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DDC: 300 × Subject: mitigation ×

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    Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): Are we successful in turning trade-offs into synergies?
    (Basingstoke, Hampshire : Palgrave Macmillan, 2019) Kroll, Christian; Warchold, Anne; Pradhan, Prajal
    The Agenda 2030 with its 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) provides the framework that all United Nations (UN) member states have pledged to fulfill. The achievement of this agenda crucially depends on whether humankind will be able to maximize synergies and resolve existing trade-offs between the SDGs. We provide the first analysis of future interactions for projected SDG trends until 2030 within and between goals, and we analyze how trade-offs and synergies have evolved in the recent past globally. For certain goals, we find positive developments with notable synergies in our projections, especially for SDGs 1, 3, 7, 8, and 9: Poverty alleviation and strengthening the economy, rooted in innovation, and modern infrastructure, therefore continue to be the basis upon which many of the other SDGs can be achieved. However, especially SDGs 11, 13, 14, 16, and 17 will continue to have notable trade-offs, as well as non-associations with the other goals in the future, which emphasizes the need to foster innovations and policies that can make our cities and communities more sustainable, as well as strengthen institutions and spur climate action. We show examples of a successful transformation of trade-offs into synergies that should be emulated in other areas to create a virtuous cycle of SDG progress. The alarming inability to overcome certain persistent trade-offs we have found, and indeed the deterioration for some SDGs, can seriously threaten the achievement of the Agenda 2030.
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    Measuring Success: Improving Assessments of Aggregate Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Goals
    (Chichester : John Wiley and Sons Inc, 2018) Jeffery, M.L.; Gütschow, J.; Rocha, M.R.; Gieseke, R.
    Long-term success of the Paris Agreement will depend on the effectiveness of the instruments that it sets in place. Key among these are the nationally determined contributions (NDCs), which elaborate country-specific goals for mitigating and adapting to climate change. One role of the academic community and civil society in supporting the Paris Agreement is to assess the consistency between the near-term action under NDCs and the agreement's long-term goals, thereby providing insight into the chances of long-term success. Here we assess the strengths and weaknesses of current methods to estimate the effectiveness of the mitigation component of NDCs and identify the scientific and political advances that could be made to improve confidence in evaluating NDCs against the long-term goals. Specifically, we highlight (1) the influence of post-2030 assumptions on estimated 21st century warming, (2) uncertainties arising from the lack of published integrated assessment modeling scenarios with long-term, moderate effort reflecting a continuation of the current political situation, and (3) challenges in using a carbon budget approach. We further identify aspects that can be improved in the coming years: clearer communication regarding the meaning, likelihood, and timeframe of NDC consistent warming estimates; additional modeling of long-term, moderate action scenarios; and the identification of metrics for assessing progress that are not based solely on emissions, such as infrastructure investment, energy demand, or installed power capacity.