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- ItemRegional projections of temperature and precipitation changes: Robustness and uncertainty aspects(Stuttgart : Gebrueder Borntraeger Verlagsbuchhandlung, 2017) Piniewski, M.; Mezghani, A.; Szczésniak, M.; Kundzewicz, Z.W.This study presents the analysis of bias-corrected projections of changes in temperature and precipitation in the Vistula and Odra basins, covering approximately 90% of the Polish territory and small parts of neighbouring countries in Central and Eastern Europe. The ensemble of climate projections consists of nine regional climate model simulations from the EURO-CORDEX ensemble for two future periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100, assuming two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. The robustness is measured by the ensemble models' agreement on significant changes.We found a robust increase in the annual mean of daily minimum and maximum temperature, by 1-1.4 °C in the near future and by 1.9-3.8 °C in the far future (areal-means of the ensemble mean values). Higher increases are consistently associated with minimum temperature and the gradient of change goes from SWto NE regions. Seasonal projections of both temperature variables reflect lower robustness and suggest a higher future increase in winter temperatures than in other seasons, notably in the far future under RCP 8.5 (by more than 1 °C). However, changes in annual means of precipitation are uncertain and not robust in any of the analysed cases, even though the climate models agree well on the increase. This increase is intensified with rising global temperatures and varies from 5.5% in the near future under RCP 4.5 to 15.2%in the far future under RCP 8.5. Spatial variability is substantial, although quite variable between individual climate model simulations. Although seasonal means of precipitation are projected to considerably increase in all four combinations of RCPs and projection horizons for winter and spring, the high model spread reduces considerably the robustness, especially for the far future. In contrast, the ensemble members agree well that overall, the summer and autumn (with exception of the far future under RCP 8.5) precipitation will not undergo statistically significant changes.
- ItemImplementation of aerosol-cloud interactions in the regional atmosphere-aerosol model COSMO-Muscat(5.0) and evaluation using satellite data(Katlenburg-Lindau : Copernicus, 2017) Dipu, Sudhakar; Quaas, Johannes; Wolke, Ralf; Stoll, Jens; Mühlbauer, Andreas; Sourdeval, Odran; Salzmann, Marc; Heinold, Bernd; Tegen, InaThe regional atmospheric model Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (COSMO) coupled to the Multi-Scale Chemistry Aerosol Transport model (Muscat) is extended in this work to represent aerosol-cloud interactions. Previously, only one-way interactions (scavenging of aerosol and in-cloud chemistry) and aerosol-radiation interactions were included in this model. The new version allows for a microphysical aerosol effect on clouds. For this, we use the optional two-moment cloud microphysical scheme in COSMO and the online-computed aerosol information for cloud condensation nuclei concentrations (Cccn), replacing the constant Cccn profile. In the radiation scheme, we have implemented a droplet-size-dependent cloud optical depth, allowing now for aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions. To evaluate the models with satellite data, the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project Observation Simulator Package (COSP) has been implemented. A case study has been carried out to understand the effects of the modifications, where the modified modeling system is applied over the European domain with a horizontal resolution of 0.25°g × g0.25°. To reduce the complexity in aerosol-cloud interactions, only warm-phase clouds are considered. We found that the online-coupled aerosol introduces significant changes for some cloud microphysical properties. The cloud effective radius shows an increase of 9.5g%, and the cloud droplet number concentration is reduced by 21.5g%.
- ItemClimate change impacts on hydrology and water resources(Stuttgart : Gebrueder Borntraeger Verlagsbuchhandlung, 2015) Hattermann, F.F.; Huang, S.; Koch, H.
- ItemEnsemble simulations for the RCP8.5-Scenario(Stuttgart : Gebrueder Borntraeger Verlagsbuchhandlung, 2015) Gerstengarbe, F.-W.; Hoffmann, P.; Österle, H.; Werner, P.C.
- ItemSize distribution and optical properties of mineral dust aerosols transported in the western Mediterranean(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2016) Denjean, C.; Cassola, F.; Mazzino, A.; Triquet, S.; Chevaillier, S.; Grand, N.; Bourrianne, T.; Momboisse, G.; Sellegri, K.; Schwarzenbock, A.; Freney, E.; Mallet, M.; Formenti, P.This study presents in situ aircraft measurements of Saharan mineral dust transported over the western Mediterranean basin in June–July 2013 during the ChArMEx/ADRIMED (the Chemistry-Aerosol Mediterranean Experiment/Aerosol Direct Radiative Impact on the regional climate in the MEDiterranean region) airborne campaign. Dust events differing in terms of source region (Algeria, Tunisia and Morocco), time of transport (1–5 days) and height of transport were sampled. Mineral dust were transported above the marine boundary layer, which conversely was dominated by pollution and marine aerosols. The dust vertical structure was extremely variable and characterized by either a single layer or a more complex and stratified structure with layers originating from different source regions. Mixing of mineral dust with pollution particles was observed depending on the height of transport of the dust layers. Dust layers carried a higher concentration of pollution particles below 3 km above sea level (a.s.l.) than above 3 km a.s.l., resulting in a scattering Ångström exponent up to 2.2 below 3 km a.s.l. However, the optical properties of the dust plumes remained practically unchanged with respect to values previously measured over source regions, regardless of the altitude. Moderate absorption of light by the dust plumes was observed with values of aerosol single scattering albedo at 530 nm ranging from 0.90 to 1.00. Concurrent calculations from the aerosol chemical composition revealed a negligible contribution of pollution particles to the absorption properties of the dust plumes that was due to a low contribution of refractory black carbon in regards to the fraction of dust and sulfate particles. This suggests that, even in the presence of moderate pollution, likely a persistent feature in the Mediterranean, the optical properties of the dust plumes could be assumed similar to those of native dust in radiative transfer simulations, modelling studies and satellite retrievals over the Mediterranean. Measurements also showed that the coarse mode of mineral dust was conserved even after 5 days of transport in the Mediterranean, which contrasts with the gravitational depletion of large particles observed during the transport of dust plumes over the Atlantic. Simulations with the WRF mesoscale meteorological model highlighted a strong vertical turbulence within the dust layers that could prevent deposition of large particles during their atmospheric transport. This has important implications for the dust radiative effects due to surface dimming, atmospheric heating and cloud formation. The results presented here add to the observational data set necessary for evaluating the role of mineral dust on the regional climate and rainfall patterns in the western Mediterranean basin and understanding their atmospheric transport at global scale.
- ItemChanges of temperature-related agroclimatic indices in Poland(Heidelberg : Springer Verlag, 2016) Graczyk, D.; Kundzewicz, Z.W.
- ItemComparison of water flows in four European lagoon catchments under a set of future climate scenarios(Basel : MDPI AG, 2015) Hesse, C.; Stefanova, A.; Krysanova, V.
- ItemMultivariate non-parametric Euclidean distance model for hourly disaggregation of daily climate data(Wien [u.a.] : Springer, 2021) Görner, Christina; Franke, Johannes; Kronenberg, Rico; Hellmuth, Olaf; Bernhofer, ChristianThe algorithm for and results of a newly developed multivariate non-parametric model, the Euclidean distance model (EDM), for the hourly disaggregation of daily climate data are presented here. The EDM is a resampling method based on the assumption that the day to be disaggregated has already occurred once in the past. The Euclidean distance (ED) serves as a measure of similarity to select the most similar day from historical records. EDM is designed to disaggregate daily means/sums of several climate elements at once, here temperature (T), precipitation (P), sunshine duration (SD), relative humidity (rH), and wind speed (WS), while conserving physical consistency over all disaggregated elements. Since weather conditions and hence the diurnal cycles of climate elements depend on the weather pattern, a selection approach including objective weather patterns (OWP) was developed. The OWP serve as an additional criterion to filter the most similar day. For a case study, EDM was applied to the daily climate data of the stations Dresden and Fichtelberg (Saxony, Germany). The EDM results agree well with the observed data, maintaining their statistics. Hourly results fit better for climate elements with homogenous diurnal cycles, e.g., T with very high correlations of up to 0.99. In contrast, the hourly results of the SD and the WS provide correlations up to 0.79. EDM tends to overestimate heavy precipitation rates, e.g., by up to 15% for Dresden and 26% for Fichtelberg, potentially due to, e.g., the smaller data pool for such events, and the equal-weighted impact of P in the ED calculation. The OWPs lead to somewhat improved results for all climate elements in terms of similar climate conditions of the basic stations. Finally, the performance of EDM is compared with the disaggregation tool MELODIST (Förster et al. 2015). Both tools deliver comparable and well corresponding results. All analyses of the generated hourly data show that EDM is a very robust and flexible model that can be applied to any climate station. Since EDM can disaggregate daily data of climate projections, future research should address whether the model is capable to respect and (re)produce future climate trends. Further, possible improvements by including the flow direction and future OWPs should be investigated, also with regard to reduce the overestimation of heavy rainfall rates.
- ItemSEMIC: An efficient surface energy and mass balance model applied to the Greenland ice sheet(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2017) Krapp, Mario; Robinson, Alexander; Ganopolski, AndreyWe present SEMIC, a Surface Energy and Mass balance model of Intermediate Complexity for snow- and ice-covered surfaces such as the Greenland ice sheet. SEMIC is fast enough for glacial cycle applications, making it a suitable replacement for simpler methods such as the positive degree day (PDD) method often used in ice sheet modelling. Our model explicitly calculates the main processes involved in the surface energy and mass balance, while maintaining a simple interface and requiring minimal data input to drive it. In this novel approach, we parameterise diurnal temperature variations in order to more realistically capture the daily thaw–freeze cycles that characterise the ice sheet mass balance. We show how to derive optimal model parameters for SEMIC specifically to reproduce surface characteristics and day-to-day variations similar to the regional climate model MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional, version 2) and its incorporated multilayer snowpack model SISVAT (Soil Ice Snow Vegetation Atmosphere Transfer). A validation test shows that SEMIC simulates future changes in surface temperature and surface mass balance in good agreement with the more sophisticated multilayer snowpack model SISVAT included in MAR. With this paper, we present a physically based surface model to the ice sheet modelling community that is general enough to be used with in situ observations, climate model, or reanalysis data, and that is at the same time computationally fast enough for long-term integrations, such as glacial cycles or future climate change scenarios.