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- ItemPredicting the data structure prior to extreme events from passive observables using echo state network(Lausanne : Frontiers Media, 2022) Banerjee, Abhirup; Mishra, Arindam; Dana, Syamal K.; Hens, Chittaranjan; Kapitaniak, Tomasz; Kurths, Jürgen; Marwan, NorbertExtreme events are defined as events that largely deviate from the nominal state of the system as observed in a time series. Due to the rarity and uncertainty of their occurrence, predicting extreme events has been challenging. In real life, some variables (passive variables) often encode significant information about the occurrence of extreme events manifested in another variable (active variable). For example, observables such as temperature, pressure, etc., act as passive variables in case of extreme precipitation events. These passive variables do not show any large excursion from the nominal condition yet carry the fingerprint of the extreme events. In this study, we propose a reservoir computation-based framework that can predict the preceding structure or pattern in the time evolution of the active variable that leads to an extreme event using information from the passive variable. An appropriate threshold height of events is a prerequisite for detecting extreme events and improving the skill of their prediction. We demonstrate that the magnitude of extreme events and the appearance of a coherent pattern before the arrival of the extreme event in a time series affect the prediction skill. Quantitatively, we confirm this using a metric describing the mean phase difference between the input time signals, which decreases when the magnitude of the extreme event is relatively higher, thereby increasing the predictability skill.
- ItemGeneralized Synchronization Between ENSO and Hydrological Variables in Colombia: A Recurrence Quantification Approach(Lausanne : Frontiers Media, 2020) Salas, Hernán D.; Poveda, Germán; Mesa, Óscar J.; Marwan, NorbertWe use Recurrence Quantification Analysis (RQA) to study features of Generalized Synchronization (GS) between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and monthly hydrological anomalies (HyAns) of rainfall and streamflows in Colombia. To that end, we check the sensitivity of the RQA concerning diverse HyAns estimation methods, which constitutes a fundamental procedure for any climatological analysis at inter-annual timescales. In general, the GS and its sensitivity to HyAns methods are quantified by means of time-lagged joint recurrence analysis. Then, we link the GS results with the dynamics of major physical mechanisms that modulate Colombia's hydroclimatology, including the Caribbean, the CHOCO and the Orinoco Low-Level Jets (LLJs), and the Cross-Equatorial Flow (CEF) over northwestern Amazonia (southern Colombia). Our findings show that RQA exhibits significant differences depending on the HyAns methods. GS results are similar for the HyAns methods with variable annual cycle but the time-lags seem to be sensitive. On the other hand, our results make evident that HyAns in the Pacific, Caribbean, and Andean regions of Colombia exhibit strong (weak) GS with the ENSO signal during La Niña (El Niño), when hydrological anomalies are positive (negative). Results from the GS analysis allow us to identify spatial patterns of non-linear dependence between ENSO and the Colombian's climatology. The mentioned moisture transport sources constitute the interdependence mechanism and contribute to explain hydrological anomalies in Colombia during the phases of ENSO. During La Niña (El Niño), GS is strong (weak) for the Caribbean and the CHOCO LLJs whereas GS is moderate (strong) for the Orinoco LLJ. Moreover, moisture advection by the Caribbean and CHOCO LLJs exhibit synchrony with HyAns at 0–2 (2–4) months-lags over north-western Colombia and the Orinoco LLJ moisture advection synchronizes with HyAns at similar month-lags over the Amazon region of Colombia. Furthermore, our results suggest a strong (weak) GS between negative (positive) Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) anomalies in the Eastern Pacific and rainfall anomalies in Colombia. In contrast, GS is strong (weak) for positive (negative) SST anomalies in the Central Pacific. Our GS results contribute to advance our understanding on the regional effects of both phases of ENSO in Colombia, whose socio-economical, environmental and ecological impacts cannot be overstated. This work provides a novel approach that reveals new insights into the impact of ENSO on northern South America. © Copyright © 2020 Salas, Poveda, Mesa and Marwan.
- ItemInfluence of Sound on Empirical Brain Networks(Lausanne : Frontiers Media, 2021) Sawicki, Jakub; Schöll, EckehardWe analyze the influence of an external sound source in a network of FitzHugh–Nagumo oscillators with empirical structural connectivity measured in healthy human subjects. We report synchronization patterns, induced by the frequency of the sound source. We show that the level of synchrony can be enhanced by choosing the frequency of the sound source and its amplitude as control parameters for synchronization patterns. We discuss a minimum model elucidating the modalities of the influence of music on the human brain.
- ItemSynchronization Patterns in Modular Neuronal Networks: A Case Study of C. elegans(Lausanne : Frontiers Media, 2019) Pournaki, Armin; Merfort, Leon; Ruiz, Jorge; Kouvaris, Nikos E.; Hövel, Philipp; Hizanidis, JohanneWe investigate synchronization patterns and chimera-like states in the modular multilayer topology of the connectome of Caenorhabditis elegans. In the special case of a designed network with two layers, one with electrical intra-community links and one with chemical inter-community links, chimera-like states are known to exist. Aiming at a more biological approach based on the actual connectivity data, we consider a network consisting of two synaptic (electrical and chemical) and one extrasynaptic (wireless) layers. Analyzing the structure and properties of this layered network using Multilayer-Louvain community detection, we identify modules whose nodes are more strongly coupled with each other than with the rest of the network. Based on this topology, we study the dynamics of coupled Hindmarsh-Rose neurons. Emerging synchronization patterns are quantified using the pairwise Euclidean distances between the values of all oscillators, locally within each community and globally across the network. We find a tendency of the wireless coupling to moderate the average coherence of the system: for stronger wireless coupling, the levels of synchronization decrease both locally and globally, and chimera-like states are not favored. By introducing an alternative method to define meaningful communities based on the dynamical correlations of the nodes, we obtain a structure that is dominated by two large communities. This promotes the emergence of chimera-like states and allows to relate the dynamics of the corresponding neurons to biological neuronal functions such as motor activities. © Copyright © 2019 Pournaki, Merfort, Ruiz, Kouvaris, Hövel and Hizanidis.
- ItemEditorial: Recurrence Analysis of Complex Systems Dynamics(Lausanne : Frontiers Media, 2020) beim Graben, Peter; Hutt, Axel; Marwan, Norbert; Uhl, Christian; Webber Jr., Charles L.[No abstract available]