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End date: 2019 × DDC: 550 × Version: publishedVersion × Publisher: London : Nature Publishing Group ×

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    Early-warning signals for Dansgaard-Oeschger events in a high-resolution ice core record
    (London : Nature Publishing Group, 2018) Boers, N.
    The Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events, as observed in oxygen isotope ratios from the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) record, are an outstanding example of past abrupt climate transitions. Their physical cause remains debated, and previous research indicated that they are not preceded by classical early-warning signals (EWS). Subsequent research hypothesized that the DO events are caused by bifurcations of physical mechanisms operating at decadal timescales, and proposed to search for EWS in the high-frequency fluctuation levels. Here, a time series with 5-year resolution is obtained from the raw NGRIP record, and significant numbers of EWS in terms of variance and autocorrelation increases are revealed in the decadal-scale variability. Wavelet analysis indicates that the EWS are most pronounced in the 10-50-year periodicity band, confirming the above hypothesis. The DO events are hence neither directly noise-induced nor purely externally forced, which provides valuable constraints regarding potential physical causes.
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    Two-thirds of global cropland area impacted by climate oscillations
    (London : Nature Publishing Group, 2018) Heino, M.; Puma, M.J.; Ward, P.J.; Gerten, D.; Heck, V.; Siebert, S.; Kummu, M.
    The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) peaked strongly during the boreal winter 2015-2016, leading to food insecurity in many parts of Africa, Asia and Latin America. Besides ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are known to impact crop yields worldwide. Here we assess for the first time in a unified framework the relationships between ENSO, IOD and NAO and simulated crop productivity at the sub-country scale. Our findings reveal that during 1961-2010, crop productivity is significantly influenced by at least one large-scale climate oscillation in two-thirds of global cropland area. Besides observing new possible links, especially for NAO in Africa and the Middle East, our analyses confirm several known relationships between crop productivity and these oscillations. Our results improve the understanding of climatological crop productivity drivers, which is essential for enhancing food security in many of the most vulnerable places on the planet.
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    The effect of acid-base clustering and ions on the growth of atmospheric nano-particles
    (London : Nature Publishing Group, 2016) Lehtipalo, Katrianne; Rondo, Linda; Kontkanen, Jenni; Schobesberger, Siegfried; Jokinen, Tuija; Sarnela, Nina; Kürten, Andreas; Ehrhart, Sebastian; Franchin, Alessandro; Nieminen, Tuomo; Kulmala, Markku; Riccobono, Francesco; Sipila, Mikko; Yli-Juuti, Taina; Duplissy, Jonathan; Adamov, Alexey; Ahlm, Lars; Almeida, Joa˜o; Amorim, Antonio; Bianchi, Federico; Breitenlechner, Martin; Dommen, Josef; Downard, Andrew J.; Dunne, Eimear M.; Flagan, Richard C.; Guida, Roberto; Hakala, Jani; Hansel, Armin; Jud, Werner; Kangasluoma, Juha; Kerminen, Veli-Matti; Keskinen, Helmi; Kim, Jaeseok; Kirkby, Jasper; Kupc, Agnieszka; Kupiainen-Määttä, Oona; Laaksonen, Ari; Lawler, Michael J.; Leiminger, Markus; Mathot, Serge; Olenius, Tinja; Ortega, Ismael K.; Onnela, Antti; Petäjä, Tuukka; Praplan, Arnaud; Rissanen, Matti P.; Ruuskanen, Taina; Santos, Filipe D.; Schallhart, Simon; Schnitzhofer, Ralf; Simon, Mario; Smith, James N.; Tröstl, Jasmin; Tsagkogeorgas, Georgios; Tomé, António; Vaattovaara, Petri; Vehkamäki, Hanna; Vrtala, Aron E.; Wagner, Paul E.; Williamson, Christina; Wimmer, Daniela; Winkler, Paul M.; Virtanen, Annele; Donahue, Neil M.; Carslaw, Kenneth S.; Baltensperger, Urs; Riipinen, Ilona; Curtius, Joachim; Worsnop, Douglas R.; Kulmala, Markku
    The growth of freshly formed aerosol particles can be the bottleneck in their survival to cloud condensation nuclei. It is therefore crucial to understand how particles grow in the atmosphere. Insufficient experimental data has impeded a profound understanding of nano-particle growth under atmospheric conditions. Here we study nano-particle growth in the CLOUD (Cosmics Leaving OUtdoors Droplets) chamber, starting from the formation of molecular clusters. We present measured growth rates at sub-3 nm sizes with different atmospherically relevant concentrations of sulphuric acid, water, ammonia and dimethylamine. We find that atmospheric ions and small acid-base clusters, which are not generally accounted for in the measurement of sulphuric acid vapour, can participate in the growth process, leading to enhanced growth rates. The availability of compounds capable of stabilizing sulphuric acid clusters governs the magnitude of these effects and thus the exact growth mechanism. We bring these observations into a coherent framework and discuss their significance in the atmosphere.
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    Ion-induced nucleation of pure biogenic particles
    (London : Nature Publishing Group, 2016) Kirkby, Jasper; Duplissy, Jonathan; Sengupta, Kamalika; Gordon, Hamish; Williamson, Christina; Heinritzi, Martin; Simon, Mario; Yan, Chao; Almeida, João; Tröstl, Jasmin; Nieminen, Tuomo; Ortega, Ismael K.; Wagner, Robert; Adamov, Alexey; Amorim, Antonio; Bernhammer, Anne-Kathrin; Bianchi, Federico; Breitenlechner, Martin; Brilke, Sophia; Chen, Xuemeng; Craven, Jill; Dias, Antonio; Ehrhart, Sebastian; Flagan, Richard C.; Franchin, Alessandro; Fuchs, Claudia; Guida, Roberto; Hakala, Jani; Hoyle, Christopher R.; Jokinen, Tuija; Junninen, Heikki; Kangasluoma, Juha; Kim, Jaeseok; Krapf, Manuel; Kürten, Andreas; Laaksonen, Ari; Lehtipalo, Katrianne; Makhmutov, Vladimir; Mathot, Serge; Molteni, Ugo; Onnela, Antti; Peräkylä, Otso; Piel, Felix; Petäjä, Tuukka; Praplan, Arnaud P.; Pringle, Kirsty; Rap, Alexandru; Richards, Nigel A.D.; Riipinen, Ilona; Rissanen, Matti P.; Rondo, Linda; Sarnela, Nina; Schobesberger, Siegfried; Scott, Catherine E.; Seinfeld, John H.; Sipilä, Mikko; Steiner, Gerhard; Stozhkov, Yuri; Stratmann, Frank; Tomé, Antonio; Virtanen, Annele; Vogel, Alexander L.; Wagner, Andrea C.; Wagner, Paul E.; Weingartner, Ernest; Wimmer, Daniela; Winkler, Paul M.; Ye, Penglin; Zhang, Xuan; Hansel, Armin; Dommen, Josef; Donahue, Neil M.; Worsnop, Douglas R.; Baltensperger, Urs; Kulmala, Markku; Carslaw, Kenneth S.; Curtius, Joachim
    Atmospheric aerosols and their effect on clouds are thought to be important for anthropogenic radiative forcing of the climate, yet remain poorly understood1. Globally, around half of cloud condensation nuclei originate from nucleation of atmospheric vapours2. It is thought that sulfuric acid is essential to initiate most particle formation in the atmosphere3,4, and that ions have a relatively minor role5. Some laboratory studies, however, have reported organic particle formation without the intentional addition of sulfuric acid, although contamination could not be excluded6,7. Here we present evidence for the formation of aerosol particles from highly oxidized biogenic vapours in the absence of sulfuric acid in a large chamber under atmospheric conditions. The highly oxygenated molecules (HOMs) are produced by ozonolysis of α-pinene. We find that ions from Galactic cosmic rays increase the nucleation rate by one to two orders of magnitude compared with neutral nucleation. Our experimental findings are supported by quantum chemical calculations of the cluster binding energies of representative HOMs. Ion-induced nucleation of pure organic particles constitutes a potentially widespread source of aerosol particles in terrestrial environments with low sulfuric acid pollution.
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    Significant radiative impact of volcanic aerosol in the lowermost stratosphere
    (London : Nature Publishing Group, 2015) Andersson, Sandra M.; Martinsson, Bengt G.; Vernier, Jean-Paul; Friberg, Johan; Brenninkmeijer, Carl A.M.; Hermann, Markus; van Velthoven, Peter F.J.; Zahn, Andreas
    Despite their potential to slow global warming, until recently, the radiative forcing associated with volcanic aerosols in the lowermost stratosphere (LMS) had not been considered. Here we study volcanic aerosol changes in the stratosphere using lidar measurements from the NASA CALIPSO satellite and aircraft measurements from the IAGOS-CARIBIC observatory. Between 2008 and 2012 volcanism frequently affected the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere aerosol loadings, whereas the Southern Hemisphere generally had loadings close to background conditions. We show that half of the global stratospheric aerosol optical depth following the Kasatochi, Sarychev and Nabro eruptions is attributable to LMS aerosol. On average, 30% of the global stratospheric aerosol optical depth originated in the LMS during the period 2008–2011. On the basis of the two independent, high-resolution measurement methods, we show that the LMS makes an important contribution to the overall volcanic forcing.
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    Hydroxyl radical-induced formation of highly oxidized organic compounds
    (London : Nature Publishing Group, 2016) Berndt, Torsten; Richters, Stefanie; Jokinen, Tuija; Hyttinen, Noora; Kurtén, Theo; Otkjær, Rasmus V.; Kjaergaard, Henrik G.; Stratmann, Frank; Herrmann, Hartmut; Sipila, Mikko; Kulmala, Markku; Ehn, Mikael
    Explaining the formation of secondary organic aerosol is an intriguing question in atmospheric sciences because of its importance for Earth’s radiation budget and the associated effects on health and ecosystems. A breakthrough was recently achieved in the understanding of secondary organic aerosol formation from ozone reactions of biogenic emissions by the rapid formation of highly oxidized multifunctional organic compounds via autoxidation. However, the important daytime hydroxyl radical reactions have been considered to be less important in this process. Here we report measurements on the reaction of hydroxyl radicals with a- and b-pinene applying improved mass spectrometric methods. Our laboratory results prove that the formation of highly oxidized products from hydroxyl radical reactions proceeds with considerably higher yields than previously reported. Field measurements support these findings. Our results allow for a better description of the diurnal behaviour of the highly oxidized product formation and subsequent secondary organic aerosol formation in the atmosphere.
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    Self-amplified Amazon forest loss due to vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks
    (London : Nature Publishing Group, 2017) Zemp, D.C.; Schleussner, C.-F.; Barbosa, H.M.J.; Hirota, M.; Montade, V.; Sampaio, G.; Staal, A.; Wang-Erlandsson, L.; Rammig, A.
    Reduced rainfall increases the risk of forest dieback, while in return forest loss might intensify regional droughts. The consequences of this vegetation-atmosphere feedback for the stability of the Amazon forest are still unclear. Here we show that the risk of self-amplified Amazon forest loss increases nonlinearly with dry-season intensification. We apply a novel complex-network approach, in which Amazon forest patches are linked by observation-based atmospheric water fluxes. Our results suggest that the risk of self-amplified forest loss is reduced with increasing heterogeneity in the response of forest patches to reduced rainfall. Under dry-season Amazonian rainfall reductions, comparable to Last Glacial Maximum conditions, additional forest loss due to self-amplified effects occurs in 10-13% of the Amazon basin. Although our findings do not indicate that the projected rainfall changes for the end of the twenty-first century will lead to complete Amazon dieback, they suggest that frequent extreme drought events have the potential to destabilize large parts of the Amazon forest.
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    Water scarcity hotspots travel downstream due to human interventions in the 20th and 21st century
    (London : Nature Publishing Group, 2017) Veldkamp, T.I.E.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.; Döll, P.; Gosling, S.N.; Liu, J.; Masaki, Y.; Oki, T.; Ostberg, S.; Pokhrel, Y.; Satoh, Y.; Kim, H.; Ward, P.J.
    Water scarcity is rapidly increasing in many regions. In a novel, multi-model assessment, we examine how human interventions (HI: land use and land cover change, man-made reservoirs and human water use) affected monthly river water availability and water scarcity over the period 1971-2010. Here we show that HI drastically change the critical dimensions of water scarcity, aggravating water scarcity for 8.8% (7.4-16.5%) of the global population but alleviating it for another 8.3% (6.4-15.8%). Positive impacts of HI mostly occur upstream, whereas HI aggravate water scarcity downstream; HI cause water scarcity to travel downstream. Attribution of water scarcity changes to HI components is complex and varies among the hydrological models. Seasonal variation in impacts and dominant HI components is also substantial. A thorough consideration of the spatially and temporally varying interactions among HI components and of uncertainties is therefore crucial for the success of water scarcity adaptation by HI.
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    Reconciling irrigated food production with environmental flows for Sustainable Development Goals implementation
    (London : Nature Publishing Group, 2017) Jägermeyr, J.; Pastor, A.; Biemans, H.; Gerten, D.
    Safeguarding river ecosystems is a precondition for attaining the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) related to water and the environment, while rigid implementation of such policies may hamper achievement of food security. River ecosystems provide life-supporting functions that depend on maintaining environmental flow requirements (EFRs). Here we establish gridded process-based estimates of EFRs and their violation through human water withdrawals. Results indicate that 41% of current global irrigation water use (997 km 3 per year) occurs at the expense of EFRs. If these volumes were to be reallocated to the ecosystems, half of globally irrigated cropland would face production losses of ≥10%, with losses of ∼20-30% of total country production especially in Central and South Asia. However, we explicitly show that improvement of irrigation practices can widely compensate for such losses on a sustainable basis. Integration with rainwater management can even achieve a 10% global net gain. Such management interventions are highlighted to act as a pivotal target in supporting the implementation of the ambitious and seemingly conflicting SDG agenda.
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    MIS-11 duration key to disappearance of the Greenland ice sheet
    (London : Nature Publishing Group, 2017) Robinson, A.; Alvarez-Solas, J.; Calov, R.; Ganopolski, A.; Montoya, M.
    Palaeo data suggest that Greenland must have been largely ice free during Marine Isotope Stage 11 (MIS-11). However, regional summer insolation anomalies were modest during this time compared to MIS-5e, when the Greenland ice sheet likely lost less volume. Thus it remains unclear how such conditions led to an almost complete disappearance of the ice sheet. Here we use transient climate-ice sheet simulations to simultaneously constrain estimates of regional temperature anomalies and Greenland's contribution to the MIS-11 sea-level highstand. We find that Greenland contributed 6.1 m (3.9-7.0 m, 95% credible interval) to sea level, ∼7 kyr after the peak in regional summer temperature anomalies of 2.8 °C (2.1-3.4 °C). The moderate warming produced a mean rate of mass loss in sea-level equivalent of only around 0.4 m per kyr, which means the long duration of MIS-11 interglacial conditions around Greenland was a necessary condition for the ice sheet to disappear almost completely.