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End date: 2024 × DDC: 333,7 × DDC: 570 × Has files: Yes × WGL Institute: PIK ×

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Now showing 1 - 5 of 5
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    Design and quality criteria for archetype analysis
    (Wolfville, Nova Scotia : Resilience Alliance, 2019) Eisenack, Klaus; Villamayor-Tomas, Sergio; Epstein, Graham; Kimmich, Christian; Magliocca, Nicholas; Manuel-Navarrete, David; Oberlack, Christoph; Roggero, Matteo; Sietz, Diana
    A key challenge in addressing the global degradation of natural resources and the environment is to effectively transfer successful strategies across heterogeneous contexts. Archetype analysis is a particularly salient approach in this regard that helps researchers to understand and compare patterns of (un)sustainability in heterogeneous cases. Archetype analysis avoids traps of overgeneralization and ideography by identifying reappearing but nonuniversal patterns that hold for well-defined subsets of cases. It can be applied by researchers working in inter-or transdisciplinary settings to study sustainability issues from a broad range of theoretical and methodological standpoints. However, there is still an urgent need for quality standards to guide the design of theoretically rigorous and practically useful archetype analyses. To this end, we propose four quality criteria and corresponding research strategies to address them: (1) specify the domain of validity for each archetype, (2) ensure that archetypes can be combined to characterize single cases, (3) explicitly navigate levels of abstraction, and (4) obtain a fit between attribute configurations, theories, and empirical domains of validity. These criteria are based on a stocktaking of current methodological challenges in archetypes research, including: to demonstrate the validity of the analysis, delineate boundaries of archetypes, and select appropriate attributes to define them. We thus contribute to a better common understanding of the approach and to the improvement of the research design of future archetype analyses. © 2019 by the author(s).
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    Archetype analysis in sustainability research: meanings, motivations, and evidence-based policy making
    (Wolfville, Nova Scotia : Resilience Alliance, 2019) Oberlack, Christoph; Sietz, Diana; Bürgi Bonanomi, Elisabeth; de Bremond, Ariane; Dell'Angelo, Jampel; Eisenack, Klaus; Ellis, Erle C.; Epstein, Graham; Giger, Markus; Heinimann, Andreas; Kimmich, Christian; Kok, Marcel TJ; Manuel-Navarrete, David; Messerli, Peter; Meyfroidt, Patrick; Václavík, Tomáš; Villamayor-Tomas, Sergio
    Archetypes are increasingly used as a methodological approach to understand recurrent patterns in variables and processes that shape the sustainability of social-ecological systems. The rapid growth and diversification of archetype analyses has generated variations, inconsistencies, and confusion about the meanings, potential, and limitations of archetypes. Based on a systematic review, a survey, and a workshop series, we provide a consolidated perspective on the core features and diverse meanings of archetype analysis in sustainability research, the motivations behind it, and its policy relevance. We identify three core features of archetype analysis: Recurrent patterns, multiple models, and intermediate abstraction. Two gradients help to apprehend the variety of meanings of archetype analysis that sustainability researchers have developed: (1) understanding archetypes as building blocks or as case typologies and (2) using archetypes for pattern recognition, diagnosis, or scenario development. We demonstrate how archetype analysis has been used to synthesize results from case studies, bridge the gap between global narratives and local realities, foster methodological interplay, and transfer knowledge about sustainability strategies across cases. We also critically examine the potential and limitations of archetype analysis in supporting evidence-based policy making through context-sensitive generalizations with case-level empirical validity. Finally, we identify future priorities, with a view to leveraging the full potential of archetype analysis for supporting sustainable development. © 2019 by the author(s).
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    Synthesizing plausible futures for biodiversity and ecosystem services in europe and central asia using scenario archetypes
    (Wolfville, Nova Scotia : Resilience Alliance, 2019) Harrison, Paula A.; Harmáčková, Zuzana V.; Karabulut, Armağan Aloe; Brotons, Lluis; Cantele, Matthew; Claudet, Joachim; Dunford, Robert W.; Guisan, Antoine; Holman, Ian P.; Jacobs, Sander; Kok, Kasper; Lobanova, Anastasia; Morán-Ordóñez, Alejandra; Pedde, Simona; Rixen, Christian; Santos-Martín, Fernando; Schlaepfer, Martin A.; Solidoro, Cosimo; Sonrel, Anthony; Hauck, Jennifer
    Scenarios are a useful tool to explore possible futures of social-ecological systems. The number of scenarios has increased dramatically over recent decades, with a large diversity in temporal and spatial scales, purposes, themes, development methods, and content. Scenario archetypes generically describe future developments and can be useful in meaningfully classifying scenarios, structuring and summarizing the overwhelming amount of information, and enabling scientific outputs to more effectively interface with decision-making frameworks. The Intergovernmental Platform for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) faced this challenge and used scenario archetypes in its assessment of future interactions between nature and society. We describe the use of scenario archetypes in the IPBES Regional Assessment of Europe and Central Asia. Six scenario archetypes for the region are described in terms of their driver assumptions and impacts on nature (including biodiversity) and its contributions to people (including ecosystem services): Business-as-usual, economic optimism, regional competition, regional sustainability, global sustainable development, and inequality. The analysis shows that trade-offs between nature’s contributions to people are projected under different scenario archetypes. However, the means of resolving these trade-offs depend on differing political and societal value judgements within each scenario archetype. Scenarios that include proactive decision making on environmental issues, environmental management approaches that support multifunctionality, and mainstreaming environmental issues across sectors, are generally more successful in mitigating tradeoffs than isolated environmental policies. Furthermore, those scenario archetypes that focus on achieving a balanced supply of nature’s contributions to people and that incorporate a diversity of values are estimated to achieve more policy goals and targets, such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals and the Convention on Biological Diversity Aichi targets. The scenario archetypes approach is shown to be helpful in supporting science-policy dialogue for proactive decision making that anticipates change, mitigates undesirable trade-offs, and fosters societal transformation in pursuit of sustainable development. © 2019 by the author(s).
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    Advances in Understanding and Managing Catastrophic Ecosystem Shifts in Mediterranean Ecosystems
    (Lausanne : Frontiers Media, 2020) van den Elsen, Erik; Stringer, Lindsay C.; De Ita, Cecilia; Hessel, Rudi; Kéfi, Sonia; Schneider, Florian D.; Bautista, Susana; Mayor, Angeles G.; Baudena, Mara; Rietkerk, Max; Valdecantos, Alejandro; Vallejo, Victoriano R.; Geeson, Nichola; Brandt, C. Jane; Fleskens, Luuk; Hemerik, Lia; Panagos, Panos; Valente, Sandra; Keizer, Jan J.; Schwilch, Gudrun; Jucker Riva, Matteo; Sietz, Diana; Christoforou, Michalakis; Hadjimitsis, Diofantos G.; Papoutsa, Christiana; Quaranta, Giovanni; Salvia, Rosanna; Tsanis, Ioannis K.; Daliakopoulos, Ioannis; Claringbould, Heleen; de Ruiter, Peter C.
    One of the most challenging issues in Mediterranean ecosystems to date has been to understand the emergence of discontinuous changes or catastrophic shifts. In the era of the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals, which encompass ideas around Land Degradation Neutrality, advancing this understanding has become even more critical and urgent. The aim of this paper is to synthesize insights into the drivers, processes and management of catastrophic shifts to highlight ways forward for the management of Mediterranean ecosystems. We use a multidisciplinary approach that extends beyond the typical single site, single scale, single approach studies in the current literature. We link applied and theoretical ecology at multiple scales with analyses and modeling of human–environment–climate relations and stakeholder engagement in six field sites in Mediterranean ecosystems to address three key questions: How do major degradation drivers affect ecosystem functioning and services in Mediterranean ecosystems? What processes happen in the soil and vegetation during a catastrophic shift? How can management of vulnerable ecosystems be optimized using these findings? Drawing together the findings from the use of different approaches allows us to address the whole pipeline of changes from drivers through to action. We highlight ways to assess ecosystem vulnerability that can help to prevent ecosystem shifts to undesirable states; identify cost-effective management measures that align with the vision and plans of land users; and evaluate the timing of these measures to enable optimization of their application before thresholds are reached. Such a multidisciplinary approach enables improved identification of early warning signals for discontinuous changes informing more timely and cost-effective management, allowing anticipation of, adaptation to, or even prevention of, undesirable catastrophic ecosystem shifts. © Copyright © 2020 van den Elsen, Stringer, De Ita, Hessel, Kéfi, Schneider, Bautista, Mayor, Baudena, Rietkerk, Valdecantos, Vallejo, Geeson, Brandt, Fleskens, Hemerik, Panagos, Valente, Keizer, Schwilch, Jucker Riva, Sietz, Christoforou, Hadjimitsis, Papoutsa, Quaranta, Salvia, Tsanis, Daliakopoulos, Claringbould and de Ruiter.
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    Challenges in producing policy-relevant global scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services
    (Amsterdam : Elsevier, 2020) Rosa, Isabel M.D.; Purvis, Andy; Alkemade, Rob; Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca; Ferrier, Simon; Guerra, Carlos A.; Hurtt, George; Kim, HyeJin; Leadley, Paul; Martins, Inês S.; Popp, Alexander; Schipper, Aafke M.; van Vuuren, Detlef; Pereira, Henrique M.
    Scenario-based modelling is a powerful tool to describe relationships between plausible trajectories of drivers, possible policy interventions, and impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Model inter-comparisons are key in quantifying uncertainties and identifying avenues for model improvement but have been missing among the global biodiversity and ecosystem services modelling communities. The biodiversity and ecosystem services scenario-based inter-model comparison (BES-SIM) aims to fill this gap. We used global land-use and climate projections to simulate possible future impacts on terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services using a variety of models and a range of harmonized metrics. The goal of this paper is to reflect on the steps taken in BES-SIM, identify remaining methodological challenges, and suggest pathways for improvement. We identified five major groups of challenges; the need to: 1) better account for the role of nature in future human development storylines; 2) improve the representation of drivers in the scenarios by increasing the resolution (temporal, spatial and thematic) of land-use as key driver of biodiversity change and including additional relevant drivers; 3) explicitly integrate species- and trait-level biodiversity in ecosystem services models; 4) expand the coverage of the multiple dimensions of biodiversity and ecosystem services; and finally, 5) incorporate time-series or one-off historical data in the calibration and validation of biodiversity and ecosystem services models. Addressing these challenges would allow the development of more integrated global projections of biodiversity and ecosystem services, thereby improving their policy relevance in supporting the interlinked international conservation and sustainable development agendas. © 2019 The Authors