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- ItemSensitivity of polar stratospheric ozone loss to uncertainties in chemical reaction kinetics(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2009) Kawa, S.R.; Stolarski, R.S.; Newman, P.A.; Douglass, A.R.; Rex, M.; Hofmann, D.J.; Santee, M.L.; Frieler, K.The impact and significance of uncertainties in model calculations of stratospheric ozone loss resulting from known uncertainty in chemical kinetics parameters is evaluated in trajectory chemistry simulations for the Antarctic and Arctic polar vortices. The uncertainty in modeled ozone loss is derived from Monte Carlo scenario simulations varying the kinetic (reaction and photolysis rate) parameters within their estimated uncertainty bounds. Simulations of a typical winter/spring Antarctic vortex scenario and Match scenarios in the Arctic produce large uncertainty in ozone loss rates and integrated seasonal loss. The simulations clearly indicate that the dominant source of model uncertainty in polar ozone loss is uncertainty in the Cl2O 2 photolysis reaction, which arises from uncertainty in laboratory-measured molecular cross sections at atmospherically important wavelengths. This estimated uncertainty in JCl 2O2 from laboratory measurements seriously hinders our ability to model polar ozone loss within useful quantitative error limits. Atmospheric observations, however, suggest that the Cl2O2 photolysis uncertainty may be less than that derived from the lab data. Comparisons to Match, South Pole ozonesonde, and Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) data all show that the nominal recommended rate simulations agree with data within uncertainties when the Cl2O2 photolysis error is reduced by a factor of two, in line with previous in situ ClOx measurements. Comparisons to simulations using recent cross sections from Pope et al. (2007) are outside the constrained error bounds in each case. Other reactions producing significant sensitivity in polar ozone loss include BrO + ClO and its branching ratios. These uncertainties challenge our confidence in modeling polar ozone depletion and projecting future changes in response to changing halogen emissions and climate. Further laboratory, theoretical, and possibly atmospheric studies are needed.
- ItemCCN measurements at the Princess Elisabeth Antarctica research station during three austral summers(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2019) Herenz, P.; Wex, H.; Mangold, A.; Laffineur, Q.; Gorodetskaya, I.V.; Fleming, Z.L.; Panagi, M.; Stratmann, F.For three austral summer seasons (2013-2016, each from December to February) aerosol particles arriving at the Belgian Antarctic research station Princess Elisabeth (PE) in Dronning Maud Land in East Antarctica were characterized. This included number concentrations of total aerosol particles (N CN ) and cloud condensation nuclei (N CCN ), the particle number size distribution (PNSD), the aerosol particle hygroscopicity, and the influence of the air mass origin on N CN and N CCN . In general N CN was found to range from 40 to 6700cm -3 , with a median of 333cm -3 , while N CCN was found to cover a range between less than 10 and 1300cm-3 for supersaturations (SSs) between 0.1% and 0.7%. It is shown that the aerosol is dominated by the Aitken mode, being characterized by a significant amount of small, and therefore likely secondarily formed, aerosol particles, with 94% and 36% of the aerosol particles smaller than 90 and ≈35nm, respectively. Measurements of the basic meteorological parameters as well as the history of the air masses arriving at the measurement station indicate that the station is influenced by both marine air masses originating from the Southern Ocean and coastal areas around Antarctica (marine events - MEs) and continental air masses (continental events - CEs). CEs, which were defined as instances when the air masses spent at least 90% of the time over the Antarctic continent during the last 10 days prior to arrival at the measurements station, occurred during 61% of the time during which measurements were done. CEs came along with rather constant N CN and N CCN values, which we denote as Antarctic continental background concentrations. MEs, however, cause large fluctuations in N CN and N CCN , with low concentrations likely caused by scavenging due to precipitation and high concentrations likely originating from new particle formation (NPF) based on marine precursors. The application of HYSPLIT back trajectories in form of the potential source contribution function (PSCF) analysis indicate that the region of the Southern Ocean is a potential source of Aitken mode particles. On the basis of PNSDs, together with N CCN measured at an SS of 0.1%, median values for the critical diameter for cloud droplet activation and the aerosol particle hygroscopicity parameter ° were determined to be 110nm and 1, respectively. For particles larger than ĝ‰110nm the Southern Ocean together with parts of the Antarctic ice shelf regions were found to be potential source regions. While the former may contribute sea spray particles directly, the contribution of the latter may be due to the emission of sea salt aerosol particles, released from snow particles from surface snow layers, e.g., during periods of high wind speed, leading to drifting or blowing snow. The region of the Antarctic inland plateau, however, was not found to feature a significant source region for aerosol particles in general or page276 for cloud condensation nuclei measured at the PE station in the austral summer.
- ItemA simple stress-based cliff-calving law(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2019) Schlemm, T.; Levermann, A.Over large coastal regions in Greenland and Antarctica the ice sheet calves directly into the ocean. In contrast to ice-shelf calving, an increase in calving from grounded glaciers contributes directly to sea-level rise. Ice cliffs with a glacier freeboard larger than ≈100 m are currently not observed, but it has been shown that such ice cliffs are increasingly unstable with increasing ice thickness. This cliff calving can constitute a self-amplifying ice loss mechanism that may significantly alter sea-level projections both of Greenland and Antarctica. Here we seek to derive a minimalist stress-based parametrization for cliff calving from grounded glaciers whose freeboards exceed the 100 m stability limit derived in previous studies. This will be an extension of existing calving laws for tidewater glaciers to higher ice cliffs.
To this end we compute the stress field for a glacier with a simplified two-dimensional geometry from the two-dimensional Stokes equation. First we assume a constant yield stress to derive the failure region at the glacier front from the stress field within the glacier. Secondly, we assume a constant response time of ice failure due to exceedance of the yield stress. With this strongly constraining but very simple set of assumptions we propose a cliff-calving law where the calving rate follows a power-law dependence on the freeboard of the ice with exponents between 2 and 3, depending on the relative water depth at the calving front. The critical freeboard below which the ice front is stable decreases with increasing relative water depth of the calving front. For a dry water front it is, for example, 75 m. The purpose of this study is not to provide a comprehensive calving law but to derive a particularly simple equation with a transparent and minimalist set of assumptions.
- ItemScaling of instability timescales of Antarctic outlet glaciers based on one-dimensional similitude analysis(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2019) Levermann, A.; Feldmann, J.Recent observations and ice-dynamic modeling suggest that a marine ice-sheet instability (MISI) might have been triggered in West Antarctica. The corresponding outlet glaciers, Pine Island Glacier (PIG) and Thwaites Glacier (TG), showed significant retreat during at least the last 2 decades. While other regions in Antarctica have the topographic predisposition for the same kind of instability, it is so far unclear how fast these instabilities would unfold if they were initiated. Here we employ the concept of similitude to estimate the characteristic timescales of several potentially MISI-prone outlet glaciers around the Antarctic coast. Our results suggest that TG and PIG have the fastest response time of all investigated outlets, with TG responding about 1.25 to 2 times as fast as PIG, while other outlets around Antarctica would be up to 10 times slower if destabilized. These results have to be viewed in light of the strong assumptions made in their derivation. These include the absence of ice-shelf buttressing, the one-dimensionality of the approach and the uncertainty of the available data. We argue however that the current topographic situation and the physical conditions of the MISI-prone outlet glaciers carry the information of their respective timescale and that this information can be partially extracted through a similitude analysis.
- ItemModeling Antarctic tides in response to ice shelf thinning and retreat(Hoboken, NJ : Blackwell Publishing Ltd, 2014) Rosier, S.H.R.; Green, J.A.M.; Scourse, J.D.; Winkelmann, R.Tides play an important role in ice sheet dynamics by modulating ice stream velocity, fracturing, and moving ice shelves and mixing water beneath them. Any changes in ice shelf extent or thickness will alter the tidal dynamics through modification of water column thickness and coastal topography but these will in turn feed back onto the overall ice shelf stability. Here, we show that removal or reduction in extent and/or thickness of the Ross and Ronne-Filchner ice shelves would have a significant impact on the tides around Antarctica. The Ronne-Filchner appears particularly vulnerable, with an increase in M2 amplitude of over 0.5 m beneath much of the ice shelf potentially leading to tidally induced feedbacks on ice shelf/sheet dynamics. These results highlight the importance of understanding tidal feedbacks on ice shelves/streams due to their influence on ice sheet dynamics.
- ItemA hindcast simulation of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice variability, 1955-2001(Tromsø : Norwegian Polar Institute, 2003) Fichefet, T.; Goosse, H.; Morales Maqueda, M.A.A hindcast simulation of the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice variability during 1955-2001 has been performed with a global, coarse resolution ice-ocean model driven by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis daily surface air temperatures and winds. Both the mean state and variability of the ice packs over the satellite observing period are reasonably well reproduced by the model. Over the 47-year period, the simulated ice area (defined as the total ice-covered oceanic area) in each hemisphere experiences large decadal variability together with a decreasing trend of ∼1% per decade. In the Southern Hemisphere, this trend is mostly caused by an abrupt retreat of the ice cover during the second half of the 1970s and the beginning of the 1980s. The modelled ice volume also exhibits pronounced decadal variability, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. Besides these fluctuations, we detected a downward trend in Arctic ice volume of 1.8% per decade and an upward trend in Antarctic ice volume of 1.5% per decade. However, caution must be exercised when interpreting these trends because of the shortness of the simulation and the strong decadal variations. Furthermore, sensitivity experiments have revealed that the trend in Antarctic ice volume is model-dependent.
- ItemInterglacials of the last 800,000 years(Hoboken, NJ : Blackwell Publishing Ltd, 2016) Berger, B.; Crucifix, M.; Hodell, D.A.; Mangili, C.; McManus, J.F.; Otto-Bliesner, B.; Pol, K.; Raynaud, D.; Skinner, L.C.; Tzedakis, P.C.; Wolff, E.W.; Yin, Q.Z.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Barbante, C.; Brovkin, V.; Cacho, I.; Capron, E.; Ferretti, P.; Ganopolski, A.; Grimalt, J.O.; Hönisch, B.; Kawamura, K.A.; Landais, A.; Margari, V.; Martrat, B.; Masson-Delmotte, V.; Mokeddem, Z.; Parrenin, F.; Prokopenko, A.A.; Rashid, H.; Schulz, M.; Vazquez Riveiros, N.
- ItemCombustion of available fossil fuel resources sufficient to eliminate the Antarctic Ice Sheet(Washington, DC [u.a.] : Assoc., 2015) Winkelmann, Ricarda; Levermann, Anders; Ridgwell, Andy; Caldeira, KenThe Antarctic Ice Sheet stores water equivalent to 58 m in global sea-level rise. We show in simulations using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model that burning the currently attainable fossil fuel resources is sufficient to eliminate the ice sheet. With cumulative fossil fuel emissions of 10,000 gigatonnes of carbon (GtC), Antarctica is projected to become almost ice-free with an average contribution to sea-level rise exceeding 3 m per century during the first millennium. Consistent with recent observations and simulations, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet becomes unstable with 600 to 800 GtC of additional carbon emissions. Beyond this additional carbon release, the destabilization of ice basins in both West and East Antarctica results in a threshold increase in global sea level. Unabated carbon emissions thus threaten the Antarctic Ice Sheet in its entirety with associated sea-level rise that far exceeds that of all other possible sources.
- ItemStabilizing the West Antarctic Ice Sheet by surface mass deposition(Washington, DC [u.a.] : Assoc., 2019) Feldmann, Johannes; Levermann, Anders; Mengel, MatthiasThere is evidence that a self-sustaining ice discharge from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) has started, potentially leading to its disintegration. The associated sea level rise of more than 3m would pose a serious challenge to highly populated areas including metropolises such as Calcutta, Shanghai, New York City, and Tokyo. Here, we show that the WAIS may be stabilized through mass deposition in coastal regions around Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers. In our numerical simulations, a minimum of 7400 Gt of additional snowfall stabilizes the flow if applied over a short period of 10 years onto the region (−2 mm year−1 sea level equivalent). Mass deposition at a lower rate increases the intervention time and the required total amount of snow. We find that the precise conditions of such an operation are crucial, and potential benefits need to be weighed against environmental hazards, future risks, and enormous technical challenges. Copyright © 2019 The Authors,