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- ItemThe role of bioenergy in enhancing energy, food and ecosystem sustainability based on societal perceptions and preferences in Asia(Basel : MDPI, 2016) Acosta, Lilibeth A.; Magcale-Macandog, Damasa B.; Kavi Kumar, K.S.; Cui, Xuefeng; Eugenio, Elena A.; Macandog, Paula Beatrice M.; Salvacion, Arnold R.; Eugenio, Jemimah Mae A.This paper discussed the analysis of the survey on sustainability of bioenergy conducted in the Philippines, India and China. It acquired general perceptions of the people by asking them (a) specific questions about their level of familiarity with bioenergy; (b) relationship of their work to bioenergy; and (c) their opinion on contribution of various feedstock on the economy and impact of bioenergy production on food security. In addition to these questions, we estimated preference weights of various feedstock based on the conjoint choices on bioenergy’s contribution to social stability, social welfare and ecological balance. The estimates revealed significant trade-offs not only among these three dimensions of sustainability but also the relative importance of energy security, food security and ecosystem capacity to other economic, social and environmental objectives. The types of first generation feedstock that are currently used for biofuel production in the respective countries and those that offer alternative household use are perceived as important to the economy and preferred bioenergy feedstock. Based on the results of the study, the preferred role of bioenergy for sustainable development reflects the social and economic concerns in the respective Asian countries, e.g., energy security in China, food security in India, and ecosystem degradation in the Philippines.
- ItemClimate change in Afghanistan deduced from reanalysis and coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment (CORDEX)-South Asia simulations(Basel : MDPI, 2017) Aich, Valentin; Akhundzadah, Noor Ahmad; Knuerr, Alec; Khoshbeen, Ahmad Jamshed; Hattermann, Fred; Paeth, Heiko; Scanlon, Andrew; Paton, Eva NoraPast and the projected future climate change in Afghanistan has been analyzed systematically and differentiated with respect to its different climate regions to gain some first quantitative insights into Afghanistan’s vulnerability to ongoing and future climate changes. For this purpose, temperature, precipitation and five additional climate indices for extremes and agriculture assessments (heavy precipitation; spring precipitation; growing season length (GSL), the Heat Wave Magnitude Index (HWMI); and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)) from the reanalysis data were examined for their consistency to identify changes in the past (data since 1950). For future changes (up to the year 2100), the same parameters were extracted from an ensemble of 12 downscaled regional climate models (RCM) of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)-South Asia simulations for low and high emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5). In the past, the climatic changes were mainly characterized by a mean temperature increase above global level of 1.8 °C from 1950 to 2010; uncertainty with regard to reanalyzed rainfall data limited a thorough analysis of past changes. Climate models projected the temperature trend to accelerate in the future, depending strongly on the global carbon emissions (2006–2050 Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5/8.5: 1.7/2.3 °C; 2006–2099: 2.7/6.4 °C, respectively). Despite the high uncertainty with regard to precipitation projections, it became apparent that the increasing evapotranspiration is likely to exacerbate Afghanistan’s already existing water stress, including a very strong increase of frequency and magnitude of heat waves. Overall, the results show that in addition to the already extensive deficiency in adaptation to current climate conditions, the situation will be aggravated in the future, particularly in regard to water management and agriculture. Thus, the results of this study underline the importance of adequate adaptation to climate change in Afghanistan. This is even truer taking into account that GSL is projected to increase substantially by around 20 days on average until 2050, which might open the opportunity for extended agricultural husbandry or even additional harvests when water resources are properly managed.
- ItemSecurity of supply in european electricity markets-determinants of investment decisions and the European Energy Union(Basel : MDPI, 2015) Ellenbeck, Saskia; Beneking, Andreas; Ceglarz, Andrzej; Schmidt, Peter; Battaglini, AntonellaThe European Union and its Member States are seeking to decarbonize their energy systems, including the electricity sector and, at the same time, pursue market integration. However, renewable energy (RE) deployment and the liberalization of the energy-only market have raised concerns at the national level about the security of electricity supplies in the future. Some actors consider the lack of sufficient investments in generation capacities a threat to supply security. As a consequence, it was proposed that capacity markets solve these problems. The underlying assumption is that the market design is the only determining factor for investments in security of supply options. In this article, we question this narrow view and identify further determinants of the investment decisions of electricity market participants. Based on the insights of institutional sociology and economics, we understand the market to be a social institution that structures the behavioural expectations of market participants. Derived from the theoretical conceptualization and based on qualitative literature review and own work, we find four determinants for investment behaviour beyond the formal market design: Material opportunities, strategic actor behavior and identity, focusing events and discursive expectations about the future. With this perspective, we discuss the introduction of a European Energy Union as a possible tool that might have a great impact on the more informal determinants such as expectations about the future and the construction of a European energy narrative.
- ItemCan the BESTGRID process improve stakeholder involvement in electricity transmission projects?(Basel : MDPI, 2015) Komendantova, Nadejda; Vocciante, Marco; Battaglini, AntonellaThe European Union has set ambitious targets for deployment of renewable energy sources to reach goals of climate change mitigation and energy security policies. However, the current state of electricity transmission infrastructure is a major bottleneck for further scaling up of renewable energy in the EU. Several thousands of kilometers of new lines have to be constructed and upgraded to accommodate growing volumes of intermittent renewable electricity. In many countries, construction of electricity transmission projects has been delayed for several years due to concerns of local stakeholders. The innovative BESTGRID approach, reported here, brings together transmission system operators (TSOs) and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) to discuss and understand the nature of stakeholder concerns. This paper has three objectives: (1) to understand stakeholder concerns about the deployment of electricity transmission grids in four pilot projects according to five guiding principles: need, transparency, engagement, environment, and impacts on human health as well as benefits; (2) to understand how these principles can be addressed to provide a basis for better decision-making outcomes; and (3) to evaluate the BESTGRID process based on feedback received from stakeholders and the level of participation achieved according to the ladder of Arnstein. This paper goes beyond a discussion of “measures to mitigate opposition” to understand how dialogue between TSOs and the public—represented mainly by NGOs and policy-makers—might lead to a better decision-making process and more sustainable electricity transmission infrastructure deployment.
- ItemCarbon lock-out: Advancing renewable energy policy in Europe(Basel : MDPI, 2012) Lehmann, Paul; Creutzig, Felix; Ehlers, Melf-Hinrich; Friedrichsen, Nele; Heuson, Clemens; Hirth, Lion; Pietzcker, RobertAs part of its climate strategy, the EU aims at increasing the share of electricity from renewable energy sources (RES-E) in overall electricity generation. Attaining this target poses a considerable challenge as the electricity sector is “locked” into a carbon-intensive system, which hampers the adoption of RES-E technologies. Electricity generation, transmission and distribution grids as well as storage and demand response are subject to important path dependences, which put existing, non-renewable energy sources at an advantage. This paper examines how an EU framework for RES-E support policies should be designed to facilitate a carbon lock-out. For this purpose, we specify the major technological, economic and institutional barriers to RES-E. For each of the barriers, a policy review is carried out which assesses the performance of existing policy instruments and identifies needs for reform. The review reveals several shortcomings: while policies targeting generation are widely in place, measures to address barriers associated with electricity grids, storage and demand are still in their infancy and have to be extended. Moreover, the implementation of policies has been fragmented across EU Member States. In this respect, national policies should be embedded into an integrated EU-wide planning of the RES-E system with overarching energy scenarios and partially harmonized policy rules.
- ItemStatistical mechanics and information-theoretic perspectives on complexity in the Earth system(Basel : MDPI, 2013) Balasis, Georgios; Donner, Reik V.; Potirakis, Stelios M.; Runge, Jakob; Papadimitriou, Constantinos; Daglis, Ioannis A.; Eftaxias, Konstantinos; Kurths, JürgenThis review provides a summary of methods originated in (non-equilibrium) statistical mechanics and information theory, which have recently found successful applications to quantitatively studying complexity in various components of the complex system Earth. Specifically, we discuss two classes of methods: (i) entropies of different kinds (e.g., on the one hand classical Shannon and R´enyi entropies, as well as non-extensive Tsallis entropy based on symbolic dynamics techniques and, on the other hand, approximate entropy, sample entropy and fuzzy entropy); and (ii) measures of statistical interdependence and causality (e.g., mutual information and generalizations thereof, transfer entropy, momentary information transfer). We review a number of applications and case studies utilizing the above-mentioned methodological approaches for studying contemporary problems in some exemplary fields of the Earth sciences, highlighting the potentials of different techniques.
- ItemEffects of the Lake Sobradinho Reservoir (Northeastern Brazil) on the Regional Climate(Basel : MDPI, 2017) Ekhtiari, Nikoo; Grossman-Clarke, Susanne; Koch, Hagen; de Souza, Werônica Meira; Donner, Reik V.; Volkholz, JanThis study investigates the effects of Lake Sobradinho, a large reservoir in Northeastern Brazil, on the local near-surface atmospheric and boundary layer conditions. For this purpose, simulations with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM are compared for two different scenarios: (1) with the lake being replaced by the average normal native vegetation cover and (2) with the lake as it exists today, for two different two-month periods reflecting average and very dry conditions, respectively. The performance of the simulation is evaluated against data from surface meteorological stations as well as satellite data in order to ensure the model’s ability to capture atmospheric conditions in the vicinity of Lake Sobradinho. The obtained results demonstrate that the lake affects the near-surface air temperature of the surrounding area as well as its humidity and wind patterns. Specifically, Lake Sobradinho cools down the air during the day and warms it up during the night by up to several ∘ C depending on the large-scale meteorological conditions. Moreover, the humidity is significantly increased as a result of the lake’s presence and causes a lake breeze. The observed effects on humidity and air temperature also extend over areas relatively far away from the lake.
- ItemImplications of Winter NAO Flavors on Present and Future European Climate(Basel : MDPI, 2019) Rousi, Efi; Rust, Henning W.; Ulbrich, Uwe; Anagnostopoulou, ChristinaThe North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a basic variability mode in the Northern Hemisphere, undergoes changes in its temporal and spatial characteristics, with significant implications on European climate. In this paper, different NAO flavors are distinguished for winter in simulations of a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean GCM, using Self-Organizing Maps, a topology preserving clustering algorithm. These flavors refer to various sub-forms of the NAO pattern, reflecting the range of positions occupied by its action centers, the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. After having defined the NAO flavors, composites of winter temperature and precipitation over Europe are created for each one of them. The results reveal significant differences between NAO flavors in terms of their effects on the European climate. Generally, the eastwardly shifted NAO patterns induce a stronger than average influence on European temperatures. In contrast, the effects of NAO flavors on European precipitation anomalies are less coherent, with various areas responding differently. These results confirm that not only the temporal, but also the spatial variability of NAO is important in regulating European climate. © 2020 by the authors.
- ItemEnergy policy and climate change: A multidisciplinary approach to a global problem(Basel : MDPI, 2015) Dovì, Vincenzo; Battaglini, AntonellaIn the period between the end of the Second World War and the oil crises of 1973 and 1979, the most critical issues in the energy debate were the impending depletion of non-renewable resources and the level of pollution that the environment is able to sustain. [...]
- ItemReliability of inference of directed climate networks using conditional mutual information(Basel : MDPI, 2013) Hlinka, Jaroslav; Hartman, David; Vejmelka, Martin; Runge, Jakob; Marwan, Norbert; Kurths, Jürgen; Paluš, MilanAcross geosciences, many investigated phenomena relate to specific complex systems consisting of intricately intertwined interacting subsystems. Such dynamical complex systems can be represented by a directed graph, where each link denotes an existence of a causal relation, or information exchange between the nodes. For geophysical systems such as global climate, these relations are commonly not theoretically known but estimated from recorded data using causality analysis methods. These include bivariate nonlinear methods based on information theory and their linear counterpart. The trade-off between the valuable sensitivity of nonlinear methods to more general interactions and the potentially higher numerical reliability of linear methods may affect inference regarding structure and variability of climate networks. We investigate the reliability of directed climate networks detected by selected methods and parameter settings, using a stationarized model of dimensionality-reduced surface air temperature data from reanalysis of 60-year global climate records. Overall, all studied bivariate causality methods provided reproducible estimates of climate causality networks, with the linear approximation showing higher reliability than the investigated nonlinear methods. On the example dataset, optimizing the investigated nonlinear methods with respect to reliability increased the similarity of the detected networks to their linear counterparts, supporting the particular hypothesis of the near-linearity of the surface air temperature reanalysis data.