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Performance of seasonal forecasts for the flowering and veraison of two major Portuguese grapevine varieties
Seasonal phenology forecasts are becoming increasingly demanded by winegrowers and viticulturists. Forecast performance needs to be investigated over space and time before practical applications. We assess seasonal forecast performance (skill, probability and accuracy) in predicting flowering and veraison stages of two representative varieties in Portugal over 1993–2017. The state-of-the-art forecast system ECMWF-SEAS5 provides 7-month seasonal forecasts and is coupled with a locally adapted phenology model. Overall, findings illustrate the dependence of forecast performance on initialization timings, regions and predicting subjects (stages and varieties). Forecast performance improves by delaying the initialization timing and only forecasts initialized on April 1st show better skills than climatology on predicting phenology terciles (early/normal/late). The considerable bias of daily values of seasonal climate predictions can represent the main barrier to accurate forecasts. Better prediction performance is consistently found in Central-Southern regions compared to Northern regions, attributing to an earlier phenology occurrence with a shorter forecast length. Comparable predictive skills between flowering and veraison for both varieties imply better predictability in summer. Consequently, promising seasonal phenology predictions are foreseen in Central-Southern wine regions using forecasts initialized on April 1st with approximately 1–2/3–4 months lead time for flowering/veraison: potential prediction errors are ∼2 weeks, along with an overall moderate forecast skill on categorical events. However, considerable inter-annual variability of forecast performance over the same classified phenology years reflects the substantial influence of climate variability. This may represent the main challenge for reliable forecasts in Mediterranean regions. Recommendations are suggested for methodological innovations and practical applications towards reliable regional phenology forecasts.
In-situ fruit analysis by means of LiDAR 3D point cloud of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)
A feasible method to analyse fruit at the tree is requested in precise production management. The employment of light detection and ranging (LiDAR) was approached aimed at measuring the number of fruit, quality-related size, and ripeness-related chlorophyll of fruit skin. During fruit development (65 – 130 day after full bloom, DAFB), apples were harvested and analysed in the laboratory (n = 225) with two LiDAR laser scanners measuring at 660 and 905 nm. From these two 3D point clouds, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVILiDAR) was calculated. The correlation analysis of NDVILiDAR and chemically analysed fruit chlorophyll content showed R2 = 0.81 and RMSE = 3.63 % on the last measuring date, when fruit size reached 76 mm. The method was tested on 3D point clouds of 12 fruit trees measured directly in the orchard, during fruit growth on five measuring dates, and validated with manual fruit analysis in the orchard (n = 4632). Point clouds of individual apples were segmented from 3D point clouds of trees and fruit NDVILiDAR were calculated. The non-invasively obtained field data showed good calibration performance capturing number of fruit, fruit size, fruit NDVILiDAR, and chemically analysed chlorophyll content of R2 = 0.99, R2 = 0.98 with RMSE = 3.02 %, R2 = 0.65 with RMSE = 0.65 %, R2 = 0.78 with RMSE = 1.31 %, respectively, considering the related reference data at last measuring date 130 DAFB. The new approach of non-invasive laser scanning provided physiologically and agronomically valuable time series data on differences in fruit chlorophyll affected by the leaf area to number of fruit and leaf area to fruit fresh mass ratios. Concluding, the method provides a tool for gaining production-relevant plant data for, e.g., crop load management and selective harvesting by harvest robots.
A “built-up” composite film with synergistic functionalities on Mg–2Zn–1Mn bioresorbable stents improves corrosion control effects and biocompatibility
Control of premature corrosion of magnesium (Mg) alloy bioresorbable stents (BRS) is frequently achieved by the addition of rare earth elements. However, limited long-term experience with these elements causes concerns for clinical application and alternative methods of corrosion control are sought after. Herein, we report a “built-up” composite film consisting of a bottom layer of MgF2 conversion coating, a sandwich layer of a poly (1, 3-trimethylene carbonate) (PTMC) and 3-aminopropyl triethoxysilane (APTES) co-spray coating (PA) and on top a layer of poly (lactic-co-glycolic acid) (PLGA) ultrasonic spray coating to decorate the rare earth element-free Mg–2Zn–1Mn (ZM21) BRS for tailoring both corrosion resistance and biological functions. The developed “built-up” composite film shows synergistic functionalities, allowing the compression and expansion of the coated ZM21 BRS on an angioplasty balloon without cracking or peeling. Of special importance is that the synergistic corrosion control effects of the “built-up” composite film allow for maintaining the mechanical integrity of stents for up to 3 months, where complete biodegradation and no foreign matter residue were observed about half a year after implantation in rabbit iliac arteries. Moreover, the functionalized ZM21 BRS accomplished re-endothelialization within one month.
Intestinal flow rates, absorption of felodipine from the small intestine and attributes of chyme collected at midgut from Labradors
The objectives of the present study were (1) to investigate gastrointestinal hydrodynamics of Labradors as a model for human midgut (2) to examine various attributes of intestinal fluids in vivo and (3) to study the influence of hydrodynamics on the dissolution and absorption of a poorly soluble drug from various suspensions. Gastrointestinal flow rates were determined volumetrically using an aspiration method. Isotonic saline and 20 % glucose solutions were used to alter gastrointestinal hydrodynamics. Felodipine, a BCS class II substance, was suspended in these fluids. Osmolality, pH, bile acid concentration and drug solubility in various chyme samples were determined. Blood plasma levels of felodipine were recorded while gastrointestinal dissolution was ongoing. Fluid recovery at midgut fistula was significantly higher (>100 %) for glucose 20 % than for isotonic saline solutions (70 %). After administration of 200 ml glucose 20 % the (overall) grand median of differential gastrointestinal flow rates (DFR) was 8.3 ml/min.. Individual spike flow ranged from 20 up to 60 ml/min. Corresponding flow rates after administration of 200 ml isotonic saline were 35.0 ml/min. for the grand median including individual spike flows beyond 100 ml/min.. Within and between-dog variability in flow rate data was similar. In general, glucose solutions released more evenly. Following oral administration of glucose solution 20 % osmolality of intestinal fluids decreased within 40 min. from about 1000 mOsm. towards more physiological values of about 350 mOsm.. Saturation solubility of felodipine (Cs) in jejunal chyme after administration of either solution (saline or glucose) was determined to be about 10 (µg/ml) on average (median), exposing high variability with time! The intestinal solubility varied greatly within the course of an experiment. However, a strong correlation was observed between the aspirated fluid volume and the dissolved amount of felodipine confirming the well known relationship of Noyes, Whitney, Nernst and Brunner in-vivo. Grand median of pH in jejunal chyme of labradors was determined to be 6.68. Median values range from 4.38-7.62. The pharmacokinetic data showed a slight trend to differences based on particle size and on fluid administered.