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    Direct estimation of the global distribution of vertical velocity within cirrus clouds
    (London : Nature Publishing Group, 2017) Barahona, Donifan; Molod, Andrea; Kalesse, Heike
    Cirrus clouds determine the radiative balance of the upper troposphere and the transport of water vapor across the tropopause. The representation of vertical wind velocity, W, in atmospheric models constitutes the largest source of uncertainty in the calculation of the cirrus formation rate. Using global atmospheric simulations with a spatial resolution of 7 km we obtain for the first time a direct estimate of the distribution of W at the scale relevant for cirrus formation, validated against long-term observations at two different ground sites. The standard deviation in W, σ w, varies widely over the globe with the highest values resulting from orographic uplift and convection, and the lowest occurring in the Arctic. Globally about 90% of the simulated σ w values are below 0.1 m s-1 and about one in 104 cloud formation events occur in environments with σ w > 0.8 m s-1. Combining our estimate with reanalysis products and an advanced cloud formation scheme results in lower homogeneous ice nucleation frequency than previously reported, and a decreasing average ice crystal concentration with decreasing temperature. These features are in agreement with observations and suggest that the correct parameterization of σ w is critical to simulate realistic cirrus properties.
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    Alberta wildfire 2016: Apt contribution from anomalous planetary wave dynamics
    ([London] : Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature, 2018) Petoukhov, Vladimir; Petri, Stefan; Kornhuber, Kai; Thonicke, Kirsten; Coumou, Dim; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim
    In May-June 2016 the Canadian Province of Alberta suffered one of the most devastating wildfires in its history. Here we show that in mid-April to early May 2016 the large-scale circulation in the mid- and high troposphere of the middle and sub-polar latitudes of the northern hemisphere featured a persistent high-amplitude planetary wave structure dominated by the non-dimensional zonal wave number 4. The strongest anticyclonic wing of this structure was located over western Canada. In combination with a very strong El Niño event in winter 2015/2016 this favored highly anomalous, tinder-dry and high-temperature conditions at the surface in that area, entailing an increased fire hazard there. This critically contributed to the ignition of the Alberta Wildfire in May 2016, appearing to be the costliest disaster in Canadian history thus far.