are likely the main reasons for the clear and unambiguous expression of the shear-deformation bands in the radar survey. The study shows that deformation-band arrays can clearly be detected using GPR and quickly mapped over larger sediment volumes. With the 3-D analysis, it is further possible to derive the orientation and geometry of the bands. This allows correlation of the bands with the regional fault trend. Studying deformation bands in unconsolidated sediments with GPR is therefore a powerful approach in paleoseismological studies. Based on our data, we postulate that the outcrop is part of a dextral strike-slip zone that was reactivated by glacial isostatic adjustment.

2019, Liersch, Stefan, Fournet, Samuel, Koch, Hagen, Djibo, Abdouramane Gado, Reinhardt, Julia, Kortlandt, Joyce, Van Weert, Frank, Seidou, Ousmane, Klop, Erik, Baker, Chris, Hattermann, Fred F.

Study region: The Upper Niger and Bani River basins in West Africa. Study focus: The growing demand for food, water, and energy led Mali and Guinea to develop ambitious hydropower and irrigation plans, including the construction of a new dam and the extension of irrigation schemes. These two developments will take place upstream of sensible ecosystem hotspots while the feasibility of development plans in terms of water availability and sustainability is questionable. Where agricultural development in past decades focused mainly on intensifying dry-season crops cultivation, future plans include extension in both the dry and wet seasons. New hydrological insights for the region: Today's irrigation demand corresponds to 7% of the average annual Niger discharge and could account to one third in 2045. An extension of irrigated agriculture is possible in the wet season, while extending dry-season cropping would be largely compromised with the one major existing Sélingué dam. An additional large Fomi or Moussako dam would not completely satisfy dry-season irrigation demands in the 2045 scenario but would reduce the estimated supply gap from 36% to 14%. However, discharge peaks may decrease by 40% reducing the inundated area in the Inner Niger Delta by 21%, while average annual discharge decreases by 30%. Sustainable development should therefore consider investments in water-saving irrigation and management practices to enhance the feasibility of the envisaged irrigation plans instead of completely relying on the construction of a flow regime altering dam. © 2019 The Authors

2016, Häyhä, Tiina, Lucas, Paul L., van Vuuren, Detlef P., Cornell, Sarah E., Hoff, Holger

The planetary boundaries framework proposes quantitative global limits to the anthropogenic perturbation of crucial Earth system processes, and thus marks out a planetary safe operating space for human activities. Yet, decisions regarding resource use and emissions are mostly made at less aggregated scales, by national and sub-national governments, businesses, and other local actors. To operationalize the planetary boundaries concept, the boundaries need to be translated into and aligned with targets that are relevant at these decision-making scales. In this paper, we develop a framework that addresses the biophysical, socio-economic, and ethical dimensions of bridging across scales, to provide a consistently applicable approach for translating the planetary boundaries into national-level fair shares of Earth’s safe operating space. We discuss our findings in the context of previous studies and their implications for future analyses and policymaking. In this way, we link the planetary boundaries framework to widely-applied operational and policy concepts for more robust strong sustainability decision-making.

2014, Sietz, D.

Global analyses of vulnerability reveal generic insights into the relation between socio-ecological systems and the stress impacting upon them including climate and market variability. They thus provide a valuable basis for better understanding and comparing the evolution of socio-ecological systems from a broad perspective. However, even when reflecting sub-national differences, global assessments necessarily aggregate regional variations in the underlying conditions of vulnerability. Refinements are therefore necessary to better accommodate context-specific processes and hence facilitate vulnerability reduction. This study presents a novel methodology to refining global insights into vulnerability at a regional scale. It is based on a spatially explicit link between broad patterns of vulnerability and modelled regional smallholder development. Its application in order to better represent the drylands of Northeast Brazil reveals specific facets of smallholders' vulnerability at the municipio level, reflecting non-linear dynamics. The results show that smallholders' vulnerability was widely exacerbated in the most vulnerable areas. One key mechanism causing such a vulnerability increase involved intensifying resource degradation and the related potential for impoverishment as modelled at the regional scale. In addition, by subsequently re-orienting their livelihoods towards off-farm activities, smallholders became more sensitive to fluctuations and competition in the labour market. In contrast to these critical trends, living and environmental conditions improved in only some areas, thus indicating a decrease in vulnerability. Altogether, in differentiating the heterogeneity of resource management and smallholders' livelihoods, the regional refinement presented in this study indicates necessary adjustments to generic strategies for vulnerability reduction gained at the global scale.

2019, Didovets, Iulii, Krysanova, Valentina, Bürger, Gerd, Snizhko, Sergiy, Balabukh, Vira, Bronstert, Axel

Study region: Tisza and Prut catchments, originating on the slopes of the Carpathian mountains. Study focus: The study reported here investigates (i) climate change impacts on flood risk in the region, and (ii) uncertainty related to hydrological modelling, downscaling techniques and climate projections. The climate projections used in the study were derived from five GCMs, downscaled either dynamically with RCMs or with the statistical downscaling model XDS. The resulting climate change scenarios were applied to drive the eco-hydrological model SWIM, which was calibrated and validated for the catchments in advance using observed climate and hydrological data. The changes in the 30-year flood hazards and 98 and 95 percentiles of discharge were evaluated for the far future period (2071–2100) in comparison with the reference period (1981–2010). New hydrological insights for the region: The majority of model outputs under RCP 4.5 show a small to strong increase of the 30-year flood level in the Tisza ranging from 4.5% to 62%, and moderate increase in the Prut ranging from 11% to 22%. The impact results under RCP 8.5 are more uncertain with changes in both directions due to high uncertainties in GCM-RCM climate projections, downscaling methods and the low density of available climate stations. © 2019 The Authors

2019, Adamseged, Muluken E., Frija, Aymen, Thiel, Andreas

[No abstract available]

2017, Lang, Jörg, Sievers, Julian, Loewer, Markus, Igel, Jan, Winsemann, Jutta

Bedforms related to supercritical flows are increasingly recognised as important constituents of many depositional environments, but outcrop studies are commonly hampered by long bedform wavelengths and complex three-dimensional geometries. We combined outcrop-based facies analysis with ground-penetrating radar (GPR) surveys to analyse the 3D facies architecture of subaqueous ice-contact fan and glacifluvial delta deposits. The studied sedimentary systems were deposited at the margins of the Middle Pleistocene Scandinavian ice sheets in Northern Germany. Glacifluvial Gilbert-type deltas are characterised by steeply dipping foreset beds, comprising cyclic-step deposits, which alternate with antidune deposits. Deposits of cyclic steps consist of lenticular scours infilled by backset cross-stratified pebbly sand and gravel. The GPR sections show that the scour fills form trains along the delta foresets, which can locally be traced for up to 15 m. Perpendicular and oblique to palaeoflow direction, these deposits appear as troughs with concentric or low-angle cross-stratified infills. Downflow transitions from scour fills into sheet-like low-angle cross-stratified or sinusoidally stratified pebbly sand, deposited by antidunes, are common. Cyclic steps and antidunes were deposited by sustained and surge-type supercritical density flows, which were related to hyperpycnal flows, triggered by major meltwater discharge or slope-failure events. Subaqueous ice-contact fan deposits include deposits of progradational scour fills, isolated hydraulic jumps, antidunes and (humpback) dunes. The gravel-rich fan succession consists of vertical stacks of laterally amalgamated pseudo-sheets, indicating deposition by pulses of waning supercritical flows under high aggradation rates. The GPR sections reveal the large-scale architecture of the sand-rich fan succession, which is characterised by lobe elements with basal erosional surfaces associated with scours filled with backsets related to hydraulic jumps, passing upwards and downflow into deposits of antidunes and (humpback) dunes. The recurrent facies architecture of the lobe elements and their prograding and retrograding stacking pattern are interpreted as related to autogenic flow morphodynamics.