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- ItemComparison of particle number size distribution trends in ground measurements and climate models(Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2022) Leinonen, Ville; Kokkola, Harri; Yli-Juuti, Taina; Mielonen, Tero; KĂ¼hn, Thomas; Nieminen, Tuomo; Heikkinen, Simo; Miinalainen, Tuuli; Bergman, Tommi; Carslaw, Ken; Decesari, Stefano; Fiebig, Markus; Hussein, Tareq; Kivekäs, Niku; Krejci, Radovan; Kulmala, Markku; Leskinen, Ari; Massling, Andreas; Mihalopoulos, Nikos; Mulcahy, Jane P.; Noe, Steffen M.; van Noije, Twan; O'Connor, Fiona M.; O'Dowd, Colin; Olivie, Dirk; Pernov, Jakob B.; Petäjä, Tuukka; Seland, Ă˜yvind; Schulz, Michael; Scott, Catherine E.; Skov, Henrik; Swietlicki, Erik; Tuch, Thomas; Wiedensohler, Alfred; Virtanen, Annele; Mikkonen, SanttuDespite a large number of studies, out of all drivers of radiative forcing, the effect of aerosols has the largest uncertainty in global climate model radiative forcing estimates. There have been studies of aerosol optical properties in climate models, but the effects of particle number size distribution need a more thorough inspection. We investigated the trends and seasonality of particle number concentrations in nucleation, Aitken, and accumulation modes at 21 measurement sites in Europe and the Arctic. For 13 of those sites, with longer measurement time series, we compared the field observations with the results from five climate models, namely EC-Earth3, ECHAM-M7, ECHAM-SALSA, NorESM1.2, and UKESM1. This is the first extensive comparison of detailed aerosol size distribution trends between in situ observations from Europe and five earth system models (ESMs). We found that the trends of particle number concentrations were mostly consistent and decreasing in both measurements and models. However, for many sites, climate models showed weaker decreasing trends than the measurements. Seasonal variability in measured number concentrations, quantified by the ratio between maximum and minimum monthly number concentration, was typically stronger at northern measurement sites compared to other locations. Models had large differences in their seasonal representation, and they can be roughly divided into two categories: for EC-Earth and NorESM, the seasonal cycle was relatively similar for all sites, and for other models the pattern of seasonality varied between northern and southern sites. In addition, the variability in concentrations across sites varied between models, some having relatively similar concentrations for all sites, whereas others showed clear differences in concentrations between remote and urban sites. To conclude, although all of the model simulations had identical input data to describe anthropogenic mass emissions, trends in differently sized particles vary among the models due to assumptions in emission sizes and differences in how models treat size-dependent aerosol processes. The inter-model variability was largest in the accumulation mode, i.e. sizes which have implications for aerosol-cloud interactions. Our analysis also indicates that between models there is a large variation in efficiency of long-range transportation of aerosols to remote locations. The differences in model results are most likely due to the more complex effect of different processes instead of one specific feature (e.g. the representation of aerosol or emission size distributions). Hence, a more detailed characterization of microphysical processes and deposition processes affecting the long-range transport is needed to understand the model variability.
- ItemMultidecadal trend analysis of in situ aerosol radiative properties around the world(Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2020) Collaud Coen, Martine; Andrews, Elisabeth; Alastuey, AndrĂ©s; Petkov Arsov, Todor; Backman, John; Brem, Benjamin T.; Bukowiecki, Nicolas; Couret, CĂ©dric; Eleftheriadis, Konstantinos; Flentje, Harald; Fiebig, Markus; Gysel-Beer, Martin; Hand, Jenny L.; Hoffer, AndrĂ¡s; Hooda, Rakesh; Hueglin, Christoph; Joubert, Warren; Keywood, Melita; Eun Kim, Jeong; Kim, Sang-Woo; Labuschagne, Casper; Lin, Neng-Huei; Lin, Yong; Lund Myhre, Cathrine; Luoma, Krista; Lyamani, Hassan; Marinoni, Angela; Mayol-Bracero, Olga L.; Mihalopoulos, Nikos; Pandolfi, Marco; Prats, Natalia; Prenni, Anthony J.; Putaud, Jean-Philippe; Ries, Ludwig; Reisen, Fabienne; Sellegri, Karine; Sharma, Sangeeta; Sheridan, Patrick; Sherman, James Patrick; Sun, Junying; Titos, Gloria; Torres, Elvis; Tuch, Thomas; Weller, Rolf; Wiedensohler, Alfred; Zieger, Paul; Laj, PaoloIn order to assess the evolution of aerosol parameters affecting climate change, a long-term trend analysis of aerosol optical properties was performed on time series from 52 stations situated across five continents. The time series of measured scattering, backscattering and absorption coefficients as well as the derived single scattering albedo, backscattering fraction, scattering and absorption Ă…ngström exponents covered at least 10 years and up to 40 years for some stations. The non-parametric seasonal Mann-Kendall (MK) statistical test associated with several pre-whitening methods and with Sen's slope was used as the main trend analysis method. Comparisons with general least mean square associated with autoregressive bootstrap (GLS/ARB) and with standard least mean square analysis (LMS) enabled confirmation of the detected MK statistically significant trends and the assessment of advantages and limitations of each method. Currently, scattering and backscattering coefficient trends are mostly decreasing in Europe and North America and are not statistically significant in Asia, while polar stations exhibit a mix of increasing and decreasing trends. A few increasing trends are also found at some stations in North America and Australia. Absorption coefficient time series also exhibit primarily decreasing trends. For single scattering albedo, 52 % of the sites exhibit statistically significant positive trends, mostly in Asia, eastern/northern Europe and the Arctic, 22 % of sites exhibit statistically significant negative trends, mostly in central Europe and central North America, while the remaining 26 % of sites have trends which are not statistically significant. In addition to evaluating trends for the overall time series, the evolution of the trends in sequential 10-year segments was also analyzed. For scattering and backscattering, statistically significant increasing 10-year trends are primarily found for earlier periods (10-year trends ending in 2010-2015) for polar stations and Mauna Loa. For most of the stations, the present-day statistically significant decreasing 10-year trends of the single scattering albedo were preceded by not statistically significant and statistically significant increasing 10-year trends. The effect of air pollution abatement policies in continental North America is very obvious in the 10-year trends of the scattering coefficient - there is a shift to statistically significant negative trends in 2009-2012 for all stations in the eastern and central USA. This long-term trend analysis of aerosol radiative properties with a broad spatial coverage provides insight into potential aerosol effects on climate changes. © 2020 Royal Society of Chemistry. All rights reserved.
- ItemEstimation of cloud condensation nuclei number concentrations and comparison to in situ and lidar observations during the HOPE experiments(Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2020) Genz, Christa; Schrödner, Roland; Heinold, Bernd; Henning, Silvia; Baars, Holger; Spindler, Gerald; Tegen, InaAtmospheric aerosol particles are the precondition for the formation of cloud droplets and therefore have large influence on the microphysical and radiative properties of clouds. In this work, four different methods to derive or measure number concentrations of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) were analyzed and compared for presentday aerosol conditions: (i) a model parameterization based on simulated particle concentrations, (ii) the same parameterization based on gravimetrical particle measurements, (iii) direct CCN measurements with a CCN counter, and (iv) lidarderived and in situ measured vertical CCN profiles. In order to allow for sensitivity studies of the anthropogenic impact, a scenario to estimate the maximum CCN concentration under peak aerosol conditions of the mid-1980s in Europe was developed as well. In general, the simulations are in good agreement with the observations. At ground level, average values between 0.7 and 1:5 × 109 CCNm-3 at a supersaturation of 0.2 % were found with the different methods under present-day conditions. The discrimination of the chemical species revealed an almost equal contribution of ammonium sulfate and ammonium nitrate to the total number of CCN for present-day conditions. This was not the case for the peak aerosol scenario, in which it was assumed that no ammonium nitrate was formed while large amounts of sulfate were present, consuming all available ammonia during ammonium sulfate formation. The CCN number concentration at five different supersaturation values has been compared to the measurements. The discrepancies between model and in situ observations were lowest for the lowest (0.1 %) and highest supersaturations (0.7 %). For supersaturations between 0.3 % and 0.5 %, the model overestimated the potentially activated particle fraction by around 30 %. By comparing the simulation with observed profiles, the vertical distribution of the CCN concentration was found to be overestimated by up to a factor of 2 in the boundary layer. The analysis of the modern (year 2013) and the peak aerosol scenario (expected to be representative of the mid-1980s over Europe) resulted in a scaling factor, which was defined as the quotient of the average vertical profile of the peak aerosol and present-day CCN concentration. This factor was found to be around 2 close to the ground, increasing to around 3.5 between 2 and 5 km and approaching 1 (i.e., no difference between present-day and peak aerosol conditions) with further increasing height. © 2020 Author(s).