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    A phenomenology of new particle formation (NPF) at 13 European sites
    (Katlenburg-Lindau : European Geosciences Union, 2021) Bousiotis, Dimitrios; Pope, Francis D.; Beddows, David C. S.; Dall'Osto, Manuel; Massling, Andreas; Nøjgaard, Jakob Klenø; Nordstrøm, Claus; Niemi, Jarkko V.; Portin, Harri; Petäjä, Tuukka; Perez, Noemi; Alastuey, Andrés; Querol, Xavier; Kouvarakis, Giorgos; Mihalopoulos, Nikos; Vratolis, Stergios; Eleftheriadis, Konstantinos; Wiedensohler, Alfred; Weinhold, Kay; Merkel, Maik; Tuch, Thomas; Harrison, Roy M.
    New particle formation (NPF) events occur almost everywhere in the world and can play an important role as a particle source. The frequency and characteristics of NPF events vary spatially, and this variability is yet to be fully understood. In the present study, long-term particle size distribution datasets (minimum of 3 years) from 13 sites of various land uses and climates from across Europe were studied, and NPF events, deriving from secondary formation and not traffic-related nucleation, were extracted and analysed. The frequency of NPF events was consistently found to be higher at rural background sites, while the growth and formation rates of newly formed particles were higher at roadsides (though in many cases differences between the sites were small), underlining the importance of the abundance of condensable compounds of anthropogenic origin found there. The growth rate was higher in summer at all rural background sites studied. The urban background sites presented the highest uncertainty due to greater variability compared to the other two types of site. The origin of incoming air masses and the specific conditions associated with them greatly affect the characteristics of NPF events. In general, cleaner air masses present higher probability for NPF events, while the more polluted ones show higher growth rates. However, different patterns of NPF events were found, even at sites in close proximity (<ĝ€¯200ĝ€¯km), due to the different local conditions at each site. Region-wide events were also studied and were found to be associated with the same conditions as local events, although some variability was found which was associated with the different seasonality of the events at two neighbouring sites. NPF events were responsible for an increase in the number concentration of ultrafine particles of more than 400ĝ€¯% at rural background sites on the day of their occurrence. The degree of enhancement was less at urban sites due to the increased contribution of other sources within the urban environment. It is evident that, while some variables (such as solar radiation intensity, relative humidity, or the concentrations of specific pollutants) appear to have a similar influence on NPF events across all sites, it is impossible to predict the characteristics of NPF events at a site using just these variables, due to the crucial role of local conditions. © Author(s) 2021.
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    Terrestrial or marine – indications towards the origin of ice-nucleating particles during melt season in the European Arctic up to 83.7° N
    (Katlenburg-Lindau : European Geosciences Union, 2021) Hartmann, Markus; Gong, Xianda; Kecorius, Simonas; van Pinxteren, Manuela; Vogl, Teresa; Welti, André; Wex, Heike; Zeppenfeld, Sebastian; Herrmann, Hartmut; Wiedensohler, Alfred; Stratmann, Frank
    Ice-nucleating particles (INPs) initiate the primary ice formation in clouds at temperatures above ca. -38gC and have an impact on precipitation formation, cloud optical properties, and cloud persistence. Despite their roles in both weather and climate, INPs are not well characterized, especially in remote regions such as the Arctic. We present results from a ship-based campaign to the European Arctic during May to July 2017. We deployed a filter sampler and a continuous-flow diffusion chamber for offline and online INP analyses, respectively. We also investigated the ice nucleation properties of samples from different environmental compartments, i.e., the sea surface microlayer (SML), the bulk seawater (BSW), and fog water. Concentrations of INPs (NINP) in the air vary between 2 to 3 orders of magnitudes at any particular temperature and are, except for the temperatures above -10gC and below -32gC, lower than in midlatitudes. In these temperature ranges, INP concentrations are the same or even higher than in the midlatitudes. By heating of the filter samples to 95gC for 1ĝ€¯h, we found a significant reduction in ice nucleation activity, i.e., indications that the INPs active at warmer temperatures are biogenic. At colder temperatures the INP population was likely dominated by mineral dust. The SML was found to be enriched in INPs compared to the BSW in almost all samples. The enrichment factor (EF) varied mostly between 1 and 10, but EFs as high as 94.97 were also observed. Filtration of the seawater samples with 0.2ĝ€¯μm syringe filters led to a significant reduction in ice activity, indicating the INPs are larger and/or are associated with particles larger than 0.2ĝ€¯μm. A closure study showed that aerosolization of SML and/or seawater alone cannot explain the observed airborne NINP unless significant enrichment of INP by a factor of 105 takes place during the transfer from the ocean surface to the atmosphere. In the fog water samples with -3.47gC, we observed the highest freezing onset of any sample. A closure study connecting NINP in fog water and the ambient NINP derived from the filter samples shows good agreement of the concentrations in both compartments, which indicates that INPs in the air are likely all activated into fog droplets during fog events. In a case study, we considered a situation during which the ship was located in the marginal sea ice zone and NINP levels in air and the SML were highest in the temperature range above -10gC. Chlorophyll a measurements by satellite remote sensing point towards the waters in the investigated region being biologically active. Similar slopes in the temperature spectra suggested a connection between the INP populations in the SML and the air. Air mass history had no influence on the observed airborne INP population. Therefore, we conclude that during the case study collected airborne INPs originated from a local biogenic probably marine source. © Author(s) 2021.
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    Comparison of particle number size distribution trends in ground measurements and climate models
    (Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2022) Leinonen, Ville; Kokkola, Harri; Yli-Juuti, Taina; Mielonen, Tero; Kühn, Thomas; Nieminen, Tuomo; Heikkinen, Simo; Miinalainen, Tuuli; Bergman, Tommi; Carslaw, Ken; Decesari, Stefano; Fiebig, Markus; Hussein, Tareq; Kivekäs, Niku; Krejci, Radovan; Kulmala, Markku; Leskinen, Ari; Massling, Andreas; Mihalopoulos, Nikos; Mulcahy, Jane P.; Noe, Steffen M.; van Noije, Twan; O'Connor, Fiona M.; O'Dowd, Colin; Olivie, Dirk; Pernov, Jakob B.; Petäjä, Tuukka; Seland, Øyvind; Schulz, Michael; Scott, Catherine E.; Skov, Henrik; Swietlicki, Erik; Tuch, Thomas; Wiedensohler, Alfred; Virtanen, Annele; Mikkonen, Santtu
    Despite a large number of studies, out of all drivers of radiative forcing, the effect of aerosols has the largest uncertainty in global climate model radiative forcing estimates. There have been studies of aerosol optical properties in climate models, but the effects of particle number size distribution need a more thorough inspection. We investigated the trends and seasonality of particle number concentrations in nucleation, Aitken, and accumulation modes at 21 measurement sites in Europe and the Arctic. For 13 of those sites, with longer measurement time series, we compared the field observations with the results from five climate models, namely EC-Earth3, ECHAM-M7, ECHAM-SALSA, NorESM1.2, and UKESM1. This is the first extensive comparison of detailed aerosol size distribution trends between in situ observations from Europe and five earth system models (ESMs). We found that the trends of particle number concentrations were mostly consistent and decreasing in both measurements and models. However, for many sites, climate models showed weaker decreasing trends than the measurements. Seasonal variability in measured number concentrations, quantified by the ratio between maximum and minimum monthly number concentration, was typically stronger at northern measurement sites compared to other locations. Models had large differences in their seasonal representation, and they can be roughly divided into two categories: for EC-Earth and NorESM, the seasonal cycle was relatively similar for all sites, and for other models the pattern of seasonality varied between northern and southern sites. In addition, the variability in concentrations across sites varied between models, some having relatively similar concentrations for all sites, whereas others showed clear differences in concentrations between remote and urban sites. To conclude, although all of the model simulations had identical input data to describe anthropogenic mass emissions, trends in differently sized particles vary among the models due to assumptions in emission sizes and differences in how models treat size-dependent aerosol processes. The inter-model variability was largest in the accumulation mode, i.e. sizes which have implications for aerosol-cloud interactions. Our analysis also indicates that between models there is a large variation in efficiency of long-range transportation of aerosols to remote locations. The differences in model results are most likely due to the more complex effect of different processes instead of one specific feature (e.g. the representation of aerosol or emission size distributions). Hence, a more detailed characterization of microphysical processes and deposition processes affecting the long-range transport is needed to understand the model variability.
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    A multi-model analysis of teleconnected crop yield variability in a range of cropping systems
    (Göttingen : Copernicus Publ., 2020) Heino, Matias; Guillaume, Joseph H.A.; Müller, Christoph; Iizumi, Toshichika; Kummu, Matti
    Climate oscillations are periodically fluctuating oceanic and atmospheric phenomena, which are related to variations in weather patterns and crop yields worldwide. In terms of crop production, the most widespread impacts have been observed for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has been found to impact crop yields on all continents that produce crops, while two other climate oscillations - the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) - have been shown to especially impact crop production in Australia and Europe, respectively. In this study, we analyse the impacts of ENSO, IOD, and NAO on the growing conditions of maize, rice, soybean, and wheat at the global scale by utilising crop yield data from an ensemble of global gridded crop models simulated for a range of crop management scenarios. Our results show that, while accounting for their potential co-variation, climate oscillations are correlated with simulated crop yield variability to a wide extent (half of all maize and wheat harvested areas for ENSO) and in several important crop-producing areas, e.g. in North America (ENSO, wheat), Australia (IOD and ENSO, wheat), and northern South America (ENSO, soybean). Further, our analyses show that higher sensitivity to these oscillations can be observed for rainfed and fully fertilised scenarios, while the sensitivity tends to be lower if crops were to be fully irrigated. Since the development of ENSO, IOD, and NAO can potentially be forecasted well in advance, a better understanding about the relationship between crop production and these climate oscillations can improve the resilience of the global food system to climate-related shocks. © 2020 American Institute of Physics Inc.. All rights reserved.
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    New archaeomagnetic secular variation data from Central Europe. I: Directions
    (Oxford : Oxford Univ. Press, 2020) Schnepp, Elisabeth; Thallner, Daniele; Arneitz, Patrick; Mauritsch, Hermann; Scholger, Robert; Rolf, Christian; Leonhardt, Roman
    Archaeomagnetic directions of 141 archaeological structures have been studied from 21 sites in Austria, 31 sites in Germany and one site in Switzerland. Characteristic remanent magnetization directions obtained from alternating field and thermal demagnetizations provided 82 and 78 new or updated (12 and 10 per cent) directions of Austria and Germany, respectively. Nine of the directions are not reliable for certain reasons (e.g. displacement) while three of the features are not well dated. Apart from this some updated age information for the published databases is provided. Rock magnetic experiments revealed magnetite as main magnetic carrier of the remanences. The new data agree well with existing secular variation reference curves. The extended data set covers now the past 3500 yr and a lot of progress were made to cover times BC with data. Here enhanced secular variation is observed manifested in declinations with values up to 70°. The new data will allow for recalculation of archaeomagnetic calibration curves for Central Europe from mid Bronze Age until today. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Royal Astronomical Society.
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    Uncertainty of simulated groundwater recharge at different global warming levels: a global-scale multi-model ensemble study
    (Munich : EGU, 2021) Reinecke, Robert; Müller Schmied, Hannes; Trautmann, Tim; Andersen, Lauren Seaby; Burek, Peter; Flörke, Martina; Gosling, Simon N.; Grillakis, Manolis; Hanasaki, Naota; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Pokhrel, Yadu; Thiery, Wim; Wada, Yoshihide; Yusuke, Satoh; Döll, Petra
    Billions of people rely on groundwater as being an accessible source of drinking water and for irrigation, especially in times of drought. Its importance will likely increase with a changing climate. It is still unclear, however, how climate change will impact groundwater systems globally and, thus, the availability of this vital resource. Groundwater recharge is an important indicator for groundwater availability, but it is a water flux that is difficult to estimate as uncertainties in the water balance accumulate, leading to possibly large errors in particular in dry regions. This study investigates uncertainties in groundwater recharge projections using a multi-model ensemble of eight global hydrological models (GHMs) that are driven by the bias-adjusted output of four global circulation models (GCMs). Pre-industrial and current groundwater recharge values are compared with recharge for different global warming (GW) levels as a result of three representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Results suggest that projected changes strongly vary among the different GHM–GCM combinations, and statistically significant changes are only computed for a few regions of the world. Statistically significant GWR increases are projected for northern Europe and some parts of the Arctic, East Africa, and India. Statistically significant decreases are simulated in southern Chile, parts of Brazil, central USA, the Mediterranean, and southeastern China. In some regions, reversals of groundwater recharge trends can be observed with global warming. Because most GHMs do not simulate the impact of changing atmospheric CO2 and climate on vegetation and, thus, evapotranspiration, we investigate how estimated changes in GWR are affected by the inclusion of these processes. In some regions, inclusion leads to differences in groundwater recharge changes of up to 100 mm per year. Most GHMs with active vegetation simulate less severe decreases in groundwater recharge than GHMs without active vegetation and, in some regions, even increases instead of decreases are simulated. However, in regions where GCMs predict decreases in precipitation and where groundwater availability is the most important, model agreement among GHMs with active vegetation is the lowest. Overall, large uncertainties in the model outcomes suggest that additional research on simulating groundwater processes in GHMs is necessary.
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    Multidecadal trend analysis of in situ aerosol radiative properties around the world
    (Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2020) Collaud Coen, Martine; Andrews, Elisabeth; Alastuey, Andrés; Petkov Arsov, Todor; Backman, John; Brem, Benjamin T.; Bukowiecki, Nicolas; Couret, Cédric; Eleftheriadis, Konstantinos; Flentje, Harald; Fiebig, Markus; Gysel-Beer, Martin; Hand, Jenny L.; Hoffer, András; Hooda, Rakesh; Hueglin, Christoph; Joubert, Warren; Keywood, Melita; Eun Kim, Jeong; Kim, Sang-Woo; Labuschagne, Casper; Lin, Neng-Huei; Lin, Yong; Lund Myhre, Cathrine; Luoma, Krista; Lyamani, Hassan; Marinoni, Angela; Mayol-Bracero, Olga L.; Mihalopoulos, Nikos; Pandolfi, Marco; Prats, Natalia; Prenni, Anthony J.; Putaud, Jean-Philippe; Ries, Ludwig; Reisen, Fabienne; Sellegri, Karine; Sharma, Sangeeta; Sheridan, Patrick; Sherman, James Patrick; Sun, Junying; Titos, Gloria; Torres, Elvis; Tuch, Thomas; Weller, Rolf; Wiedensohler, Alfred; Zieger, Paul; Laj, Paolo
    In order to assess the evolution of aerosol parameters affecting climate change, a long-term trend analysis of aerosol optical properties was performed on time series from 52 stations situated across five continents. The time series of measured scattering, backscattering and absorption coefficients as well as the derived single scattering albedo, backscattering fraction, scattering and absorption Ångström exponents covered at least 10 years and up to 40 years for some stations. The non-parametric seasonal Mann-Kendall (MK) statistical test associated with several pre-whitening methods and with Sen's slope was used as the main trend analysis method. Comparisons with general least mean square associated with autoregressive bootstrap (GLS/ARB) and with standard least mean square analysis (LMS) enabled confirmation of the detected MK statistically significant trends and the assessment of advantages and limitations of each method. Currently, scattering and backscattering coefficient trends are mostly decreasing in Europe and North America and are not statistically significant in Asia, while polar stations exhibit a mix of increasing and decreasing trends. A few increasing trends are also found at some stations in North America and Australia. Absorption coefficient time series also exhibit primarily decreasing trends. For single scattering albedo, 52 % of the sites exhibit statistically significant positive trends, mostly in Asia, eastern/northern Europe and the Arctic, 22 % of sites exhibit statistically significant negative trends, mostly in central Europe and central North America, while the remaining 26 % of sites have trends which are not statistically significant. In addition to evaluating trends for the overall time series, the evolution of the trends in sequential 10-year segments was also analyzed. For scattering and backscattering, statistically significant increasing 10-year trends are primarily found for earlier periods (10-year trends ending in 2010-2015) for polar stations and Mauna Loa. For most of the stations, the present-day statistically significant decreasing 10-year trends of the single scattering albedo were preceded by not statistically significant and statistically significant increasing 10-year trends. The effect of air pollution abatement policies in continental North America is very obvious in the 10-year trends of the scattering coefficient - there is a shift to statistically significant negative trends in 2009-2012 for all stations in the eastern and central USA. This long-term trend analysis of aerosol radiative properties with a broad spatial coverage provides insight into potential aerosol effects on climate changes. © 2020 Royal Society of Chemistry. All rights reserved.
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    Dansgaard-Oeschger-like events of the penultimate climate cycle: The loess point of view
    (Katlenburg-Lindau : Copernicus Ges., 2020) Rousseau, Denis-Didier; Antoine, Pierre; Boers, Niklas; Lagroix, France; Ghil, Michael; Lomax, Johanna; Fuchs, Markus; Debret, Maxime; Hatté, Christine; Moine, Olivier; Gauthier, Caroline; Jordanova, Diana; Jordanova, Neli
    The global character of the millennial-scale climate variability associated with the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events in Greenland has been well-established for the last glacial cycle. Mainly due to the sparsity of reliable data, however, the spatial coherence of corresponding variability during the penultimate cycle is less clear. New investigations of European loess records from Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 6 reveal the occurrence of alternating loess intervals and paleosols (incipient soil horizons), similar to those from the last climatic cycle. These paleosols are correlated, based on their stratigraphical position and numbers as well as available optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dates, with interstadials described in various Northern Hemisphere records and in GLt_syn, the synthetic 800 kyr record of Greenland ice core