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    Water resources planning in the Upper Niger River basin: Are there gaps between water demand and supply?
    (Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2019) Liersch, Stefan; Fournet, Samuel; Koch, Hagen; Djibo, Abdouramane Gado; Reinhardt, Julia; Kortlandt, Joyce; Van Weert, Frank; Seidou, Ousmane; Klop, Erik; Baker, Chris; Hattermann, Fred F.
    Study region: The Upper Niger and Bani River basins in West Africa. Study focus: The growing demand for food, water, and energy led Mali and Guinea to develop ambitious hydropower and irrigation plans, including the construction of a new dam and the extension of irrigation schemes. These two developments will take place upstream of sensible ecosystem hotspots while the feasibility of development plans in terms of water availability and sustainability is questionable. Where agricultural development in past decades focused mainly on intensifying dry-season crops cultivation, future plans include extension in both the dry and wet seasons. New hydrological insights for the region: Today's irrigation demand corresponds to 7% of the average annual Niger discharge and could account to one third in 2045. An extension of irrigated agriculture is possible in the wet season, while extending dry-season cropping would be largely compromised with the one major existing Sélingué dam. An additional large Fomi or Moussako dam would not completely satisfy dry-season irrigation demands in the 2045 scenario but would reduce the estimated supply gap from 36% to 14%. However, discharge peaks may decrease by 40% reducing the inundated area in the Inner Niger Delta by 21%, while average annual discharge decreases by 30%. Sustainable development should therefore consider investments in water-saving irrigation and management practices to enhance the feasibility of the envisaged irrigation plans instead of completely relying on the construction of a flow regime altering dam. © 2019 The Authors
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    Climate change impact on regional floods in the Carpathian region
    (Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2019) Didovets, Iulii; Krysanova, Valentina; Bürger, Gerd; Snizhko, Sergiy; Balabukh, Vira; Bronstert, Axel
    Study region: Tisza and Prut catchments, originating on the slopes of the Carpathian mountains. Study focus: The study reported here investigates (i) climate change impacts on flood risk in the region, and (ii) uncertainty related to hydrological modelling, downscaling techniques and climate projections. The climate projections used in the study were derived from five GCMs, downscaled either dynamically with RCMs or with the statistical downscaling model XDS. The resulting climate change scenarios were applied to drive the eco-hydrological model SWIM, which was calibrated and validated for the catchments in advance using observed climate and hydrological data. The changes in the 30-year flood hazards and 98 and 95 percentiles of discharge were evaluated for the far future period (2071–2100) in comparison with the reference period (1981–2010). New hydrological insights for the region: The majority of model outputs under RCP 4.5 show a small to strong increase of the 30-year flood level in the Tisza ranging from 4.5% to 62%, and moderate increase in the Prut ranging from 11% to 22%. The impact results under RCP 8.5 are more uncertain with changes in both directions due to high uncertainties in GCM-RCM climate projections, downscaling methods and the low density of available climate stations. © 2019 The Authors
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    Revisiting economic burdens of malaria in the face of climate change: a conceptual analysis for Ethiopia
    (Bradford : Emerald, 2020) Yalew, Amsalu Woldie
    Purpose: Climate change affects the geographic and seasonal range of malaria incidence, especially, in poor tropical countries. This paper aims to attempt to conceptualize the potential economic repercussions of such effects with its focus on Ethiopia. Design/methodology/approach: The paper is conceptual and descriptive in its design. It first reviews existing literature and evidence on the economic burdens of malaria, and the impacts of climate change on malaria disease. It then draws the economic implications of the expected malaria risk under the future climate. This is accompanied by a discussion on a set of methods that can be used to quantify the economic effects of malaria with or without climate change. Findings: A review of available evidence shows that climate change is likely to increase the geographic and seasonal range of malaria incidence in Ethiopia. The economic consequences of even a marginal increase in malaria risk will be substantial as one considers the projected impacts of climate change through other channels, the current population exposed to malaria risk and the country’s health system, economic structure and level of investment. The potential effects have the potency to require more household and public spending for health, to perpetuate poverty and inequality and to strain agricultural and regional development. Originality/value: This paper sheds light on the economic implications of climate change impacts on malaria, particularly, in Agrarian countries laying in the tropics. It illustrates how such impacts will interact with other impact channels of climate change, and thus evolve to influence the macro-economy. The paper also proposes a set of methods that can be used to quantify the potential economic effects of malaria. The paper seeks to stimulate future research on this important topic which rather has been neglected. © 2020, Amsalu Woldie Yalew.