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- ItemThe influence of aggregation and statistical post‐processing on the subseasonal predictability of European temperatures(Weinheim [u.a.] : Wiley, 2020) Straaten, Chiem; Whan, Kirien; Coumou, Dim; Hurk, Bart; Schmeits, MauriceThe succession of European surface weather patterns has limited predictability because disturbances quickly transfer to the large-scale flow. Some aggregated statistics, however, such as the average temperature exceeding a threshold, can have extended predictability when adequate spatial scales, temporal scales and thresholds are chosen. This study benchmarks how the forecast skill horizon of probabilistic 2-m temperature forecasts from the subseasonal forecast system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) evolves with varying scales and thresholds. We apply temporal aggregation by rolling-window averaging and spatial aggregation by hierarchical clustering. We verify 20 years of re-forecasts against the E-OBS dataset and find that European predictability extends at maximum into the fourth week. Simple aggregation and standard statistical post-processing extend the forecast skill horizon with two and three skilful days on average, respectively. The intuitive notion that higher levels of aggregation capture large-scale and low-frequency variability and can therefore tap into extended predictability holds in many cases. However, we show that the effect can be saturated and that there exist regional optimums beyond which extra aggregation reduces the forecast skill horizon. We expect such windows of predictability to result from specific physical mechanisms that only modulate and extend predictability locally. To optimize subseasonal forecasts for Europe, aggregation should thus be limited in certain cases.
- ItemQuantifying Southern Annular Mode paleo-reconstruction skill in a model framework(Katlenburg-Lindau : Copernicus Ges., 2021) Huiskamp, Willem; McGregor, ShaynePast attempts to reconstruct the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) using paleo-archives have resulted in records which can differ significantly from one another prior to the window over which the proxies are calibrated. This study attempts to quantify not only the skill with which we may expect to reconstruct the SAM but also to assess the contribution of regional bias in proxy selection and the impact of non-stationary proxy–SAM teleconnections on a resulting reconstruction. This is achieved using a pseudoproxy framework with output from the GFDL CM2.1 global climate model. Reconstructions derived from precipitation fields perform better, with 89 % of the reconstructions calibrated over a 61 year window able to reproduce at least 50 % of the inter-annual variance in the SAM, as opposed to just 25 % for surface air temperature (SAT)-derived reconstructions. Non-stationarity of proxy–SAM teleconnections, as defined here, plays a small role in reconstructions, but the range in reconstruction skill is not negligible. Reconstructions are most likely to be skilful when proxies are sourced from a geographically broad region with a network size of at least 70 proxies.
- ItemEarly Warning of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Phase Transition Using Complex Network Analysis(Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2021) Lu, Zhenghui; Yuan, Naiming; Yang, Qing; Ma, Zhuguo; Kurths, JürgenObtaining an efficient prediction of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phase transition is a worldwide challenge. Here, we employed the climate network analysis to uncover early warning signals prior to a PDO phase transition. This way an examination of cooperative behavior in the PDO region revealed an enhanced signal that propagated from the western Pacific to the northwest coast of North America. The detection of this signal corresponds very well to the time when the upper ocean heat content in the off-equatorial northwestern tropical Pacific reaches a threshold, in which case a PDO phase transition may be expected with the arising of the next El Ni urn:x-wiley:00948276:media:grl61986:grl61986-math-0001o/La Niurn:x-wiley:00948276:media:grl61986:grl61986-math-0002 a event. The objectively detected early warning signal successfully forewarned all the six PDO phase transitions from the 1890–2000, and also underpinned the possible PDO phase transition around 2015, which may be triggered by the strong El Niurn:x-wiley:00948276:media:grl61986:grl61986-math-0003o event in 2015–2016.
- ItemResults of the third Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (MISMIP+)(Katlenburg-Lindau : Copernicus, 2020) Cornford, Stephen L.; Seroussi, Helene; Asay-Davis, Xylar S.; Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar; Arthern, Rob; Borstad, Chris; Christmann, Julia; dos Santos, Thiago Dias; Feldmann, Johannes; Goldberg, Daniel; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Humbert, Angelika; Kleiner, Thomas; Leguy, Gunter; Lipscomb, William H.; Merino, Nacho; Durand, Gaël; Morlighem, Mathieu; Pollard, David; Rückamp, Martin; Williams, C. Rosie; Yu, HongjuWe present the result of the third Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project, MISMIP+. MISMIP+ is intended to be a benchmark for ice-flow models which include fast sliding marine ice streams and floating ice shelves and in particular a treatment of viscous stress that is sufficient to model buttressing, where upstream ice flow is restrained by a downstream ice shelf. A set of idealized experiments first tests that models are able to maintain a steady state with the grounding line located on a retrograde slope due to buttressing and then explore scenarios where a reduction in that buttressing causes ice stream acceleration, thinning, and grounding line retreat. The majority of participating models passed the first test and then produced similar responses to the loss of buttressing. We find that the most important distinction between models in this particular type of simulation is in the treatment of sliding at the bed, with other distinctions - notably the difference between the simpler and more complete treatments of englacial stress but also the differences between numerical methods - taking a secondary role. © 2020 Wolters Kluwer Medknow Publications. All rights reserved.
- ItemTowards a more consistent eco-hydrological modelling through multi-objective calibration: a case study in the Andean Vilcanota River basin, Peru(Wallingford : IAHS Press, 2021) Fernandez-Palomino, Carlos Antonio; Hattermann, Fred F.; Krysanova, Valentina; Vega-Jácome, Fiorella; Bronstert, AxelMost hydrological studies rely on a model calibrated using discharge alone. However, judging the model reliability based on such calibration is problematic, as it does not guarantee the correct representation of internal hydrological processes. This study aims (a) to develop a comprehensive multi-objective calibration framework using remote sensing vegetation data and hydrological signatures (flow duration curve–FDC, and baseflow index) in addition to discharge, and (b) to apply this framework for calibration of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in a typical Andean catchment. Overall, our calibration approach outperformed traditional discharge-based and FDC signature-based calibration strategies in terms of vegetation, streamflow, and flow partitioning simulation. New hydrological insights for the region are the following: baseflow is the main component of the streamflow sustaining the long dry-season flow, and pasture areas offer higher water yield and baseflow than other land-cover types. The proposed approach could be used in other data-scarce regions with complex topography. © 2020 IAHS.
- ItemIncremental improvements of 2030 targets insufficient to achieve the Paris Agreement goals(Göttingen : Copernicus Publ., 2020) Geiges, Andreas; Nauels, Alexander; Yanguas Parra, Paola; Andrijevic, Marina; Hare, William; Pfleiderer, Peter; Schaeffer, Michiel; Schleussner, Carl-FriedrichCurrent global mitigation ambition up to 2030 under the Paris Agreement, reflected in the National Determined Contributions (NDCs), is insufficient to achieve the agreement's 1.5 °C long-term temperature limit. As governments are preparing new and updated NDCs for 2020, the question as to how much collective improvement is achieved is a pivotal one for the credibility of the international climate regime. The recent Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has assessed a wide range of scenarios that achieve the 1.5 °C limit. Those pathways are characterised by a substantial increase in near-term action and total greenhouse gas (GHG) emission levels about 50 % lower than what is implied by current NDCs. Here we assess the outcomes of different scenarios of NDC updating that fall short of achieving this 1.5 °C benchmark. We find that incremental improvements in reduction targets, even if achieved globally, are insufficient to align collective ambition with the goals of the Paris Agreement. We provide estimates for global mean temperature increase by 2100 for different incremental NDC update scenarios and illustrate climate impacts under those median scenarios for extreme temperature, long-term sea-level rise and economic damages for the most vulnerable countries. Under the assumption of maintaining ambition as reflected in current NDCs up to 2100 and beyond, we project a reduction in the gross domestic product (GDP) in tropical countries of around 60 % compared to a no-climate-change scenario and median long-term sea-level rise of close to 2 m in 2300. About half of these impacts can be avoided by limiting warming to 1.5 °C or below. Scenarios of more incremental NDC improvements do not lead to comparable reductions in climate impacts. An increase in aggregated NDC ambition of big emitters by 33 % in 2030 does not reduce presented climate impacts by more than about half compared to limiting warming to 1.5 °C. Our results underscore that a transformational increase in 2030 ambition is required to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement and avoid the worst impacts of climate change. © 2020 SPIE. All rights reserved.
- ItemPotential for Early Forecast of Moroccan Wheat Yields Based on Climatic Drivers(Hoboken, NJ [u.a.] : Wiley, 2020) Lehmann, J.; Kretschmer, M.; Schauberger, B.; Wechsung, F.Wheat production plays an important role in Morocco. Current wheat forecast systems use weather and vegetation data during the crop growing phase, thus limiting the earliest possible release date to early spring. However, Morocco's wheat production is mostly rainfed and thus strongly tied to fluctuations in rainfall, which in turn depend on slowly evolving climate dynamics. This offers a source of predictability at longer time scales. Using physically guided causal discovery algorithms, we extract climate precursors for wheat yield variability from gridded fields of geopotential height and sea surface temperatures which show potential for accurate yield forecasts already in December, with around 50% explained variance in an out-of-sample cross validation. The detected interactions are physically meaningful and consistent with documented ocean-atmosphere feedbacks. Reliable yield forecasts at such long lead times could provide farmers and policy makers with necessary information for early action and strategic adaptation measurements to support food security. ©2020. The Authors.
- ItemIntegrating Life Cycle and Impact Assessments to Map Food's Cumulative Environmental Footprint(Amsterdam : Elsevier, 2020) Kuempel, Caitlin D.; Frazier, Melanie; Nash, Kirsty L.; Jacobsen, Nis Sand; Williams, David R.; Blanchard, Julia L.; Cottrell, Richard S.; McIntyre, Peter B.; Moran, Daniel; Bouwman, Lex; Froehlich, Halley E.; Gephart, Jessica A.; Metian, Marc; Többen, Johannes; Halpern, Benjamin S.Producing food exerts pressures on the environment. Understanding the location and magnitude of food production is key to reducing the impacts of these pressures on nature and people. In this Perspective, Kuempel et al. outline an approach for integrating life cycle assessment and cumulative impact mapping data and methodologies to map the cumulative environmental pressure of food systems. The approach enables quantification of current and potential future environmental pressures, which are needed to reduce the net impact of feeding humanity. © 2020 The AuthorsFeeding a growing, increasingly affluent population while limiting environmental pressures of food production is a central challenge for society. Understanding the location and magnitude of food production is key to addressing this challenge because pressures vary substantially across food production types. Applying data and models from life cycle assessment with the methodologies for mapping cumulative environmental impacts of human activities (hereafter cumulative impact mapping) provides a powerful approach to spatially map the cumulative environmental pressure of food production in a way that is consistent and comprehensive across food types. However, these methodologies have yet to be combined. By synthesizing life cycle assessment and cumulative impact mapping methodologies, we provide guidance for comprehensively and cumulatively mapping the environmental pressures (e.g., greenhouse gas emissions, spatial occupancy, and freshwater use) associated with food production systems. This spatial approach enables quantification of current and potential future environmental pressures, which is needed for decision makers to create more sustainable food policies and practices. © 2020 The Authors
- ItemResolving ecological feedbacks on the ocean carbon sink in Earth system models(Göttingen : Copernicus Publ., 2021) Armstrong McKay, David I.; Cornell, Sarah E.; Richardson, Katherine; Rockström, JohanThe Earth's oceans are one of the largest sinks in the Earth system for anthropogenic CO2 emissions, acting as a negative feedback on climate change. Earth system models project that climate change will lead to a weakening ocean carbon uptake rate as warm water holds less dissolved CO2 and as biological productivity declines. However, most Earth system models do not incorporate the impact of warming on bacterial remineralisation and rely on simplified representations of plankton ecology that do not resolve the potential impact of climate change on ecosystem structure or elemental stoichiometry. Here, we use a recently developed extension of the cGEnIE (carbon-centric Grid Enabled Integrated Earth system model), ecoGEnIE, featuring a trait-based scheme for plankton ecology (ECOGEM), and also incorporate cGEnIE's temperature-dependent remineralisation (TDR) scheme. This enables evaluation of the impact of both ecological dynamics and temperature-dependent remineralisation on particulate organic carbon (POC) export in response to climate change. We find that including TDR increases cumulative POC export relative to default runs due to increased nutrient recycling (+∼1.3 %), whereas ECOGEM decreases cumulative POC export by enabling a shift to smaller plankton classes (−∼0.9 %). However, interactions with carbonate chemistry cause opposite sign responses for the carbon sink in both cases: TDR leads to a smaller sink relative to default runs (−∼1.0 %), whereas ECOGEM leads to a larger sink (+∼0.2 %). Combining TDR and ECOGEM results in a net strengthening of POC export (+∼0.1 %) and a net reduction in carbon sink (−∼0.7 %) relative to default. These results illustrate the degree to which ecological dynamics and biodiversity modulate the strength of the biological pump, and demonstrate that Earth system models need to incorporate ecological complexity in order to resolve non-linear climate–biosphere feedbacks.
- ItemISMIP6 Antarctica: A multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century(Katlenburg-Lindau : Copernicus, 2020) Seroussi, Hélène; Nowicki, Sophie; Payne, Antony J.; Goelzer, Heiko; Lipscomb, William H.; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Agosta, Cécile; Albrecht, Torsten; Asay-Davis, Xylar; Barthel, Alice; Calov, Reinhard; Cullather, Richard; Dumas, Christophe; Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K.; Gladstone, Rupert; Golledge, Nicholas R.; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Greve, Ralf; Hattermann, Tore; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Humbert, Angelika; Huybrechts, Philippe; Jourdain, Nicolas C.; Kleiner, Thomas; Larour, Eric; Leguy, Gunter R.; Lowry, Daniel P.; Little, Chistopher M.; Morlighem, Mathieu; Pattyn, Frank; Pelle, Tyler; Price, Stephen F.; Quiquet, Aurélien; Reese, Ronja; Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne; Shepherd, Andrew; Simon, Erika; Smith, Robin S.; Straneo, Fiammetta; Sun, Sainan; Trusel, Luke D.; Van Breedam, Jonas; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.; Winkelmann, Ricarda; Zhao, Chen; Zhang, Tong; Zwinger, ThomasIce flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015-2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between 7:8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to presentday conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between 6:1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display limited mass gain in East Antarctica. © Author(s) 2020.