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    Performance of seasonal forecasts for the flowering and veraison of two major Portuguese grapevine varieties
    (Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2023) Yang, Chenyao; Ceglar, Andrej; Menz, Christoph; Martins, Joana; Fraga, Helder; Santos, João A.
    Seasonal phenology forecasts are becoming increasingly demanded by winegrowers and viticulturists. Forecast performance needs to be investigated over space and time before practical applications. We assess seasonal forecast performance (skill, probability and accuracy) in predicting flowering and veraison stages of two representative varieties in Portugal over 1993–2017. The state-of-the-art forecast system ECMWF-SEAS5 provides 7-month seasonal forecasts and is coupled with a locally adapted phenology model. Overall, findings illustrate the dependence of forecast performance on initialization timings, regions and predicting subjects (stages and varieties). Forecast performance improves by delaying the initialization timing and only forecasts initialized on April 1st show better skills than climatology on predicting phenology terciles (early/normal/late). The considerable bias of daily values of seasonal climate predictions can represent the main barrier to accurate forecasts. Better prediction performance is consistently found in Central-Southern regions compared to Northern regions, attributing to an earlier phenology occurrence with a shorter forecast length. Comparable predictive skills between flowering and veraison for both varieties imply better predictability in summer. Consequently, promising seasonal phenology predictions are foreseen in Central-Southern wine regions using forecasts initialized on April 1st with approximately 1–2/3–4 months lead time for flowering/veraison: potential prediction errors are ∼2 weeks, along with an overall moderate forecast skill on categorical events. However, considerable inter-annual variability of forecast performance over the same classified phenology years reflects the substantial influence of climate variability. This may represent the main challenge for reliable forecasts in Mediterranean regions. Recommendations are suggested for methodological innovations and practical applications towards reliable regional phenology forecasts.
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    Atmospheric CO2 availability induces varying responses in net photosynthesis, toxin production and N2 fixation rates in heterocystous filamentous Cyanobacteria (Nostoc and Nodularia)
    (Basel ; Heidelberg : Springer, 2021) Wannicke, Nicola; Herrmann, Achim; Gehringer, Michelle M.
    Heterocystous Cyanobacteria of the genus Nodularia form major blooms in brackish waters, while terrestrial Nostoc species occur worldwide, often associated in biological soil crusts. Both genera, by virtue of their ability to fix N2 and conduct oxygenic photosynthesis, contribute significantly to global primary productivity. Select Nostoc and Nodularia species produce the hepatotoxin nodularin and whether its production will change under climate change conditions needs to be assessed. In light of this, the effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 availability on growth, carbon and N2 fixation as well as nodularin production were investigated in toxin and non-toxin producing species of both genera. Results highlighted the following:Biomass and volume specific biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) rates were respectively almost six and 17 fold higher in the aquatic Nodularia species compared to the terrestrial Nostoc species tested, under elevated CO2 conditions.There was a direct correlation between elevated CO2 and decreased dry weight specific cellular nodularin content in a diazotrophically grown terrestrial Nostoc species, and the aquatic Nodularia species, regardless of nitrogen availability.Elevated atmospheric CO2 levels were correlated to a reduction in biomass specific BNF rates in non-toxic Nodularia species.Nodularin producers exhibited stronger stimulation of net photosynthesis rates (NP) and growth (more positive Cohen’s d) and less stimulation of dark respiration and BNF per volume compared to non-nodularin producers under elevated CO2 levels. This study is the first to provide information on NP and nodularin production under elevated atmospheric CO2 levels for Nodularia and Nostoc species under nitrogen replete and diazotrophic conditions.
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    Modeling, simulation, and optimization of geothermal energy production from hot sedimentary aquifers
    (New York, NY [u.a.] : Springer Science + Business Media B.V., 2020) Blank, Laura; Rioseco, Ernesto Meneses; Caiazzo, Alfonso; Wilbrandt, Ulrich
    Geothermal district heating development has been gaining momentum in Europe with numerous deep geothermal installations and projects currently under development. With the increasing density of geothermal wells, questions related to the optimal and sustainable reservoir exploitation become more and more important. A quantitative understanding of the complex thermo-hydraulic interaction between tightly deployed geothermal wells in heterogeneous temperature and permeability fields is key for a maximum sustainable use of geothermal resources. Motivated by the geological settings of the Upper Jurassic aquifer in the Greater Munich region, we develop a computational model based on finite element analysis and gradient-free optimization to simulate groundwater flow and heat transport in hot sedimentary aquifers, and numerically investigate the optimal positioning and spacing of multi-well systems. Based on our numerical simulations, net energy production from deep geothermal reservoirs in sedimentary basins by smart geothermal multi-well arrangements provides significant amounts of energy to meet heat demand in highly urbanized regions. Our results show that taking into account heterogeneous permeability structures and a variable reservoir temperature may drastically affect the results in the optimal configuration. We demonstrate that the proposed numerical framework is able to efficiently handle generic geometrical and geological configurations, and can be thus flexibly used in the context of multi-variable optimization problems. Hence, this numerical framework can be used to assess the extractable geothermal energy from heterogeneous deep geothermal reservoirs by the optimized deployment of smart multi-well systems. © 2020, The Author(s).
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    Recurrent Governance Challenges in the Implementation and Alignment of Flood Risk Management Strategies: a Review
    (Dordrecht [u.a.] : Springer Science + Business Media B.V, 2016) Dieperink, C.; Hegger, D.L.T; Bakker, M.H.N.; Kundzewicz, Z.W.; Green, C.; Driessen, P.P.J.
    In Europe increasing flood risks challenge societies to diversify their Flood Risk Management Strategies (FRMSs). Such a diversification implies that actors not only focus on flood defence, but also and simultaneously on flood risk prevention, mitigation, preparation and recovery. There is much literature on the implementation of specific strategies and measures as well as on flood risk governance more generally. What is lacking, though, is a clear overview of the complex set of governance challenges which may result from a diversification and alignment of FRM strategies. This paper aims to address this knowledge gap. It elaborates on potential processes and mechanisms for coordinating the activities and capacities of actors that are involved on different levels and in different sectors of flood risk governance, both concerning the implementation of individual strategies and the coordination of the overall set of strategies. It identifies eight overall coordination mechanisms that have proven to be useful in this respect.