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DDC: 500 × Subject: model ×

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    State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes
    ([London] : Nature Publishing Group UK, 2019) Schewe, Jacob; Gosling, Simon N.; Reyer, Christopher; Zhao, Fang; Ciais, Philippe; Elliott, Joshua; Francois, Louis; Huber, Veronika; Lotze, Heike K.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Vautard, Robert; Wada, Yoshihide; Breuer, Lutz; Büchner, Matthias; Carozza, David A.; Chang, Jinfeng; Coll, Marta; Deryng, Delphine; de Wit, Allard; Eddy, Tyler D.; Folberth, Christian; Frieler, Katja; Friend, Andrew D.; Gerten, Dieter; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Hanasaki, Naota; Ito, Akihiko; Khabarov, Nikolay; Kim, Hyungjun; Lawrence, Peter; Morfopoulos, Catherine; Müller, Christoph; Müller Schmied, Hannes; Orth, René; Ostberg, Sebastian; Pokhrel, Yadu; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Sakurai, Gen; Satoh, Yusuke; Schmid, Erwin; Stacke, Tobias; Steenbeek, Jeroen; Steinkamp, Jörg; Tang, Qiuhong; Tian, Hanqin; Tittensor, Derek P.; Volkholz, Jan; Wang, Xuhui; Warszawski, Lila
    Global impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here we test, for the first time, systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate conditions. Using the 2003 European heat wave and drought as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, we find that a majority of models underestimate the extremeness of impacts in important sectors such as agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, and heat-related human mortality, while impacts on water resources and hydropower are overestimated in some river basins; and the spread across models is often large. This has important implications for economic assessments of climate change impacts that rely on these models. It also means that societal risks from future extreme events may be greater than previously thought.
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    Spatiotemporal data analysis with chronological networks
    ([London] : Nature Publishing Group UK, 2020) Ferreira, Leonardo N.; Vega-Oliveros, Didier A.; Cotacallapa, Moshé; Cardoso, Manoel F.; Quiles, Marcos G.; Zhao, Liang; Macau, Elbert E. N.
    The number of spatiotemporal data sets has increased rapidly in the last years, which demands robust and fast methods to extract information from this kind of data. Here, we propose a network-based model, called Chronnet, for spatiotemporal data analysis. The network construction process consists of dividing a geometric space into grid cells represented by nodes connected chronologically. Strong links in the network represent consecutive recurrent events between cells. The chronnet construction process is fast, making the model suitable to process large data sets. Using artificial and real data sets, we show how chronnets can capture data properties beyond simple statistics, like frequent patterns, spatial changes, outliers, and spatiotemporal clusters. Therefore, we conclude that chronnets represent a robust tool for the analysis of spatiotemporal data sets.
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    In-situ terahertz optical Hall effect measurements of ambient effects on free charge carrier properties of epitaxial graphene
    (London : Nature Publishing Group, 2017) Knight, Sean; Hofmann, Tino; Bouhafs, Chamseddine; Armakavicius, Nerijus; Kühne, Philipp; Stanishev, Vallery; Ivanov, Ivan G.; Yakimova, Rositsa; Wimer, Shawn; Schubert, Mathias; Darakchieva, Vanya
    Unraveling the doping-related charge carrier scattering mechanisms in two-dimensional materials such as graphene is vital for limiting parasitic electrical conductivity losses in future electronic applications. While electric field doping is well understood, assessment of mobility and density as a function of chemical doping remained a challenge thus far. In this work, we investigate the effects of cyclically exposing epitaxial graphene to controlled inert gases and ambient humidity conditions, while measuring the Lorentz force-induced birefringence in graphene at Terahertz frequencies in magnetic fields. This technique, previously identified as the optical analogue of the electrical Hall effect, permits here measurement of charge carrier type, density, and mobility in epitaxial graphene on silicon-face silicon carbide. We observe a distinct, nearly linear relationship between mobility and electron charge density, similar to field-effect induced changes measured in electrical Hall bar devices previously. The observed doping process is completely reversible and independent of the type of inert gas exposure.