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- ItemHistorical greenhouse gas concentrations for climate modelling (CMIP6)(MĆ¼nchen : European Geopyhsical Union, 2017) Meinshausen, Malte; Vogel, Elisabeth; Nauels, Alexander; Lorbacher, Katja; Meinshausen, Nicolai; Etheridge, David M.; Fraser, Paul J.; Montzka, Stephen A.; Rayner, Peter J.; Trudinger, Cathy M.; Krummel, Paul B.; Beyerle, Urs; Canadell, Josep G.; Daniel, John S.; Enting, Ian G.; Law, Rachel M. Law; Lunder, Chris R.; O'Doherty, Simon; Prinn, Ron G.; Reimann, Stefan; Rubino, Mauro; Velders, Guus J.M.; Vollmer, Martin K.; Wang, Ray H.J.; Weiss, RayAtmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations are at unprecedented, record-high levels compared to the last 800000 years. Those elevated GHG concentrations warm the planet and ā partially offset by net cooling effects by aerosols ā are largely responsible for the observed warming over the past 150 years. An accurate representation of GHG concentrations is hence important to understand and model recent climate change. So far, community efforts to create composite datasets of GHG concentrations with seasonal and latitudinal information have focused on marine boundary layer conditions and recent trends since the 1980s. Here, we provide consolidated datasets of historical atmospheric concentrations (mole fractions) of 43 GHGs to be used in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project ā Phase 6 (CMIP6) experiments. The presented datasets are based on AGAGE and NOAA networks, firn and ice core data, and archived air data, and a large set of published studies. In contrast to previous intercomparisons, the new datasets are latitudinally resolved and include seasonality. We focus on the period 1850ā2014 for historical CMIP6 runs, but data are also provided for the last 2000 years. We provide consolidated datasets in various spatiotemporal resolutions for carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), as well as 40 other GHGs, namely 17 ozone-depleting substances, 11 hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), 9 perfluorocarbons (PFCs), sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) and sulfuryl fluoride (SO2F2). In addition, we provide three equivalence species that aggregate concentrations of GHGs other than CO2, CH4 and N2O, weighted by their radiative forcing efficiencies. For the year 1850, which is used for pre-industrial control runs, we estimate annual global-mean surface concentrations of CO2 at 284.3ppm, CH4 at 808.2ppb and N2O at 273.0ppb. The data are available at https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/input4mips/ and http://www.climatecollege.unimelb.edu.au/cmip6. While the minimum CMIP6 recommendation is to use the global- and annual-mean time series, modelling groups can also choose our monthly and latitudinally resolved concentrations, which imply a stronger radiative forcing in the Northern Hemisphere winter (due to the latitudinal gradient and seasonality).
- ItemRegions of intensification of extreme snowfall under future warming([London] : Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature, 2021) Quante, Lennart; Willner, Sven N.; Middelanis, Robin; Levermann, AndersDue to climate change the frequency and character of precipitation are changing as the hydrological cycle intensifies. With regards to snowfall, global warming has two opposing influences; increasing humidity enables intense snowfall, whereas higher temperatures decrease the likelihood of snowfall. Here we show an intensification of extreme snowfall across large areas of the Northern Hemisphere under future warming. This is robust across an ensemble of global climate models when they are bias-corrected with observational data. While mean daily snowfall decreases, both the 99th and the 99.9th percentiles of daily snowfall increase in many regions in the next decades, especially for Northern America and Asia. Additionally, the average intensity of snowfall events exceeding these percentiles as experienced historically increases in many regions. This is likely to pose a challenge to municipalities in mid to high latitudes. Overall, extreme snowfall events are likely to become an increasingly important impact of climate change in the next decades, even if they will become rarer, but not necessarily less intense, in the second half of the century.
- ItemAlberta wildfire 2016: Apt contribution from anomalous planetary wave dynamics([London] : Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature, 2018) Petoukhov, Vladimir; Petri, Stefan; Kornhuber, Kai; Thonicke, Kirsten; Coumou, Dim; Schellnhuber, Hans JoachimIn May-June 2016 the Canadian Province of Alberta suffered one of the most devastating wildfires in its history. Here we show that in mid-April to early May 2016 the large-scale circulation in the mid- and high troposphere of the middle and sub-polar latitudes of the northern hemisphere featured a persistent high-amplitude planetary wave structure dominated by the non-dimensional zonal wave number 4. The strongest anticyclonic wing of this structure was located over western Canada. In combination with a very strong El NiƱo event in winter 2015/2016 this favored highly anomalous, tinder-dry and high-temperature conditions at the surface in that area, entailing an increased fire hazard there. This critically contributed to the ignition of the Alberta Wildfire in May 2016, appearing to be the costliest disaster in Canadian history thus far.