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- ItemCombining atmospheric and snow radiative transfer models to assess the solar radiative effects of black carbon in the Arctic(Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2020) Donth, Tobias; Jäkel, Evelyn; Ehrlich, André; Heinold, Bernd; Schacht, Jacob; Herber, Andreas; Zanatta, Marco; Wendisch, ManfredThe magnitude of solar radiative effects (cooling or warming) of black carbon (BC) particles embedded in the Arctic atmosphere and surface snow layer was explored on the basis of case studies. For this purpose, combined atmospheric and snow radiative transfer simulations were performed for cloudless and cloudy conditions on the basis of BC mass concentrations measured in pristine early summer and more polluted early spring conditions. The area of interest is the remote sea-ice-covered Arctic Ocean in the vicinity of Spitsbergen, northern Greenland, and northern Alaska typically not affected by local pollution. To account for the radiative interactions between the black-carbon-containing snow surface layer and the atmosphere, an atmospheric and snow radiative transfer model were coupled iteratively. For pristine summer conditions (no atmospheric BC, minimum solar zenith angles of 55 ) and a representative BC particle mass concentration of 5 ng g-1 in the surface snow layer, a positive daily mean solar radiative forcing of +0.2 W m-2 was calculated for the surface radiative budget. A higher load of atmospheric BC representing early springtime conditions results in a slightly negative mean radiative forcing at the surface of about -0.05 W m-2, even when the low BC mass concentration measured in the pristine early summer conditions was embedded in the surface snow layer. The total net surface radiative forcing combining the effects of BC embedded in the atmosphere and in the snow layer strongly depends on the snow optical properties (snow specific surface area and snow density). For the conditions over the Arctic Ocean analyzed in the simulations, it was found that the atmospheric heating rate by water vapor or clouds is 1 to 2 orders of magnitude larger than that by atmospheric BC. Similarly, the daily mean total heating rate (6 K d-1) within a snowpack due to absorption by the ice was more than 1 order of magnitude larger than that of atmospheric BC (0.2 K d-1). Also, it was shown that the cooling by atmospheric BC of the near-surface air and the warming effect by BC embedded in snow are reduced in the presence of clouds. © 2020 Copernicus GmbH. All rights reserved.
- ItemThe future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: A multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6(Katlenburg-Lindau : Copernicus, 2020) Goelzer, Heiko; Nowicki, Sophie; Payne, Anthony; Larour, Eric; Seroussi, Helene; Lipscomb, William H.; Gregory, Jonathan; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Shepherd, Andrew; Simon, Erika; Agosta, Cécile; Alexander, Patrick; Aschwanden, Andy; Barthel, Alice; Calov, Reinhard; Chambers, Christopher; Choi, Youngmin; Cuzzone, Joshua; Dumas, Christophe; Edwards, Tamsin; Felikson, Denis; Fettweis, Xavier; Golledge, Nicholas R.; Greve, Ralf; Humbert, Angelika; Huybrechts, Philippe; Le clec'h, Sebastien; Lee, Victoria; Leguy, Gunter; Little, Chris; Lowry, Daniel P.; Morlighem, Mathieu; Nias, Isabel; Quiquet, Aurelien; Rückamp, Martin; Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne; Slater, Donald A.; Smith, Robin S.; Straneo, Fiammetta; Tarasov, Lev; van de Wal, Roderik; van den Broeke, MichielThe Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest contributors to global mean sea-level rise today and is expected to continue to lose mass as the Arctic continues to warm. The two predominant mass loss mechanisms are increased surface meltwater run-off and mass loss associated with the retreat of marine-terminating outlet glaciers. In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by output from a representative subset of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century. The simulations are part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6).We estimate the sea-level contribution together with uncertainties due to future climate forcing, ice sheet model formulations and ocean forcing for the two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP2.6. The results indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass in both scenarios until 2100, with contributions of 90-50 and 32-17mm to sea-level rise for RCP8.5 and RCP2.6, respectively. The largest mass loss is expected from the south-west of Greenland, which is governed by surface mass balance changes, continuing what is already observed today. Because the contributions are calculated against an unforced control experiment, these numbers do not include any committed mass loss, i.e. mass loss that would occur over the coming century if the climate forcing remained constant. Under RCP8.5 forcing, ice sheet model uncertainty explains an ensemble spread of 40 mm, while climate model uncertainty and ocean forcing uncertainty account for a spread of 36 and 19 mm, respectively. Apart from those formally derived uncertainty ranges, the largest gap in our knowledge is about the physical understanding and implementation of the calving process, i.e. the interaction of the ice sheet with the ocean. © Author(s) 2020.