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End date: 2024 × Start date: 2020 × DDC: 320 × Type: Text × Version: publishedVersion × WGL Institute: PIK ×

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Now showing 1 - 6 of 6
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    Understanding Socio-metabolic Inequalities Using Consumption Data from Germany
    (New York, NY : Guilford Publ., 2022) Schuster, Antonia; Otto, Ilona M.
    The Earth’s population of seven billion consume varying amounts of planetary resources with varying impacts on the environment. We combine the analytical tools offered by the socio-ecological metabolism and class theory and contribute to a novel social stratification theory to identify the differences in individual resource and energy use. This approach is applied to German society, we use per capita greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) as a proxy for resource and energy use and investigate socio-metabolic characteristics of individuals from an economic, social and cultural perspective. The results show large disparities and inequalities in emission patterns in the German society. For example, the GHG in the lowest and highest emission groups can differ by a magnitude of ten. Income, education, age, gender and regional differences (Eastern vs. Western Germany) result in distinct emission profiles. We question the focus on individual behavioral changes and consumption choices to reduce carbon emissions instead of structural changes through political decisions. We argue that emission differences are directly linked to the effects of inequalities and class differences in capitalist societies. Our research results show that natural resource and energy consumption are important for explaining social differentiation in modern societies.
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    Declining glaciers endanger sustainable development of the oases along the Aksu-Tarim River (Central Asia)
    (London : Taylor & Francis, 2021) Bolch, Tobias; Duethmann, Doris; Wortmann, Michel; Liu, Shiyin; Disse, Markus
    Tarim River basin is the largest endorheic river basin in China. Due to the extremely arid climate the water supply solely depends on water originating from the glacierised mountains with about 75% stemming from the transboundary Aksu River. The water demand is linked to anthropogenic (specifically agriculture) and natural ecosystems, both competing for water. Ongoing climate change significantly impacts the cryosphere. The mass balance of the glaciers in Aksu River basin was clearly negative since 1975. The discharge of the Aksu headwaters has been increasing over the last decades mainly due to the glacier contribution. The average glacier melt contribution to total runoff is 30–37% with an estimated glacier imbalance contribution of 8–16%. Modelling using future climate scenarios indicate a glacier area loss of at least 50% until 2100. River discharge will first increase concomitant with glacier shrinkage until about 2050, but likely decline thereafter. The irrigated area doubled in the Aksu region between the early 1990s and 2020, causing at least a doubling of water demand. The current water surplus is comparable to the glacial runoff. Hence, even if the water demand will not grow further in the future a significant water shortage can be expected with declining glacial runoff. However, with the further expansion of irrigated agriculture and related industries, the water demand is expected to even further increase. Both improved discharge projections and planning of efficient and sustainable water use are necessary for further socioeconomic development in the region along with the preservation of natural ecosystems.
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    Changing seasonal temperature offers a window of opportunity for stricter climate policy
    (Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier Science, 2022) Pfeifer, Lena; Otto, Ilona M.
    Environmental catastrophes, including the increased severity and frequency of climate extremes, can act as “windows of opportunities” that challenge citizens’ mental models and motivate them to engage in reflective processes, challenging their pre-conceived ideas. Less well understood is whether experiencing changing weather conditions, common in mid-latitudes, can have a similar effect and increase the citizens’ concerns about climate change and their willingness to accept more stringent climate policies. In this paper, we investigate the effects of changing seasonal temperature on the perceived seriousness of climate change and willingness to mitigate climate change. We use data from four yearly waves of a spatially explicit representative population survey in Germany and weather records from the postal code areas in which they live. To our knowledge, this study is the first analysis to link individual perceptions towards climate change and different mitigation options with seasonal temperature changes at specific locations in Europe. The analyzed perceptions were strongly influenced by socio-demographic characteristics and broader societal changes, as well as individual experiences of seasonal temperatures. The results show that experienced seasonal temperature change influences personal climate change concerns as well as the willingness to mitigate climate change, although with a weaker effect. The results indicate that it is the absolute temperature variation experienced that is important, rather than whether it is getting colder or warmer than usual. Considering the influences identified in this study can offer a window of opportunity for more stringent and targeted climate change policy.
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    Evidence-based narratives in European research programming
    (Heidelberg : Springer, 2021) Schepelmann, Philipp; Fischer, Susanne; Drews, Martin; Bastein, Ton; Kropp, Jürgen; Krummenauer, Linda; Augenstein, Karoline
    The article introduces and exemplifies the approach of evidence-based narratives (EBN). The methodology is a product of co-design between policy-making and science, generating robust intelligence for evidence-based policy-making in the Directorate General for Research and Innovation of the European Commission (DG RTD) under the condition of high uncertainty and fragmented evidence. The EBN transdisciplinary approach tackles practical problems of future-oriented policy-making, in this case in the area of programming for research and innovation addressing the Grand Societal Challenge related to climate change and natural resources. Between 2013 and 2018, the EU-funded RECREATE project developed 20 EBNs in a co-development process between scientists and policy-makers. All EBNs are supported with evidence about the underlying innovation system applying the technological innovation systems (TIS) framework. Each TIS analysis features the innovation, its current state of market diffusion and a description of the innovation investment case. Indicators include potential future market sizes, effects on employment and environmental and social benefits. Based on the innovation and TIS function analyses, the EBNs offer policy recommendations. The article ends with a critical discussion of the EBN approach.
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    Exploring Global Climate Policy Futures and Their Representation in Integrated Assessment Models
    (Lisbon : Cogitatio Press, 2022) Hickmann, Thomas; Bertram, Christoph; Biermann, Frank; Brutschin, Elina; Kriegler, Elmar; Livingston, Jasmine E.; Pianta, Silvia; Riahi, Keywan; van Ruijven, Bas; van Vuuren, Detlef
    The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015, paved the way for a new hybrid global climate governance architecture with both bottom‐up and top‐down elements. While governments can choose individual climate goals and actions, a global stocktake and a ratcheting‐up mechanism have been put in place with the overall aim to ensure that collective efforts will prevent increasing adverse impacts of climate change. Integrated assessment models show that current combined climate commitments and policies of national governments fall short of keeping global warming to 1.5 °C or 2 °C above preindustrial levels. Although major greenhouse gas emitters, such as China, the European Union, India, the United States under the Biden administration, and several other countries, have made new pledges to take more ambitious climate action, it is highly uncertain where global climate policy is heading. Scenarios in line with long‐term temperature targets typically assume a simplistic and hardly realistic level of harmonization of climate policies across countries. Against this backdrop, this article develops four archetypes for the further evolution of the global climate governance architecture and matches them with existing sets of scenarios developed by integrated assessment models. By these means, the article identifies knowledge gaps in the current scenario literature and discusses possible research avenues to explore the pre‐conditions for successful coordination of national policies towards achieving the long‐term target stipulated in the Paris Agreement.