2011, Gabriel, A., Körnich, H., Lossow, S., Peters, D.H.W., Urban, J., Murtagh, D.

Stationary wave patterns in middle atmospheric ozone (O3) and water vapour (H2O) are an important factor in the atmospheric circulation, but there is a strong gap in diagnosing and understanding their configuration and origin. Based on Odin satellite data from 2001 to 2010 we investigate the stationary wave patterns in O3 and H2O as indicated by the seasonal long-term means of the zonally asymmetric components O3* Combining double low line O3-[O3] and H2O* Combining double low line H2O-[H2O] ([O3], [H2O]: zonal means). At mid-and polar latitudes we find a pronounced wave one pattern in both constituents. In the Northern Hemisphere, the wave patterns increase during autumn, maintain their strength during winter and decay during spring, with maximum amplitudes of about 10-20 % of the zonal mean values. During winter, the wave one in O3* shows a maximum over the North Pacific/Aleutians and a minimum over the North Atlantic/Northern Europe and a double-peak structure with enhanced amplitude in the lower and in the upper stratosphere. The wave one in H2O* extends from the lower stratosphere to the upper mesosphere with a westward shift in phase with increasing height including a jump in phase at upper stratosphere altitudes. In the Southern Hemisphere, similar wave patterns occur mainly during southern spring. By comparing the observed wave patterns in O 3* and H2O3* with a linear solution of a steady-state transport equation for a zonally asymmetric tracer component we find that these wave patterns are primarily due to zonally asymmetric transport by geostrophically balanced winds, which are derived from observed temperature profiles. In addition temperature-dependent photochemistry contributes substantially to the spatial structure of the wave pattern in O 3* . Further influences, e.g., zonal asymmetries in eddy mixing processes, are discussed.

2013, Bothe, O., Jungclaus, J.H., Zanchettin, D., Zorita, E.

Are simulations and reconstructions of past climate and its variability consistent with each other? We assess the consistency of simulations and reconstructions for the climate of the last millennium under the paradigm of a statistically indistinguishable ensemble. In this type of analysis, the null hypothesis is that reconstructions and simulations are statistically indistinguishable and, therefore, are exchangeable with each other. Ensemble consistency is assessed for Northern Hemisphere mean temperature, Central European mean temperature and for global temperature fields. Reconstructions available for these regions serve as verification data for a set of simulations of the climate of the last millennium performed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Consistency is generally limited to some sub-domains and some sub-periods. Only the ensemble simulated and reconstructed annual Central European mean temperatures for the second half of the last millennium demonstrates unambiguous consistency. Furthermore, we cannot exclude consistency of an ensemble of reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere temperature with the simulation ensemble mean. If we treat simulations and reconstructions as equitable hypotheses about past climate variability, the found general lack of their consistency weakens our confidence in inferences about past climate evolutions on the considered spatial and temporal scales. That is, our available estimates of past climate evolutions are on an equal footing but, as shown here, inconsistent with each other.