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- ItemWarming assessment of the bottom-up Paris Agreement emissions pledges([London] : Nature Publishing Group UK, 2018) Robiou du Pont, Yann; Meinshausen, MalteUnder the bottom-up architecture of the Paris Agreement, countries pledge Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Current NDCs individually align, at best, with divergent concepts of equity and are collectively inconsistent with the Paris Agreement. We show that the global 2030-emissions of NDCs match the sum of each country adopting the least-stringent of five effort-sharing allocations of a well-below 2 °C-scenario. Extending such a self-interested bottom-up aggregation of equity might lead to a median 2100-warming of 2.3 °C. Tightening the warming goal of each country’s effort-sharing approach to aspirational levels of 1.1 °C and 1.3 °C could achieve the 1.5 °C and well-below 2 °C-thresholds, respectively. This new hybrid allocation reconciles the bottom-up nature of the Paris Agreement with its top-down warming thresholds and provides a temperature metric to assess NDCs. When taken as benchmark by other countries, the NDCs of India, the EU, the USA and China lead to 2.6 °C, 3.2 °C, 4 °C and over 5.1 °C warmings, respectively.
- ItemA tale of shifting relations: East Asian summer and winter monsoon variability during the Holocene([London] : Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature, 2021) Kaboth-Bahr, Stefanie; Bahr, André; Zeeden, Christian; Yamoah, Kweku A.; Lone, Mahjoor Ahmad; Chuang, Chih-Kai; Löwemark, Ludvig; Wei, Kuo-YenUnderstanding the dynamics between the East Asian summer (EASM) and winter monsoon (EAWM) is needed to predict their variability under future global warming scenarios. Here, we investigate the relationship between EASM and EAWM as well as the mechanisms driving their variability during the last 10,000 years by stacking marine and terrestrial (non-speleothem) proxy records from the East Asian realm. This provides a regional and proxy independent signal for both monsoonal systems. The respective signal was subsequently analysed using a linear regression model. We find that the phase relationship between EASM and EAWM is not time-constant and significantly depends on orbital configuration changes. In addition, changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning circulation, Arctic sea-ice coverage, El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Sun Spot numbers contributed to millennial scale changes in the EASM and EAWM during the Holocene. We also argue that the bulk signal of monsoonal activity captured by the stacked non-speleothem proxy records supports the previously argued bias of speleothem climatic archives to moisture source changes and/or seasonality.
- ItemOrganic carbon burial is paced by a ∼173-ka obliquity cycle in the middle to high latitudes(Washington, DC [u.a.] : Assoc., 2021) Huang, He; Gao, Yuan; Ma, Chao; Jones, Matthew M.; Zeeden, Christian; Ibarra, Daniel E.; Wu, Huaichun; Wang, ChengshanEarth’s climate system is complex and inherently nonlinear, which can induce some extraneous cycles in paleoclimatic proxies at orbital time scales. The paleoenvironmental consequences of these extraneous cycles are debated owing to their complex origin. Here, we compile high-resolution datasets of total organic carbon (TOC) and stable carbon isotope (δ13Corg) datasets to investigate organic carbon burial processes in middle to high latitudes. Our results document a robust cyclicity of ~173 thousand years (ka) in both TOC and δ13Corg. The ~173-ka obliquity–related forcing signal was amplified by internal climate feedbacks of the carbon cycle under different geographic and climate conditions, which control a series of sensitive climatic processes. In addition, our new and compiled records from multiple proxies confirm the presence of the obliquity amplitude modulation (AM) cycle during the Mesozoic and Cenozoic and indicate the usefulness of the ~173-ka cycle as geochronometer and for paleoclimatic interpretation.
- ItemIntercomparison of regional loss estimates from global synthetic tropical cyclone models([London] : Nature Publishing Group UK, 2022) Meiler, Simona; Vogt, Thomas; Bloemendaal, Nadia; Ciullo, Alessio; Lee, Chia-Ying; Camargo, Suzana J.; Emanuel, Kerry; Bresch, David N.Tropical cyclones (TCs) cause devastating damage to life and property. Historical TC data is scarce, complicating adequate TC risk assessments. Synthetic TC models are specifically designed to overcome this scarcity. While these models have been evaluated on their ability to simulate TC activity, no study to date has focused on model performance and applicability in TC risk assessments. This study performs the intercomparison of four different global-scale synthetic TC datasets in the impact space, comparing impact return period curves, probability of rare events, and hazard intensity distribution over land. We find that the model choice influences the costliest events, particularly in basins with limited TC activity. Modelled direct economic damages in the North Indian Ocean, for instance, range from 40 to 246 billion USD for the 100-yr event over the four hazard sets. We furthermore provide guidelines for the suitability of the different synthetic models for various research purposes.
- Item“Climatic fluctuations in the hyperarid core of the Atacama Desert during the past 215 ka”([London] : Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature, 2019) Ritter, Benedikt; Wennrich, Volker; Medialdea, Alicia; Brill, Dominik; King, Georgina; Schneiderwind, Sascha; Niemann, Karin; Fernández-Galego, Emma; Diederich, Julia; Rolf, Christian; Bao, Roberto; Melles, Martin; Dunai, Tibor J.Paleoclimate records from the Atacama Desert are rare and mostly discontinuous, mainly recording runoff from the Precordillera to the east, rather than local precipitation. Until now, paleoclimate records have not been reported from the hyperarid core of the Atacama Desert (<2 mm/yr). Here we report the results from multi-disciplinary investigation of a 6.2 m drill core retrieved from an endorheic basin within the Coastal Cordillera. The record spans the last 215 ka and indicates that the long-term hyperarid climate in the Central Atacama witnessed small but significant changes in precipitation since the penultimate interglacial. Somewhat ‘wetter’ climate with enhanced erosion and transport of material into the investigated basin, commenced during interglacial times (MIS 7, MIS 5), whereas during glacial times (MIS 6, MIS 4–1) sediment transport into the catchment was reduced or even absent. Pelagic diatom assemblages even suggest the existence of ephemeral lakes in the basin. The reconstructed wetter phases are asynchronous with wet phases in the Altiplano but synchronous with increased sea-surface temperatures off the coasts of Chile and Peru, i.e. resembling modern El Niño-like conditions.
- ItemInvestment incentive reduced by climate damages can be restored by optimal policy([London] : Nature Publishing Group UK, 2021) Willner, Sven N.; Glanemann, Nicole; Levermann, AndersIncreasing greenhouse gas emissions are likely to impact not only natural systems but economies worldwide. If these impacts alter future economic development, the financial losses will be significantly higher than the mere direct damages. So far, potentially aggravating investment responses were considered negligible. Here we consistently incorporate an empirically derived temperature-growth relation into the simple integrated assessment model DICE. In this framework we show that, if in the next eight decades varying temperatures impact economic growth as has been observed in the past three decades, income is reduced by ~ 20% compared to an economy unaffected by climate change. Hereof ~ 40% are losses due to growth effects of which ~ 50% result from reduced incentive to invest. This additional income loss arises from a reduced incentive for future investment in anticipation of a reduced return and not from an explicit climate protection policy. Under economically optimal climate-change mitigation, however, optimal investment would only be reduced marginally as mitigation efforts keep returns high.
- ItemThe influence of Arctic amplification on mid-latitude summer circulation([London] : Nature Publishing Group UK, 2018) Coumou, D.; Di Capua, G.; Vavrus, S.; Wang, L.; Wang, S.Accelerated warming in the Arctic, as compared to the rest of the globe, might have profound impacts on mid-latitude weather. Most studies analyzing Arctic links to mid-latitude weather focused on winter, yet recent summers have seen strong reductions in sea-ice extent and snow cover, a weakened equator-to-pole thermal gradient and associated weakening of the mid-latitude circulation. We review the scientific evidence behind three leading hypotheses on the influence of Arctic changes on mid-latitude summer weather: Weakened storm tracks, shifted jet streams, and amplified quasi-stationary waves. We show that interactions between Arctic teleconnections and other remote and regional feedback processes could lead to more persistent hot-dry extremes in the mid-latitudes. The exact nature of these non-linear interactions is not well quantified but they provide potential high-impact risks for society.
- ItemPhase coherence between precipitation in South America and Rossby waves(Washington, DC [u.a.] : Assoc., 2018) Gelbrecht, Maximilian; Boers, Niklas; Kurths, JürgenThe dominant mode of intraseasonal precipitation variability during the South American monsoon is the so-called precipitation dipole between the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) and southeastern South America (SESA). It affects highly populated areas that are of substantial importance for the regional food supplies. Previous studies using principal components analysis or complex networks were able to describe and characterize this variability pattern, but crucial questions regarding the responsible physical mechanism remain open. Here, we use phase synchronization techniques to study the relation between precipitation in the SACZ and SESA on the one hand and southern hemisphere Rossby wave trains on the other hand. In combination with a conceptual model, this approach demonstrates that the dipolar precipitation pattern is caused by the southern hemisphere Rossby waves. Our results thus show that Rossby waves are the main driver of the monsoon season variability in South America, a finding that has important implications for synoptic-scale weather forecasts.
- ItemCommon solar wind drivers behind magnetic storm–magnetospheric substorm dependency([London] : Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature, 2018) Runge, Jakob; Balasis, Georgios; Daglis, Ioannis A.; Papadimitriou, Constantinos; Donner, Reik V.The dynamical relationship between magnetic storms and magnetospheric substorms is one of the most controversial issues of contemporary space research. Here, we address this issue through a causal inference approach to two corresponding indices in conjunction with several relevant solar wind variables. We find that the vertical component of the interplanetary magnetic field is the strongest and common driver of both storms and substorms. Further, our results suggest, at least based on the analyzed indices, that there is no statistical evidence for a direct or indirect dependency between substorms and storms and their statistical association can be explained by the common solar drivers. Given the powerful statistical tests we performed (by simultaneously taking into account time series of indices and solar wind variables), a physical mechanism through which substorms directly or indirectly drive storms or vice versa is, therefore, unlikely.
- ItemWeibull-distributed dyke thickness reflects probabilistic character of host-rock strength([London] : Nature Publishing Group UK, 2014) Krumbholz, Michael; Hieronymus, Christoph F.; Burchardt, Steffi; Troll, Valentin R.; Tanner, David C.; Friese, NadineMagmatic sheet intrusions (dykes) constitute the main form of magma transport in the Earth’s crust. The size distribution of dykes is a crucial parameter that controls volcanic surface deformation and eruption rates and is required to realistically model volcano deformation for eruption forecasting. Here we present statistical analyses of 3,676 dyke thickness measurements from different tectonic settings and show that dyke thickness consistently follows the Weibull distribution. Known from materials science, power law-distributed flaws in brittle materials lead to Weibull-distributed failure stress. We therefore propose a dynamic model in which dyke thickness is determined by variable magma pressure that exploits differently sized host-rock weaknesses. The observed dyke thickness distributions are thus site-specific because rock strength, rather than magma viscosity and composition, exerts the dominant control on dyke emplacement. Fundamentally, the strength of geomaterials is scale-dependent and should be approximated by a probability distribution.