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- ItemPerformance of seasonal forecasts for the flowering and veraison of two major Portuguese grapevine varieties(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2023) Yang, Chenyao; Ceglar, Andrej; Menz, Christoph; Martins, Joana; Fraga, Helder; Santos, João A.Seasonal phenology forecasts are becoming increasingly demanded by winegrowers and viticulturists. Forecast performance needs to be investigated over space and time before practical applications. We assess seasonal forecast performance (skill, probability and accuracy) in predicting flowering and veraison stages of two representative varieties in Portugal over 1993–2017. The state-of-the-art forecast system ECMWF-SEAS5 provides 7-month seasonal forecasts and is coupled with a locally adapted phenology model. Overall, findings illustrate the dependence of forecast performance on initialization timings, regions and predicting subjects (stages and varieties). Forecast performance improves by delaying the initialization timing and only forecasts initialized on April 1st show better skills than climatology on predicting phenology terciles (early/normal/late). The considerable bias of daily values of seasonal climate predictions can represent the main barrier to accurate forecasts. Better prediction performance is consistently found in Central-Southern regions compared to Northern regions, attributing to an earlier phenology occurrence with a shorter forecast length. Comparable predictive skills between flowering and veraison for both varieties imply better predictability in summer. Consequently, promising seasonal phenology predictions are foreseen in Central-Southern wine regions using forecasts initialized on April 1st with approximately 1–2/3–4 months lead time for flowering/veraison: potential prediction errors are ∼2 weeks, along with an overall moderate forecast skill on categorical events. However, considerable inter-annual variability of forecast performance over the same classified phenology years reflects the substantial influence of climate variability. This may represent the main challenge for reliable forecasts in Mediterranean regions. Recommendations are suggested for methodological innovations and practical applications towards reliable regional phenology forecasts.
- ItemA review of coarse mineral dust in the Earth system(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2022) Adebiyi, Adeyemi; Kok, Jasper F.; Murray, Benjamin J.; Ryder, Claire L.; Stuut, Jan-Berend W.; Kahn, Ralph A.; Knippertz, Peter; Formenti, Paola; Mahowald, Natalie M.; Pérez García-Pando, Carlos; Klose, Martina; Ansmann, Albert; Samset, Bjørn H.; Ito, Akinori; Balkanski, Yves; Di Biagio, Claudia; Romanias, Manolis N.; Huang, Yue; Meng, JunMineral dust particles suspended in the atmosphere span more than three orders of magnitude in diameter, from <0.1 µm to more than 100 µm. This wide size range makes dust a unique aerosol species with the ability to interact with many aspects of the Earth system, including radiation, clouds, hydrology, atmospheric chemistry, and biogeochemistry. This review focuses on coarse and super-coarse dust aerosols, which we respectively define as dust particles with a diameter of 2.5–10 µm and 10–62.5 µm. We review several lines of observational evidence indicating that coarse and super-coarse dust particles are transported farther than previously expected and that the abundance of these particles is substantially underestimated in current global models. We synthesize previous studies that used observations, theories, and model simulations to highlight the impacts of coarse and super-coarse dust aerosols on the Earth system, including their effects on dust-radiation interactions, dust-cloud interactions, atmospheric chemistry, and biogeochemistry. Specifically, coarse and super-coarse dust aerosols produce a net positive direct radiative effect (warming) at the top of the atmosphere and can modify temperature and water vapor profiles, influencing the distribution of clouds and precipitation. In addition, coarse and super-coarse dust aerosols contribute a substantial fraction of ice-nucleating particles, especially at temperatures above –23 °C. They also contribute a substantial fraction to the available reactive surfaces for atmospheric processing and the dust deposition flux that impacts land and ocean biogeochemistry by supplying important nutrients such as iron and phosphorus. Furthermore, we examine several limitations in the representation of coarse and super-coarse dust aerosols in current model simulations and remote-sensing retrievals. Because these limitations substantially contribute to the uncertainties in simulating the abundance and impacts of coarse and super-coarse dust aerosols, we offer some recommendations to facilitate future studies. Overall, we conclude that an accurate representation of coarse and super-coarse properties is critical in understanding the impacts of dust aerosols on the Earth system.
- ItemOSL-dating of the Pleistocene-Holocene climatic transition in loess from China, Europe and North America, and evidence for accretionary pedogenesis(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2021) Constantin, D.; Mason, J.A.; Veres, D.; Hambach, U.; Panaiotu, C.; Zeeden, C.; Zhou, L.; Marković, S.B.; Gerasimenko, N.; Avram, A.; Tecsa, V.; Groza-Sacaciu, S.M.; del Valle Villalonga, L.; Begy, R.; Timar-Gabor, A.Loess deposits intercalated by paleosols are detailed terrestrial archives of Quaternary climate variability providing information on the global dust cycle and landscape dynamics. Their paleoclimatic significance is often explored by quantifying their mineral magnetic properties due to their sensitivity to local/regional hydroclimate variability. Detailed chronological assessment of such regional proxy records around the climatic transitions allow a better understanding of how regional records react to major global climatic transitions such as the Pleistocene-Holocene climatic transition. Logs of high-resolution magnetic susceptibility and its frequency dependence were used as paleoclimatic proxies to define the environmental transition from the last glacial loess to the current interglacial soil as reflected in nine loess-paleosol sequences across the northern hemisphere, from the Chinese Loess Plateau, the southeastern European loess belt and the central Great Plains, USA. The onset of increase in magnetic susceptibility above typical loess values was used to assess the onset of, and developments during, the Pleistocene-Holocene climatic transition. High-resolution luminescence dating was applied on multiple grain-sizes (4–11 μm, 63–90 μm, 90–125 μm) of quartz extracts from the same sample in order to investigate the timing of Pleistocene-Holocene climatic transition in the investigated sites. The magnetic susceptibility signal shows a smooth and gradual increase for the majority of the sites from the typical low loess values to the interglacial ones. The initiation of this increase, interpreted as recording the initiation of the Pleistocene-Holocene climatic transition at each site, was dated to 14–17.5 ka or even earlier. Our chronological results highlight the need of combining paleoclimatic proxies (magnetic susceptibility) with absolute dating when investigating the Pleistocene-Holocene climatic transition as reflected by the evolution of this proxy in order to avoid chronostratigraphic misinterpretations in loess-paleosol records caused by simple pattern correlation. The detailed luminescence chronologies evidence the continuity of eolian mineral dust accumulation regardless of glacial or interglacial global climatic regimes. Coupled with magnetic susceptibility records this indicates that dust sedimentation and pedogenesis act simultaneously and result in a non-negligible accretional component in the formation of Holocene soils in loess regions across the Northern Hemisphere. The luminescence ages allowed the modeling of accumulation rates for the Holocene soil which are similar for European, Chinese and U.S.A. loess sites investigated and vary from 2 cm ka−1 to 9 cm ka−1. While accretional pedogenesis has often been implicitly or explicitly assumed in paleoclimatic interpretation of loess-paleosol sequences, especially in the Chinese Loess Plateau, our luminescence data add direct evidence for ongoing sedimentation as interglacial soils formed.
- ItemLoess landscapes of Europe – Mapping, geomorphology, and zonal differentiation(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2021) Lehmkuhl, F.; Nett, J.J.; Pötter, S.; Schulte, P.; Sprafke, T.; Jary, Z.; Antoine, P.; Wacha, L.; Wolf, D.; Zerboni, A.; Hošek, J.; Marković, S.B.; Obreht, I.; Sümegi, P.; Veres, D.; Zeeden, C.; Boemke, B.; Schaubert, V.; Viehweger, J.; Hambach, U.Paleoenvironmental reconstructions on a (supra-)regional scale have gained attention in Quaternary sciences during the last decades. In terrestrial realms, loess deposits and especially intercalations of loess and buried soils, so called loess-paleosol sequences (LPS) are important archives to unravel the terrestrial response to e.g. climatic fluctuations and reconstruct paleoenvironments during the Pleistocene. The analysis of LPS requires the knowledge of several key factors, such as the distribution of the aeolian sediments, their location relative to (potential) source areas, the climate conditions that led to their emplacement and the topography of the sink area. These factors strongly influence the sedimentological and paleoenvironmental characteristics of LPS and show broad variations throughout Europe, leading to a distinct distribution pattern throughout the continent. We present a new map of the distribution of aeolian sediments (mainly loess) and major potential source areas for Europe. The map was compiled combining geodata of different mapping approaches. Most of the used geodata stems from accurate national maps of 27 different countries. Problematic aspects such as different nomenclatures across administrative borders were carefully investigated and revised. The result is a seamless map, which comprises pedological, geological, and geomorphological data and can be used for paleoenvironmental and archeological studies and other applications. We use the resulting map and data from key geomorphological cross-sections to discuss the various influences of geomorphology and paleoenvironment on the deposition and preservation of Late Pleistocene loess throughout Europe. We divided the loess areas into 6 main loess domains and 17 subdomains to understand and explain the factors controlling their distribution and characteristics. For the subdivision we used the following criteria: (1) influence of silt production areas, (2) affiliation to subcatchments, as rivers are very important regional silt transport agents, (3) occurrence of past periglacial activity with characteristic overprinting of the deposits. Additionally, the sediment distribution is combined with elevation data, to investigate the loess distribution statistically as well as visually. Throughout Europe, the variations, and differences of the loess domains are the results of a complex interplay of changing paleoenvironmental conditions and related geomorphologic processes, controlling dust sources, transport, accumulation, preservation, pedogenesis, alongside erosional and reworking events. Climatic, paleoclimatic, and pedoclimatic gradients are on the continental scale an additional important factor, since there are e.g. latitudinal differences of permafrost and periglacial processes, an increase in continentality from west to east and in aridity from northwest to southeast and south, strongly affecting regional sedimentary and geomorphic dynamics. We propose three main depositional regimes for loess formation in Europe: (1.) periglacial and tundra loess formation with periglacial processes and permafrost in the high latitude and mountainous regions; (2.) steppe and desert margin loess formation in the (semi-)arid regions; and (3.) loess and soil formation in temperate and subtropical regions. Loess deposits of (1.) and (2.) show coarser, sandier particle distributions towards the glacial and desert regions. In the humid areas (3.) forest vegetation limited dust production and accumulation, therefore, there is an increase in finer grain sizes due to an increase in weathering.
- ItemModifications in aerosol physical, optical and radiative properties during heavy aerosol events over Dushanbe, Central Asia(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2021) Rupakheti, Dipesh; Rupakheti, Maheswar; Yin, Xiufeng; Hofer, Julian; Rai, Mukesh; Hu, Yuling; Abdullaev, Sabur F.; Kang, ShichangThe location of Central Asia, almost at the center of the global dust belt region, makes it susceptible for dust events. The studies on atmospheric impact of dust over the region are very limited despite the large area occupied by the region and its proximity to the mountain regions (Tianshan, Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalayas, and Tibetan Plateau). In this study, we analyse and explain the modification in aerosols’ physical, optical and radiative properties during various levels of aerosol loading observed over Central Asia utilizing the data collected during 2010–2018 at the AERONET station in Dushanbe, Tajikistan. Aerosol episodes were classified as strong anthropogenic, strong dust and extreme dust. The mean aerosol optical depth (AOD) during these three types of events was observed a factor of ~3, 3.5 and 6.6, respectively, higher than the mean AOD for the period 2010–2018. The corresponding mean fine-mode fraction was 0.94, 0.20 and 0.16, respectively, clearly indicating the dominance of fine-mode anthropogenic aerosol during the first type of events, whereas coarse-mode dust aerosol dominated during the other two types of events. This was corroborated by the relationships among various aerosol parameters (AOD vs. AE, and EAE vs. AAE, SSA and RRI). The mean aerosol radiative forcing (ARF) at the top of the atmosphere (ARFTOA), the bottom of the atmosphere (ARFBOA), and in the atmosphere (ARFATM) were −35 ± 7, −73 ± 16, and 38 ± 17 Wm−2 during strong anthropogenic events, −48 ± 12, −85 ± 24, and 37 ± 15 Wm−2 during strong dust event, and −68 ± 19, −117 ± 38, and 49 ± 21 Wm−2 during extreme dust events. Increase in aerosol loading enhanced the aerosol-induced atmospheric heating rate to 0.5–1.6 K day−1 (strong anthropogenic events), 0.4–1.9 K day−1 (strong dust events) and 0.8–2.7 K day−1 (extreme dust events). The source regions of air masses to Dushanbe during the onset of such events are also identified. Our study contributes to the understanding of dust and anthropogenic aerosols, in particular the extreme events and their disproportionally high radiative impacts over Central Asia.
- ItemMulti-method evidence for when and how climate-related disasters contribute to armed conflict risk(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2020) Ide, Tobias; Brzoska, Michael; Donges, Jonathan F.; Schleussner, Carl-FriedrichClimate-related disasters are among the most societally disruptive impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Their potential impact on the risk of armed conflict is heavily debated in the context of the security implications of climate change. Yet, evidence for such climate-conflict-disaster links remains limited and contested. One reason for this is that existing studies do not triangulate insights from different methods and pay little attention to relevant context factors and especially causal pathways. By combining statistical approaches with systematic evidence from QCA and qualitative case studies in an innovative multi-method research design, we show that climate-related disasters increase the risk of armed conflict onset. This link is highly context-dependent and we find that countries with large populations, political exclusion of ethnic groups, and a low level of human development are particularly vulnerable. For such countries, almost one third of all conflict onsets over the 1980-2016 period have been preceded by a disaster within 7 days. The robustness of the effect is reduced for longer time spans. Case study evidence points to improved opportunity structures for armed groups rather than aggravated grievances as the main mechanism connecting disasters and conflict onset. © 2020 The Authors
- ItemShared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture and food systems: The Eur-Agri-SSPs(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2020) Le Mouël, Chantal; Mathijs, Erik; Mehdi, Bano; Mittenzwei, Klaus; Mora, Olivier; Øistad, Knut; Øygarden, Lillian; Priess, Jörg A.; Reidsma, Pytrik; Schaldach, Rüdiger; Schönhart, Martin; Mitter, Hermine; Techen, Anja-K.; Sinabell, Franz; Helming, Katharina; Schmid, Erwin; Bodirsky, Benjamin L.; Holman, Ian; Kok, Kasper; Lehtonen, Heikki; Leip, AdrianScenarios describe plausible and internally consistent views of the future. They can be used by scientists, policymakers and entrepreneurs to explore the challenges of global environmental change given an appropriate level of spatial and sectoral detail and systematic development. We followed a nine-step protocol to extend and enrich a set of global scenarios – the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) – providing regional and sectoral detail for European agriculture and food systems using a one-to-one nesting participatory approach. The resulting five Eur-Agri-SSPs are titled (1) Agriculture on sustainable paths, (2) Agriculture on established paths, (3) Agriculture on separated paths, (4) Agriculture on unequal paths, and (5) Agriculture on high-tech paths. They describe alternative plausible qualitative evolutions of multiple drivers of particular importance and high uncertainty for European agriculture and food systems. The added value of the protocol-based storyline development process lies in the conceptual and methodological transparency and rigor; the stakeholder driven selection of the storyline elements; and consistency checks within and between the storylines. Compared to the global SSPs, the five Eur-Agri-SSPs provide rich thematic and regional details and are thus a solid basis for integrated assessments of agriculture and food systems and their response to future socio-economic and environmental changes. © 2020 The Author(s)
- ItemMultiple cropping systems of the world and the potential for increasing cropping intensity(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2020) Waha, Katharina; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Portmann, Felix T.; Siebert, Stefan; Thornton, Philip K.; Bondeau, Alberte; Herrero, MarioMultiple cropping, defined as harvesting more than once a year, is a widespread land management strategy in tropical and subtropical agriculture. It is a way of intensifying agricultural production and diversifying the crop mix for economic and environmental benefits. Here we present the first global gridded data set of multiple cropping systems and quantify the physical area of more than 200 systems, the global multiple cropping area and the potential for increasing cropping intensity. We use national and sub-national data on monthly crop-specific growing areas around the year 2000 (1998–2002) for 26 crop groups, global cropland extent and crop harvested areas to identify sequential cropping systems of two or three crops with non-overlapping growing seasons. We find multiple cropping systems on 135 million hectares (12% of global cropland) with 85 million hectares in irrigated agriculture. 34%, 13% and 10% of the rice, wheat and maize area, respectively are under multiple cropping, demonstrating the importance of such cropping systems for cereal production. Harvesting currently single cropped areas a second time could increase global harvested areas by 87–395 million hectares, which is about 45% lower than previous estimates. Some scenarios of intensification indicate that it could be enough land to avoid expanding physical cropland into other land uses but attainable intensification will depend on the local context and the crop yields attainable in the second cycle and its related environmental costs. © 2020 The Author(s)
- ItemImproving the evidence base: A methodological review of the quantitative climate migration literature(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2021) Hoffmann, Roman; Šedová, Barbora; Vinke, KiraThe question whether and how climatic factors influence human migration has gained both academic and public interest in the past years. Based on two meta-analyses, this paper systematically reviews the quantitative empirical literature on climate-related migration from a methodological perspective. In total, information from 127 original micro- and macro-level studies is analyzed to assess how different concepts, research designs, and analytical methods shape our understanding of climate migration. We provide an overview of common methodological approaches and present evidence on their potential implications for the estimation of climatic impacts. We identify five key challenges, which relate to the i) measurement of migration and ii) climatic events, iii) the integration and aggregation of data, iv) the identification of causal relationships, and v) the exploration of contextual influences and mechanisms. Advances in research and modelling are discussed together with best practice cases to provide guidance to researchers studying the climate-migration nexus. We recommend for future empirical studies to employ approaches that are of relevance for and reflect local contexts, ensuring high levels of comparability and transparency.
- ItemSevere climate change risks to food security and nutrition(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2022) Mirzabaev, Alisher; Bezner Kerr, Rachel; Hasegawa, Toshihiro; Pradhan, Prajal; Wreford, Anita; Tirado von der Pahlen, Maria Cristina; Gurney-Smith, HelenThis paper discusses severe risks to food security and nutrition that are linked to ongoing and projected climate change, particularly climate and weather extremes in global warming, drought, flooding, and precipitation. We specifically consider the impacts on populations vulnerable to food insecurity and malnutrition due to lower income, lower access to nutritious food, or social discrimination. The paper defines climate-related “severe risk” in the context of food security and nutrition, using a combination of criteria, including the magnitude and likelihood of adverse consequences, the timing of the risk and the ability to reduce the risk. Severe climate change risks to food security and nutrition are those which result, with high likelihood, in pervasive and persistent food insecurity and malnutrition for millions of people, have the potential for cascading effects beyond the food systems, and against which we have limited ability to prevent or fully respond. The paper uses internationally agreed definitions of risks to food security and nutrition to describe the magnitude of adverse consequences. Moreover, the paper assesses the conditions under which climate change-induced risks to food security and nutrition could become severe based on findings in the literature using different climate change scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways. Finally, the paper proposes adaptation options, including institutional management and governance actions, that could be taken now to prevent or reduce the severe climate risks to future human food security and nutrition.