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- ItemLandscape matters: Insights from the impact of mega-droughts on Colombia's energy transition(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2020) Weng, Wei; Becker, Stefanie L.; Lüdeke, Matthias K. B.; Lakes, TobiaMega-droughts can cause disruption to the affected society sparking a transition. We explore the causes and effects of the 2015−2016 mega-drought in Colombia. Using the multi-level perspective as a framework, we found that the mega-drought sparked an energy transition in Colombia whose dynamics were impacted both by the institutionalization of niches as well as the ability to predict the next drought. We were able to trace, using the current understanding of anthropogenic forces, the cause of the mega-drought to socio-technical landscape development influenced by human-induced warming and land use change. We found that the regimes in Bolivia and Brazil were able to influence the landscape through deforestation, and hence contribute to the intensity of a mega-drought in Colombia. The knowledge that a regime can cause disruption in regimes in other geographies and sectors has implications for transition research as well as decision-making for coping with droughts and other disasters. © 2020
- ItemImproving the evidence base: A methodological review of the quantitative climate migration literature(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2021) Hoffmann, Roman; Šedová, Barbora; Vinke, KiraThe question whether and how climatic factors influence human migration has gained both academic and public interest in the past years. Based on two meta-analyses, this paper systematically reviews the quantitative empirical literature on climate-related migration from a methodological perspective. In total, information from 127 original micro- and macro-level studies is analyzed to assess how different concepts, research designs, and analytical methods shape our understanding of climate migration. We provide an overview of common methodological approaches and present evidence on their potential implications for the estimation of climatic impacts. We identify five key challenges, which relate to the i) measurement of migration and ii) climatic events, iii) the integration and aggregation of data, iv) the identification of causal relationships, and v) the exploration of contextual influences and mechanisms. Advances in research and modelling are discussed together with best practice cases to provide guidance to researchers studying the climate-migration nexus. We recommend for future empirical studies to employ approaches that are of relevance for and reflect local contexts, ensuring high levels of comparability and transparency.
- ItemClimate change impacts on European arable crop yields: Sensitivity to assumptions about rotations and residue management(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2022) Faye, Babacar; Webber, Heidi; Gaiser, Thomas; Müller, Christoph; Zhang, Yinan; Stella, Tommaso; Latka, Catharina; Reckling, Moritz; Heckelei, Thomas; Helming, Katharina; Ewert, FrankMost large scale studies assessing climate change impacts on crops are performed with simulations of single crops and with annual re-initialization of the initial soil conditions. This is in contrast to the reality that crops are grown in rotations, often with sizable proportion of the preceding crop residue to be left in the fields and varying soil initial conditions from year to year. In this study, the sensitivity of climate change impacts on crop yield and soil organic carbon to assumptions about annual model re-initialization, specification of crop rotations and the amount of residue retained in fields was assessed for seven main crops across Europe. Simulations were conducted for a scenario period 2040–2065 relative to a baseline from 1980 to 2005 using the SIMPLACE1 framework. Results indicated across Europe positive climate change impacts on yield for C3 crops and negative impacts for maize. The consideration of simulating rotations did not have a benefit on yield variability but on relative yield change in response to climate change which slightly increased for C3 crops and decreased for C4 crops when rotation was considered. Soil organic carbon decreased under climate change in both simulations assuming a continuous monocrop and plausible rotations by between 1% and 2% depending on the residue management strategy.
- ItemThe impact of climate conditions on economic production. Evidence from a global panel of regions(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2020) Kalkuhl, Matthias; Wenz, LeonieWe present a novel data set of subnational economic output, Gross Regional Product (GRP), for more than 1500 regions in 77 countries that allows us to empirically estimate historic climate impacts at different time scales. Employing annual panel models, long-difference regressions and cross-sectional regressions, we identify effects on productivity levels and productivity growth. We do not find evidence for permanent growth rate impacts but we find robust evidence that temperature affects productivity levels considerably. An increase in global mean surface temperature by about 3.5°C until the end of the century would reduce global output by 7–14% in 2100, with even higher damages in tropical and poor regions. Updating the DICE damage function with our estimates suggests that the social cost of carbon from temperature-induced productivity losses is on the order of 73–142$/tCO2 in 2020, rising to 92–181$/tCO2 in 2030. These numbers exclude non-market damages and damages from extreme weather events or sea-level rise. © 2020 The Authors
- ItemSustainable food protein supply reconciling human and ecosystem health: A Leibniz Position(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2020) Weindl, Isabelle; Ost, Mario; Wiedmer, Petra; Schreiner, Monika; Neugart, Susanne; Klopsch, Rebecca; Kühnhold, Holger; Kloas, Werner; Henkel, Ina M.; Schlüter, Oliver; Bußler, Sara; Bellingrath-Kimura, Sonoko D.; Ma, Hua; Grune, Tilman; Rolinski, Susanne; Klaus, SusanneMany global health risks are related to what and how much we eat. At the same time, the production of food, especially from animal origin, contributes to environmental change at a scale that threatens boundaries of a safe operating space for humanity. Here we outline viable solutions how to reconcile healthy protein consumption and sustainable protein production which requires a solid, interdisciplinary evidence base. We review the role of proteins for human and ecosystem health, including physiological effects of dietary proteins, production potentials from agricultural and aquaculture systems, environmental impacts of protein production, and mitigation potentials of transforming current production systems. Various protein sources from plant and animal origin, including insects and fish, are discussed in the light of their health and environmental implications. Integration of available knowledge is essential to move from a dual problem description (“healthy diets versus environment”) towards approaches that frame the food challenge of reconciling human and ecosystem health in the context of planetary health. This endeavor requires a shifting focus from metrics at the level of macronutrients to whole diets and a better understanding of the full cascade of health effects caused by dietary proteins, including health risks from food-related environmental degradation. © 2020
- ItemThe role of nitrogen in achieving sustainable food systems for healthy diets(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2020) Leip, Adrian; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Kugelberg, SusannaThe ‘food system’ urgently needs a sustainable transformation. Two major challenges have to be solved: the food system has to provide food security with healthy, accessible, affordable, safe and diverse food for all, and it has to do so within the safe operating space of the planetary boundaries, where the pollution from reactive nitrogen turned out to be the largest bottleneck. Here we argue that thinking strategically about how to balance nitrogen flows throughout the food system will make current food systems more resilient and robust. Looking from a material and a governance perspective on the food system, we highlight major nitrogen losses and policy blind spots originating from a compartmentalization of food system spheres. We conclude that a participatory and integrated approach to manage nitrogen flows throughout the food system is necessary to stay within regional and global nitrogen boundaries, and will additionally provide synergies with a sustainable and healthy diet for all. © 2020 The Authors
- ItemUnderstanding adaptive capacity of smallholder African indigenous vegetable farmers to climate change in Kenya(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2020) Chepkoech, Winifred; Mungai, Nancy W.; Stöber, Silke; Lotze-Campen, HermannUnderstanding the adaptive capacity (AC) of farmers is crucial to planning effective adaptation. Action to promote farmers’ AC is required because climate change (CC) is resulting in unpredictable alterations in weather patterns. Based on the sustainable livelihoods framework (SLF), this study explored how access to natural, physical, financial, social and human capitals enhances the AC. Quantitative data from 269 African indigenous vegetable (AIV) farmers in three selected agro-climatic zones in Kenya were analysed. Four indicators in each capital were selected based on previous studies and judgments collected from an expert online ranking survey (n = 35). The Kruskal-Wallis H test and an independent sample t-test were used to test the independence of AC scores and access to the different resources. The findings showed that the majority of farmers (53%) had a moderate AC, while fewer (32%) and (15%) had low or high AC levels respectively. Disparities in adaptive capacity scores were recorded between respondents in terms of their age, marital status and location. Farmers had high access to social capital but low access to financial, natural and human capitals. Female farmers showed lower capacities in the areas of financial, human and natural resources, while their male counterparts had low access to some human and social capitals. Resilient interventions that target individuals with low adaptive capacities are required. © 2020 The Authors
- ItemWildlife-vehicle collisions in hurungwe safari area, northern zimbabwe(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2020) Gandiwa, Edson; Mashapa, Clayton; Muboko, Never; Chemura, Abel; Kuvaoga, Phillip; Mabika, Cheryl T.This study is the first to assess wildlife-vehicle collisions (WVC) in Zimbabwe. The study analysed the impact and factors that influence vehicle collisions with large wild mammals along the Harare-Chirundu road section in the protected Hurungwe Safari Area, northern Zimbabwe. Data were retrieved from the Hurungwe Safari Area records and covered the period between 2006 and 2013. Descriptive statistics were used to analyse the recorded variables across the sampled area and to show trends of the prevalence of large wild mammals roadkill over time. Using STATISTICA version 10 for Windows, a two-tailed Mann-Whitney U test was used to determine differences between the number of wild mammal animal roadkills and seasons. A total of 47 large wild mammal animals were killed between 2006 and 2013. The large wild mammal animals that died as a result of vehicle collisions constituted a total of 11 species, with the African buffalo and spotted hyena being the most hit and killed animal species. Most WVC involved heavy haulage trucks and passenger buses. There was no significance difference (P = 0.936) between number of large wild mammal animals killed from WVC between dry and wet seasons. The large wild mammal animals were mostly killed in areas near water sources. We recommend for the inclusion of wildlife protection safeguards in road infrastructure network design and development, particularly on roads that traverse across protected areas in Zimbabwe and beyond. © 2020 The Author(s)
- ItemThe social cost of carbon and inequality: When local redistribution shapes global carbon prices(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2021) Kornek, Ulrike; Klenert, David; Edenhofer, Ottmar; Fleurbaey, MarcThe social cost of carbon is a central metric for optimal carbon prices. Previous literature shows that inequality significantly influences the social cost of carbon, but mostly omits heterogeneity below the national level. We present an optimal taxation model of the social cost of carbon that accounts for inequality between and within countries. We find that climate and distributional policy can generally not be separated. If only one country does not compensate low-income households for disproportionate damages, the social cost of carbon tends to increase globally. Optimal carbon prices remain roughly unchanged if national redistribution leaves inequality between households unaffected by climate change and if the utility of households is approximately logarithmic in consumption.
- ItemGlobal and country-level data of the biodiversity footprints of 175 crops and pasture(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2021) Beyer, Robert; Manica, AndreaThe destruction of natural habitat for cropland and pasture represents a major threat to global biodiversity. Despite widespread societal concern about biodiversity loss associated with food production, consumer access to quantitative estimates of the impact of crop production on the world's species has been very limited compared to assessments of other environmental variables such as greenhouse gas emissions or water use. Here, we present a consistent dataset of the biodiversity footprints of pasture and 175 crops at the global and national level. The data were generated by combining maps of the global distribution of agricultural areas in the year 2000 with spatially explicit estimates of the biodiversity loss associated with the conversion of natural habitat to farmland. Estimates were derived for three common alternative measures of biodiversity - species richness, threatened species richness, and range rarity - of the world's mammals, birds, and amphibians. Our dataset provides important quantitative information for food consumers and policy makers, allowing them to take evidence-based decisions to reduce the biodiversity footprint of global food production.