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- ItemReal-time detection of highly oxidized organosulfates and BSOA marker compounds during the F-BEACh 2014 field study(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2017) Brüggemann, Martin; Poulain, Laurent; Held, Andreas; Stelzer, Torsten; Zuth, Christoph; Richters, Stefanie; Mutzel, Anke; van Pinxteren, Dominik; Iinuma, Yoshiteru; Katkevica, Sarmite; Rabe, René; Herrmann, Hartmut; Hoffmann, ThorstenThe chemical composition of ambient organic aerosols was analyzed using complementary mass spectrometric techniques during a field study in central Europe in July 2014 (Fichtelgebirge – Biogenic Emission and Aerosol Chemistry, F-BEACh 2014). Among several common biogenic secondary organic aerosol (BSOA) marker compounds, 93 acidic oxygenated hydrocarbons were detected with elevated abundances and were thus attributed to be characteristic for the organic aerosol mass at the site. Monoterpene measurements exhibited median mixing ratios of 1.6 and 0.8 ppbV for in and above canopy levels respectively. Nonetheless, concentrations for early-generation oxidation products were rather low, e.g., pinic acid (c = 4.7 (±2.5) ng m−3). In contrast, high concentrations were found for later-generation photooxidation products such as 3-methyl-1,2,3-butanetricarboxylic acid (MBTCA, c = 13.8 (±9.0) ng m−3) and 3-carboxyheptanedioic acid (c = 10.2 (±6.6) ng m−3), suggesting that aged aerosol masses were present during the campaign period. In agreement, HYSPLIT trajectory calculations indicate that most of the arriving air masses traveled long distances (> 1500 km) over land with high solar radiation. In addition, around 47 % of the detected compounds from filter sample analysis contained sulfur, confirming a rather high anthropogenic impact on biogenic emissions and their oxidation processes. Among the sulfur-containing compounds, several organosulfates, nitrooxy organosulfates, and highly oxidized organosulfates (HOOS) were tentatively identified by high-resolution mass spectrometry. Correlations among HOOS, sulfate, and highly oxidized multifunctional organic compounds (HOMs) support the hypothesis of previous studies that HOOS are formed by reactions of gas-phase HOMs with particulate sulfate. Moreover, periods with high relative humidity indicate that aqueous-phase chemistry might play a major role in HOOS production. However, for dryer periods, coinciding signals for HOOS and gas-phase peroxyradicals (RO2•) were observed, suggesting RO2• to be involved in HOOS formation.
- ItemDetecting impacts of extreme events with ecological in situ monitoring networks(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2017) Mahecha, Miguel D.; Gans, Fabian; Sippel, Sebastian; Donges, Jonathan F.; Kaminski, Thomas; Metzger, Stefan; Migliavacca, Mirco; Papale, Dario; Rammig, Anja; Zscheischler, Jakob; Arneth, AlmutExtreme hydrometeorological conditions typically impact ecophysiological processes on land. Satellite-based observations of the terrestrial biosphere provide an important reference for detecting and describing the spatiotemporal development of such events. However, in-depth investigations of ecological processes during extreme events require additional in situ observations. The question is whether the density of existing ecological in situ networks is sufficient for analysing the impact of extreme events, and what are expected event detection rates of ecological in situ networks of a given size. To assess these issues, we build a baseline of extreme reductions in the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR), identified by a new event detection method tailored to identify extremes of regional relevance. We then investigate the event detection success rates of hypothetical networks of varying sizes. Our results show that large extremes can be reliably detected with relatively small networks, but also reveal a linear decay of detection probabilities towards smaller extreme events in log–log space. For instance, networks with ≈ 100 randomly placed sites in Europe yield a ≥ 90 % chance of detecting the eight largest (typically very large) extreme events; but only a ≥ 50 % chance of capturing the 39 largest events. These findings are consistent with probability-theoretic considerations, but the slopes of the decay rates deviate due to temporal autocorrelation and the exact implementation of the extreme event detection algorithm. Using the examples of AmeriFlux and NEON, we then investigate to what degree ecological in situ networks can capture extreme events of a given size. Consistent with our theoretical considerations, we find that today's systematically designed networks (i.e. NEON) reliably detect the largest extremes, but that the extreme event detection rates are not higher than would be achieved by randomly designed networks. Spatio-temporal expansions of ecological in situ monitoring networks should carefully consider the size distribution characteristics of extreme events if the aim is also to monitor the impacts of such events in the terrestrial biosphere.
- ItemVHF antenna pattern characterization by the observation of meteor head echoes(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2017) Renkwitz, Toralf; Schult, Carsten; Latteck, RalphThe Middle Atmosphere Alomar Radar System (MAARSY) with its active phased array antenna is designed and used for studies of phenomena in the mesosphere and lower atmosphere. The flexible beam forming and steering combined with a large aperture array allows for observations with a high temporal and angular resolution. For both the analysis of the radar data and the configuration of experiments, the actual radiation pattern needs to be known. For that purpose, various simulations as well as passive and active experiments have been conducted. Here, results of meteor head echo observations are presented, which allow us to derive detailed information of the actual radiation pattern for different beam-pointing positions and the current health status of the entire radar. For MAARSY, the described method offers robust beam pointing and width estimations for a minimum of a few days of observations.
- ItemCalibration of Raman lidar water vapor profiles by means of AERONET photometer observations and GDAS meteorological data(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2018) Dai, Guangyao; Althausen, Dietrich; Hofer, Julian; Engelmann, Ronny; Seifert, Patric; Bühl, Johannes; Mamouri, Rodanthi-Elisavet; Wu, Songhua; Ansmann, AlbertWe present a practical method to continuously calibrate Raman lidar observations of water vapor mixing ratio profiles. The water vapor profile measured with the multiwavelength polarization Raman lidar PollyXT is calibrated by means of co-located AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) sun photometer observations and Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) temperature and pressure profiles. This method is applied to lidar observations conducted during the Cyprus Cloud Aerosol and Rain Experiment (CyCARE) in Limassol, Cyprus. We use the GDAS temperature and pressure profiles to retrieve the water vapor density. In the next step, the precipitable water vapor from the lidar observations is used for the calibration of the lidar measurements with the sun photometer measurements. The retrieved calibrated water vapor mixing ratio from the lidar measurements has a relative uncertainty of 11 % in which the error is mainly caused by the error of the sun photometer measurements. During CyCARE, nine measurement cases with cloud-free and stable meteorological conditions are selected to calculate the precipitable water vapor from the lidar and the sun photometer observations. The ratio of these two precipitable water vapor values yields the water vapor calibration constant. The calibration constant for the PollyXT Raman lidar is 6.56 g kg−1 ± 0.72 g kg−1 (with a statistical uncertainty of 0.08 g kg−1 and an instrumental uncertainty of 0.72 g kg−1). To check the quality of the water vapor calibration, the water vapor mixing ratio profiles from the simultaneous nighttime observations with Raman lidar and Vaisala radiosonde sounding are compared. The correlation of the water vapor mixing ratios from these two instruments is determined by using all of the 19 simultaneous nighttime measurements during CyCARE. Excellent agreement with the slope of 1.01 and the R2 of 0.99 is found. One example is presented to demonstrate the full potential of a well-calibrated Raman lidar. The relative humidity profiles from lidar, GDAS (simulation) and radiosonde are compared, too. It is found that the combination of water vapor mixing ratio and GDAS temperature profiles allow us to derive relative humidity profiles with the relative uncertainty of 10–20 %.
- ItemOn deeper human dimensions in Earth system analysis and modelling(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2018) Gerten, Dieter; Schönfeld, Martin; Schauberger, BernhardWhile humanity is altering planet Earth at unprecedented magnitude and speed, representation of the cultural driving factors and their dynamics in models of the Earth system is limited. In this review and perspectives paper, we argue that more or less distinct environmental value sets can be assigned to religion – a deeply embedded feature of human cultures, here defined as collectively shared belief in something sacred. This assertion renders religious theories, practices and actors suitable for studying cultural facets of anthropogenic Earth system change, especially regarding deeper, non-materialistic motivations that ask about humans' self-understanding in the Anthropocene epoch. We sketch a modelling landscape and outline some research primers, encompassing the following elements: (i) extensions of existing Earth system models by quantitative relationships between religious practices and biophysical processes, building on databases that allow for (mathematical) formalisation of such knowledge; (ii) design of new model types that specifically represent religious morals, actors and activities as part of co-evolutionary human–environment dynamics; and (iii) identification of research questions of humanitarian relevance that are underrepresented in purely economic–technocratic modelling and scenario paradigms. While this analysis is by necessity heuristic and semi-cohesive, we hope that it will act as a stimulus for further interdisciplinary and systematic research on the immaterial dimension of humanity's imprint on the Earth system, both qualitatively and quantitatively.
- ItemEstimating global cropland production from 1961 to 2010(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2017) Han, Pengfei; Zeng, Ning; Zhao, Fang; Lin, XiaohuiGlobal cropland net primary production (NPP) has tripled over the last 50 years, contributing 17–45 % to the increase in global atmospheric CO2 seasonal amplitude. Although many regional-scale comparisons have been made between statistical data and modeling results, long-term national comparisons across global croplands are scarce due to the lack of detailed spatiotemporal management data. Here, we conducted a simulation study of global cropland NPP from 1961 to 2010 using a process-based model called Vegetation–Global Atmosphere–Soil (VEGAS) and compared the results with Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) statistical data on both continental and country scales. According to the FAO data, the global cropland NPP was 1.3, 1.8, 2.2, 2.6, 3.0, and 3.6 PgC yr−1 in the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s, respectively. The VEGAS model captured these major trends on global and continental scales. The NPP increased most notably in the US Midwest, western Europe, and the North China Plain and increased modestly in Africa and Oceania. However, significant biases remained in some regions such as Africa and Oceania, especially in temporal evolution. This finding is not surprising as VEGAS is the first global carbon cycle model with full parameterization representing the Green Revolution. To improve model performance for different major regions, we modified the default values of management intensity associated with the agricultural Green Revolution differences across various regions to better match the FAO statistical data at the continental level and for selected countries. Across all the selected countries, the updated results reduced the RMSE from 19.0 to 10.5 TgC yr−1 (∼ 45 % decrease). The results suggest that these regional differences in model parameterization are due to differences in socioeconomic development. To better explain the past changes and predict the future trends, it is important to calibrate key parameters on regional scales and develop data sets for land management history.
- ItemNon-linear intensification of Sahel rainfall as a possible dynamic response to future warming(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2017) Schewe, Jacob; Levermann, AndersProjections of the response of Sahel rainfall to future global warming diverge significantly. Meanwhile, paleoclimatic records suggest that Sahel rainfall is capable of abrupt transitions in response to gradual forcing. Here we present climate modeling evidence for the possibility of an abrupt intensification of Sahel rainfall under future climate change. Analyzing 30 coupled global climate model simulations, we identify seven models where central Sahel rainfall increases by 40 to 300% over the 21st century, owing to a northward expansion of the West African monsoon domain. Rainfall in these models is non-linearly related to sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Atlantic and Mediterranean moisture source regions, intensifying abruptly beyond a certain SST warming level. We argue that this behavior is consistent with a self-amplifying dynamic–thermodynamical feedback, implying that the gradual increase in oceanic moisture availability under warming could trigger a sudden intensification of monsoon rainfall far inland of today's core monsoon region.
- ItemSustainable use of renewable resources in a stylized social–ecological network model under heterogeneous resource distribution(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2017) Barfuss, Wolfram; Donges, Jonathan F.; Wiedermann, Marc; Lucht, WolfgangHuman societies depend on the resources ecosystems provide. Particularly since the last century, human activities have transformed the relationship between nature and society at a global scale. We study this coevolutionary relationship by utilizing a stylized model of private resource use and social learning on an adaptive network. The latter process is based on two social key dynamics beyond economic paradigms: boundedly rational imitation of resource use strategies and homophily in the formation of social network ties. The private and logistically growing resources are harvested with either a sustainable (small) or non-sustainable (large) effort. We show that these social processes can have a profound influence on the environmental state, such as determining whether the private renewable resources collapse from overuse or not. Additionally, we demonstrate that heterogeneously distributed regional resource capacities shift the critical social parameters where this resource extraction system collapses. We make these points to argue that, in more advanced coevolutionary models of the planetary social–ecological system, such socio-cultural phenomena as well as regional resource heterogeneities should receive attention in addition to the processes represented in established Earth system and integrated assessment models
- ItemAnalytically tractable climate–carbon cycle feedbacks under 21st century anthropogenic forcing(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2018) Lade, Steven J.; Donges, Jonathan F.; Fetzer, Ingo; Anderies, John M.; Beer, Christian; Cornell, Sarah E.; Gasser, Thomas; Norberg, Jon; Richardson, Katherine; Rockström, Johan; Steffen, WillChanges to climate–carbon cycle feedbacks may significantly affect the Earth system's response to greenhouse gas emissions. These feedbacks are usually analysed from numerical output of complex and arguably opaque Earth system models. Here, we construct a stylised global climate–carbon cycle model, test its output against comprehensive Earth system models, and investigate the strengths of its climate–carbon cycle feedbacks analytically. The analytical expressions we obtain aid understanding of carbon cycle feedbacks and the operation of the carbon cycle. Specific results include that different feedback formalisms measure fundamentally the same climate–carbon cycle processes; temperature dependence of the solubility pump, biological pump, and CO2 solubility all contribute approximately equally to the ocean climate–carbon feedback; and concentration–carbon feedbacks may be more sensitive to future climate change than climate–carbon feedbacks. Simple models such as that developed here also provide "workbenches" for simple but mechanistically based explorations of Earth system processes, such as interactions and feedbacks between the planetary boundaries, that are currently too uncertain to be included in comprehensive Earth system models.
- ItemChanges in crop yields and their variability at different levels of global warming(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2018) Ostberg, Sebastian; Schewe, Jacob; Childers, Katelin; Frieler, KatjaAn assessment of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming is crucial to inform the policy discussion about mitigation targets, as well as for the economic evaluation of climate change impacts. Integrated assessment models often use global mean temperature change (ΔGMT) as a sole measure of climate change and, therefore, need to describe impacts as a function of ΔGMT. There is already a well-established framework for the scalability of regional temperature and precipitation changes with ΔGMT. It is less clear to what extent more complex biological or physiological impacts such as crop yield changes can also be described in terms of ΔGMT, even though such impacts may often be more directly relevant for human livelihoods than changes in the physical climate. Here we show that crop yield projections can indeed be described in terms of ΔGMT to a large extent, allowing for a fast estimation of crop yield changes for emissions scenarios not originally covered by climate and crop model projections. We use an ensemble of global gridded crop model simulations for the four major staple crops to show that the scenario dependence is a minor component of the overall variance of projected yield changes at different levels of ΔGMT. In contrast, the variance is dominated by the spread across crop models. Varying CO2 concentrations are shown to explain only a minor component of crop yield variability at different levels of global warming. In addition, we find that the variability in crop yields is expected to increase with increasing warming in many world regions. We provide, for each crop model, geographical patterns of mean yield changes that allow for a simplified description of yield changes under arbitrary pathways of global mean temperature and CO2 changes, without the need for additional climate and crop model simulations.