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End date: 2024 × Start date: 2020 × DDC: 333,7 × DDC: 570 × Has files: Yes × WGL Institute: PIK ×

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    Advances in Understanding and Managing Catastrophic Ecosystem Shifts in Mediterranean Ecosystems
    (Lausanne : Frontiers Media, 2020) van den Elsen, Erik; Stringer, Lindsay C.; De Ita, Cecilia; Hessel, Rudi; Kéfi, Sonia; Schneider, Florian D.; Bautista, Susana; Mayor, Angeles G.; Baudena, Mara; Rietkerk, Max; Valdecantos, Alejandro; Vallejo, Victoriano R.; Geeson, Nichola; Brandt, C. Jane; Fleskens, Luuk; Hemerik, Lia; Panagos, Panos; Valente, Sandra; Keizer, Jan J.; Schwilch, Gudrun; Jucker Riva, Matteo; Sietz, Diana; Christoforou, Michalakis; Hadjimitsis, Diofantos G.; Papoutsa, Christiana; Quaranta, Giovanni; Salvia, Rosanna; Tsanis, Ioannis K.; Daliakopoulos, Ioannis; Claringbould, Heleen; de Ruiter, Peter C.
    One of the most challenging issues in Mediterranean ecosystems to date has been to understand the emergence of discontinuous changes or catastrophic shifts. In the era of the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals, which encompass ideas around Land Degradation Neutrality, advancing this understanding has become even more critical and urgent. The aim of this paper is to synthesize insights into the drivers, processes and management of catastrophic shifts to highlight ways forward for the management of Mediterranean ecosystems. We use a multidisciplinary approach that extends beyond the typical single site, single scale, single approach studies in the current literature. We link applied and theoretical ecology at multiple scales with analyses and modeling of human–environment–climate relations and stakeholder engagement in six field sites in Mediterranean ecosystems to address three key questions: How do major degradation drivers affect ecosystem functioning and services in Mediterranean ecosystems? What processes happen in the soil and vegetation during a catastrophic shift? How can management of vulnerable ecosystems be optimized using these findings? Drawing together the findings from the use of different approaches allows us to address the whole pipeline of changes from drivers through to action. We highlight ways to assess ecosystem vulnerability that can help to prevent ecosystem shifts to undesirable states; identify cost-effective management measures that align with the vision and plans of land users; and evaluate the timing of these measures to enable optimization of their application before thresholds are reached. Such a multidisciplinary approach enables improved identification of early warning signals for discontinuous changes informing more timely and cost-effective management, allowing anticipation of, adaptation to, or even prevention of, undesirable catastrophic ecosystem shifts. © Copyright © 2020 van den Elsen, Stringer, De Ita, Hessel, Kéfi, Schneider, Bautista, Mayor, Baudena, Rietkerk, Valdecantos, Vallejo, Geeson, Brandt, Fleskens, Hemerik, Panagos, Valente, Keizer, Schwilch, Jucker Riva, Sietz, Christoforou, Hadjimitsis, Papoutsa, Quaranta, Salvia, Tsanis, Daliakopoulos, Claringbould and de Ruiter.
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    Challenges in producing policy-relevant global scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services
    (Amsterdam : Elsevier, 2020) Rosa, Isabel M.D.; Purvis, Andy; Alkemade, Rob; Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca; Ferrier, Simon; Guerra, Carlos A.; Hurtt, George; Kim, HyeJin; Leadley, Paul; Martins, Inês S.; Popp, Alexander; Schipper, Aafke M.; van Vuuren, Detlef; Pereira, Henrique M.
    Scenario-based modelling is a powerful tool to describe relationships between plausible trajectories of drivers, possible policy interventions, and impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Model inter-comparisons are key in quantifying uncertainties and identifying avenues for model improvement but have been missing among the global biodiversity and ecosystem services modelling communities. The biodiversity and ecosystem services scenario-based inter-model comparison (BES-SIM) aims to fill this gap. We used global land-use and climate projections to simulate possible future impacts on terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services using a variety of models and a range of harmonized metrics. The goal of this paper is to reflect on the steps taken in BES-SIM, identify remaining methodological challenges, and suggest pathways for improvement. We identified five major groups of challenges; the need to: 1) better account for the role of nature in future human development storylines; 2) improve the representation of drivers in the scenarios by increasing the resolution (temporal, spatial and thematic) of land-use as key driver of biodiversity change and including additional relevant drivers; 3) explicitly integrate species- and trait-level biodiversity in ecosystem services models; 4) expand the coverage of the multiple dimensions of biodiversity and ecosystem services; and finally, 5) incorporate time-series or one-off historical data in the calibration and validation of biodiversity and ecosystem services models. Addressing these challenges would allow the development of more integrated global projections of biodiversity and ecosystem services, thereby improving their policy relevance in supporting the interlinked international conservation and sustainable development agendas. © 2019 The Authors