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- ItemClimate change impacts on European arable crop yields: Sensitivity to assumptions about rotations and residue management(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2022) Faye, Babacar; Webber, Heidi; Gaiser, Thomas; Müller, Christoph; Zhang, Yinan; Stella, Tommaso; Latka, Catharina; Reckling, Moritz; Heckelei, Thomas; Helming, Katharina; Ewert, FrankMost large scale studies assessing climate change impacts on crops are performed with simulations of single crops and with annual re-initialization of the initial soil conditions. This is in contrast to the reality that crops are grown in rotations, often with sizable proportion of the preceding crop residue to be left in the fields and varying soil initial conditions from year to year. In this study, the sensitivity of climate change impacts on crop yield and soil organic carbon to assumptions about annual model re-initialization, specification of crop rotations and the amount of residue retained in fields was assessed for seven main crops across Europe. Simulations were conducted for a scenario period 2040–2065 relative to a baseline from 1980 to 2005 using the SIMPLACE1 framework. Results indicated across Europe positive climate change impacts on yield for C3 crops and negative impacts for maize. The consideration of simulating rotations did not have a benefit on yield variability but on relative yield change in response to climate change which slightly increased for C3 crops and decreased for C4 crops when rotation was considered. Soil organic carbon decreased under climate change in both simulations assuming a continuous monocrop and plausible rotations by between 1% and 2% depending on the residue management strategy.
- ItemThe social cost of carbon and inequality: When local redistribution shapes global carbon prices(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2021) Kornek, Ulrike; Klenert, David; Edenhofer, Ottmar; Fleurbaey, MarcThe social cost of carbon is a central metric for optimal carbon prices. Previous literature shows that inequality significantly influences the social cost of carbon, but mostly omits heterogeneity below the national level. We present an optimal taxation model of the social cost of carbon that accounts for inequality between and within countries. We find that climate and distributional policy can generally not be separated. If only one country does not compensate low-income households for disproportionate damages, the social cost of carbon tends to increase globally. Optimal carbon prices remain roughly unchanged if national redistribution leaves inequality between households unaffected by climate change and if the utility of households is approximately logarithmic in consumption.
- ItemThe impact of climate conditions on economic production. Evidence from a global panel of regions(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2020) Kalkuhl, Matthias; Wenz, LeonieWe present a novel data set of subnational economic output, Gross Regional Product (GRP), for more than 1500 regions in 77 countries that allows us to empirically estimate historic climate impacts at different time scales. Employing annual panel models, long-difference regressions and cross-sectional regressions, we identify effects on productivity levels and productivity growth. We do not find evidence for permanent growth rate impacts but we find robust evidence that temperature affects productivity levels considerably. An increase in global mean surface temperature by about 3.5°C until the end of the century would reduce global output by 7–14% in 2100, with even higher damages in tropical and poor regions. Updating the DICE damage function with our estimates suggests that the social cost of carbon from temperature-induced productivity losses is on the order of 73–142$/tCO2 in 2020, rising to 92–181$/tCO2 in 2030. These numbers exclude non-market damages and damages from extreme weather events or sea-level rise. © 2020 The Authors
- ItemImproving the evidence base: A methodological review of the quantitative climate migration literature(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2021) Hoffmann, Roman; Šedová, Barbora; Vinke, KiraThe question whether and how climatic factors influence human migration has gained both academic and public interest in the past years. Based on two meta-analyses, this paper systematically reviews the quantitative empirical literature on climate-related migration from a methodological perspective. In total, information from 127 original micro- and macro-level studies is analyzed to assess how different concepts, research designs, and analytical methods shape our understanding of climate migration. We provide an overview of common methodological approaches and present evidence on their potential implications for the estimation of climatic impacts. We identify five key challenges, which relate to the i) measurement of migration and ii) climatic events, iii) the integration and aggregation of data, iv) the identification of causal relationships, and v) the exploration of contextual influences and mechanisms. Advances in research and modelling are discussed together with best practice cases to provide guidance to researchers studying the climate-migration nexus. We recommend for future empirical studies to employ approaches that are of relevance for and reflect local contexts, ensuring high levels of comparability and transparency.
- ItemEcosystem services values at risk in the Atlantic coastal zone due to sea-level rise and socioeconomic development(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2022) Magalhães Filho, L.N.L.; Roebeling, P.C.; Costa, L.F.C.; de Lima, L.T.Uncertainties about the future extent of sea-level rise (SLR) and socioeconomic development will determine the future of coastal ecosystem services and values. This study analyzes the joint impact of flooding and socioeconomic development on the future ecosystem services and values in the Atlantic coastal zone by 2100. To this end, flood probability maps (using the Uncertainty Bathtub Model; uBTM) and local ecosystem service value (ESV) estimates (using meta-analytic based global ecosystem service value functions for Provisioning, Regulating & maintenance, and Cultural ecosystem services across 12 biomes) are derived for a wide combination of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios to obtain future values of coastal ecosystem services (ES). Results show that the higher potential of ESV at risk is associated with RCP 8.5 and SSP5, i.e. the scenario associated with a narrative related to fossil-fueled development. For this scenario, by 2100, the coastal zone with the highest probable losses in Provisioning ESV is Europe (∼5.9 € billion/year), for Regulating & maintenance ESV this is North America (∼6.0 € billion/year) and for Cultural ESV this is South America (∼21.3 € billion/year). Countries facing highest relative risk of losing Provisioning ESV are the Netherlands (10.6 %), United States (7.4 %), and Mauritania (5.8 %). For Regulating & maintenance ESV, the top 3 countries impacted are Mauritania (17.6 %), the Netherlands (10.0 %) and Argentina (8.0 %). For Cultural ESV, the countries are Mexico (19.0 %), Denmark (18.1 %) and Sweden (15.6 %). Changes in ESV are exponentially related to flood risk and economic growth, such that small changes in flood or income lead to large changes in ESV. Unlike previous studies, the ESV functions used are dependent on time and local factors, such as population and income. Although population and income growth result in an increase in ESV, it also emphasizes the ecosystem service values at risk. Thus, sea-level rise and socioeconomic changes impact ecosystem services and values – directly affecting the well-being of the world population. The unequal distribution of coastal ecosystem service value losses across continents and countries highlighted in this work is important to identify what values are at risk and for whom. Adaptation measures and strategies can, in turn, be defined.