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- ItemPotential for Early Forecast of Moroccan Wheat Yields Based on Climatic Drivers(Hoboken, NJ [u.a.] : Wiley, 2020) Lehmann, J.; Kretschmer, M.; Schauberger, B.; Wechsung, F.Wheat production plays an important role in Morocco. Current wheat forecast systems use weather and vegetation data during the crop growing phase, thus limiting the earliest possible release date to early spring. However, Morocco's wheat production is mostly rainfed and thus strongly tied to fluctuations in rainfall, which in turn depend on slowly evolving climate dynamics. This offers a source of predictability at longer time scales. Using physically guided causal discovery algorithms, we extract climate precursors for wheat yield variability from gridded fields of geopotential height and sea surface temperatures which show potential for accurate yield forecasts already in December, with around 50% explained variance in an out-of-sample cross validation. The detected interactions are physically meaningful and consistent with documented ocean-atmosphere feedbacks. Reliable yield forecasts at such long lead times could provide farmers and policy makers with necessary information for early action and strategic adaptation measurements to support food security. ©2020. The Authors.
- ItemSeptember 2019 Antarctic Sudden Stratospheric Warming: Quasi-6-Day Wave Burst and Ionospheric Effects(Hoboken, NJ [u.a.] : Wiley, 2020) Yamazaki, Y.; Matthias, V.; Miyoshi, Y.; Stolle, C.; Siddiqui, T.; Kervalishvili, G.; Laštovička, J.; Kozubek, M.; Ward, W.; Themens, D.R.; Kristoffersen, S.; Alken, P.An exceptionally strong stationary planetary wave with Zonal Wavenumber 1 led to a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in the Southern Hemisphere in September 2019. Ionospheric data from European Space Agency's Swarm satellite constellation mission show prominent 6-day variations in the dayside low-latitude region at this time, which can be attributed to forcing from the middle atmosphere by the Rossby normal mode “quasi-6-day wave” (Q6DW). Geopotential height measurements by the Microwave Limb Sounder aboard National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Aura satellite reveal a burst of global Q6DW activity in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere during the SSW, which is one of the strongest in the record. The Q6DW is apparently generated in the polar stratosphere at 30–40 km, where the atmosphere is unstable due to strong vertical wind shear connected with planetary wave breaking. These results suggest that an Antarctic SSW can lead to ionospheric variability through wave forcing from the middle atmosphere. ©2020. The Authors.
- ItemGlobal Heat Uptake by Inland Waters(Hoboken, NJ [u.a.] : Wiley, 2020) Vanderkelen, I.; van Lipzig, N.P.M.; Lawrence, D.M.; Droppers, B.; Golub, M.; Gosling, S.N.; Janssen, A.B.G.; Marcé, R.; Schmied, H.M.; Perroud, M.; Pierson, D.; Pokhrel, Y.; Satoh, Y.; Schewe, J.; Seneviratne, S.I.; Stepanenko, V.M.; Tan, Z.; Woolway, R.I.; Thiery, W.PHeat uptake is a key variable for understanding the Earth system response to greenhouse gas forcing. Despite the importance of this heat budget, heat uptake by inland waters has so far not been quantified. Here we use a unique combination of global-scale lake models, global hydrological models and Earth system models to quantify global heat uptake by natural lakes, reservoirs, and rivers. The total net heat uptake by inland waters amounts to 2.6 ± 3.2 ×1020 J over the period 1900–2020, corresponding to 3.6% of the energy stored on land. The overall uptake is dominated by natural lakes (111.7%), followed by reservoir warming (2.3%). Rivers contribute negatively (-14%) due to a decreasing water volume. The thermal energy of water stored in artificial reservoirs exceeds inland water heat uptake by a factor ∼10.4. This first quantification underlines that the heat uptake by inland waters is relatively small, but non-negligible. ©2020. The Authors.
- ItemJoint Trends in Flood Magnitudes and Spatial Extents Across Europe(Hoboken, NJ [u.a.] : Wiley, 2020) Kemter, Matthias; Merz, Bruno; Marwan, Norbert; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Blöschl, GünterThe magnitudes of river floods in Europe have been observed to change, but their alignment with changes in the spatial coverage or extent of individual floods has not been clear. We analyze flood magnitudes and extents for 3,872 hydrometric stations across Europe over the past five decades and classify each flood based on antecedent weather conditions. We find positive correlations between flood magnitudes and extents for 95% of the stations. In central Europe and the British Isles, the association of increasing trends in magnitudes and extents is due to a magnitude-extent correlation of precipitation and soil moisture along with a shift in the flood generating processes. The alignment of trends in flood magnitudes and extents highlights the increasing importance of transnational flood risk management. ©2020. The Authors.
- ItemHigh-Resolution Proxy Records From Two Simultaneously Grown Stalagmites From Zoolithencave (Southeastern Germany) and their Potential for Palaeoclimate Reconstruction(Hoboken, NJ [u.a.] : Wiley, 2020) Riechelmann, Dana F.C.; Riechelmann, Sylvia; Wassenburg, Jasper A.; Fohlmeister, Jens; Schöne, Bernd R.; Jochum, Klaus Peter; Richter, Detlev K.; Scholz, DenisTwo small annually laminated stalagmites from Zoolithencave (southeastern Germany) grew between CE 1821 and 1970 (Zoo-rez-1) and CE 1835 and 1970 (Zoo-rez-2), respectively. Trace element concentrations were determined by Laser Ablation Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS). Samples for δ13C and δ18O analyses were micromilled on annual and subannual resolution. Soil and host rock samples were analyzed by X-Ray Diffraction (XRD) and their elemental concentrations determined via inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometer (ICP-OES). Trace element concentrations in the stalagmites show two groups in the principal component analyses: one with Mg, Ba, and Sr and another with Y, P, and Al, respectively. The second group reflects the content of detrital material. Increased weathering of soil minerals seems to have a strong influence on the silicate/carbonate weathering ratio controlling the variability of Mg, Ba, and Sr. Meteorological and Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) station data were used to calculate the δ18O values of the drip water (infiltration-weighted, mean annual, and the mean of the winter precipitation δ18O values) as well as the corresponding speleothem calcite. The δ18O values calculated by the infiltration-weighted model show similar patterns and amplitudes as the measured δ18O values of the two stalagmites. This suggests that the δ18O values of speleothem calcite reflect the δ18O values of infiltration-weighted annual precipitation, which zis related to mean annual temperature, resulting in a significant correlation between mean annual temperature and the measured δ18O values of stalagmite Zoo-rez-2. This relationship could potentially be used for quantitative climate reconstruction in the future by extending the time series back in time with further stalagmites from Zoolithencave. ©2020. The Authors.