2011, Meinshausen, M., Raper, S.C.B., Wigley, T.M.L.

Intercomparisons of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) and carbon cycle models are important for galvanizing our current scientific knowledge to project future climate. Interpreting such intercomparisons faces major challenges, not least because different models have been forced with different sets of forcing agents. Here, we show how an emulation approach with MAGICC6 can address such problems. In a companion paper (Meinshausen et al., 2011a), we show how the lower complexity carbon cycle-climate model MAGICC6 can be calibrated to emulate, with considerable accuracy, globally aggregated characteristics of these more complex models. Building on that, we examine here the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project's Phase 3 results (CMIP3). If forcing agents missed by individual AOGCMs in CMIP3 are considered, this reduces ensemble average temperature change from pre-industrial times to 2100 under SRES A1B by 0.4 °C. Differences in the results from the 1980 to 1999 base period (as reported in IPCC AR4) to 2100 are negligible, however, although there are some differences in the trajectories over the 21st century. In a second part of this study, we consider the new RCP scenarios that are to be investigated under the forthcoming CMIP5 intercomparison for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. For the highest scenario, RCP8.5, relative to pre-industrial levels, we project a median warming of around 4.6 °C by 2100 and more than 7 °C by 2300. For the lowest RCP scenario, RCP3-PD, the corresponding warming is around 1.5 °C by 2100, decreasing to around 1.1 °C by 2300 based on our AOGCM and carbon cycle model emulations. Implied cumulative CO2 emissions over the 21st century for RCP8.5 and RCP3-PD are 1881 GtC (1697 to 2034 GtC, 80% uncertainty range) and 381 GtC (334 to 488 GtC), when prescribing CO2 concentrations and accounting for uncertainty in the carbon cycle. Lastly, we assess the reasons why a previous MAGICC version (4.2) used in IPCC AR4 gave roughly 10% larger warmings over the 21st century compared to the CMIP3 average. We find that forcing differences and the use of slightly too high climate sensitivities inferred from idealized high-forcing runs were the major reasons for this difference.

2013, Wang, Z.B., Hu, M., Sun, J.Y., Wu, Z.J., Yue, D.L., Shen, X.J., Zhang, Y.M., Pei, X.Y., Cheng, Y.F., Wiedensohler, A.

Long-term measurements of particle number size distributions were carried out both at an urban background site (Peking University, PKU) and a regional Global Atmospheric Watch station (Shangdianzi, SDZ) from March to November in 2008. In total, 52 new particle formation (NPF) events were observed simultaneously at both sites, indicating that this is a regional phenomenon in the North China Plain. On average, the mean condensation sink value before the nucleation events started was 0.025 s−1 in the urban environment, which was 1.6 times higher than that at regional site. However, higher particle formation and growth rates were observed at PKU (10.8 cm−3 s−1 and 5.2 nm h−1) compared with those at SDZ (4.9 cm−3 s−1 and 4.0 nm h−1). These results implied that precursors were much more abundant in the polluted urban environment. Different from the observations in cleaner environments, the background conditions of the observed particle homogeneous nucleation events in the North China Plain could be characterized as the co-existing of a stronger source of precursor gases and a higher condensational sink of pre-existing aerosol particles. Secondary aerosol formation following nucleation events results in an increase of particle mass concentration, particle light scattering coefficient, and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) number concentration, with consequences on visibility, radiative effects, and air quality. Typical regional NPF events with significant particle nucleation rates and subsequent particle growth over a sufficiently long time period at both sites were chosen to investigate the influence of NPF on the number concentration of "potential" CCN. As a result, the NPF and the subsequent condensable growth increased the CCN number concentration in the North China Plain by factors in the range from 5.6 to 8.7. Moreover, the potential contribution of anthropogenic emissions to the CCN number concentration was more than 50%, to which more attention should be drawn in regional and global climate modeling, especially in the polluted urban areas.

2011, Stock, M., Cheng, Y.F., Birmili, W., Massling, A., Wehner, B., Müller, T., Leinert, S., Kalivitis, N., Mihalopoulos, N., Wiedensohler, A.

This work examines the effect of direct radiative forcing of aerosols in the eastern Mediterranean troposphere as a function of air mass composition, particle size distribution and hygroscopicity, and relative humidity (RH). During intensive field measurements on the island of Crete, Greece, the hygroscopic properties of atmospheric particles were determined using a Hygroscopicity Tandem Differential Mobility Analyzer (H-TDMA) and a Hygroscopicity Differential Mobility Analyzer-Aerodynamic Particle Sizer (H-DMA-APS). Similar to former studies, the H-TDMA identified three hygroscopic sub-fractions of particles in the sub-μm range: a more hygroscopic group, a less hygroscopic group and a nearly hydrophobic particle group. The average hygroscopic particle growth factors at 90 % RH were a significant function of particle mobility diameter (Dp): 1.42 (± 0.05) at 30 nm compared to 1.63 (± 0.07) at 250 nm. The H-DMA-APS identified up to three hygroscopic sub-fractions at mobility diameters of 1.0 and 1.2 μm. The data recorded between 12 August and 20 October 2005 were classified into four distinct synoptic-scale air mass types distinguishing between different regions of origin (western Mediterranean vs. the Aegean Sea) as well as the degree of continental pollution (marine vs. continentally influenced). The hygroscopic properties of particles with diameter Dp≥150 nm showed the most pronounced dependency on air mass origin, with growth factors in marine air masses exceeding those in continentally influenced air masses. Particle size distributions and hygroscopic growth factors were used to calculate aerosol light scattering coefficients at ambient RH using a Mie model. A main result was the pronounced enhancement of particle scattering over the eastern Mediterranean due to hygroscopic growth, both in the marine and continentally influenced air masses. When RH reached its summer daytime values around 70–80 %, up to 50–70 % of the calculated visibility reduction was due to the hygroscopic growth of the particles by water compared to the effect of the dry particles alone. The estimated aerosol direct radiative forcings for both, marine and continentally influenced air masses were negative indicating a net cooling of the atmosphere due to the aerosol. The radiative forcing ΔFr was nevertheless governed by the total aerosol concentration most of the time: ΔFr was typically more negative for continentally influenced aerosols (ca. −4 W m−2) compared to rather clean marine aerosols (ca. −1.5 W m−2). When RH occasionally reached 90 % in marine air masses, ΔFr even reached values down to −7 W m−2. Our results emphasize, on the basis of explicit particle hygroscopicity measurements, the relevance of ambient RH for the radiative forcing of regional atmospheres.

2011, Meinshausen, M., Raper, S.C.B., Wigley, T.M.L.

Current scientific knowledge on the future response of the climate system to human-induced perturbations is comprehensively captured by various model intercomparison efforts. In the preparation of the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), intercomparisons were organized for atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) and carbon cycle models, named "CMIP3" and "C4MIP", respectively. Despite their tremendous value for the scientific community and policy makers alike, there are some difficulties in interpreting the results. For example, radiative forcings were not standardized across the various AOGCM integrations and carbon cycle runs, and, in some models, key forcings were omitted. Furthermore, the AOGCM analysis of plausible emissions pathways was restricted to only three SRES scenarios. This study attempts to address these issues. We present an updated version of MAGICC, the simple carbon cycle-climate model used in past IPCC Assessment Reports with enhanced representation of time-varying climate sensitivities, carbon cycle feedbacks, aerosol forcings and ocean heat uptake characteristics. This new version, MAGICC6, is successfully calibrated against the higher complexity AOGCMs and carbon cycle models. Parameterizations of MAGICC6 are provided. The mean of the emulations presented here using MAGICC6 deviates from the mean AOGCM responses by only 2.2% on average for the SRES scenarios. This enhanced emulation skill in comparison to previous calibrations is primarily due to: making a "like-with-like comparison" using AOGCM-specific subsets of forcings; employing a new calibration procedure; as well as the fact that the updated simple climate model can now successfully emulate some of the climate-state dependent effective climate sensitivities of AOGCMs. The diagnosed effective climate sensitivity at the time of CO2 doubling for the AOGCMs is on average 2.88 °C, about 0.33 °C cooler than the mean of the reported slab ocean climate sensitivities. In the companion paper (Part 2) of this study, we examine the combined climate system and carbon cycle emulations for the complete range of IPCC SRES emissions scenarios and the new RCP pathways.

2011, Reddington, C.L., Carslaw, K.S., Spracklen, D.V., Frontoso, M.G., Collins, L., Merikanto, J., Minikin, A., Hamburger, T., Coe, H., Kulmala, M., Aalto, P., Flentje, H., Plass-Dülmer, C., Birmili, W., Wiedensohler, A., Wehner, B., Tuch, T., Sonntag, A., O'Dowd, C.D., Jennings, S.G., Dupuy, R., Baltensperger, U., Weingartner, E., Hansson, H.-C., Tunved, P., Laj, P., Sellegri, K., Boulon, J., Putaud, J.-P., Gruening, C., Swietlicki, E., Roldin, P., Henzing, J.S., Moerman, M., Mihalopoulos, N., Kouvarakis, G., Ždímal, V., Zíková, N., Marinoni, A., Bonasoni, P., Duchi, R.

It is important to understand the relative contribution of primary and secondary particles to regional and global aerosol so that models can attribute aerosol radiative forcing to different sources. In large-scale models, there is considerable uncertainty associated with treatments of particle formation (nucleation) in the boundary layer (BL) and in the size distribution of emitted primary particles, leading to uncertainties in predicted cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations. Here we quantify how primary particle emissions and secondary particle formation influence size-resolved particle number concentrations in the BL using a global aerosol microphysics model and aircraft and ground site observations made during the May 2008 campaign of the European Integrated Project on Aerosol Cloud Climate Air Quality Interactions (EUCAARI). We tested four different parameterisations for BL nucleation and two assumptions for the emission size distribution of anthropogenic and wildfire carbonaceous particles. When we emit carbonaceous particles at small sizes (as recommended by the Aerosol Intercomparison project, AEROCOM), the spatial distributions of campaign-mean number concentrations of particles with diameter >50 nm (N50) and >100 nm (N100) were well captured by the model (R2≥0.8) and the normalised mean bias (NMB) was also small (−18% for N50 and −1% for N100). Emission of carbonaceous particles at larger sizes, which we consider to be more realistic for low spatial resolution global models, results in equally good correlation but larger bias (R2≥0.8, NMB = −52% and −29%), which could be partly but not entirely compensated by BL nucleation. Within the uncertainty of the observations and accounting for the uncertainty in the size of emitted primary particles, BL nucleation makes a statistically significant contribution to CCN-sized particles at less than a quarter of the ground sites. Our results show that a major source of uncertainty in CCN-sized particles in polluted European air is the emitted size of primary carbonaceous particles. New information is required not just from direct observations, but also to determine the "effective emission size" and composition of primary particles appropriate for different resolution models.

2012, Setyan, A., Zhang, Q., Merkel, M., Knighton, W.B., Sun, Y., Song, C., Shilling, J.E., Onasch, T.B., Herndon, S.C., Worsnop, D.R., Fast, J.D., Zaveri, R.A., Berg, L.K., Wiedensohler, A., Flowers, B.A., Dubey, M.K., Subramanian, R.

An Aerodyne high resolution time-of-flight aerosol mass spectrometer (HR-ToF-AMS) was deployed during the Carbonaceous Aerosols and Radiative Effects Study (CARES) that took place in northern California in June 2010. We present results obtained at Cool (denoted as the T1 site of the project) in the foothills of the Sierra Nevada Mountains, where intense biogenic emissions are periodically mixed with urban outflow transported by daytime southwesterly winds from the Sacramento metropolitan area. During this study, the average mass loading of submicrometer particles (PM1) was 3.0 μg m−3, dominated by organics (80%) and sulfate (9.9%). The organic aerosol (OA) had a nominal formula of C1H1.38N0.004OM0.44, thus an average organic mass-to-carbon (OM/OC) ratio of 1.70. Two distinct oxygenated OA factors were identified via Positive matrix factorization (PMF) of the high-resolution mass spectra of organics. The more oxidized MO-OOA (O/C = 0.54) was interpreted as a surrogate for secondary OA (SOA) influenced by biogenic emissions whereas the less oxidized LO-OOA (O/C = 0.42) was found to represent SOA formed in photochemically processed urban emissions. LO-OOA correlated strongly with ozone and MO-OOA correlated well with two 1st generation isoprene oxidation products (methacrolein and methyl vinyl ketone), indicating that both SOAs were relatively fresh. A hydrocarbon like OA (HOA) factor was also identified, representing primary emissions mainly due to local traffic. On average, SOA (= MO-OOA + LO-OOA) accounted for 91% of the total OA mass and 72% of the PM1 mass observed at Cool. Twenty three periods of urban plumes from T0 (Sacramento) to T1 (Cool) were identified using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem). The average PM1 mass loading was considerably higher in urban plumes than in air masses dominated by biogenic SOA. The change in OA mass relative to CO (ΔOA/ΔCO) varied in the range of 5-196 μg m−3 ppm−1, reflecting large variability in SOA production. The highest ΔOA/ΔCO was reached when air masses were dominated by anthropogenic emissions in the presence of a high concentration of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs). This ratio, which was 97 μg m−3 ppm−1 on average, was much higher than when urban plumes arrived in a low BVOC environment (~36 μg m−3 ppm−1) or during other periods dominated by biogenic SOA (35 μg m−3 ppm−1). These results demonstrate that SOA formation is enhanced when anthropogenic emissions interact with biogenic precursors.

2014, Dahlkötter, F., Gysel, M., Sauer, D., Minikin, A., Baumann, R., Seifert, P., Ansmann, A., Fromm, M., Voigt, C., Weinzierl, B.

During the CONCERT 2011 field experiment with the DLR research aircraft Falcon, an enhanced aerosol layer with particle linear depolarization ratios of 6–8% at 532 nm was observed at altitudes above 10 km over northeast Germany on 16 September 2011. Dispersion simulations with HYSPILT suggest that the elevated aerosol layer originated from the Pagami Creek forest fire in Minnesota, USA, which caused pyro-convective uplift of particles and gases. The 3–4 day-old smoke plume had high total refractory black carbon (rBC) mass concentrations of 0.03–0.35 μg m−3 at standard temperature and pressure (STP) with rBC mass equivalent diameter predominantly smaller than 130 nm. Assuming a core-shell particle structure, the BC cores exhibit very thick (median: 105–136 nm) BC-free coatings. A large fraction of the BC-containing particles disintegrated into a BC-free fragment and a BC fragment while passing through the laser beam of the Single Particle Soot Photometer (SP2). In this study, the disintegration is a result of very thick coatings around the BC cores. This is in contrast to a previous study in a forest-fire plume, where it was hypothesized to be a result of BC cores being attached to a BC-free particle. For the high-altitude forest-fire aerosol layer observed in this study, increased mass specific light-absorption cross sections of BC can be expected due to the very thick coatings around the BC cores, while this would not be the case for the attached-type morphology. We estimate the BC mass import from the Pagami Creek forest fire into the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS) region (best estimate: 25 Mg rBC). A comparison to black carbon emission rates from aviation underlines the importance of pyro-convection on the BC load in the UTLS region. Our study provides detailed information on the microphysics and the mixing state of BC in the forest-fire aerosol layer in the upper troposphere that can be used to better understand and investigate the radiative impact of such upper tropospheric aerosol layers.

2014, Nordmann, S., Cheng, Y.F., Carmichael, G.R., Yu, M., van der Gon, H.A.C.Denier, Zhang, Q., Saide, P.E., Pöschl, U., Su, H., Birmili, W., Wiedensohler, A.

Particles containing black carbon (BC), a strong absorbing substance, exert a rather uncertain direct and indirect radiative forcing in the atmosphere. To investigate the mass concentration and absorption properties of BC particles over central Europe, the model WRF-Chem was used at a resolution of 12 km in conjunction with a high-resolution BC emission inventory (EUCAARI 42-Pan-European Carbonaceous Aerosol Inventory; 1/8° × 1/16°). The model simulation was evaluated using measurements of equivalent soot carbon, absorption coefficients and particle number concentrations at seven sites within the German Ultrafine Aerosol Network, PM mass concentrations from the dense measurement network of the German Federal Environmental Agency at 392 monitoring stations, and aerosol optical depth from MODIS and AERONET. A distinct time period (25 March to 10 April 2009) was chosen, during which the clean marine air mass prevailed in the first week and afterwards the polluted continental air mass mainly from the southeast dominated with elevated daily average BC concentration of up to 4 μ g m−3. The simulated PM mass concentration, aerosol number concentration and optical depth were in good agreement with the observations, while the modelled BC mass concentrations were found to be a factor of 2 lower than the observations. Together with back trajectories, detailed model bias analyses suggested that the current BC emission in countries to the east and south of Germany might be underestimated by a factor of 5, at least for the simulation period. Running the model with upscaled BC emissions in these regions led to a smaller model bias and a better correlation between model and measurement. In contrast, the particle absorption coefficient was positively biased by about 20% even when the BC mass concentration was underestimated by around 50%. This indicates that the internal mixture treatment of BC in the WRF-Chem optical calculation is unrealistic in our case, which overamplifies the light absorption by BC-containing particles. By adjusting the modelled mass absorption cross-section towards the measured values, the simulation of particle light absorption of BC was improved as well. Finally, the positive direct radiative forcing of BC particles at the top of the atmosphere was estimated to be in the range of 0 to +4 W m−2 over Germany for the model run with improved BC mass concentration and adjusted BC light absorption cross-section. This adjustment lowered the positive forcing of BC by up to 70%, compared with the internal mixing treatment of BC in the model simulation.

2015, Zhang, Y., Mahowald, N., Scanza, R.A., Journet, E., Desboeufs, K., Albani, S., Kok, J.F., Zhuang, G., Chen, Y., Cohen, D.D., Paytan, A., Patey, M.D., Achterberg, E.P., Engelbrecht, J.P., Fomba, K.W.

Trace element deposition from desert dust has important impacts on ocean primary productivity, the quantification of which could be useful in determining the magnitude and sign of the biogeochemical feedback on radiative forcing. However, the impact of elemental deposition to remote ocean regions is not well understood and is not currently included in global climate models. In this study, emission inventories for eight elements primarily of soil origin, Mg, P, Ca, Mn, Fe, K, Al, and Si are determined based on a global mineral data set and a soil data set. The resulting elemental fractions are used to drive the desert dust model in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) in order to simulate the elemental concentrations of atmospheric dust. Spatial variability of mineral dust elemental fractions is evident on a global scale, particularly for Ca. Simulations of global variations in the Ca / Al ratio, which typically range from around 0.1 to 5.0 in soils, are consistent with observations, suggesting that this ratio is a good signature for dust source regions. The simulated variable fractions of chemical elements are sufficiently different; estimates of deposition should include elemental variations, especially for Ca, Al and Fe. The model results have been evaluated with observations of elemental aerosol concentrations from desert regions and dust events in non-dust regions, providing insights into uncertainties in the modeling approach. The ratios between modeled and observed elemental fractions range from 0.7 to 1.6, except for Mg and Mn (3.4 and 3.5, respectively). Using the soil database improves the correspondence of the spatial heterogeneity in the modeling of several elements (Ca, Al and Fe) compared to observations. Total and soluble dust element fluxes to different ocean basins and ice sheet regions have been estimated, based on the model results. The annual inputs of soluble Mg, P, Ca, Mn, Fe and K associated with dust using the mineral data set are 0.30 Tg, 16.89 Gg, 1.32 Tg, 22.84 Gg, 0.068 Tg, and 0.15 Tg to global oceans and ice sheets.

2014, Ma, N., Birmili, W., Müller, T., Tuch, T., Cheng, Y.F., Xu, W.Y., Zhao, C.S., Wiedensohler, A.

This work analyses optical properties of the dry tropospheric aerosol measured at the regional Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) observation site Melpitz in East Germany. For a continuous observation period between 2007 and 2010, we provide representative values of the dry-state scattering coefficient, hemispheric backscattering coefficient, absorption coefficient, single scattering albedo, and scattering Ångström exponent. Besides the direct measurement, the aerosol scattering coefficient was alternatively computed from experimental particle number size distributions using a Mie model. Within pre-defined limits, a closure could be achieved with the direct measurement. The achievement of closure implies that such calculations can be used as a high-level quality control measure for data sets involving multiple instrumentation. All dry-state optical properties show pronounced annual and diurnal variations, which are attributed to the corresponding variations in the regional emission fluxes, the intensity of secondary particle formation, and the mixing layer height. Air mass classification shows that atmospheric stability is a major factor influencing the dry aerosol properties at the GAW station. In the cold season, temperature inversions limit the volume available for atmospheric mixing, so that the dry-state aerosol optical properties near the ground proved quite sensitive to the geographical origin of the air mass. In the warm season, when the atmosphere is usually well-mixed during daytime, considerably less variability was observed for the optical properties between different air masses. This work provides, on the basis of quality-checked in situ measurements, a first step towards a climatological assessment of direct aerosol radiative forcing in the region under study.