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- ItemCompiling geophysical and geological information into a 3-D model of the glacially-affected island of Föhr(Munich : EGU, 2012) Burschil, T.; Scheer, W.; Kirsch, R.; Wiederhold, H.Within the scope of climatic change and associated sea level rise, coastal aquifers are endangered and are becoming more a focus of research to ensure the future water supply in coastal areas. For groundwater modelling a good understanding of the geological/hydrogeological situation and the aquifer behavior is necessary. In preparation of groundwater modelling and assessment of climate change impacts on coastal water resources, we setup a geological/hydrogeological model for the North Sea Island of Föhr. Data from different geophysical methods applied from the air, the surface and in boreholes contribute to the 3-D model, e.g. airborne electromagnetics (SkyTEM) for spatial mapping the resistivity of the entire island, seismic reflections for detailed cross-sections in the groundwater catchment area, and geophysical borehole logging for calibration of these measurements. An iterative and integrated evaluation of the results from the different geophysical methods contributes to reliable data as input for the 3-D model covering the whole island and not just the well fields. The complex subsurface structure of the island is revealed. The local waterworks use a freshwater body embedded in saline groundwater. Several glaciations reordered the youngest Tertiary and Quaternary sediments by glaciotectonic thrust faulting, as well as incision and refill of glacial valleys. Both subsurface structures have a strong impact on the distribution of freshwater-bearing aquifers. A digital geological 3-D model reproduces the hydrogeological structure of the island as a base for a groundwater model. In the course of the data interpretation, we deliver a basis for rock identification. We demonstrate that geophysical investigation provide petrophysical parameters and improve the understanding of the subsurface and the groundwater system. The main benefit of our work is that the successful combination of electromagnetic, seismic and borehole data reveals the complex geology of a glacially-affected island. A sound understanding of the subsurface structure and the compilation of a 3-D model is imperative and the basis for a groundwater flow model to predict climate change effects on future water resources.
- ItemClimate-driven or human-induced: Indicating severe water scarcity in the Moulouya river basin (Morocco)(Basel : MDPI AG, 2012) Tekken, V.; Kropp, J.P.Many agriculture-based economies are increasingly under stress from climate change and socio-economic pressures. The excessive exploitation of natural resources still represents the standard procedure to achieve socio-economic development. In the area of the Moulouya river basin, Morocco, natural water availability represents a key resource for all economic activities. Agriculture represents the most important sector, and frequently occurring water deficits are aggravated by climate change. On the basis of historical trends taken from CRU TS 2.1, this paper analyses the impact of climate change on the per capita water availability under inclusion of population trends. The Climatic Water Balance (CWB) shows a significant decrease for the winter period, causing adverse effects for the main agricultural season. Further, moisture losses due to increasing evapotranspiration rates indicate problems for the annual water budget and groundwater recharge. The per capita blue water availability falls below a minimum threshold of 500 m3 per year, denoting a high regional vulnerability to increasing water scarcity assuming a no-response scenario. Regional development focusing on the water-intense sectors of agriculture and tourism appears to be at risk. Institutional capacities and policies need to address the problem, and the prompt implementation of innovative water production and efficiency measures is recommended.
- ItemCan Tanzania’s adaptation measures prevent future maize yield decline? A simulation study from Singida region(Berlin ; Heidelberg ; New York : Springer, 2021) Volk, Johanna; Gornott, Christoph; Sieber, Stefan; Lana, Marcos AlbertoCereal crop production in sub-Saharan Africa has not achieved the much-needed increase in yields to foster economic development and food security. Maize yields in the region’s semi-arid agroecosystems are constrained by highly variable rainfall, which may be worsened by climate change. Thus, the Tanzanian government has prioritized agriculture as an adaptation sector in its intended nationally determined contribution, and crop management adjustments as a key investment area in its Agricultural Sector Development Programme. In this study, we investigated how future changes in maize yields under different climate scenarios can be countered by regional adjusted crop management and cultivar adaptation strategies. A crop model was used to simulate maize yields in the Singida region of Tanzania for the baseline period 1980–2012 and under three future climate projections for 2020–2060 and 2061–2099. Adaptation strategies to improve yields were full irrigation, deficit irrigation, mulch and nitrogen addition and another cultivar. According to our model results, increase in temperature is the main driver of future maize yield decline. Increased respiration and phenological development were associated with lower maize yields of 16% in 2020–2060 and 20% in 2061–2099 compared to the 1980–2012 baseline. Surprisingly, none of the management strategies significantly improved yields; however, a different maize variety that was tested as an alternative coping strategy performed better. This study suggests that investment in accessibility of improved varieties and investigation of maize traits that have the potential to perform well in a warmer future are better suited for sustaining maize production in the semi-arid region than adjustments in crop management.
- ItemImpacts of climate change on the hydrological regime of the danube river and its tributaries using an ensemble of climate scenarios(Basel : MDPI AG, 2015) Stagl, J.C.; Hattermann, F.F.
- ItemCombustion of available fossil fuel resources sufficient to eliminate the Antarctic Ice Sheet(Washington, DC [u.a.] : Assoc., 2015) Winkelmann, Ricarda; Levermann, Anders; Ridgwell, Andy; Caldeira, KenThe Antarctic Ice Sheet stores water equivalent to 58 m in global sea-level rise. We show in simulations using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model that burning the currently attainable fossil fuel resources is sufficient to eliminate the ice sheet. With cumulative fossil fuel emissions of 10,000 gigatonnes of carbon (GtC), Antarctica is projected to become almost ice-free with an average contribution to sea-level rise exceeding 3 m per century during the first millennium. Consistent with recent observations and simulations, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet becomes unstable with 600 to 800 GtC of additional carbon emissions. Beyond this additional carbon release, the destabilization of ice basins in both West and East Antarctica results in a threshold increase in global sea level. Unabated carbon emissions thus threaten the Antarctic Ice Sheet in its entirety with associated sea-level rise that far exceeds that of all other possible sources.
- ItemAwassi sheep keeping in the Arabic steppe in relation to nitrous oxide emission from soil(Amsterdam : Elsevier, 2013) Hijazi, Omar; Berg, Werner; Moussa, Samouil; Ammon, Christian; von Bobrutzki, Kristina; Brunsch, ReinerSheep husbandry is the main source of income for farmers in arid zones. Increasing sheep production on steppes may increase the greenhouse gas production. The objective of this study was to investigate the nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from the steppes for Awassi sheep keeping and feed cropping in arid zones such as Syria. The methodology developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was used to estimate N2O emissions. A survey was conducted on 64 farms in Syria to gather data for analysis. Precipitation and crop yield data from 2001 to 2009 were also used for calculation and modelling. Sheep-keeping systems, precipitation, year and the region have significant effects on N2O emissions (p<0.05). Emissions of N2O from lands with extensive, semi-intensive and intensive systems were 0.30 ± 0.093, 0.598± 0.113 and 2.243± 0.187 kg sheep1year1, respectively. Crop production was higher in regions with high precipitation levels, which helped to reduce N2O emissions. Using more residuals of wheat, cotton and soya as feed for sheep in the keeping systems evaluated may decrease the overuse of steppe regions and N2O emissions. Nitrous oxide emissions of N2O from sheep-keeping areas can be reduced by changing sheep-keeping systems and increasing the crop production in arid zones through artificial irrigation.
- ItemSignificant radiative impact of volcanic aerosol in the lowermost stratosphere(London : Nature Publishing Group, 2015) Andersson, Sandra M.; Martinsson, Bengt G.; Vernier, Jean-Paul; Friberg, Johan; Brenninkmeijer, Carl A.M.; Hermann, Markus; van Velthoven, Peter F.J.; Zahn, AndreasDespite their potential to slow global warming, until recently, the radiative forcing associated with volcanic aerosols in the lowermost stratosphere (LMS) had not been considered. Here we study volcanic aerosol changes in the stratosphere using lidar measurements from the NASA CALIPSO satellite and aircraft measurements from the IAGOS-CARIBIC observatory. Between 2008 and 2012 volcanism frequently affected the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere aerosol loadings, whereas the Southern Hemisphere generally had loadings close to background conditions. We show that half of the global stratospheric aerosol optical depth following the Kasatochi, Sarychev and Nabro eruptions is attributable to LMS aerosol. On average, 30% of the global stratospheric aerosol optical depth originated in the LMS during the period 2008–2011. On the basis of the two independent, high-resolution measurement methods, we show that the LMS makes an important contribution to the overall volcanic forcing.
- ItemAgriculture, livelihoods and climate change in the West African Sahel(Heidelberg : Springer Verlag, 2011) Sissoko, K.; van Keulen, H.; Verhagen, J.; Tekken, V.; Battaglini, A.The West African Sahel is a harsh environment stressed by a fast-growing population and increasing pressure on the scarce natural resources. Agriculture is the main source of livelihood of the majority of the people living in the area. Increases in temperature and/or modifications in rainfall quantities and distribution will substantially impact on the natural resource on which agriculture depends. The vulnerability of livelihoods based on agriculture is increased and most likely exacerbate and accelerate the current 'downward spiral' of underdevelopment, poverty and environmental degradation. Notably, droughts, a short rainy season and/or very low rainfall will be felt by current systems. To cope with the difficult climatic situation, farm households have developed a range of strategies including selling of animals and on-farm diversification or specialization. At regional level, early warning systems including an operational agro-meteorological information system already provide farmers with crucial information. Substantial political, institutional and financial efforts at national and international level are indispensable for the sustenance of millions of lives. In terms of development, priority needs to be given to adaptation and implementation of comprehensive programs on water management and irrigation, desertification control, development of alternative sources of energy and the promotion of sustainable agricultural practices by farmers.
- ItemStrong impact of wildfires on the abundance and aging of black carbon in the lowermost stratosphere(Washington, DC : NAS, 2018) Ditas, Jeannine; Ma, Nan; Zhang, Yuxuan; Assmann, Denise; Neumaier, Marco; Riede, Hella; Karu, Einar; Williams, Jonathan; Scharffe, Dieter; Wang, Qiaoqiao; Saturno, Jorge; Schwarz, Joshua P.; Katich, Joseph M.; McMeeking, Gavin R.; Zahn, Andreas; Hermann, Markus; Brenninkmeijer, Carl A. M.; Andreae, Meinrat O.; Pöschl, Ulrich; Su, Hang; Cheng, YafangWildfires inject large amounts of black carbon (BC) particles into the atmosphere, which can reach the lowermost stratosphere (LMS) and cause strong radiative forcing. During a 14-month period of observations on board a passenger aircraft flying between Europe and North America, we found frequent and widespread biomass burning (BB) plumes, influencing 16 of 160 flight hours in the LMS. The average BC mass concentrations in these plumes (∼140 ng·m−3, standard temperature and pressure) were over 20 times higher than the background concentration (∼6 ng·m−3) with more than 100-fold enhanced peak values (up to ∼720 ng·m−3). In the LMS, nearly all BC particles were covered with a thick coating. The average mass equivalent diameter of the BC particle cores was ∼120 nm with a mean coating thickness of ∼150 nm in the BB plume and ∼90 nm with a coating of ∼125 nm in the background. In a BB plume that was encountered twice, we also found a high diameter growth rate of ∼1 nm·h−1 due to the BC particle coatings. The observed high concentrations and thick coatings of BC particles demonstrate that wildfires can induce strong local heating in the LMS and may have a significant influence on the regional radiative forcing of climate.
- ItemAlternative forest management strategies to account for climate change-induced productivity and species suitability changes in Europe(Heidelberg : Springer Verlag, 2015) Schelhaas, M.-J.; Nabuurs, G.-J.; Hengeveld, G.; Reyer, C.; Hanewinkel, M.; Zimmermann, N.E.; Cullmann, D.