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- ItemChanges in crop yields and their variability at different levels of global warming(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2018) Ostberg, Sebastian; Schewe, Jacob; Childers, Katelin; Frieler, KatjaAn assessment of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming is crucial to inform the policy discussion about mitigation targets, as well as for the economic evaluation of climate change impacts. Integrated assessment models often use global mean temperature change (ΔGMT) as a sole measure of climate change and, therefore, need to describe impacts as a function of ΔGMT. There is already a well-established framework for the scalability of regional temperature and precipitation changes with ΔGMT. It is less clear to what extent more complex biological or physiological impacts such as crop yield changes can also be described in terms of ΔGMT, even though such impacts may often be more directly relevant for human livelihoods than changes in the physical climate. Here we show that crop yield projections can indeed be described in terms of ΔGMT to a large extent, allowing for a fast estimation of crop yield changes for emissions scenarios not originally covered by climate and crop model projections. We use an ensemble of global gridded crop model simulations for the four major staple crops to show that the scenario dependence is a minor component of the overall variance of projected yield changes at different levels of ΔGMT. In contrast, the variance is dominated by the spread across crop models. Varying CO2 concentrations are shown to explain only a minor component of crop yield variability at different levels of global warming. In addition, we find that the variability in crop yields is expected to increase with increasing warming in many world regions. We provide, for each crop model, geographical patterns of mean yield changes that allow for a simplified description of yield changes under arbitrary pathways of global mean temperature and CO2 changes, without the need for additional climate and crop model simulations.
- ItemSources of uncertainty in hydrological climate impact assessment: A cross-scale study(Bristol : IOP Publishing, 2018) Hattermann, F.F.; Vetter, T.; Breuer, L.; Su, Buda; Daggupati, P.; Donnelly, C.; Fekete, B.; Flörke, F.; Gosling, S.N.; Hoffmann, P.; Liersch, S.; Masaki, Y.; Motovilov, Y.; Müller, C.; Samaniego, L.; Stacke, T.; Wada, Y.; Yang, T.; Krysnaova, V.Climate change impacts on water availability and hydrological extremes are major concerns as regards the Sustainable Development Goals. Impacts on hydrology are normally investigated as part of a modelling chain, in which climate projections from multiple climate models are used as inputs to multiple impact models, under different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, which result in different amounts of global temperature rise. While the goal is generally to investigate the relevance of changes in climate for the water cycle, water resources or hydrological extremes, it is often the case that variations in other components of the model chain obscure the effect of climate scenario variation. This is particularly important when assessing the impacts of relatively lower magnitudes of global warming, such as those associated with the aspirational goals of the Paris Agreement. In our study, we use ANOVA (analyses of variance) to allocate and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in the hydrological impact modelling chain. In turn we determine the statistical significance of different sources of uncertainty. We achieve this by using a set of five climate models and up to 13 hydrological models, for nine large scale river basins across the globe, under four emissions scenarios. The impact variable we consider in our analysis is daily river discharge. We analyze overall water availability and flow regime, including seasonality, high flows and low flows. Scaling effects are investigated by separately looking at discharge generated by global and regional hydrological models respectively. Finally, we compare our results with other recently published studies. We find that small differences in global temperature rise associated with some emissions scenarios have mostly significant impacts on river discharge—however, climate model related uncertainty is so large that it obscures the sensitivity of the hydrological system.
- ItemNew methodology to process shifted excitation Raman difference spectroscopy data : a case study of pollen classification([London] : Macmillan Publishers Limited, 2020) Korinth, F.; Mondol, A.S.; Stiebing, C.; Schie, I.W.; Krafft, C.; Popp, J.Shifted excitation Raman difference spectroscopy (SERDS) is a background correction method for Raman spectroscopy. Here, the difference spectra were directly used as input for SERDS-based classification after an optimization procedure to correct for photobleaching of the autofluorescence. Further processing included a principal component analysis to compensate for the reduced signal to noise ratio of the difference spectra and subsequent classification by linear discriminant analysis. As a case study 6,028 Raman spectra of single pollen originating from plants of eight different genera and four different growth habits were automatically recorded at excitation wavelengths 784 and 786 nm using a high-throughput screening Raman system. Different pollen were distinguished according to their growth habit, i.e. tree versus non-tree with an accuracy of 95.9%. Furthermore, all pollen were separated according to their genus, providing also insight into similarities based on their families. Classification results were compared using spectra reconstructed from the differences and raw spectra after state-of-art baseline correction as input. Similar sensitivities, specificities, accuracies and precisions were found for all spectra with moderately background. Advantages of SERDS are expected in scenarios where Raman spectra are affected by variations due to detector etaloning, ambient light, and high background.
- ItemBiogeochemical potential of biomass pyrolysis systems for limiting global warming to 1.5 °C(Bristol : IOP Publishing, 2018) Werner, C.; Schmidt, H.-P.; Gerten, D.; Lucht, W.; Kammann, C.Negative emission (NE) technologies are recognized to play an increasingly relevant role in strategies limiting mean global warming to 1.5 °C as specified in the Paris Agreement. The potentially significant contribution of pyrogenic carbon capture and storage (PyCCS) is, however, highly underrepresented in the discussion. In this study, we conduct the first quantitative assessment of the global potential of PyCCS as a NE technology based on biomass plantations. Using a process-based biosphere model, we calculate the land use change required to reach specific climate mitigation goals while observing biodiversity protection guardrails. We consider NE targets of 100–300 GtC following socioeconomic pathways consistent with a mean global warming of 1.5 °C as well as the option of additional carbon balancing required in case of failure or delay of decarbonization measures. The technological opportunities of PyCCS are represented by three tracks accounting for the sequestration of different pyrolysis products: biochar (as soil amendment), bio-oil (pumped into geological storages) and permanent-pyrogas (capture and storage of CO2 from gas combustion). In addition, we analyse how the gain in land induced by biochar-mediated yield increases on tropical cropland may reduce the pressure on land. Our results show that meeting the 1.5 °C goal through mitigation strategies including large-scale NE with plantation-based PyCCS may require conversion of natural vegetation to biomass plantations in the order of 133–3280 Mha globally, depending on the applied technology and the NE demand. Advancing towards additional bio-oil sequestration reduces land demand considerably by potentially up to 60%, while the benefits from yield increases account for another 3%–38% reduction (equalling 82–362 Mha). However, when mitigation commitments are increased by high balancing claims, even the most advanced PyCCS technologies and biochar-mediated co-benefits cannot compensate for delayed action towards phasing-out fossil fuels.
- ItemLarge-scale bioenergy production: How to resolve sustainability trade-offs?(Bristol : IOP Publishing, 2018) Humpenöder, Florian; Popp, Alexander; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Weindl, Isabelle; Biewald, Anne; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Klein, David; Kreidenweis, Ulrich; Müller, Christoph; Rolinski, Susanne; Stevanovic, MiodragLarge-scale 2nd generation bioenergy deployment is a key element of 1.5 °C and 2 °C transformation pathways. However, large-scale bioenergy production might have negative sustainability implications and thus may conflict with the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) agenda. Here, we carry out a multi-criteria sustainability assessment of large-scale bioenergy crop production throughout the 21st century (300 EJ in 2100) using a global land-use model. Our analysis indicates that large-scale bioenergy production without complementary measures results in negative effects on the following sustainability indicators: deforestation, CO2 emissions from land-use change, nitrogen losses, unsustainable water withdrawals and food prices. One of our main findings is that single-sector environmental protection measures next to large-scale bioenergy production are prone to involve trade-offs among these sustainability indicators—at least in the absence of more efficient land or water resource use. For instance, if bioenergy production is accompanied by forest protection, deforestation and associated emissions (SDGs 13 and 15) decline substantially whereas food prices (SDG 2) increase. However, our study also shows that this trade-off strongly depends on the development of future food demand. In contrast to environmental protection measures, we find that agricultural intensification lowers some side-effects of bioenergy production substantially (SDGs 13 and 15) without generating new trade-offs—at least among the sustainability indicators considered here. Moreover, our results indicate that a combination of forest and water protection schemes, improved fertilization efficiency, and agricultural intensification would reduce the side-effects of bioenergy production most comprehensively. However, although our study includes more sustainability indicators than previous studies on bioenergy side-effects, our study represents only a small subset of all indicators relevant for the SDG agenda. Based on this, we argue that the development of policies for regulating externalities of large-scale bioenergy production should rely on broad sustainability assessments to discover potential trade-offs with the SDG agenda before implementation.
- ItemFuture heat stress to reduce people’s purchasing power(San Francisco, Ca. : PLOS, 2021) Kuhla, Kilian; Willner, Sven Norman; Otto, Christian; Wenz, Leonie; Levermann, AndersWith increasing carbon emissions rising temperatures are likely to impact our economies and societies profoundly. In particular, it has been shown that heat stress can strongly reduce labor productivity. The resulting economic perturbations can propagate along the global supply network. Here we show, using numerical simulations, that output losses due to heat stress alone are expected to increase by about 24% within the next 20 years, if no additional adaptation measures are taken. The subsequent market response with rising prices and supply shortages strongly reduces the consumers’ purchasing power in almost all countries including the US and Europe with particularly strong effects in India, Brazil, and Indonesia. As a consequence, the producing sectors in many regions temporarily benefit from higher selling prices while decreasing their production in quantity, whereas other countries suffer losses within their entire national economy. Our results stress that, even though climate shocks may stimulate economic activity in some regions and some sectors, their unpredictability exerts increasing pressure on people’s livelihood.
- ItemOne-shot phase-recovery using a cellphone RGB camera on a Jamin-Lebedeff microscope(San Francisco, California, US : PLOS, 2019) Diederich, Benedict; Marsikova, Barbora; Amos, Brad; Heintzmann, RainerJamin-Lebedeff (JL) polarization interference microscopy is a classical method for determining the change in the optical path of transparent tissues. Whilst a differential interference contrast (DIC) microscopy interferes an image with itself shifted by half a point spread function, the shear between the object and reference image in a JL-microscope is about half the field of view. The optical path difference (OPD) between the sample and reference region (assumed to be empty) is encoded into a color by white-light interference. From a color-table, the Michel-Levy chart, the OPD can be deduced. In cytology JL-imaging can be used as a way to determine the OPD which closely corresponds to the dry mass per area of cells in a single image. Like in other interference microscopy methods (e.g. holography), we present a phase retrieval method relying on single-shot measurements only, thus allowing real-time quantitative phase measurements. This is achieved by adding several customized 3D-printed parts (e.g. rotational polarization-filter holders) and a modern cellphone with an RGB-camera to the Jamin-Lebedeff setup, thus bringing an old microscope back to life. The algorithm is calibrated using a reference image of a known phase object (e.g. optical fiber). A gradient-descent based inverse problem generates an inverse look-up-table (LUT) which is used to convert the measured RGB signal of a phase-sample into an OPD. To account for possible ambiguities in the phase-map or phase-unwrapping artifacts we introduce a total-variation based regularization. We present results from fixed and living biological samples as well as reference samples for comparison.
- ItemThree step flow focusing enables image-based discrimination and sorting of late stage 1 Haematococcus pluvialis cells(San Francisco, Ca. : PLOS, 2021) Kraus, Daniel; Kleiber, Andreas; Ehrhardt, Enrico; Leifheit, Matthias; Horbert, Peter; Urban, Matthias; Gleichmann, Nils; Mayer, Guenter; Popp, Juergen; Henkel, ThomasLabel-free and gentle separation of cell stages with desired target properties from mixed stage populations are a major research task in modern biotechnological cultivation process and optimization of micro algae. The reported microfluidic sorter system (MSS) allows the subsequent investigation of separated subpopulations. The implementation of a viability preserving MSS is shown for separation of late stage 1 Haematococcus pluvialis (HP) cells form a mixed stage population. The MSS combines a three-step flow focusing unit for aligning the cells in single file transportation mode at the center of the microfluidic channel with a pure hydrodynamic sorter structure for cell sorting. Lateral displacement of the cells into one of the two outlet channels is generated by piezo-actuated pump chambers. In-line decision making for sorting is based on a user-definable set of image features and properties. The reported MSS significantly increased the purity of target cells in the sorted population (94%) in comparison to the initial mixed stage population (19%).