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- ItemDynamical phenomena in complex networks: fundamentals and applications(Berlin ; Heidelberg : Springer, 2021) Yanchuk, Serhiy; Roque, Antonio C.; Macau, Elbert E. N.; Kurths, JürgenThis special issue presents a series of 33 contributions in the area of dynamical networks and their applications. Part of the contributions is devoted to theoretical and methodological aspects of dynamical networks, such as collective dynamics of excitable systems, spreading processes, coarsening, synchronization, delayed interactions, and others. A particular focus is placed on applications to neuroscience and Earth science, especially functional climate networks. Among the highlights, various methods for dealing with noise and stochastic processes in neuroscience are presented. A method for constructing weighted networks with arbitrary topologies from a single dynamical node with delayed feedback is introduced. Also, a generalization of the concept of geodesic distances, a path-integral formulation of network-based measures is developed, which provides fundamental insights into the dynamics of disease transmission. The contributions from the Earth science application field substantiate predictive power of climate networks to study challenging Earth processes and phenomena.
- ItemPredicting the data structure prior to extreme events from passive observables using echo state network(Lausanne : Frontiers Media, 2022) Banerjee, Abhirup; Mishra, Arindam; Dana, Syamal K.; Hens, Chittaranjan; Kapitaniak, Tomasz; Kurths, Jürgen; Marwan, NorbertExtreme events are defined as events that largely deviate from the nominal state of the system as observed in a time series. Due to the rarity and uncertainty of their occurrence, predicting extreme events has been challenging. In real life, some variables (passive variables) often encode significant information about the occurrence of extreme events manifested in another variable (active variable). For example, observables such as temperature, pressure, etc., act as passive variables in case of extreme precipitation events. These passive variables do not show any large excursion from the nominal condition yet carry the fingerprint of the extreme events. In this study, we propose a reservoir computation-based framework that can predict the preceding structure or pattern in the time evolution of the active variable that leads to an extreme event using information from the passive variable. An appropriate threshold height of events is a prerequisite for detecting extreme events and improving the skill of their prediction. We demonstrate that the magnitude of extreme events and the appearance of a coherent pattern before the arrival of the extreme event in a time series affect the prediction skill. Quantitatively, we confirm this using a metric describing the mean phase difference between the input time signals, which decreases when the magnitude of the extreme event is relatively higher, thereby increasing the predictability skill.
- ItemMultiscale Spatiotemporal Analysis of Extreme Events in the Gomati River Basin, India(Basel : MDPI, 2021) Kalyan, AVS; Ghose, Dillip Kumar; Thalagapu, Rahul; Guntu, Ravi Kumar; Agarwal, Ankit; Kurths, Jürgen; Rathinasamy, MaheswaranAccelerating climate change is causing considerable changes in extreme events, leading to immense socioeconomic loss of life and property. In this study, we investigate the characteristics of extreme climate events at a regional scale to ‐understand these events’ propagation in the near fu-ture. We have considered sixteen extreme climate indices defined by the World Meteorological Or-ganization’s Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices from a long‐term dataset (1951– 2018) of 53 locations in Gomati River Basin, North India. We computed the present and future spatial variation of theses indices using the Sen’s slope estimator and Hurst exponent analysis. The periodicities and non‐stationary features were estimated using the continuous wavelet transform. Bivariate copulas were fitted to estimate the joint probabilities and return periods for certain com-binations of indices. The study results show different variation in the patterns of the extreme climate indices: D95P, R95TOT, RX5D, and RX showed negative trends for all stations over the basin. The number of dry days (DD) showed positive trends over the basin at 36 stations out of those 17 stations are statistically significant. A sustainable decreasing trend is observed for D95P at all stations, indi-cating a reduction in precipitation in the future. DD exhibits a sustainable decreasing trend at almost all the stations over the basin barring a few exceptions highlight that the basin is turning drier. The wavelet power spectrum for D95P showed significant power distributed across the 2–16‐year bands, and the two‐year period was dominant in the global power spectrum around 1970–1990. One interest-ing finding is that a dominant two‐year period in D95P has changed to the four years after 1984 and remains in the past two decades. The joint return period’s resulting values are more significant than values resulting from univariate analysis (R95TOT with 44% and RTWD of 1450 mm). The difference in values highlights that ignoring the mutual dependence can lead to an underestimation of extremes. © 2021 by the author. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
- ItemHow Price-Based Frequency Regulation Impacts Stability in Power Grids: A Complex Network Perspective(London : Hindawi, 2020) Ji, Peng; Zhu, Lipeng; Lu, Chao; Lin, Wei; Kurths, JürgenWith the deregulation of modern power grids, electricity markets are playing a more and more important role in power grid operation and control. However, it is still questionable how the real-time electricity price-based operation affects power grid stability. From a complex network perspective, here we investigate the dynamical interactions between price-based frequency regulations and physical networks, which results in an interesting finding that a local minimum of network stability occurs when the response strength of generators/consumers to the varying price increases. A case study of the real world-based China Southern Power Grid demonstrates the finding and exhibits a feasible approach to network stability enhancement in smart grids. This also provides guidance for potential upgrade and expansion of the current power grids in a cleaner and safer way. © 2020 Peng Ji et al.
- ItemNeural partial differential equations for chaotic systems([London] : IOP, 2021) Gelbrecht, Maximilian; Boers, Niklas; Kurths, JürgenWhen predicting complex systems one typically relies on differential equation which can often be incomplete, missing unknown influences or higher order effects. By augmenting the equations with artificial neural networks we can compensate these deficiencies. We show that this can be used to predict paradigmatic, high-dimensional chaotic partial differential equations even when only short and incomplete datasets are available. The forecast horizon for these high dimensional systems is about an order of magnitude larger than the length of the training data.
- ItemInfluence of Autapses on Synchronization in Neural Networks With Chemical Synapses(Lausanne : Frontiers Media, 2020) Protachevicz, Paulo R.; Iarosz, Kelly C.; Caldas, Iberê L.; Antonopoulos, Chris G.; Batista, Antonio M.; Kurths, JürgenA great deal of research has been devoted on the investigation of neural dynamics in various network topologies. However, only a few studies have focused on the influence of autapses, synapses from a neuron onto itself via closed loops, on neural synchronization. Here, we build a random network with adaptive exponential integrate-and-fire neurons coupled with chemical synapses, equipped with autapses, to study the effect of the latter on synchronous behavior. We consider time delay in the conductance of the pre-synaptic neuron for excitatory and inhibitory connections. Interestingly, in neural networks consisting of both excitatory and inhibitory neurons, we uncover that synchronous behavior depends on their synapse type. Our results provide evidence on the synchronous and desynchronous activities that emerge in random neural networks with chemical, inhibitory and excitatory synapses where neurons are equipped with autapses. © Copyright © 2020 Protachevicz, Iarosz, Caldas, Antonopoulos, Batista and Kurths.
- ItemInterconnection between the Indian and the East Asian summer monsoon: Spatial synchronization patterns of extreme rainfall events(Chichester [u.a.] : Wiley, 2022) Gupta, Shraddha; Su, Zhen; Boers, Niklas; Kurths, Jürgen; Marwan, Norbert; Pappenberger, FlorianA deeper understanding of the intricate relationship between the two components of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM)—the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM)—is crucial to improve the subseasonal forecasting of extreme precipitation events. Using an innovative complex network-based approach, we identify two dominant synchronization pathways between ISM and EASM—a southern mode between the Arabian Sea and southeastern China occurring in June, and a northern mode between the core ISM zone and northern China which peaks in July—and their associated large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. Furthermore, we discover that certain phases of the Madden–Julian oscillation and the lower frequency mode of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) seem to favour the overall synchronization of extreme rainfall events between ISM and EASM while the higher-frequency mode of the BSISO is likely to support the shifting between the modes of ISM–EASM connection.
- ItemEvolving climate network perspectives on global surface air temperature effects of ENSO and strong volcanic eruptions(Berlin ; Heidelberg : Springer, 2021) Kittel, Tim; Ciemer, Catrin; Lotfi, Nastaran; Peron, Thomas; Rodrigues, Francisco; Kurths, Jürgen; Donner, Reik V.Episodically occurring internal (climatic) and external (non-climatic) disruptions of normal climate variability are known to both affect spatio-temporal patterns of global surface air temperatures (SAT) at time-scales between multiple weeks and several years. The magnitude and spatial manifestation of the corresponding effects depend strongly on the specific type of perturbation and may range from weak spatially coherent yet regionally confined trends to a global reorganization of co-variability due to the excitation or inhibition of certain large-scale teleconnectivity patterns. Here, we employ functional climate network analysis to distinguish qualitatively the global climate responses to different phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) from those to the three largest volcanic eruptions since the mid-20th century as the two most prominent types of recurrent climate disruptions. Our results confirm that strong ENSO episodes can cause a temporary breakdown of the normal hierarchical organization of the global SAT field, which is characterized by the simultaneous emergence of consistent regional temperature trends and strong teleconnections. By contrast, the most recent strong volcanic eruptions exhibited primarily regional effects rather than triggering additional long-range teleconnections that would not have been present otherwise. By relying on several complementary network characteristics, our results contribute to a better understanding of climate network properties by differentiating between climate variability reorganization mechanisms associated with internal variability versus such triggered by non-climatic abrupt and localized perturbations.
- ItemDynamical network size estimation from local observations([London] : IOP, 2020) Tang, Xiuchuan; Huo, Wei; Yuan, Ye; Li, Xiuting; Shi, Ling; Kurths, JürgenHere we present a method to estimate the total number of nodes of a network using locally observed response dynamics. The algorithm has the following advantages: (a) it is data-driven. Therefore it does not require any prior knowledge about the model; (b) it does not need to collect measurements from multiple stimulus; and (c) it is distributed as it uses local information only, without any prior information about the global network. Even if only a single node is measured, the exact network size can be correctly estimated using a single trajectory. The proposed algorithm has been applied to both linear and nonlinear networks in simulation, illustrating the applicability to real-world physical networks. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd on behalf of the Institute of Physics and Deutsche Physikalische Gesellschaft.
- ItemInfluence of Delayed Conductance on Neuronal Synchronization(Lausanne : Frontiers Media, 2020) Protachevicz, Paulo R.; Borges, Fernando S.; Iarosz, Kelly C.; Baptista, Murilo S.; Lameu, Ewandson L.; Hansen, Matheus; Caldas, Iberê L.; Szezech Jr., José D.; Batista, Antonio M.; Kurths, JürgenIn the brain, the excitation-inhibition balance prevents abnormal synchronous behavior. However, known synaptic conductance intensity can be insufficient to account for the undesired synchronization. Due to this fact, we consider time delay in excitatory and inhibitory conductances and study its effect on the neuronal synchronization. In this work, we build a neuronal network composed of adaptive integrate-and-fire neurons coupled by means of delayed conductances. We observe that the time delay in the excitatory and inhibitory conductivities can alter both the state of the collective behavior (synchronous or desynchronous) and its type (spike or burst). For the weak coupling regime, we find that synchronization appears associated with neurons behaving with extremes highest and lowest mean firing frequency, in contrast to when desynchronization is present when neurons do not exhibit extreme values for the firing frequency. Synchronization can also be characterized by neurons presenting either the highest or the lowest levels in the mean synaptic current. For the strong coupling, synchronous burst activities can occur for delays in the inhibitory conductivity. For approximately equal-length delays in the excitatory and inhibitory conductances, desynchronous spikes activities are identified for both weak and strong coupling regimes. Therefore, our results show that not only the conductance intensity, but also short delays in the inhibitory conductance are relevant to avoid abnormal neuronal synchronization. © Copyright © 2020 Protachevicz, Borges, Iarosz, Baptista, Lameu, Hansen, Caldas, Szezech, Batista and Kurths.