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- ItemIntegrating climate change adaptation in coastal governance of the Barcelona metropolitan area(Dordrecht [u.a.] : Springer Science + Business Media B.V, 2021) Sauer, Inga J.; Roca, Elisabet; Villares, MíriamCoastal cities are exposed to high risks due to climate change, as they are potentially affected by both rising sea levels and increasingly intense and frequent coastal storms. Socio-economic drivers also increase exposure to natural hazards, accelerate environmental degradation, and require adaptive governance structures to moderate negative impacts. Here, we use a social network analysis (SNA) combined with further qualitative information to identify barriers and enablers of adaptive governance in the Barcelona metropolitan area. By analyzing how climate change adaptation is mainstreamed between different administrative scales as well as different societal actors, we can determine the governance structures and external conditions that hamper or foster strategical adaptation plans from being used as operational adaptation tools. We identify a diverse set of stakeholders acting at different administrative levels (local to national), in public administration, science, civil society, and the tourism economy. The metropolitan administration acts as an important bridging organization by promoting climate change adaptation to different interest groups and by passing knowledge between actors. Nonetheless, national adaptation planning fails to take into account local experiences in coastal protection, which leads to an ineffective science policy interaction and limits adaptive management and learning opportunities. Overcoming this is difficult, however, as the effectiveness of local adaptation strategies in the Barcelona metropolitan area is very limited due to a strong centralization of power at the national level and a lack of polycentricity. Due to the high touristic pressure, the legal framework is currently oriented to primarily meet the demands of recreational use and tourism, prioritizing these aspects in daily management practice. Therefore, touristic and economic activities need to be aligned to adaptation efforts, to convert them from barriers into drivers for adaptation action. Our work strongly suggests that more effectively embedding adaptation planning and action into existing legal structures of coastal management would allow strategic adaptation plans to be an effective operational tool for local coastal governance.
- ItemTheoretical and paleoclimatic evidence for abrupt transitions in the Earth system(Bristol : IOP Publ., 2022) Boers, Niklas; Ghil, Michael; Stocker, Thomas F.Specific components of the Earth system may abruptly change their state in response to gradual changes in forcing. This possibility has attracted great scientific interest in recent years, and has been recognized as one of the greatest threats associated with anthropogenic climate change. Examples of such components, called tipping elements, include the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, the polar ice sheets, the Amazon rainforest, as well as the tropical monsoon systems. The mathematical language to describe abrupt climatic transitions is mainly based on the theory of nonlinear dynamical systems and, in particular, on their bifurcations. Applications of this theory to nonautonomous and stochastically forced systems are a very active field of climate research. The empirical evidence that abrupt transitions have indeed occurred in the past stems exclusively from paleoclimate proxy records. In this review, we explain the basic theory needed to describe critical transitions, summarize the proxy evidence for past abrupt climate transitions in different parts of the Earth system, and examine some candidates for future abrupt transitions in response to ongoing anthropogenic forcing. Predicting such transitions remains difficult and is subject to large uncertainties. Substantial improvements in our understanding of the nonlinear mechanisms underlying abrupt transitions of Earth system components are needed. We argue that such an improved understanding requires combining insights from (a) paleoclimatic records; (b) simulations using a hierarchy of models, from conceptual to comprehensive ones; and (c) time series analysis of recent observation-based data that encode the dynamics of the present-day Earth system components that are potentially prone to tipping.
- ItemClimate impact emergence and flood peak synchronization projections in the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna basins under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios(Bristol : IOP Publ., 2022) Gädeke, Anne; Wortmann, Michel; Menz, Christoph; Islam, AKM Saiful; Masood, Muhammad; Krysanova, Valentina; Lange, Stefan; Hattermann, Fred FokkoThe densely populated delta of the three river systems of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna is highly prone to floods. Potential climate change-related increases in flood intensity are therefore of major societal concern as more than 40 million people live in flood-prone areas in downstream Bangladesh. Here we report on new flood projections using a hydrological model forced by bias-adjusted ensembles of the latest-generation global climate models of CMIP6 (SSP5-8.5/SSP1-2.6) in comparison to CMIP5 (RCP8.5/RCP2.6). Results suggest increases in peak flow magnitude of 36% (16%) on average under SSP5-8.5 (SSP1-2.6), compared to 60% (17%) under RCP8.5 (RCP2.6) by 2070-2099 relative to 1971-2000. Under RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 (2070-2099), the largest increase in flood risk is projected for the Ganges watershed, where higher flood peaks become the ‘new norm’ as early as mid-2030 implying a relatively short time window for adaptation. In the Brahmaputra and Meghna rivers, the climate impact signal on peak flow emerges after 2070 (CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections). Flood peak synchronization, when annual peak flow occurs simultaneously at (at least) two rivers leading to large flooding events within Bangladesh, show a consistent increase under both projections. While the variability across the ensemble remains high, the increases in flood magnitude are robust in the study basins. Our findings emphasize the need of stringent climate mitigation policies to reduce the climate change impact on peak flows (as presented using SSP1-2.6/RCP2.6) and to subsequently minimize adverse socioeconomic impacts and adaptation costs. Considering Bangladesh’s high overall vulnerability to climate change and its downstream location, synergies between climate change adaptation and mitigation and transboundary cooperation will need to be strengthened to improve overall climate resilience and achieve sustainable development.
- ItemAttributing observed permafrost warming in the northern hemisphere to anthropogenic climate change(Bristol : IOP Publ., 2022) Gudmundsson, Lukas; Kirchner, Josefine; Gädeke, Anne; Noetzli, Jeannette; Biskaborn, Boris KPermafrost temperatures are increasing globally with the potential of adverse environmental and socio-economic impacts. Nonetheless, the attribution of observed permafrost warming to anthropogenic climate change has relied mostly on qualitative evidence. Here, we compare long permafrost temperature records from 15 boreholes in the northern hemisphere to simulated ground temperatures from Earth system models contributing to CMIP6 using a climate change detection and attribution approach. We show that neither pre-industrial climate variability nor natural drivers of climate change suffice to explain the observed warming in permafrost temperature averaged over all boreholes. However, simulations are consistent with observations if the effects of human emissions on the global climate system are considered. Moreover, our analysis reveals that the effect of anthropogenic climate change on permafrost temperature is detectable at some of the boreholes. Thus, the presented evidence supports the conclusion that anthropogenic climate change is the key driver of northern hemisphere permafrost warming.
- ItemImpacts of climate change on global food trade networks(Bristol : IOP Publ., 2022) Hedlund, Johanna; Carlsen, Henrik; Croft, Simon; West, Chris; Bodin, Örjan; Stokeld, Emilie; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Müller, ChristophCountries’ reliance on global food trade networks implies that regionally different climate change impacts on crop yields will be transmitted across borders. This redistribution constitutes a significant challenge for climate adaptation planning and may affect how countries engage in cooperative action. This paper investigates the long-term (2070-2099) potential impacts of climate change on global food trade networks of three key crops: wheat, rice and maize. We propose a simple network model to project how climate change impacts on crop yields may be translated into changes in trade. Combining trade and climate impact data, our analysis proceeds in three steps. First, we use network community detection to analyse how the concentration of global production in present-day trade communities may become disrupted with climate change impacts. Second, we study how countries may change their network position following climate change impacts. Third, we study the total climate-induced change in production plus import within trade communities. Results indicate that the stability of food trade network structures compared to today differs between crops, and that countries’ maize trade is least stable under climate change impacts. Results also project that threats to global food security may depend on production change in a few major global producers, and whether trade communities can balance production and import loss in some vulnerable countries. Overall, our model contributes a baseline analysis of cross-border climate impacts on food trade networks.
- ItemProjecting the impact of air pollution on child stunting in India—synergies and trade-offs between climate change mitigation, ambient air quality control, and clean cooking access(Bristol : IOP Publ., 2022) Dimitrova, Asya; Marois, Guillaume; Kiesewetter, Gregor; Rafaj, Peter; Pachauri, Shonali; KC, Samir; Olmos, Sergio; Rasella, Davide; Tonne, CathrynMany children in India face the double burden of high exposure to ambient (AAP) and household air pollution, both of which can affect their linear growth. Although climate change mitigation is expected to decrease AAP, climate policies could increase the cost of clean cooking fuels. Here, we develop a static microsimulation model to project the air pollution-related burden of child stunting in India up to 2050 under four scenarios combining climate change mitigation (2 °C target) with national policies for AAP control and subsidised access to clean cooking. We link data from a nationally representative household survey, satellite-based estimates of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), a multi-dimensional demographic projection and PM2.5 and clean cooking access projections from an integrated assessment model. We find that the positive effects on child linear growth from reductions in AAP under the 2 °C Paris Agreement target could be fully offset by the negative effects of climate change mitigation through reduced clean cooking access. Targeted AAP control or subsidised access to clean cooking could shift this trade-off to result in net benefits of 2.8 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 1.4, 4.2) or 6.5 (UI: 6.3, 6.9) million cumulative prevented cases of child stunting between 2020–50 compared to business-as-usual. Implementation of integrated climate, air quality, and energy access interventions has a synergistic impact, reducing cumulative number of stunted children by 12.1 (UI: 10.7, 13.7) million compared to business-as-usual, with the largest health benefits experienced by the most disadvantaged children and geographic regions. Findings underscore the importance of complementing climate change mitigation efforts with targeted air quality and energy access policies to concurrently deliver on carbon mitigation, health and air pollution and energy poverty reduction goals in India.
- ItemCoupling a Detailed Transport Model to the Integrated Assessment Model REMIND(Bussum : Baltzer Science Publ., 2021) Rottoli, Marianna; Dirnaichner, Alois; Kyle, Page; Baumstark, Lavinia; Pietzcker, Robert; Luderer, GunnarThe transport sector is a crucial bottleneck in the decarbonization challenge. To study the sector’s decarbonization potential in the wider systems perspective, we couple a large-scale integrated assessment model, Regionalized Model of INvestments and Development (REMIND), to a detailed transport model, Energy Demand Generator-Transport (EDGE-T). This approach allows the analysis of mobility futures in the context of long-term and global energy sector transformations, at a high level of modal and technological granularity and internal consistency. The runtime of the coupled system increases by ~ 15–20% compared with a REMIND standalone application, and first convergence tests are promising. To illustrate the capabilities of our modeling approach, we focus on a reference pathway for Europe. Preliminary results indicate that transport service demands grow in the next decades for both passenger and freight transport. Transport system emissions are expected to decrease in the same time range, due to a shift towards electric drivetrains, advanced vehicles, more efficient modes as well as a slight increase in the share of biofuels.
- ItemEstablishment of a Laboratory Scale Set-Up with Controlled Temperature and High Humidity to Investigate Dry Matter Losses of Wood Chips from Poplar during Storage(Basel : MDPI, 2022) Hernandez-Estrada, Albert; Pecenka, Ralf; Dumfort, Sabrina; Ascher-Jenull, Judith; Lenz, Hannes; Idler, Christine; Hoffmann, ThomasThe aim of this work was to improve the understanding of dry matter losses (DML) that occur in wood chips during the initial phase of storage in outdoor piles. For this purpose, a laboratory scale storage chamber was developed and investigated regarding its ability to recreate the conditions that chips undergo during the initial phase of outdoor storage. Three trials with poplar Max-4 (Populus maximowiczii Henry Populus nigra L.) chips were performed for 6–10 weeks in the storage chamber under controlled temperature and assisted humidity. Two different setups were investigated to maintain a high relative humidity (RH) inside the storage chamber; one using water containers, and one assisted with a humidifier. Moisture content (MC) and DML of the chips were measured at different storage times to evaluate their storage behaviour in the chamber. Additionally, microbiological analyses of the culturable fraction of saproxylic microbiota were performed, with a focus on mesophilic fungi, but discriminating also xerophilic fungi, and mesophilic bacteria, with focus on actinobacteria, in two trials, to gain a view on the poplar wood chip-inhabiting microorganisms as a function of storage conditions (moisture, temperature) and time. Results show that DML up to 8.8–13.7% occurred in the chips within 6–10 storage weeks. The maximum DML were reached in the trial using the humidifier, which seemed a suitable technique to keep a high RH in the testing chamber, and thus, to analyse the wood chips in conditions comparable to those in outdoor piles during the initial storage phase.
- ItemCylindrospermopsin is effectively degraded in water by pulsed corona-like and dielectric barrier discharges(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier Science, 2020) Schneider, Marcel; Rataj, Raphael; Kolb, Juergen F.; Bláha, LuděkCylindrospermopsin (CYN) is an important cyanobacterial toxin posing a major threat to surface waters during cyanobacterial blooms. Hence, methods for cyanotoxin removal are required to confront seasonal or local incidences to sustain the safety of potable water reservoirs. Non-thermal plasmas provide the possibility for an environmentally benign treatment which can be adapted to specific concentrations and environmental conditions without the need of additional chemicals. We therefore investigated the potential of two different non-thermal plasma approaches for CYN degradation, operated either in a water mist, i.e. in air, or submerged in water. A degradation efficacy of 0.03 ± 0.00 g kWh−1 L−1 was found for a dielectric barrier discharge (DBD) operated in air, while a submerged pulsed corona-like discharge resulted in an efficacy of 0.24 ± 0.02 g kWh−1 L−1. CYN degradation followed a pseudo zeroth order or pseudo first order reaction kinetic, respectively. Treatment efficacy of the corona-like discharge submerged in water increased with pH values of the initial solution changing from 5.0 to 7.5. Notably, a pH-depending residual oxidative effect was observed for the submerged discharge, resulting in ongoing CYN degradation, even without further plasma treatment. In this case hydroxyl radicals were identified as the dominant oxidants of CYN at acidic pH values. In comparison, degradation by the DBD could be related primarily to the generation of ozone. © 2020 The AuthorsThe degradation of cylindrospermopsin by a pulsed corona-like discharge in water was more effective compared with a pulsed dielectric barrier discharge in air around a water mist. © 2020 The Authors
- ItemResponsibility Under Uncertainty: Which Climate Decisions Matter Most?(Amsterdam : Baltzer Science Publ., 2023) Botta, Nicola; Brede, Nuria; Crucifix, Michel; Ionescu, Cezar; Jansson, Patrik; Li, Zheng; Martínez, Marina; Richter, TimWe propose a new method for estimating how much decisions under monadic uncertainty matter. The method is generic and suitable for measuring responsibility in finite horizon sequential decision processes. It fulfills “fairness” requirements and three natural conditions for responsibility measures: agency, avoidance and causal relevance. We apply the method to study how much decisions matter in a stylized greenhouse gas emissions process in which a decision maker repeatedly faces two options: start a “green” transition to a decarbonized society or further delay such a transition. We account for the fact that climate decisions are rarely implemented with certainty and that their consequences on the climate and on the global economy are uncertain. We discover that a “moral” approach towards decision making — doing the right thing even though the probability of success becomes increasingly small — is rational over a wide range of uncertainties.
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