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- ItemThe summer aerosol in the central Arctic 1991-2008: Did it change or not?(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2012) Heintzenberg, J.; Leck, C.In the course of global warming dramatic changes are taking place in the Arctic and boreal environments. However, physical aerosol data in from the central summer Arctic taken over the course of 18 yr from 1991 to 2008 do not show systematic year-to-year changes, albeit substantial interannual variations. Besides the limited extent of the data several causes may be responsible for these findings. The processes controlling concentrations and particle size distribution of the aerosol over the central Arctic perennial pack ice area, north of 80°, may not have changed substantially during this time. Environmental changes are still mainly effective in the marginal ice zone, the ice-free waters and continental rims and have not propagated significantly into the central Arctic yet where they could affect the local aerosol and its sources. The analysis of meteorological conditions of the four expedition summers reveal substantial variations which we see as main causes of the measured variations in aerosol parameters. With combined lognormal fits of the hourly number size distributions of the four expeditions representative mode parameters for the summer aerosol in the central Arctic have been calculated. The combined aerosol statistics discussed in the present paper provide comprehensive physical data on the summer aerosol in the central Arctic. These data are the only surface aerosol information from this region.
- ItemAsymmetry and uncertainties in biogeophysical climate-vegetation feedback over a range of CO2 forcings(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2014) Willeit, M.; Ganopolski, A.; Feulner, G.Climate–vegetation feedback has the potential to significantly contribute to climate change, but little is known about its range of uncertainties. Here, using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity we address possible uncertainties in the strength of the biogeophysical climate–vegetation feedback using a single-model multi-physics ensemble. Equilibrium experiments with halving (140 ppm) and doubling (560 ppm) of CO2 give a contribution of the vegetation–climate feedback to global temperature change in the range −0.3 to −0.1 °C and −0.1 to 0.2 °C, respectively. There is an asymmetry between warming and cooling, with a larger, positive vegetation–climate feedback in the lower CO2 climate. Hotspots of climate–vegetation feedback are the boreal zone, the Amazon rainforest and the Sahara. Albedo parameterization is the dominant source of uncertainty in the subtropics and at high northern latitudes, while uncertainties in evapotranspiration are more relevant in the tropics. We analyse the separate impact of changes in stomatal conductance, leaf area index and vegetation dynamics on climate and we find that different processes are dominant in lower and higher CO2 worlds. The reduction in stomatal conductance gives the main contribution to temperature increase for a doubling of CO2, while dynamic vegetation is the dominant process in the CO2 halving experiments. Globally the climate–vegetation feedback is rather small compared to the sum of the fast climate feedbacks. However, it is comparable to the amplitude of the fast feedbacks at high northern latitudes where it can contribute considerably to polar amplification. The uncertainties in the climate–vegetation feedback are comparable to the multi-model spread of the fast climate feedbacks.
- ItemEstimating the near-surface permafrost-carbon feedback on global warming(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2012) Schneider von Deimling, T.; Meinshausen, M.; Levermann, A.; Huber, V.; Frieler, K.; Lawrence, D.M.; Brovkin, V.Thawing of permafrost and the associated release of carbon constitutes a positive feedback in the climate system, elevating the effect of anthropogenic GHG emissions on global-mean temperatures. Multiple factors have hindered the quantification of this feedback, which was not included in climate carbon-cycle models which participated in recent model intercomparisons (such as the Coupled Carbon Cycle Climate Model Intercomparison Project – C4MIP) . There are considerable uncertainties in the rate and extent of permafrost thaw, the hydrological and vegetation response to permafrost thaw, the decomposition timescales of freshly thawed organic material, the proportion of soil carbon that might be emitted as carbon dioxide via aerobic decomposition or as methane via anaerobic decomposition, and in the magnitude of the high latitude amplification of global warming that will drive permafrost degradation. Additionally, there are extensive and poorly characterized regional heterogeneities in soil properties, carbon content, and hydrology. Here, we couple a new permafrost module to a reduced complexity carbon-cycle climate model, which allows us to perform a large ensemble of simulations. The ensemble is designed to span the uncertainties listed above and thereby the results provide an estimate of the potential strength of the feedback from newly thawed permafrost carbon. For the high CO2 concentration scenario (RCP8.5), 33–114 GtC (giga tons of Carbon) are released by 2100 (68 % uncertainty range). This leads to an additional warming of 0.04–0.23 °C. Though projected 21st century permafrost carbon emissions are relatively modest, ongoing permafrost thaw and slow but steady soil carbon decomposition means that, by 2300, about half of the potentially vulnerable permafrost carbon stock in the upper 3 m of soil layer (600–1000 GtC) could be released as CO2, with an extra 1–4 % being released as methane. Our results also suggest that mitigation action in line with the lower scenario RCP3-PD could contain Arctic temperature increase sufficiently that thawing of the permafrost area is limited to 9–23 % and the permafrost-carbon induced temperature increase does not exceed 0.04–0.16 °C by 2300.
- ItemSpatial, temporal and source contribution assessments of black carbon over the northern interior of South Africa(Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2017) Chiloane, Kgaugelo Euphinia; Beukes, Johan Paul; van Zyl, Pieter Gideon; Maritz, Petra; Vakkari, Ville; Josipovic, Miroslav; Venter, Andrew Derick; Jaars, Kerneels; Tiitta, Petri; Kulmala, Markku; Wiedensohler, Alfred; Liousse, Catherine; Mkhatshwa, Gabisile Vuyisile; Ramandh, Avishkar; Laakso, LauriAfter carbon dioxide (CO2), aerosol black carbon (BC) is considered to be the second most important contributor to global warming. This paper presents equivalent black carbon (eBC) (derived from an optical absorption method) data collected from three sites in the interior of South Africa where continuous measurements were conducted, i.e. Elandsfontein, Welgegund and Marikana, as well elemental carbon (EC) (determined by evolved carbon method) data at five sites where samples were collected once a month on a filter and analysed offline, i.e. Louis Trichardt, Skukuza, Vaal Triangle, Amersfoort and Botsalano. Analyses of eBC and EC spatial mass concentration patterns across the eight sites indicate that the mass concentrations in the South African interior are in general higher than what has been reported for the developed world and that different sources are likely to influence different sites. The mean eBC or EC mass concentrations for the background sites (Welgegund, Louis Trichardt, Skukuza, Botsalano) and sites influenced by industrial activities and/or nearby settlements (Elandsfontein, Marikana, Vaal Triangle and Amersfoort) ranged between 0.7 and 1.1, and 1.3 and 1.4 μg m-3, respectively. Similar seasonal patterns were observed at all three sites where continuous measurement data were collected (Elandsfontein, Marikana and Welgegund), with the highest eBC mass concentrations measured from June to October, indicating contributions from household combustion in the cold winter months (June-August), as well as savannah and grassland fires during the dry season (May to mid-October). Diurnal patterns of eBC at Elandsfontein, Marikana and Welgegund indicated maximum concentrations in the early mornings and late evenings, and minima during daytime. From the patterns it could be deduced that for Marikana and Welgegund, household combustion, as well as savannah and grassland fires, were the most significant sources, respectively. Possible contributing sources were explored in greater detail for Elandsfontein, with five main sources being identified as coal-fired power stations, pyrometallurgical smelters, traffic, household combustion, as well as savannah and grassland fires. Industries on the Mpumalanga Highveld are often blamed for all forms of pollution, due to the NO2 hotspot over this area that is attributed to NOx emissions from industries and vehicle emissions from the Johannesburg. Pretoria megacity. However, a comparison of source strengths indicated that household combustion as well as savannah and grassland fires were the most significant sources of eBC, particularly during winter and spring months, while coal-fired power stations, pyrometallurgical smelters and traffic contribute to eBC mass concentration levels year round.
- ItemCarbon dioxide and climate impulse response functions for the computation of greenhouse gas metrics: A multi-model analysis(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2013) Joos, F.; Roth, R.; Fuglestvedt, J.S.; Peters, G.P.; Enting, I.G.; von Bloh, W.; Brovkin, V.; Burke, E.J.; Eby, M.; Edwards, N.R.; Friedrich, T.; Frölicher, T.L.; Halloran, P.R.; Holden, P.B.; Jones, C.; Kleinen, T.; Mackenzie, F.T.; Matsumoto, K.; Meinshausen, M.; Plattner, G.-K.; Reisinger, A.; Segschneider, J.; Shaffer, G.; Steinacher, M.; Strassmann, K.; Tanaka, K.; Timmermann, A.; Weaver, A.J.The responses of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other climate variables to an emission pulse of CO2 into the atmosphere are often used to compute the Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Global Temperature change Potential (GTP), to characterize the response timescales of Earth System models, and to build reduced-form models. In this carbon cycle-climate model intercomparison project, which spans the full model hierarchy, we quantify responses to emission pulses of different magnitudes injected under different conditions. The CO2 response shows the known rapid decline in the first few decades followed by a millennium-scale tail. For a 100 Gt-C emission pulse added to a constant CO2 concentration of 389 ppm, 25 ± 9% is still found in the atmosphere after 1000 yr; the ocean has absorbed 59 ± 12% and the land the remainder (16 ± 14%). The response in global mean surface air temperature is an increase by 0.20 ± 0.12 °C within the first twenty years; thereafter and until year 1000, temperature decreases only slightly, whereas ocean heat content and sea level continue to rise. Our best estimate for the Absolute Global Warming Potential, given by the time-integrated response in CO2 at year 100 multiplied by its radiative efficiency, is 92.5 × 10−15 yr W m−2 per kg-CO2. This value very likely (5 to 95% confidence) lies within the range of (68 to 117) × 10−15 yr W m−2 per kg-CO2. Estimates for time-integrated response in CO2 published in the IPCC First, Second, and Fourth Assessment and our multi-model best estimate all agree within 15% during the first 100 yr. The integrated CO2 response, normalized by the pulse size, is lower for pre-industrial conditions, compared to present day, and lower for smaller pulses than larger pulses. In contrast, the response in temperature, sea level and ocean heat content is less sensitive to these choices. Although, choices in pulse size, background concentration, and model lead to uncertainties, the most important and subjective choice to determine AGWP of CO2 and GWP is the time horizon.
- ItemThe economically optimal warming limit of the planet(Göttingen : Copernicus Publ., 2019) Ueckerd, Falko; Frieler, Katja; Lange, Stefan; Wenz, Leonie; Luderer, Gunnar; Levermann, AndersBoth climate-change damages and climate-change mitigation will incur economic costs. While the risk of severe damages increases with the level of global warming (Dell et al., 2014; IPCC, 2014b, 2018; Lenton et al., 2008), mitigating costs increase steeply with more stringent warming limits (IPCC, 2014a; Luderer et al., 2013; Rogelj et al., 2015). Here, we show that the global warming limit that minimizes this century's total economic costs of climate change lies between 1.9 and 2°C, if temperature changes continue to impact national economic growth rates as observed in the past and if instantaneous growth effects are neither compensated nor amplified by additional growth effects in the following years. The result is robust across a wide range of normative assumptions on the valuation of future welfare and inequality aversion. We combine estimates of climate-change impacts on economic growth for 186 countries (applying an empirical damage function from Burke et al., 2015) with mitigation costs derived from a state-of-the-art energy-economy-climate model with a wide range of highly resolved mitigation options (Kriegler et al., 2017; Luderer et al., 2013, 2015). Our purely economic assessment, even though it omits non-market damages, provides support for the international Paris Agreement on climate change. The political goal of limiting global warming to "well below 2 degrees" is thus also an economically optimal goal given above assumptions on adaptation and damage persistence. © 2019 Copernicus GmbH. All rights reserved.
- ItemFreshwater resources under success and failure of the Paris climate agreement(Göttingen : Copernicus Publ., 2019) Heinke, Jens; Müller, Christoph; Lannerstad, Mats; Gerten, Dieter; Lucht, WolfgangPopulation growth will in many regions increase the pressure on water resources and likely increase the number of people affected by water scarcity. In parallel, global warming causes hydrological changes which will affect freshwater supply for human use in many regions. This study estimates the exposure of future population to severe hydrological changes relevant from a freshwater resource perspective at different levels of global mean temperature rise above pre-industrial level (ΔTglob). The analysis is complemented by an assessment of water scarcity that would occur without additional climate change due to population change alone; this is done to identify the population groups that are faced with particularly high adaptation challenges. The results are analysed in the context of success and failure of implementing the Paris Agreement to evaluate how climate mitigation can reduce the future number of people exposed to severe hydrological change. The results show that without climate mitigation efforts, in the year 2100 about 4.9 billion people in the SSP2 population scenario would more likely than not be exposed to severe hydrological change, and about 2.1 billion of them would be faced with particularly high adaptation challenges due to already prevailing water scarcity. Limiting warming to 2 °C by a successful implementation of the Paris Agreement would strongly reduce these numbers to 615 million and 290 million, respectively. At the regional scale, substantial water-related risks remain at 2 °C, with more than 12% of the population exposed to severe hydrological change and high adaptation challenges in Latin America and the Middle East and north Africa region. Constraining δTglob to 1.5 °C would limit this share to about 5% in these regions. ©2019 Author(s).
- ItemGlobal and regional effects of land-use change on climate in 21st century simulations with interactive carbon cycle(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2014) Boysen, L.R.; Brovkin, V.; Arora, V.K.; Cadule, P.; De Noblet-Ducoudré, N.; Kato, E.; Pongratz, J.; Gayler, V.Biogeophysical (BGP) and biogeochemical (BGC) effects of land-use and land cover change (LULCC) are separated at the global and regional scales in new interactive CO2simulations for the 21st century. Results from four earth system models (ESMs) are analyzed for the future RCP8.5 scenario from simulations with and without land-use and land cover change (LULCC), contributing to the Land-Use and Climate, IDentification of robust impacts (LUCID) project. Over the period 2006-2100, LULCC causes the atmospheric CO2concentration to increase by 12, 22, and 66 ppm in CanESM2, MIROC-ESM, and MPI-ESM-LR, respectively. Statistically significant changes in global near-surface temperature are found in three models with a BGC-induced global mean annual warming between 0.07 and 0.23 K. BGP-induced responses are simulated by three models in areas of intense LULCC of varying sign and magnitude (between g 0.47 and 0.10 K). Modifications of the land carbon pool by LULCC are disentangled in accordance with processes that can lead to increases and decreases in this carbon pool. Global land carbon losses due to LULCC are simulated by all models: 218, 57, 35 and 34 Gt C by MPI-ESM-LR, MIROC-ESM, IPSL-CM5A-LR and CanESM2, respectively. On the contrary, the CO2-fertilization effect caused by elevated atmospheric CO2concentrations due to LULCC leads to a land carbon gain of 39 Gt C in MPI-ESM-LR and is almost negligible in the other models. A substantial part of the spread in models' responses to LULCC is attributed to the differences in implementation of LULCC (e.g., whether pastures or crops are simulated explicitly) and the simulation of specific processes. Simple idealized experiments with clear protocols for implementing LULCC in ESMs are needed to increase the understanding of model responses and the statistical significance of results, especially when analyzing the regional-scale impacts of LULCC.
- ItemThe Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2016) O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2°C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit emissions and land use scenarios generated with integrated assessment models will be provided to participating climate modeling groups by late 2016, with the climate model simulations run within the 2017–2018 time frame, and output from the climate model projections made available and analyses performed over the 2018–2020 period.
- ItemGlobal warming as a detectable thermodynamic marker of Earth-like extrasolar civilizations: The case for a telescope like Colossus(Cambridge : Cambridge University Press, 2015) Kuhn, Jeff R.; Berdyugina, Svetlana V.Earth-like civilizations generate heat from the energy that they utilize. The thermal radiation from this heat can be a thermodynamic marker for civilizations. Here we model such planetary radiation on Earth-like planets and propose a strategy for detecting such an alien unintentional thermodynamic electromagnetic biomarker. We show that astronomical infrared (IR) civilization biomarkers may be detected within an interestingly large cosmic volume using a 70 m-class or larger telescope. In particular, the Colossus telescope with achievable coronagraphic and adaptive optics performance may reveal Earth-like civilizations from visible and IR photometry timeseries’ taken during an exoplanetary orbit period. The detection of an alien heat signature will have far-ranging implications, but even a null result, given 70 m aperture sensitivity, could also have broad social implications.