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- ItemDIVA: An iterative method for building modular integrated models(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2005) Hinkel, J.Integrated modelling of global environmental change impacts faces the challenge that knowledge from the domains of Natural and Social Science must be integrated. This is complicated by often incompatible terminology and the fact that the interactions between subsystems are usually not fully understood at the start of the project. While a modular modelling approach is necessary to address these challenges, it is not sufficient. The remaining question is how the modelled system shall be cut down into modules. While no generic answer can be given to this question, communication tools can be provided to support the process of modularisation and integration. Along those lines of thought a method for building modular integrated models was developed within the EU project DINAS-COAST and applied to construct a first model, which assesses the vulnerability of the world’s coasts to climate change and sea-level-rise. The method focuses on the development of a common language and offers domain experts an intuitive interface to code their knowledge in form of modules. However, instead of rigorously defining interfaces between the subsystems at the project’s beginning, an iterative model development process is defined and tools to facilitate communication and collaboration are provided. This flexible approach has the advantage that increased understanding about subsystem interactions, gained during the project’s lifetime, can immediately be reflected in the model.
- ItemVertical profiles of aerosol mass concentration derived by unmanned airborne in situ and remote sensing instruments during dust events(Katlenburg-Lindau : Copernicus, 2018) Mamali, Dimitra; Marinou, Eleni; Sciare, Jean; Pikridas, Michael; Kokkalis, Panagiotis; Kottas, Michael; Binietoglou, Ioannis; Tsekeri, Alexandra; Keleshis, Christos; Engelmann, Ronny; Baars, Holger; Ansmann, Albert; Amiridis, Vassilis; Russchenberg, Herman; Biskos, GeorgeIn situ measurements using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and remote sensing observations can independently provide dense vertically resolved measurements of atmospheric aerosols, information which is strongly required in climate models. In both cases, inverting the recorded signals to useful information requires assumptions and constraints, and this can make the comparison of the results difficult. Here we compare, for the first time, vertical profiles of the aerosol mass concentration derived from light detection and ranging (lidar) observations and in situ measurements using an optical particle counter on board a UAV during moderate and weak Saharan dust episodes. Agreement between the two measurement methods was within experimental uncertainty for the coarse mode (i.e. particles having radii > 0.5 μm), where the properties of dust particles can be assumed with good accuracy. This result proves that the two techniques can be used interchangeably for determining the vertical profiles of aerosol concentrations, bringing them a step closer towards their systematic exploitation in climate models.
- ItemEvaluating stratospheric ozone and water vapour changes in CMIP6 models from 1850 to 2100(Katlenburg-Lindau : European Geosciences Union, 2021) Keeble, James; Hassler, Birgit; Banerjee, Antara; Checa-Garcia, Ramiro; Chiodo, Gabriel; Davis, Sean; Eyring, Veronika; Griffiths, Paul T.; Morgenstern, Olaf; Nowack, Peer; Zeng, Guang; Zhang, Jiankai; Bodeker, Greg; Burrows, Susannah; Cameron-Smith, Philip; Cugnet, David; Danek, Christopher; Deushi, Makoto; Horowitz, Larry W.; Kubin, Anne; Li, Lijuan; Lohmann, Gerrit; Michou, Martine; Mills, Michael J.; Nabat, Pierre; Olivié, Dirk; Park, Sungsu; Seland, Øyvind; Stoll, Jens; Wieners, Karl-Hermann; Wu, TongwenStratospheric ozone and water vapour are key components of the Earth system, and past and future changes to both have important impacts on global and regional climate. Here, we evaluate long-term changes in these species from the pre-industrial period (1850) to the end of the 21st century in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models under a range of future emissions scenarios. There is good agreement between the CMIP multi-model mean and observations for total column ozone (TCO), although there is substantial variation between the individual CMIP6 models. For the CMIP6 multi-model mean, global mean TCO has increased from ∼300 DU in 1850 to ∼ 305 DU in 1960, before rapidly declining in the 1970s and 1980s following the use and emission of halogenated ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). TCO is projected to return to 1960s values by the middle of the 21st century under the SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, and under the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios TCO values are projected to be ∼ 10 DU higher than the 1960s values by 2100. However, under the SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-1.6 scenarios, TCO is not projected to return to the 1960s values despite reductions in halogenated ODSs due to decreases in tropospheric ozone mixing ratios. This global pattern is similar to regional patterns, except in the tropics where TCO under most scenarios is not projected to return to 1960s values, either through reductions in tropospheric ozone under SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6, or through reductions in lower stratospheric ozone resulting from an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation under other Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). In contrast to TCO, there is poorer agreement between the CMIP6 multi-model mean and observed lower stratospheric water vapour mixing ratios, with the CMIP6 multi-model mean underestimating observed water vapour mixing ratios by ∼ 0.5 ppmv at 70 hPa. CMIP6 multi-model mean stratospheric water vapour mixing ratios in the tropical lower stratosphere have increased by ∼ 0.5 ppmv from the pre-industrial to the present-day period and are projected to increase further by the end of the 21st century. The largest increases (∼ 2 ppmv) are simulated under the future scenarios with the highest assumed forcing pathway (e.g. SSP5-8.5). Tropical lower stratospheric water vapour, and to a lesser extent TCO, shows large variations following explosive volcanic eruptions. © Author(s) 2021.
- ItemAnalysis of nucleation events in the European boundary layer using the regional aerosol-climate model REMO-HAM with a solar radiation-driven OH-proxy(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2014) Pietikäinen, J.-P.; Mikkonen, S.; Hamed, A.; Hienola, A.I.; Birmili, W.; Kulmala, M.; Laaksonen, A.This work describes improvements in the regional aerosol–climate model REMO-HAM in order to simulate more realistically the process of atmospheric new particle formation (NPF). A new scheme was implemented to simulate OH radical concentrations using a proxy approach based on observations and also accounting for the effects of clouds upon OH concentrations. Second, the nucleation rate calculation was modified to directly simulate the formation rates of 3 nm particles, which removes some unnecessary steps in the formation rate calculations used earlier in the model. Using the updated model version, NPF over Europe was simulated for the periods 2003–2004 and 2008–2009. The statistics of the simulated particle formation events were subsequently compared to observations from 13 ground-based measurement sites. The new model shows improved agreement with the observed NPF rates compared to former versions and can simulate the event statistics realistically for most parts of Europe.
- ItemCloud condensation nuclei in polluted air and biomass burning smoke near the mega-city Guangzhou, China – Part 2: Size-resolved aerosol chemical composition, diurnal cycles, and externally mixed weakly CCN-active soot particles(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2011) Rose, D.; Gunthe, S.S.; Su, H.; Garland, R.M.; Yang, H.; Berghof, M.; Cheng, Y.F.; Wehner, B.; Achtert, P.; Nowak, A.; Wiedensohler, A.; Takegawa, N.; Kondo, Y.; Hu, M.; Zhang, Y.; Andreae, M.O.; Pöschl, U.Size-resolved chemical composition, mixing state, and cloud condensation nucleus (CCN) activity of aerosol particles in polluted mega-city air and biomass burning smoke were measured during the PRIDE-PRD2006 campaign near Guangzhou, China, using an aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS), a volatility tandem differential mobility analyzer (VTDMA), and a continuous-flow CCN counter (DMT-CCNC). The size-dependence and temporal variations of the effective average hygroscopicity parameter for CCN-active particles (κa) could be parameterized as a function of organic and inorganic mass fractions (forg, finorg) determined by the AMS: κa,p=κorg·forg + κinorg·finorg. The characteristic κ values of organic and inorganic components were similar to those observed in other continental regions of the world: κorg≈0.1 and κinorg≈0.6. The campaign average κa values increased with particle size from ~0.25 at ~50 nm to ~0.4 at ~200 nm, while forg decreased with particle size. At ~50 nm, forg was on average 60% and increased to almost 100% during a biomass burning event. The VTDMA results and complementary aerosol optical data suggest that the large fractions of CCN-inactive particles observed at low supersaturations (up to 60% at S≤0.27%) were externally mixed weakly CCN-active soot particles with low volatility (diameter reduction <5% at 300 °C) and effective hygroscopicity parameters around κLV≈0.01. A proxy for the effective average hygroscopicity of the total ensemble of CCN-active particles including weakly CCN-active particles (κt) could be parameterized as a function of κa,p and the number fraction of low volatility particles determined by VTDMA (φLV): κt,p=κa,p−φLV·(κa,p−κLV). Based on κ values derived from AMS and VTDMA data, the observed CCN number concentrations (NCCN,S≈102–104 cm−3 at S = 0.068–0.47%) could be efficiently predicted from the measured particle number size distribution. The mean relative deviations between observed and predicted CCN concentrations were ~10% when using κt,p, and they increased to ~20% when using only κa,p. The mean relative deviations were not higher (~20%) when using an approximate continental average value of κ≈0.3, although the constant κ value cannot account for the observed temporal variations in particle composition and mixing state (diurnal cycles and biomass burning events). Overall, the results confirm that on a global and climate modeling scale an average value of κ≈0.3 can be used for approximate predictions of CCN number concentrations in continental boundary layer air when aerosol size distribution data are available without information about chemical composition. Bulk or size-resolved data on aerosol chemical composition enable improved CCN predictions resolving regional and temporal variations, but the composition data need to be highly accurate and complemented by information about particle mixing state to achieve high precision (relative deviations <20%).
- ItemChanges in alpine plant growth under future climate conditions(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2010) Rammig, A.; Jonas, T.; Zimmermann, N.E.; Rixen, C.Alpine shrub- and grasslands are shaped by extreme climatic conditions such as a long-lasting snow cover and a short vegetation period. Such ecosystems are expected to be highly sensitive to global environmental change. Prolonged growing seasons and shifts in temperature and precipitation are likely to affect plant phenology and growth. In a unique experiment, climatology and plant growth was monitored for almost a decade at 17 snow meteorological stations in different alpine regions along the Swiss Alps. Regression analyses revealed highly significant correlations between mean air temperature in May/June and snow melt out, onset of plant growth, and plant height. These correlations were used to project plant growth phenology for future climate conditions based on the gridded output of a set of regional climate models runs. Melt out and onset of growth were projected to occur on average 17 days earlier by the end of the century than in the control period from 1971–2000 under the future climate conditions of the low resolution climate model ensemble. Plant height and biomass production were expected to increase by 77% and 45%, respectively. The earlier melt out and onset of growth will probably cause a considerable shift towards higher growing plants and thus increased biomass. Our results represent the first quantitative and spatially explicit estimates of climate change impacts on future growing season length and the respective productivity of alpine plant communities in the Swiss Alps.
- ItemEstimating the near-surface permafrost-carbon feedback on global warming(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2012) Schneider von Deimling, T.; Meinshausen, M.; Levermann, A.; Huber, V.; Frieler, K.; Lawrence, D.M.; Brovkin, V.Thawing of permafrost and the associated release of carbon constitutes a positive feedback in the climate system, elevating the effect of anthropogenic GHG emissions on global-mean temperatures. Multiple factors have hindered the quantification of this feedback, which was not included in climate carbon-cycle models which participated in recent model intercomparisons (such as the Coupled Carbon Cycle Climate Model Intercomparison Project – C4MIP) . There are considerable uncertainties in the rate and extent of permafrost thaw, the hydrological and vegetation response to permafrost thaw, the decomposition timescales of freshly thawed organic material, the proportion of soil carbon that might be emitted as carbon dioxide via aerobic decomposition or as methane via anaerobic decomposition, and in the magnitude of the high latitude amplification of global warming that will drive permafrost degradation. Additionally, there are extensive and poorly characterized regional heterogeneities in soil properties, carbon content, and hydrology. Here, we couple a new permafrost module to a reduced complexity carbon-cycle climate model, which allows us to perform a large ensemble of simulations. The ensemble is designed to span the uncertainties listed above and thereby the results provide an estimate of the potential strength of the feedback from newly thawed permafrost carbon. For the high CO2 concentration scenario (RCP8.5), 33–114 GtC (giga tons of Carbon) are released by 2100 (68 % uncertainty range). This leads to an additional warming of 0.04–0.23 °C. Though projected 21st century permafrost carbon emissions are relatively modest, ongoing permafrost thaw and slow but steady soil carbon decomposition means that, by 2300, about half of the potentially vulnerable permafrost carbon stock in the upper 3 m of soil layer (600–1000 GtC) could be released as CO2, with an extra 1–4 % being released as methane. Our results also suggest that mitigation action in line with the lower scenario RCP3-PD could contain Arctic temperature increase sufficiently that thawing of the permafrost area is limited to 9–23 % and the permafrost-carbon induced temperature increase does not exceed 0.04–0.16 °C by 2300.
- ItemEvaluation of the shortwave cloud radiative effect over the ocean by use of ship and satellite observations(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2012) Hanschmann, T.; Deneke, H.; Roebeling, R.; Macke, A.In this study the shortwave cloud radiative effect (SWCRE) over ocean calculated by the ECHAM 5 climate model is evaluated for the cloud property input derived from ship based measurements and satellite based estimates and compared to ship based radiation measurements. The ship observations yield cloud fraction, liquid water path from a microwave radiometer, cloud bottom height as well as temperature and humidity profiles from radiosonde ascents. Level-2 products of the Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM~SAF) from the Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI) have been used to characterize clouds. Within a closure study six different experiments have been defined to find the optimal set of measurements to calculate downward shortwave radiation (DSR) and the SWCRE from the model, and their results have been evaluated under seven different synoptic situations. Four of these experiments are defined to investigate the advantage of including the satellite-based cloud droplet effective radius as additional cloud property. The modeled SWCRE based on satellite retrieved cloud properties has a comparable accuracy to the modeled SWCRE based on ship data. For several cases, an improvement through introducing the satellite-based estimate of effective radius as additional information to the ship based data was found. Due to their different measuring characteristics, however, each dataset shows best results for different atmospheric conditions.
- ItemMultichannel analysis of correlation length of SEVIRI images around ground-based cloud observatories to determine their representativeness(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2015) Slobodda, J.; Hünerbein, A.; Lindstrot, R.; Preusker, R.; Ebell, K.; Fischer, J.Images of measured radiance in different channels of the geostationary Meteosat-9 SEVIRI instrument are analysed with respect to the representativeness of the observations of eight cloud observatories in Europe (e.g. measurements from cloud radars or microwave radiometers). Cloudy situations are selected to get a time series for every pixel in a 300 km × 300 km area centred around each ground station. Then a cross correlation of each time series to the pixel nearest to the corresponding ground site is calculated. In the end a correlation length is calculated to define the representativeness. It is found that measurements in the visible and near infrared channels, which respond to cloud physical properties, are correlated in an area with a 1 to 4 km radius, while the thermal channels, that correspond to cloud top temperature, are correlated to a distance of about 20 km. This also points to a higher variability of the cloud microphysical properties inside a cloud than of the cloud top temperature. The correlation length even increases for the channels at 6.2, 7.3 and 9.7 μm. They respond to radiation from the upper atmospheric layers emitted by atmospheric gases and higher level clouds, which are more homogeneous than low-level clouds. Additionally, correlations at different distances, corresponding to the grid box sizes of forecast models, were compared. The results suggest the possibility of comparisons between instantaneous cloud observations from ground sites and regional forecast models and ground-based measurements. For larger distances typical for global models the correlations decrease, especially for short-wave measurements and corresponding cloud products. By comparing daily means, the correlation length of each station is increased to about 3 to 10 times the value of instantaneous measurements and also the comparability to models grows.
- ItemImportance of size representation and morphology in modelling optical properties of black carbon: comparison between laboratory measurements and model simulations(Katlenburg-Lindau : Copernicus, 2022) Romshoo, Baseerat; Pöhlker, Mira; Wiedensohler, Alfred; Pfeifer, Sascha; Saturno, Jorge; Nowak, Andreas; Ciupek, Krzysztof; Quincey, Paul; Vasilatou, Konstantina; Ess, Michaela N.; Gini, Maria; Eleftheriadis, Konstantinos; Robins, Chris; Gaie-Levrel, François; Müller, ThomasBlack carbon (BC) from incomplete combustion of biomass or fossil fuels is the strongest absorbing aerosol component in the atmosphere. Optical properties of BC are essential in climate models for quantification of their impact on radiative forcing. The global climate models, however, consider BC to be spherical particles, which causes uncertainties in their optical properties. Based on this, an increasing number of model-based studies provide databases and parameterization schemes for the optical properties of BC, using more realistic fractal aggregate morphologies. In this study, the reliability of the different modelling techniques of BC was investigated by comparing them to laboratory measurements. The modelling techniques were examined for bare BC particles in the first step and for BC particles with organic material in the second step. A total of six morphological representations of BC particles were compared, three each for spherical and fractal aggregate morphologies. In general, the aggregate representation performed well for modelling the particle light absorption coefficient σabs, single-scattering albedo SSA, and mass absorption cross-section MACBC for laboratory-generated BC particles with volume mean mobility diameters dp,V larger than 100nm. However, for modelling Ångström absorption exponent AAE, it was difficult to suggest a method due to size dependence, although the spherical assumption was in better agreement in some cases. The BC fractal aggregates are usually modelled using monodispersed particles, since their optical simulations are computationally expensive. In such studies, the modelled optical properties showed a 25% uncertainty in using the monodisperse size method. It is shown that using the polydisperse size distribution in combination with fractal aggregate morphology reduces the uncertainty in measured σabs to 10% for particles with dp,V between 60-160nm. Furthermore, the sensitivities of the BC optical properties to the various model input parameters such as the real and imaginary parts of the refractive index (mre and mim), the fractal dimension (Df), and the primary particle radius (app) of an aggregate were investigated. When the BC particle is small and rather fresh, the change in the Df had relatively little effect on the optical properties. There was, however, a significant relationship between app and the particle light scattering, which increased by a factor of up to 6 with increasing total particle size. The modelled optical properties of BC are well aligned with laboratory-measured values when the following assumptions are used in the fractal aggregate representation: mre between 1.6 and 2, mim between 0.50 and 1, Df from 1.7 to 1.9, and app between 10 and 14nm. Overall, this study provides experimental support for emphasizing the importance of an appropriate size representation (polydisperse size method) and an appropriate morphological representation for optical modelling and parameterization scheme development of BC.