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- ItemGlobal, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study(Amsterdam : Elsevier, 2021) Zhao, Qi; Guo, Yuming; Ye, Tingting; Gasparrini, Antonio; Tong, Shilu; Overcenco, Ala; Urban, Aleš; Schneider, Alexandra; Entezari, Alireza; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Zanobetti, Antonella; Analitis, Antonis; Zeka, Ariana; Tobias, Aurelio; Nunes, Baltazar; Alahmad, Barrak; Armstrong, Ben; Forsberg, Bertil; Pan, Shih-Chun; Íñiguez, Carmen; Ameling, Caroline; De la Cruz Valencia, César; Åström, Christofer; Houthuijs, Danny; Dung, Do Van; Royé, Dominic; Indermitte, Ene; Lavigne, Eric; Mayvaneh, Fatemeh; Acquaotta, Fiorella; de'Donato, Francesca; Di Ruscio, Francesco; Sera, Francesco; Carrasco-Escobar, Gabriel; Kan, Haidong; Orru, Hans; Kim, Ho; Holobaca, Iulian-Horia; Kyselý, Jan; Madureira, Joana; Schwartz, Joel; Jaakkola, Jouni J. K.; Katsouyanni, Klea; Hurtado Diaz, Magali; Ragettli, Martina S.; Hashizume, Masahiro; Pascal, Mathilde; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho, Micheline; Valdés Ortega, Nicolás; Ryti, Niilo; Scovronick, Noah; Michelozzi, Paola; Matus Correa, Patricia; Goodman, Patrick; Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario; Abrutzky, Rosana; Osorio, Samuel; Rao, Shilpa; Fratianni, Simona; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Colistro, Valentina; Huber, Veronika; Lee, Whanhee; Seposo, Xerxes; Honda, Yasushi; Guo, Yue Leon; Bell, Michelle L.; Li, ShanshanBackground: Exposure to cold or hot temperatures is associated with premature deaths. We aimed to evaluate the global, regional, and national mortality burden associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures. Methods: In this modelling study, we collected time-series data on mortality and ambient temperatures from 750 locations in 43 countries and five meta-predictors at a grid size of 0·5° × 0·5° across the globe. A three-stage analysis strategy was used. First, the temperature–mortality association was fitted for each location by use of a time-series regression. Second, a multivariate meta-regression model was built between location-specific estimates and meta-predictors. Finally, the grid-specific temperature–mortality association between 2000 and 2019 was predicted by use of the fitted meta-regression and the grid-specific meta-predictors. Excess deaths due to non-optimal temperatures, the ratio between annual excess deaths and all deaths of a year (the excess death ratio), and the death rate per 100 000 residents were then calculated for each grid across the world. Grids were divided according to regional groupings of the UN Statistics Division. Findings: Globally, 5 083 173 deaths (95% empirical CI [eCI] 4 087 967–5 965 520) were associated with non-optimal temperatures per year, accounting for 9·43% (95% eCI 7·58–11·07) of all deaths (8·52% [6·19–10·47] were cold-related and 0·91% [0·56–1·36] were heat-related). There were 74 temperature-related excess deaths per 100 000 residents (95% eCI 60–87). The mortality burden varied geographically. Of all excess deaths, 2 617 322 (51·49%) occurred in Asia. Eastern Europe had the highest heat-related excess death rate and Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest cold-related excess death rate. From 2000–03 to 2016–19, the global cold-related excess death ratio changed by −0·51 percentage points (95% eCI −0·61 to −0·42) and the global heat-related excess death ratio increased by 0·21 percentage points (0·13–0·31), leading to a net reduction in the overall ratio. The largest decline in overall excess death ratio occurred in South-eastern Asia, whereas excess death ratio fluctuated in Southern Asia and Europe. Interpretation: Non-optimal temperatures are associated with a substantial mortality burden, which varies spatiotemporally. Our findings will benefit international, national, and local communities in developing preparedness and prevention strategies to reduce weather-related impacts immediately and under climate change scenarios. Funding: Australian Research Council and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council. © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
- ItemResearch data management in agricultural sciences in Germany: We are not yet where we want to be(San Francisco, California, US : PLOS, 2022) Senft, Matthias; Stahl, Ulrike; Svoboda, NikolaiTo meet the future challenges and foster integrated and holistic research approaches in agricultural sciences, new and sustainable methods in research data management (RDM) are needed. The involvement of scientific users is a critical success factor for their development. We conducted an online survey in 2020 among different user groups in agricultural sciences about their RDM practices and needs. In total, the questionnaire contained 52 questions on information about produced and (re-)used data, data quality aspects, information about the use of standards, publication practices and legal aspects of agricultural research data, the current situation in RDM in regards to awareness, consulting and curricula as well as needs of the agricultural community in respect to future developments. We received 196 (partially) completed questionnaires from data providers, data users, infrastructure and information service providers. In addition to the diversity in the research data landscape of agricultural sciences in Germany, the study reveals challenges, deficits and uncertainties in handling research data in agricultural sciences standing in the way of access and efficient reuse of valuable research data. However, the study also suggests and discusses potential solutions to enhance data publications, facilitate and secure data re-use, ensure data quality and develop services (i.e. training, support and bundling services). Therefore, our research article provides the basis for the development of common RDM, future infrastructures and services needed to foster the cultural change in handling research data across agricultural sciences in Germany and beyond.
- ItemCharacterizing the sectoral development of cities(San Francisco, California, US : PLOS, 2021) Rybski, Diego; Pradhan, Prajal; Shutters, Shade T.; Butsic, Van; Kropp, Jürgen P.; Xue, BingPrevious research has identified a predictive model of how a nation’s distribution of gross domestic product (GDP) among agriculture (a), industry (i), and services (s) changes as a country develops. Here we use this national model to analyze the composition of GDP for US Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) over time. To characterize the transfer of GDP shares between the sectors in the course of economic development we explore a simple system of differential equations proposed in the country-level model. Fitting the model to more than 120 MSAs we find that according to the obtained parameters MSAs can be classified into 6 groups (consecutive, high industry, re-industrializing; each of them also with reversed development direction). The consecutive transfer (a → i → s) is common but does not represent all MSAs examined. At the 95% confidence level, 40% of MSAs belong to types exhibiting an increasing share of GDP from agriculture. In California, such MSAs, which we classify as part of an agriculture renaissance, are found in the Central Valley.
- ItemUltrafast vibrational control of organohalide perovskite optoelectronic devices using vibrationally promoted electronic resonance(Basingstoke : Nature Publishing Group, 2023) Gallop, Nathaniel. P.; Maslennikov, Dmitry R.; Mondal, Navendu; Goetz, Katelyn P.; Dai, Zhenbang; Schankler, Aaron M.; Sung, Woongmo; Nihonyanagi, Satoshi; Tahara, Tahei; Bodnarchuk, Maryna I.; Kovalenko, Maksym V.; Vaynzof, Yana; Rappe, Andrew M.; Bakulin, Artem A.Vibrational control (VC) of photochemistry through the optical stimulation of structural dynamics is a nascent concept only recently demonstrated for model molecules in solution. Extending VC to state-of-the-art materials may lead to new applications and improved performance for optoelectronic devices. Metal halide perovskites are promising targets for VC due to their mechanical softness and the rich array of vibrational motions of both their inorganic and organic sublattices. Here, we demonstrate the ultrafast VC of FAPbBr3 perovskite solar cells via intramolecular vibrations of the formamidinium cation using spectroscopic techniques based on vibrationally promoted electronic resonance. The observed short (~300 fs) time window of VC highlights the fast dynamics of coupling between the cation and inorganic sublattice. First-principles modelling reveals that this coupling is mediated by hydrogen bonds that modulate both lead halide lattice and electronic states. Cation dynamics modulating this coupling may suppress non-radiative recombination in perovskites, leading to photovoltaics with reduced voltage losses.
- ItemCorrecting systematic errors by hybrid 2D correlation loss functions in nonlinear inverse modelling(San Francisco, California, US : PLOS, 2023) Mayerhöfer, Thomas G.; Noda, Isao; Pahlow, Susanne; Heintzmann, Rainer; Popp, JürgenRecently a new family of loss functions called smart error sums has been suggested. These loss functions account for correlations within experimental data and force modeled data to obey these correlations. As a result, multiplicative systematic errors of experimental data can be revealed and corrected. The smart error sums are based on 2D correlation analysis which is a comparably recent methodology for analyzing spectroscopic data that has found broad application. In this contribution we mathematically generalize and break down this methodology and the smart error sums to uncover the mathematic roots and simplify it to craft a general tool beyond spectroscopic modelling. This reduction also allows a simplified discussion about limits and prospects of this new method including one of its potential future uses as a sophisticated loss function in deep learning. To support its deployment, the work includes computer code to allow reproduction of the basic results.