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- ItemGlobal warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice([London] : Nature Publishing Group UK, 2020) Wunderling, Nico; Willeit, Matteo; Donges, Jonathan F.; Winkelmann, RicardaSeveral large-scale cryosphere elements such as the Arctic summer sea ice, the mountain glaciers, the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheet have changed substantially during the last century due to anthropogenic global warming. However, the impacts of their possible future disintegration on global mean temperature (GMT) and climate feedbacks have not yet been comprehensively evaluated. Here, we quantify this response using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity. Overall, we find a median additional global warming of 0.43 °C (interquartile range: 0.39−0.46 °C) at a CO2 concentration of 400 ppm. Most of this response (55%) is caused by albedo changes, but lapse rate together with water vapour (30%) and cloud feedbacks (15%) also contribute significantly. While a decay of the ice sheets would occur on centennial to millennial time scales, the Arctic might become ice-free during summer within the 21st century. Our findings imply an additional increase of the GMT on intermediate to long time scales.
- ItemA tale of shifting relations: East Asian summer and winter monsoon variability during the Holocene([London] : Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature, 2021) Kaboth-Bahr, Stefanie; Bahr, André; Zeeden, Christian; Yamoah, Kweku A.; Lone, Mahjoor Ahmad; Chuang, Chih-Kai; Löwemark, Ludvig; Wei, Kuo-YenUnderstanding the dynamics between the East Asian summer (EASM) and winter monsoon (EAWM) is needed to predict their variability under future global warming scenarios. Here, we investigate the relationship between EASM and EAWM as well as the mechanisms driving their variability during the last 10,000 years by stacking marine and terrestrial (non-speleothem) proxy records from the East Asian realm. This provides a regional and proxy independent signal for both monsoonal systems. The respective signal was subsequently analysed using a linear regression model. We find that the phase relationship between EASM and EAWM is not time-constant and significantly depends on orbital configuration changes. In addition, changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning circulation, Arctic sea-ice coverage, El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Sun Spot numbers contributed to millennial scale changes in the EASM and EAWM during the Holocene. We also argue that the bulk signal of monsoonal activity captured by the stacked non-speleothem proxy records supports the previously argued bias of speleothem climatic archives to moisture source changes and/or seasonality.
- ItemDirect estimation of the global distribution of vertical velocity within cirrus clouds(London : Nature Publishing Group, 2017) Barahona, Donifan; Molod, Andrea; Kalesse, HeikeCirrus clouds determine the radiative balance of the upper troposphere and the transport of water vapor across the tropopause. The representation of vertical wind velocity, W, in atmospheric models constitutes the largest source of uncertainty in the calculation of the cirrus formation rate. Using global atmospheric simulations with a spatial resolution of 7 km we obtain for the first time a direct estimate of the distribution of W at the scale relevant for cirrus formation, validated against long-term observations at two different ground sites. The standard deviation in W, σ w, varies widely over the globe with the highest values resulting from orographic uplift and convection, and the lowest occurring in the Arctic. Globally about 90% of the simulated σ w values are below 0.1 m s-1 and about one in 104 cloud formation events occur in environments with σ w > 0.8 m s-1. Combining our estimate with reanalysis products and an advanced cloud formation scheme results in lower homogeneous ice nucleation frequency than previously reported, and a decreasing average ice crystal concentration with decreasing temperature. These features are in agreement with observations and suggest that the correct parameterization of σ w is critical to simulate realistic cirrus properties.
- ItemCollocated observations of cloud condensation nuclei, particle size distributions, and chemical composition(London : Nature Publ. Group, 2017) Schmale, Julia; Henning, Silvia; Henzing, Bas; Keskinen, Helmi; Sellegri, Karine; Ovadnevaite, Jurgita; Bougiatioti, Aikaterini; Kalivitis, Nikos; Stavroulas, Iasonas; Jefferson, Anne; Park, Minsu; Schlag, Patrick; Kristensson, Adam; Iwamoto, Yoko; Pringle, Kirsty; Reddington, Carly; Aalto, Pasi; Äijälä, Mikko; Baltensperger, Urs; Bialek, Jakub; Birmili, Wolfram; Bukowiecki, Nicolas; Ehn, Mikael; Fjæraa, Ann Mari; Fiebig, Markus; Frank, Göran; Fröhlich, Roman; Frumau, Arnoud; Furuya, Masaki; Hammer, Emanuel; Heikkinen, Liine; Herrmann, Erik; Holzinger, Rupert; Hyono, Hiroyuki; Kanakidou, Maria; Kiendler-Scharr, Astrid; Kinouchi, Kento; Kos, Gerard; Kulmala, Markku; Mihalopoulos, Nikolaos; Motos, Ghislain; Nenes, Athanasios; O’Dowd, Colin; Paramonov, Mikhail; Petäjä, Tuukka; Picard, David; Poulain, Laurent; Prévôt, André Stephan Henry; Slowik, Jay; Sonntag, Andre; Swietlicki, Erik; Svenningsson, Birgitta; Tsurumaru, Hiroshi; Wiedensohler, Alfred; Wittbom, Cerina; Ogren, John A.; Matsuki, Atsushi; Yum, Seong Soo; Myhre, Cathrine Lund; Carslaw, Ken; Stratmann, Frank; Gysel, MartinCloud condensation nuclei (CCN) number concentrations alongside with submicrometer particle number size distributions and particle chemical composition have been measured at atmospheric observatories of the Aerosols, Clouds, and Trace gases Research InfraStructure (ACTRIS) as well as other international sites over multiple years. Here, harmonized data records from 11 observatories are summarized, spanning 98,677 instrument hours for CCN data, 157,880 for particle number size distributions, and 70,817 for chemical composition data. The observatories represent nine different environments, e.g., Arctic, Atlantic, Pacific and Mediterranean maritime, boreal forest, or high alpine atmospheric conditions. This is a unique collection of aerosol particle properties most relevant for studying aerosol-cloud interactions which constitute the largest uncertainty in anthropogenic radiative forcing of the climate. The dataset is appropriate for comprehensive aerosol characterization (e.g., closure studies of CCN), model-measurement intercomparison and satellite retrieval method evaluation, among others. Data have been acquired and processed following international recommendations for quality assurance and have undergone multiple stages of quality assessment.