Search Results
A tale of shifting relations: East Asian summer and winter monsoon variability during the Holocene
Understanding the dynamics between the East Asian summer (EASM) and winter monsoon (EAWM) is needed to predict their variability under future global warming scenarios. Here, we investigate the relationship between EASM and EAWM as well as the mechanisms driving their variability during the last 10,000 years by stacking marine and terrestrial (non-speleothem) proxy records from the East Asian realm. This provides a regional and proxy independent signal for both monsoonal systems. The respective signal was subsequently analysed using a linear regression model. We find that the phase relationship between EASM and EAWM is not time-constant and significantly depends on orbital configuration changes. In addition, changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning circulation, Arctic sea-ice coverage, El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Sun Spot numbers contributed to millennial scale changes in the EASM and EAWM during the Holocene. We also argue that the bulk signal of monsoonal activity captured by the stacked non-speleothem proxy records supports the previously argued bias of speleothem climatic archives to moisture source changes and/or seasonality.
The Importance of the Representation of DMS Oxidation in Global Chemistry‐Climate Simulations
The oxidation of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is key for the natural sulfate aerosol formation and its climate impact. Multiphase chemistry is an important oxidation pathway but neglected in current chemistry-climate models. Here, the DMS chemistry in the aerosol-chemistry-climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ is extended to include multiphase methane sulfonic acid (MSA) formation in deliquesced aerosol particles, parameterized by reactive uptake. First simulations agree well with observed gas-phase MSA concentrations. The implemented formation pathways are quantified to contribute up to 60% to the sulfate aerosol burden over the Southern Ocean and Arctic/Antarctic regions. While globally the impact on the aerosol radiative forcing almost levels off, a significantly more positive solar radiative forcing of up to +0.1 W m−2 is computed in the Arctic (>60°N). The findings imply the need of both further laboratory and model studies on the atmospheric multiphase oxidation of DMS.
Wintertime Airborne Measurements of Ice Nucleating Particles in the High Arctic: A Hint to a Marine, Biogenic Source for Ice Nucleating Particles
Ice nucleating particles (INPs) affect the radiative properties of cold clouds. Knowledge concerning their concentration above ground level and their potential sources is scarce. Here we present the first highly temperature resolved ice nucleation spectra of airborne samples from an aircraft campaign during late winter in 2018. Most INP spectra featured low concentration levels (<3 · 10−4 L−1 at −15°C). However, we also found INP concentrations of up to 1.8·10−2 L−1 at −15°C and freezing onsets as high as −7.5°C for samples mainly from the marine boundary layer. Shape and onset temperature of the ice nucleation spectra of those samples as well as heat sensitivity hint at biogenic INP. Colocated measurements additionally indicate a local marine influence rather than long-range transport. Our results suggest that even in late winter above 80°N a local marine source for biogenic INP, which can efficiently nucleate ice at high temperatures, is present. ©2020. The Authors.
Ozone depletion in the Arctic and Antarctic stratosphere induced by wildfire smoke
A record-breaking stratospheric ozone loss was observed over the Arctic and Antarctica in 2020. Strong ozone depletion occurred over Antarctica in 2021 as well. The ozone holes developed in smoke-polluted air. In this article, the impact of Siberian and Australian wildfire smoke (dominated by organic aerosol) on the extraordinarily strong ozone reduction is discussed. The study is based on aerosol lidar observations in the North Pole region (October 2019-May 2020) and over Punta Arenas in southern Chile at 53.2°S (January 2020-November 2021) as well as on respective NDACC (Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change) ozone profile observations in the Arctic (Ny-Ålesund) and Antarctica (Neumayer and South Pole stations) in 2020 and 2021. We present a conceptual approach on how the smoke may have influenced the formation of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs), which are of key importance in the ozone-depleting processes. The main results are as follows: (a) the direct impact of wildfire smoke below the PSC height range (at 10-12 km) on ozone reduction seems to be similar to well-known volcanic sulfate aerosol effects. At heights of 10-12 km, smoke particle surface area (SA) concentrations of 5-7 μm2 cm-3 (Antarctica, spring 2021) and 6-10 μm2 cm-3 (Arctic, spring 2020) were correlated with an ozone reduction in terms of ozone partial pressure of 0.4-1.2 mPa (about 30 % further ozone reduction over Antarctica) and of 2-3.5 mPa (Arctic, 20 %-30 % reduction with respect to the long-term springtime mean). (b) Within the PSC height range, we found indications that smoke was able to slightly increase the PSC particle number and surface area concentration. In particular, a smoke-related additional ozone loss of 1-2 mPa (10 %-20 % contribution to the total ozone loss over Antarctica) was observed in the 14-23 km PSC height range in September-October 2020 and 2021. Smoke particle number concentrations ranged from 10 to 100 cm-3 and were about a factor of 10 (in 2020) and 5 (in 2021) above the stratospheric aerosol background level. Satellite observations indicated an additional mean column ozone loss (deviation from the long-term mean) of 26-30 Dobson units (9 %-10 %, September 2020, 2021) and 52-57 Dobson units (17 %-20 %, October 2020, 2021) in the smoke-polluted latitudinal Antarctic belt from 70-80°S. Copyright:
The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: A multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6
The Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest contributors to global mean sea-level rise today and is expected to continue to lose mass as the Arctic continues to warm. The two predominant mass loss mechanisms are increased surface meltwater run-off and mass loss associated with the retreat of marine-terminating outlet glaciers. In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by output from a representative subset of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century. The simulations are part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6).We estimate the sea-level contribution together with uncertainties due to future climate forcing, ice sheet model formulations and ocean forcing for the two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP2.6. The results indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass in both scenarios until 2100, with contributions of 90-50 and 32-17mm to sea-level rise for RCP8.5 and RCP2.6, respectively. The largest mass loss is expected from the south-west of Greenland, which is governed by surface mass balance changes, continuing what is already observed today. Because the contributions are calculated against an unforced control experiment, these numbers do not include any committed mass loss, i.e. mass loss that would occur over the coming century if the climate forcing remained constant. Under RCP8.5 forcing, ice sheet model uncertainty explains an ensemble spread of 40 mm, while climate model uncertainty and ocean forcing uncertainty account for a spread of 36 and 19 mm, respectively. Apart from those formally derived uncertainty ranges, the largest gap in our knowledge is about the physical understanding and implementation of the calving process, i.e. the interaction of the ice sheet with the ocean. © Author(s) 2020.
Using Bayesian Networks to Investigate the Influence of Subseasonal Arctic Variability on Midlatitude North Atlantic Circulation
Recent enhanced warming and sea ice depletion in the Arctic have been put forward as potential drivers of severe weather in the midlatitudes. Evidence of a link between Arctic warming and midlatitude atmospheric circulation is growing, but the role of Arctic processes relative to other drivers remains unknown. Arctic–midlatitude connections in the North Atlantic region are particularly complex but important due to the frequent occurrence of severe winters in recent decades. Here, dynamic Bayesian networks with hidden variables are introduced to the field to assess their suitability for teleconnection analyses. Climate networks are constructed to analyze North Atlantic circulation variability at 5-day to monthly time scales during the winter months of the years 1981–2018. The inclusion of a number of Arctic, midlatitude, and tropical variables allows for an investigation into the relative role of Arctic influence compared to internal atmospheric variability and other remote drivers. A robust covariability between regions of amplified Arctic warming and two definitions of midlatitude circulation is found to occur entirely within winter at submonthly time scales. Hidden variables incorporated in networks represent two distinct modes of stratospheric polar vortex variability, capturing a periodic shift between average conditions and slower anomalous flow. The influence of the Barents–Kara Seas region on the North Atlantic Oscillation is found to be the strongest link at 5- and 10-day averages, while the stratospheric polar vortex strongly influences jet variability on monthly time scales.
CAMP: An instrumented platform for balloon-borne aerosol particle studies in the lower atmosphere
Airborne observations of vertical aerosol particle distributions are crucial for detailed process studies and model improvements. Tethered balloon systems represent a less expensive alternative to aircraft to probe shallow atmospheric boundary layers (ABLs). This study presents the newly developed cubic aerosol measurement platform (CAMP) for balloon-borne observations of aerosol particle microphysical properties. With an edge length of 35 cm and a weight of 9 kg, the cube is an environmentally robust instrument platform intended for measurements at low temperatures, with a particular focus on applications in cloudy Arctic ABLs. The aerosol instrumentation on board CAMP comprises two condensation particle counters with different lower detection limits, one optical particle size spectrometer, and a miniaturized absorption photometer. Comprehensive calibrations and characterizations of the instruments were performed in laboratory experiments. The first field study with a tethered balloon system took place at the Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research (TROPOS) station in Melpitz, Germany, in the winter of 2019. At ambient temperatures between-8 and 15 C, the platform was operated up to a 1.5 km height on 14 flights under both clear-sky and cloudy conditions. The continuous aerosol observations at the ground station served as a reference for evaluating the CAMP measurements. Exemplary profiles are discussed to elucidate the performance of the system and possible process studies. Based on the laboratory instrument characterizations and the observations during the field campaign, CAMP demonstrated the capability to provide comprehensive aerosol particle measurements in cold and cloudy ABLs.
Uncertainty of simulated groundwater recharge at different global warming levels: a global-scale multi-model ensemble study
Billions of people rely on groundwater as being an accessible source of drinking water and for irrigation, especially in times of drought. Its importance will likely increase with a changing climate. It is still unclear, however, how climate change will impact groundwater systems globally and, thus, the availability of this vital resource. Groundwater recharge is an important indicator for groundwater availability, but it is a water flux that is difficult to estimate as uncertainties in the water balance accumulate, leading to possibly large errors in particular in dry regions. This study investigates uncertainties in groundwater recharge projections using a multi-model ensemble of eight global hydrological models (GHMs) that are driven by the bias-adjusted output of four global circulation models (GCMs). Pre-industrial and current groundwater recharge values are compared with recharge for different global warming (GW) levels as a result of three representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Results suggest that projected changes strongly vary among the different GHM–GCM combinations, and statistically significant changes are only computed for a few regions of the world. Statistically significant GWR increases are projected for northern Europe and some parts of the Arctic, East Africa, and India. Statistically significant decreases are simulated in southern Chile, parts of Brazil, central USA, the Mediterranean, and southeastern China. In some regions, reversals of groundwater recharge trends can be observed with global warming. Because most GHMs do not simulate the impact of changing atmospheric CO2 and climate on vegetation and, thus, evapotranspiration, we investigate how estimated changes in GWR are affected by the inclusion of these processes. In some regions, inclusion leads to differences in groundwater recharge changes of up to 100 mm per year. Most GHMs with active vegetation simulate less severe decreases in groundwater recharge than GHMs without active vegetation and, in some regions, even increases instead of decreases are simulated. However, in regions where GCMs predict decreases in precipitation and where groundwater availability is the most important, model agreement among GHMs with active vegetation is the lowest. Overall, large uncertainties in the model outcomes suggest that additional research on simulating groundwater processes in GHMs is necessary.
Review of Environmental Monitoring by Means of Radio Waves in the Polar Regions: From Atmosphere to Geospace
The Antarctic and Arctic regions are Earth's open windows to outer space. They provide unique opportunities for investigating the troposphere–thermosphere–ionosphere–plasmasphere system at high latitudes, which is not as well understood as the mid- and low-latitude regions mainly due to the paucity of experimental observations. In addition, different neutral and ionised atmospheric layers at high latitudes are much more variable compared to lower latitudes, and their variability is due to mechanisms not yet fully understood. Fortunately, in this new millennium the observing infrastructure in Antarctica and the Arctic has been growing, thus providing scientists with new opportunities to advance our knowledge on the polar atmosphere and geospace. This review shows that it is of paramount importance to perform integrated, multi-disciplinary research, making use of long-term multi-instrument observations combined with ad hoc measurement campaigns to improve our capability of investigating atmospheric dynamics in the polar regions from the troposphere up to the plasmasphere, as well as the coupling between atmospheric layers. Starting from the state of the art of understanding the polar atmosphere, our survey outlines the roadmap for enhancing scientific investigation of its physical mechanisms and dynamics through the full exploitation of the available infrastructures for radio-based environmental monitoring.
Case study of a humidity layer above Arctic stratocumulus and potential turbulent coupling with the cloud top
Specific humidity inversions (SHIs) above low-level cloud layers have been frequently observed in the Arctic. The formation of these SHIs is usually associated with large-scale advection of humid air masses. However, the potential coupling of SHIs with cloud layers by turbulent processes is not fully understood. In this study, we analyze a 3 d period of a persistent layer of increased specific humidity above a stratocumulus cloud observed during an Arctic field campaign in June 2017. The tethered balloon system BELUGA (Balloon-bornE moduLar Utility for profilinG the lower Atmosphere) recorded vertical profile data of meteorological, turbulence, and radiation parameters in the atmospheric boundary layer. An in-depth discussion of the problems associated with humidity measurements in cloudy environments leads to the conclusion that the observed SHIs do not result from measurement artifacts. We analyze two different scenarios for the SHI in relation to the cloud top capped by a temperature inversion: (i) the SHI coincides with the cloud top, and (ii) the SHI is vertically separated from the lowered cloud top. In the first case, the SHI and the cloud layer are coupled by turbulence that extends over the cloud top and connects the two layers by turbulent mixing. Several profiles reveal downward virtual sensible and latent heat fluxes at the cloud top, indicating entrainment of humid air supplied by the SHI into the cloud layer. For the second case, a downward moisture transport at the base of the SHI and an upward moisture flux at the cloud top is observed. Therefore, the area between the cloud top and SHI is supplied with moisture from both sides. Finally, large-eddy simulations (LESs) complement the observations by modeling a case of the first scenario. The simulations reproduce the observed downward turbulent fluxes of heat and moisture at the cloud top. The LES realizations suggest that in the presence of a SHI, the cloud layer remains thicker and the temperature inversion height is elevated.