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- ItemNucleation of jet engine oil vapours is a large source of aviation-related ultrafine particles(London : Springer Nature, 2022) Ungeheuer, Florian; Caudillo, Lucía; Ditas, Florian; Simon, Mario; van Pinxteren, Dominik; Kılıç, Doğuşhan; Rose, Diana; Jacobi, Stefan; Kürten, Andreas; Curtius, Joachim; Vogel, Alexander L.Large airports are a major source of ultrafine particles, which spread across densely populated residential areas, affecting air quality and human health. Jet engine lubrication oils are detectable in aviation-related ultrafine particles, however, their role in particle formation and growth remains unclear. Here we show the volatility and new-particle-formation ability of a common synthetic jet oil, and the quantified oil fraction in ambient ultrafine particles downwind of Frankfurt International Airport, Germany. We find that the oil mass fraction is largest in the smallest particles (10-18 nm) with 21% on average. Combining ambient particle-phase concentration and volatility of the jet oil compounds, we determine a lower-limit saturation ratio larger than 1 × 105 for ultra-low volatility organic compounds. This indicates that the oil is an efficient nucleation agent. Our results demonstrate that jet oil nucleation is an important mechanism that can explain the abundant observations of high number concentrations of non-refractory ultrafine particles near airports.
- ItemS-wave experiments for the exploration of a deep geothermal carbonate reservoir in the German Molasse Basin(Berlin ; Heidelberg [u.a.] : SpringerOpen, 2021) Wawerzinek, Britta; Buness, Hermann; von Hartmann, Hartwig; Tanner, David C.There are many successful geothermal projects that exploit the Upper Jurassic aquifer at 2–3 km depth in the German Molasse Basin. However, up to now, only P-wave seismic exploration has been carried out. In an experiment in the Greater Munich area, we recorded S-waves that were generated by the conventional P-wave seismic survey, using 3C receivers. From this, we built a 3D volume of P- to S-converted (PS) waves using the asymptotic conversion point approach. By combining the P-volume and the resulting PS-seismic volume, we were able to derive the spatial distribution of the vp/vs ratio of both the Molasse overburden and the Upper Jurassic reservoir. We found that the vp/vs ratios for the Molasse units range from 2.0 to 2.3 with a median of 2.15, which is much higher than previously assumed. This raises the depth of hypocenters of induced earthquakes in surrounding geothermal wells. The vp/vs ratios found in the Upper Jurassic vary laterally between 1.5 and 2.2. Since no boreholes are available for verification, we test our results against an independently derived facies classification of the conventional 3D seismic volume and found it correlates well. Furthermore, we see that low vp/vs ratios correlate with high vp and vs velocities. We interpret the latter as dolomitized rocks, which are connected with enhanced permeability in the reservoir. We conclude that 3C registration of conventional P-wave surveys is worthwhile.
- ItemIntercomparison of regional loss estimates from global synthetic tropical cyclone models([London] : Nature Publishing Group UK, 2022) Meiler, Simona; Vogt, Thomas; Bloemendaal, Nadia; Ciullo, Alessio; Lee, Chia-Ying; Camargo, Suzana J.; Emanuel, Kerry; Bresch, David N.Tropical cyclones (TCs) cause devastating damage to life and property. Historical TC data is scarce, complicating adequate TC risk assessments. Synthetic TC models are specifically designed to overcome this scarcity. While these models have been evaluated on their ability to simulate TC activity, no study to date has focused on model performance and applicability in TC risk assessments. This study performs the intercomparison of four different global-scale synthetic TC datasets in the impact space, comparing impact return period curves, probability of rare events, and hazard intensity distribution over land. We find that the model choice influences the costliest events, particularly in basins with limited TC activity. Modelled direct economic damages in the North Indian Ocean, for instance, range from 40 to 246 billion USD for the 100-yr event over the four hazard sets. We furthermore provide guidelines for the suitability of the different synthetic models for various research purposes.
- ItemPorosity estimation of a geothermal carbonate reservoir in the German Molasse Basin based on seismic amplitude inversion(Berlin ; Heidelberg [u.a.] : SpringerOpen, 2022) Wadas, Sonja Halina; von Hartmann, HartwigThe Molasse Basin is one of the most promising areas for deep geothermal exploitation in Germany and the target horizon is the aquifer in the Upper Jurassic carbonates. Carbonate deposits can be very heterogeneous even over a small area due to diagenetic processes and varying depositional environments. The preferential targets for geothermal exploitation in carbonate deposits are fault zones, reef facies and karstified areas, since they are expected to act as hydraulically permeable zones due to high porosity and high permeability. Therefore, identifying these structures and characterizing, e.g., their internal porosity distribution are of high importance. This can be accomplished using 3D reflection seismic data. Besides structural information, 3D seismic surveys provide important reservoir properties, such as acoustic impedance, from which a porosity model can be derived. In our study area in Munich we carried out a seismic amplitude inversion to get an acoustic impedance model of the Upper Jurassic carbonate reservoir using a 3D seismic data set, a corresponding structural geological model, and logging data from six wells at the ‘Schäftlarnstraße’ geothermal site. The impedance model and porosity logs were than used to calculate a porosity model. The model shows a wide porosity range from 0 to 20% for the entire reservoir zone and the lithology along the wells reveals that dolomitic limestone has the highest porosities and calcareous dolomite has the lowest porosities. The study area is cut by a large W–E striking fault, the Munich Fault, and the footwall north of it shows higher porosities and more intense karstification than the hanging wall to the south. Considering the entire study area, an increase in porosity from east to west is observed. Furthermore, we identified a complex porosity distribution in reef buildups and pinnacle reefs. The reef cores have mostly low porosities of, e.g., < 3% and the highest porosities of up to 7 to 14% are observed at the reef caps and on the reef slopes. The reef slopes show a characteristic interfingering of the reef facies with the surrounding bedded facies, which indicates a syn-sedimentary reef development with slightly varying build up growth rates. We also assessed the reservoir quality with regard to porosity distribution and determined areas with moderate to good quality for geothermal exploitation by defining porosity evaluation levels. The porosity evaluation maps show that the carbonate rocks of Berriasian to Malm ζ1 are preferential targets for exploitation, especially in the footwall of the Munich Fault and to the west of the hanging wall, because these areas are characterized by high porosities due to intense karstification of bedded and massive facies, although the latter is mainly restricted to reef caps and reef slopes.
- ItemOvercoming global inequality is critical for land-based mitigation in line with the Paris Agreement([London] : Nature Publishing Group UK, 2022) Humpenöder, Florian; Popp, Alexander; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Orlov, Anton; Windisch, Michael Gregory; Menke, Inga; Pongratz, Julia; Havermann, Felix; Thiery, Wim; Luo, Fei; v. Jeetze, Patrick; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Weindl, Isabelle; Lejeune, QuentinTransformation pathways for the land sector in line with the Paris Agreement depend on the assumption of globally implemented greenhouse gas (GHG) emission pricing, and in some cases also on inclusive socio-economic development and sustainable land-use practices. In such pathways, the majority of GHG emission reductions in the land system is expected to come from low- and middle-income countries, which currently account for a large share of emissions from agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU). However, in low- and middle-income countries the economic, financial and institutional barriers for such transformative changes are high. Here, we show that if sustainable development in the land sector remained highly unequal and limited to high-income countries only, global AFOLU emissions would remain substantial throughout the 21st century. Our model-based projections highlight that overcoming global inequality is critical for land-based mitigation in line with the Paris Agreement. While also a scenario purely based on either global GHG emission pricing or on inclusive socio-economic development would achieve the stringent emissions reductions required, only the latter ensures major co-benefits for other Sustainable Development Goals, especially in low- and middle-income regions.
- ItemLow atmospheric CO2 levels before the rise of forested ecosystems([London] : Nature Publishing Group UK, 2022) Dahl, Tais W.; Harding, Magnus A. R.; Brugger, Julia; Feulner, Georg; Norrman, Kion; Lomax, Barry H.; Junium, Christopher K.The emergence of forests on Earth (~385 million years ago, Ma)1 has been linked to an order-of-magnitude decline in atmospheric CO2 levels and global climatic cooling by altering continental weathering processes, but observational constraints on atmospheric CO2 before the rise of forests carry large, often unbound, uncertainties. Here, we calibrate a mechanistic model for gas exchange in modern lycophytes and constrain atmospheric CO2 levels 410–380 Ma from related fossilized plants with bound uncertainties of approximately ±100 ppm (1 sd). We find that the atmosphere contained ~525–715 ppm CO2 before continents were afforested, and that Earth was partially glaciated according to a palaeoclimate model. A process-driven biogeochemical model (COPSE) shows the appearance of trees with deep roots did not dramatically enhance atmospheric CO2 removal. Rather, shallow-rooted vascular ecosystems could have simultaneously caused abrupt atmospheric oxygenation and climatic cooling long before the rise of forests, although earlier CO2 levels are still unknown.
- ItemGlobal perturbation of stratospheric water and aerosol burden by Hunga eruption(London : Springer Nature, 2022) Khaykin, Sergey; Podglajen, Aurelien; Ploeger, Felix; Grooß, Jens-Uwe; Tence, Florent; Bekki, Slimane; Khlopenkov, Konstantin; Bedka, Kristopher; Rieger, Landon; Baron, Alexandre; Godin-Beekmann, Sophie; Legras, Bernard; Sellitto, Pasquale; Sakai, Tetsu; Barnes, John; Uchino, Osamu; Morino, Isamu; Nagai, Tomohiro; Wing, Robin; Baumgarten, Gerd; Gerding, Michael; Duflot, Valentin; Payen, Guillaume; Jumelet, Julien; Querel, Richard; Liley, Ben; Bourassa, Adam; Clouser, Benjamin; Feofilov, Artem; Hauchecorne, Alain; Ravetta, FrançoisThe eruption of the submarine Hunga volcano in January 2022 was associated with a powerful blast that injected volcanic material to altitudes up to 58 km. From a combination of various types of satellite and ground-based observations supported by transport modeling, we show evidence for an unprecedented increase in the global stratospheric water mass by 13% relative to climatological levels, and a 5-fold increase of stratospheric aerosol load, the highest in the last three decades. Owing to the extreme injection altitude, the volcanic plume circumnavigated the Earth in only 1 week and dispersed nearly pole-to-pole in three months. The unique nature and magnitude of the global stratospheric perturbation by the Hunga eruption ranks it among the most remarkable climatic events in the modern observation era, with a range of potential long-lasting repercussions for stratospheric composition and climate.
- ItemImproving the evidence base: A methodological review of the quantitative climate migration literature(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2021) Hoffmann, Roman; Šedová, Barbora; Vinke, KiraThe question whether and how climatic factors influence human migration has gained both academic and public interest in the past years. Based on two meta-analyses, this paper systematically reviews the quantitative empirical literature on climate-related migration from a methodological perspective. In total, information from 127 original micro- and macro-level studies is analyzed to assess how different concepts, research designs, and analytical methods shape our understanding of climate migration. We provide an overview of common methodological approaches and present evidence on their potential implications for the estimation of climatic impacts. We identify five key challenges, which relate to the i) measurement of migration and ii) climatic events, iii) the integration and aggregation of data, iv) the identification of causal relationships, and v) the exploration of contextual influences and mechanisms. Advances in research and modelling are discussed together with best practice cases to provide guidance to researchers studying the climate-migration nexus. We recommend for future empirical studies to employ approaches that are of relevance for and reflect local contexts, ensuring high levels of comparability and transparency.
- ItemFuture tree survival in European forests depends on understorey tree diversity(London : Nature Publishing Group, 2022) Billing, Maik; Thonicke, Kirsten; Sakschewski, Boris; Bloh, Werner von; Walz, ArianeClimate change heavily threatens forest ecosystems worldwide and there is urgent need to understand what controls tree survival and forests stability. There is evidence that biodiversity can enhance ecosystem stability (Loreau and de Mazancourt in Ecol Lett 16:106–115, 2013; McCann in Nature 405:228–233, 2000), however it remains largely unclear whether this also holds for climate change and what aspects of biodiversity might be most important. Here we apply machine learning to outputs of a flexible-trait Dynamic Global Vegetation Model to unravel the effects of enhanced functional tree trait diversity and its sub-components on climate-change resistance of temperate forests (http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~billing/video/Forest_Resistance_LPJmLFIT.mp4). We find that functional tree trait diversity enhances forest resistance. We explain this with 1. stronger complementarity effects (~ 25% importance) especially improving the survival of trees in the understorey of up to + 16.8% (± 1.6%) and 2. environmental and competitive filtering of trees better adapted to future climate (40–87% importance). We conclude that forests containing functionally diverse trees better resist and adapt to future conditions. In this context, we especially highlight the role of functionally diverse understorey trees as they provide the fundament for better survival of young trees and filtering of resistant tree individuals in the future.