2018, Calov, Reinhard, Beyer, Sebastian, Greve, Ralf, Beckmann, Johanna, Willeit, Matteo, Kleiner, Thomas, Rückamp, Martin, Humbert, Angelika, Ganopolski, Andrey

We introduce the coupled model of the Greenland glacial system IGLOO 1.0, including the polythermal ice sheet model SICOPOLIS (version 3.3) with hybrid dynamics, the model of basal hydrology HYDRO and a parameterization of submarine melt for marine-terminated outlet glaciers. The aim of this glacial system model is to gain a better understanding of the processes important for the future contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to sea level rise under future climate change scenarios. The ice sheet is initialized via a relaxation towards observed surface elevation, imposing the palaeo-surface temperature over the last glacial cycle. As a present-day reference, we use the 1961-1990 standard climatology derived from simulations of the regional atmosphere model MAR with ERA reanalysis boundary conditions. For the palaeo-part of the spin-up, we add the temperature anomaly derived from the GRIP ice core to the years 1961-1990 average surface temperature field. For our projections, we apply surface temperature and surface mass balance anomalies derived from RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios created by MAR with boundary conditions from simulations with three CMIP5 models. The hybrid ice sheet model is fully coupled with the model of basal hydrology. With this model and the MAR scenarios, we perform simulations to estimate the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to future sea level rise until the end of the 21st and 23rd centuries. Further on, the impact of elevation-surface mass balance feedback, introduced via the MAR data, on future sea level rise is inspected. In our projections, we found the Greenland ice sheet to contribute between 1.9 and 13.0 cm to global sea level rise until the year 2100 and between 3.5 and 76.4 cm until the year 2300, including our simulated additional sea level rise due to elevation-surface mass balance feedback. Translated into additional sea level rise, the strength of this feedback in the year 2100 varies from 0.4 to 1.7 cm, and in the year 2300 it ranges from 1.7 to 21.8 cm. Additionally, taking the Helheim and Store glaciers as examples, we investigate the role of ocean warming and surface runoff change for the melting of outlet glaciers. It shows that ocean temperature and subglacial discharge are about equally important for the melting of the examined outlet glaciers.

2016, Graczyk, D., Kundzewicz, Z.W.

2020, Cornford, Stephen L., Seroussi, Helene, Asay-Davis, Xylar S., Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar, Arthern, Rob, Borstad, Chris, Christmann, Julia, dos Santos, Thiago Dias, Feldmann, Johannes, Goldberg, Daniel, Hoffman, Matthew J., Humbert, Angelika, Kleiner, Thomas, Leguy, Gunter, Lipscomb, William H., Merino, Nacho, Durand, Gaël, Morlighem, Mathieu, Pollard, David, Rückamp, Martin, Williams, C. Rosie, Yu, Hongju

We present the result of the third Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project, MISMIP+. MISMIP+ is intended to be a benchmark for ice-flow models which include fast sliding marine ice streams and floating ice shelves and in particular a treatment of viscous stress that is sufficient to model buttressing, where upstream ice flow is restrained by a downstream ice shelf. A set of idealized experiments first tests that models are able to maintain a steady state with the grounding line located on a retrograde slope due to buttressing and then explore scenarios where a reduction in that buttressing causes ice stream acceleration, thinning, and grounding line retreat. The majority of participating models passed the first test and then produced similar responses to the loss of buttressing. We find that the most important distinction between models in this particular type of simulation is in the treatment of sliding at the bed, with other distinctions - notably the difference between the simpler and more complete treatments of englacial stress but also the differences between numerical methods - taking a secondary role. © 2020 Wolters Kluwer Medknow Publications. All rights reserved.

2019, von Jeetze, Patrick José, Zarebanadkouki, Mohsen, Carminati, Andrea

A common assumption in models of water flow from soil to root is that the soil can be described in terms of its representative or effective behavior. Microscale heterogeneity and structure are thereby replaced by effective descriptions, and their role in flow processes at the root-soil interface is neglected. Here the aim was to explore whether a detailed characterization of the microscale heterogeneity at the scale of a single root impacts the relation between flow rate and pressure gradient. Numerical simulations of water flow toward a root surface were carried out in a two-dimensional domain with a randomized configuration of spatially variable unsaturated hydraulic conductivities and varying boundary conditions, that is, increasing and decreasing root water uptake rates. By employing Matheron's method, the soil hydraulic properties were varied, while the effective hydraulic conductivity (corresponding to the geometric mean) remained unchanged. Results show that domains with a uniform conductivity could not capture important features of water flow and pressure distribution in spatially variable domains. Specifically, increasing heterogeneity at the root-soil interface allowed to sustain higher root water uptake rates but caused a slower recovery in xylem suction after transpiration ceased. The significance of this is that, under critical conditions, when pressure gradients and flow rates are high, microscale heterogeneity may become an important determinant and should not be neglected in adequate descriptions of water flow from soil to root in dry soil.

2005, Lübken, Franz-Josef

[no abstract available]

2012, Tekken, V., Kropp, J.P.

Many agriculture-based economies are increasingly under stress from climate change and socio-economic pressures. The excessive exploitation of natural resources still represents the standard procedure to achieve socio-economic development. In the area of the Moulouya river basin, Morocco, natural water availability represents a key resource for all economic activities. Agriculture represents the most important sector, and frequently occurring water deficits are aggravated by climate change. On the basis of historical trends taken from CRU TS 2.1, this paper analyses the impact of climate change on the per capita water availability under inclusion of population trends. The Climatic Water Balance (CWB) shows a significant decrease for the winter period, causing adverse effects for the main agricultural season. Further, moisture losses due to increasing evapotranspiration rates indicate problems for the annual water budget and groundwater recharge. The per capita blue water availability falls below a minimum threshold of 500 m3 per year, denoting a high regional vulnerability to increasing water scarcity assuming a no-response scenario. Regional development focusing on the water-intense sectors of agriculture and tourism appears to be at risk. Institutional capacities and policies need to address the problem, and the prompt implementation of innovative water production and efficiency measures is recommended.

2007, Erbacher, Jochen, Mutterlose, Jőrg, Wilmsen, Markus, Wonik, Thomas

[No abstract available]

2014, Albrecht, T., Levermann, A.

Floating ice shelves can exert a retentive and hence stabilizing force onto the inland ice sheet of Antarctica. However, this effect has been observed to diminish by the dynamic effects of fracture processes within the protective ice shelves, leading to accelerated ice flow and hence to a sea-level contribution. In order to account for the macroscopic effect of fracture processes on large-scale viscous ice dynamics (i.e., ice-shelf scale) we apply a continuum representation of fractures and related fracture growth into the prognostic Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) and compare the results to observations. To this end we introduce a higher order accuracy advection scheme for the transport of the two-dimensional fracture density across the regular computational grid. Dynamic coupling of fractures and ice flow is attained by a reduction of effective ice viscosity proportional to the inferred fracture density. This formulation implies the possibility of non-linear threshold behavior due to self-amplified fracturing in shear regions triggered by small variations in the fracture-initiation threshold. As a result of prognostic flow simulations, sharp across-flow velocity gradients appear in fracture-weakened regions. These modeled gradients compare well in magnitude and location with those in observed flow patterns. This model framework is in principle expandable to grounded ice streams and provides simple means of investigating climate-induced effects on fracturing (e.g., hydro fracturing) and hence on the ice flow. It further constitutes a physically sound basis for an enhanced fracture-based calving parameterization.

2013, Cusack, Michael, Pérez, NoemÍ, Pey, Jorge, Wiedensohler, Alfred, Alastuey, Andrés

This study focuses on the daily and seasonal variability of particle number size distributions and concentrations, performed at the Montseny (MSY) regional background station in the western Mediterranean from October 2010 to June 2011. Particle number concentrations at MSY were shown to be within range of various other sites across Europe reported in literature, but the seasonality of the particle number size distributions revealed significant differences. The Aitken mode is the dominant particle mode at MSY, with arithmetic mean concentrations of 1698 cm3, followed by the accumulation mode (877 cm3) and the nucleation mode (246 cm3). Concentrations showed a strong seasonal variability with large increases in particle number concentrations observed from the colder to warmer months. The modality of median size distributions was typically bimodal, except under polluted conditions when the size distribution was unimodal. During the colder months, the daily variation of particle number size distributions are strongly influenced by a diurnal breeze system, whereby the Aitken and accumulation modes vary similarly to PM1 and BC mass concentrations, with nocturnal minima and sharp day-time increases owing to the development of a diurnal mountain breeze. Under clean air conditions, high levels of nucleation and lower Aitken mode concentrations were measured, highlighting the importance of new particle formation as a source of particles in the absence of a significant condensation sink. During the warmer months, nucleation mode concentrations were observed to be relatively elevated both under polluted and clean conditions due to increased photochemical reactions, with enhanced subsequent growth owing to elevated concentrations of condensable organic vapours produced from biogenic volatile organic compounds, indicating that nucleation at MSY does not exclusively occur under clean air conditions. Finally, mixing of air masses between polluted and non-polluted boundary layer air, and brief changes in the air mass being sampled gave rise to unusual particle number size distributions, with specific cases of such behaviour discussed at length.

2018, Polom, Ulrich, Alrshdan, Hussam, Al-Halbouni, Djamil, Holohan, Eoghan P., Dahm, Torsten, Sawarieh, Ali, Atallah, Mohamad Y., Krawczyk, Charlotte M.

Near-surface geophysical imaging of alluvial fan settings is a challenging task but crucial for understating geological processes in such settings. The alluvial fan of Ghor Al-Haditha at the southeast shore of the Dead Sea is strongly affected by localized subsidence and destructive sinkhole collapses, with a significantly increasing sinkhole formation rate since ca. 1983. A similar increase is observed also on the western shore of the Dead Sea, in correlation with an ongoing decline in the Dead Sea level. Since different structural models of the upper 50 m of the alluvial fan and varying hypothetical sinkhole processes have been suggested for the Ghor Al-Haditha area in the past, this study aimed to clarify the subsurface characteristics responsible for sinkhole development. For this purpose, high-frequency shear wave reflection vibratory seismic surveys were carried out in the Ghor Al-Haditha area along several crossing and parallel profiles with a total length of 1.8 and 2.1 km in 2013 and 2014, respectively. The sedimentary architecture of the alluvial fan at Ghor Al-Haditha is resolved down to a depth of nearly 200 m at a high resolution and is calibrated with the stratigraphic profiles of two boreholes located inside the survey area. The most surprising result of the survey is the absence of evidence of a thick (> 2–10 m) compacted salt layer formerly suggested to lie at ca. 35–40 m depth. Instead, seismic reflection amplitudes and velocities image with good continuity a complex interlocking of alluvial fan deposits and lacustrine sediments of the Dead Sea between 0 and 200 m depth. Furthermore, the underground section of areas affected by sinkholes is characterized by highly scattering wave fields and reduced seismic interval velocities. We propose that the Dead Sea mud layers, which comprise distributed inclusions or lenses of evaporitic chloride, sulfate, and carbonate minerals as well as clay silicates, become increasingly exposed to unsaturated water as the sea level declines and are consequently destabilized and mobilized by both dissolution and physical erosion in the subsurface. This new interpretation of the underlying cause of sinkhole development is supported by surface observations in nearby channel systems. Overall, this study shows that shear wave seismic reflection technique is a promising method for enhanced near-surface imaging in such challenging alluvial fan settings.