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- ItemModelling the role of fires in the terrestrial carbon balance by incorporating SPITFIRE into the global vegetation model ORCHIDEE - Part 1: Simulating historical global burned area and fire regimes(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2014) Yue, C.; Ciais, P.; Cadule, P.; Thonicke, K.; Archibald, S.; Poulter, B.; Hao, W.M.; Hantson, S.; Mouillot, F.; Friedlingstein, P.; Maignan, F.; Viovy, N.Fire is an important global ecological process that influences the distribution of biomes, with consequences for carbon, water, and energy budgets. Therefore it is impossible to appropriately model the history and future of the terrestrial ecosystems and the climate system without including fire. This study incorporates the process-based prognostic fire module SPITFIRE into the global vegetation model ORCHIDEE, which was then used to simulate burned area over the 20th century. Special attention was paid to the evaluation of other fire regime indicators such as seasonality, fire size and fire length, next to burned area. For 2001–2006, the simulated global spatial extent of fire agrees well with that given by satellite-derived burned area data sets (L3JRC, GLOBCARBON, GFED3.1), and 76–92% of the global burned area is simulated as collocated between the model and observation, depending on which data set is used for comparison. The simulated global mean annual burned area is 346 Mha yr−1, which falls within the range of 287–384 Mha yr−1 as given by the three observation data sets; and is close to the 344 Mha yr−1 by the GFED3.1 data when crop fires are excluded. The simulated long-term trend and variation of burned area agree best with the observation data in regions where fire is mainly driven by climate variation, such as boreal Russia (1930–2009), along with Canada and US Alaska (1950–2009). At the global scale, the simulated decadal fire variation over the 20th century is only in moderate agreement with the historical reconstruction, possibly because of the uncertainties of past estimates, and because land-use change fires and fire suppression are not explicitly included in the model. Over the globe, the size of large fires (the 95th quantile fire size) is underestimated by the model for the regions of high fire frequency, compared with fire patch data as reconstructed from MODIS 500 m burned area data. Two case studies of fire size distribution in Canada and US Alaska, and southern Africa indicate that both number and size of large fires are underestimated, which could be related with short fire patch length and low daily fire size. Future efforts should be directed towards building consistent spatial observation data sets for key parameters of the model in order to constrain the model error at each key step of the fire modelling.
- ItemUsing Meta-Analysis and GIS for Value Transfer and Scaling Up: Valuing Climate Change Induced Losses of European Wetlands(Dordrecht : Springer, 2012) Brander, L.M.; Bräuer, I.; Gerdes, H.; Ghermandi, A.; Kuik, O.; Markandya, A.; Navrud, S.; Nunes, P.A.L.D.; Schaafsma, M.; Vos, H.; Wagtendonk, A.There is growing policy and academic interest in transferring ecosystem service values from existing valuation studies to other ecosystem sites at a large geographic scale. Despite the evident policy demand for this combined transfer and "scaling up" of values, an approach to value transfer that addresses the challenges inherent in assessing ecosystem changes at a national or regional level is not available. This paper proposes a methodology for scaling up ecosystem service values to estimate the welfare effects of ecosystem change at this larger geographical scale. The methodology is illustrated by applying it to value the impact of climate change on European wetlands for the period 2000-2050. The proposed methodology makes use of meta-analysis to produce a value function. The parameters of the value function include spatial variables on wetland size and abundance, GDP per capita, and population. A geographic information system is used to construct a database of wetland sites in the case study region with information on these spatial variables. Site-specific ecosystem service values are subsequently estimated using the meta-analytic value function. The proposed method is shown to enable the adjustment of transferred values to reflect variation in important spatial variables and to account for changes in the stock of ecosystems.
- ItemWater implications of foreign direct investment in Ethiopia's agricultural sector(Basel : MDPI AG, 2012) Bossio, D.; Erkossa, T.; Dile, Y.; McCartney, M.; Killiches, F.; Hoff, H.Ethiopia is often highlighted as a country in which a lot of foreign land acquisition is occurring. The extent to which these investments also constitute significant acquisitions of water is the subject of this paper. It is apparent that water availability is a strong driver of the recent surge of investments in agricultural land globally, and in general the investments occur in countries with significant 'untapped' water resources. Ethiopia is no exception. We propose that the perception of unused and abundant water resources, as captured in dominant narratives, that drives and justifies both foreign and domestic investments, fails to reflect the more complex reality on the ground. Based on new collections of lease information and crop modelling, we estimate the potential additional water use associated with foreign investments at various scales. As a consequence of data limitations our analyses provide only crude estimates of consumptive water use and indicate a wide range of possible water consumption depending on exactly how foreign direct investment (FDI) development scenarios unfold. However, they do suggest that if all planned FDI schemes are implemented and expanded in the near future, additional water consumption is likely to be comparable with existing water use in non-FDI irrigation schemes, and a non-trivial proportion of the country's water resources will be effectively utilised by foreign entities. Hence, additional water use as well as local water scarcity ought to be strong considerations in regulating or pricing land leases. If new investments are to increase local food and water security without compromising local and downstream water availability they should be designed to improve often very low agricultural water productivity, and to safeguard access of local populations to water.
- ItemReport on ICDP Deep Dust workshops: probing continental climate of the late Paleozoic icehouse–greenhouse transition and beyond(Sapporo : IODP, 2020) Soreghan, Gerilyn S.; Beccaletto, Laurent; Benison, Kathleen C.; Bourquin, Sylvie; Feulner, Georg; Hamamura, Natsuko; Hamilton, Michael; Heavens, Nicholas G.; Hinnov, Linda; Huttenlocker, Adam; Looy, Cindy; Pfeifer, Lily S.; Pochat, Stephane; Sardar Abadi, Mehrdad; Zambito, JamesChamberlin and Salisbury's assessment of the Permian a century ago captured the essence of the period: it is an interval of extremes yet one sufficiently recent to have affected a biosphere with near-modern complexity. The events of the Permian - the orogenic episodes, massive biospheric turnovers, both icehouse and greenhouse antitheses, and Mars-analog lithofacies - boggle the imagination and present us with great opportunities to explore Earth system behavior. The ICDP-funded workshops dubbed "Deep Dust," held in Oklahoma (USA) in March 2019 (67 participants from nine countries) and Paris (France) in January 2020 (33 participants from eight countries), focused on clarifying the scientific drivers and key sites for coring continuous sections of Permian continental (loess, lacustrine, and associated) strata that preserve high-resolution records. Combined, the two workshops hosted a total of 91 participants representing 14 countries, with broad expertise. Discussions at Deep Dust 1.0 (USA) focused on the primary research questions of paleoclimate, paleoenvironments, and paleoecology of icehouse collapse and the run-up to the Great Dying and both the modern and Permian deep microbial biosphere. Auxiliary science topics included tectonics, induced seismicity, geothermal energy, and planetary science. Deep Dust 1.0 also addressed site selection as well as scientific approaches, logistical challenges, and broader impacts and included a mid-workshop field trip to view the Permian of Oklahoma. Deep Dust 2.0 focused specifically on honing the European target. The Anadarko Basin (Oklahoma) and Paris Basin (France) represent the most promising initial targets to capture complete or near-complete stratigraphic coverage through continental successions that serve as reference points for western and eastern equatorial Pangaea. © 2020 Copernicus GmbH. All rights reserved.
- ItemCarbon allocation and carbon isotope fluxes in the plant-soil-atmosphere continuum: A review(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2011) Brüggemann, N.; Gessler, A.; Kayler, Z.; Keel, S.G.; Badeck, F.; Barthel, M.; Boeckx, P.; Buchmann, N.; Brugnoli, E.; Esperschütz, J.; Gavrichkova, O.; Ghashghaie, J.; Gomez-Casanovas, N.; Keitel, C.; Knohl, A.; Kuptz, D.; Palacio, S.; Salmon, Y.; Uchida, Y.; Bahn, M.The terrestrial carbon (C) cycle has received increasing interest over the past few decades, however, there is still a lack of understanding of the fate of newly assimilated C allocated within plants and to the soil, stored within ecosystems and lost to the atmosphere. Stable carbon isotope studies can give novel insights into these issues. In this review we provide an overview of an emerging picture of plant-soil-atmosphere C fluxes, as based on C isotope studies, and identify processes determining related C isotope signatures. The first part of the review focuses on isotopic fractionation processes within plants during and after photosynthesis. The second major part elaborates on plant-internal and plant-rhizosphere C allocation patterns at different time scales (diel, seasonal, interannual), including the speed of C transfer and time lags in the coupling of assimilation and respiration, as well as the magnitude and controls of plant-soil C allocation and respiratory fluxes. Plant responses to changing environmental conditions, the functional relationship between the physiological and phenological status of plants and C transfer, and interactions between C, water and nutrient dynamics are discussed. The role of the C counterflow from the rhizosphere to the aboveground parts of the plants, e.g. via CO2 dissolved in the xylem water or as xylem-transported sugars, is highlighted. The third part is centered around belowground C turnover, focusing especially on above- and belowground litter inputs, soil organic matter formation and turnover, production and loss of dissolved organic C, soil respiration and CO2 fixation by soil microbes. Furthermore, plant controls on microbial communities and activity via exudates and litter production as well as microbial community effects on C mineralization are reviewed. A further part of the paper is dedicated to physical interactions between soil CO2 and the soil matrix, such as CO2 diffusion and dissolution processes within the soil profile. Finally, we highlight state-of-the-art stable isotope methodologies and their latest developments. From the presented evidence we conclude that there exists a tight coupling of physical, chemical and biological processes involved in C cycling and C isotope fluxes in the plant-soil-atmosphere system. Generally, research using information from C isotopes allows an integrated view of the different processes involved. However, complex interactions among the range of processes complicate or currently impede the interpretation of isotopic signals in CO2 or organic compounds at the plant and ecosystem level. This review tries to identify present knowledge gaps in correctly interpreting carbon stable isotope signals in the plant-soil-atmosphere system and how future research approaches could contribute to closing these gaps.
- ItemEffects of Climate Change on the Hydrological Cycle in Central and Eastern Europe(Dordrecht : Springer, 2014) Stagl, J.; Mayr, E.; Koch, H.; Hattermann, F.F.; Huang, S.For the management of protected areas knowledge about the water regime plays a very important role, in particular in areas with lakes, wetlands, marches or floodplains. The local hydrological conditions depend widely on temporal and spatial variations of the main components of the hydrologic cycle and physiographic conditions on site. To preserve a favourable conservation status under changing climatic conditions park managers require information about potential impacts of climate change in their area. The following chapter provides an overview of how climate change affects the hydrological regimes in Central and Eastern Europe. The hydrological impacts for the protected areas are area-specific and vary from region to region. Generally, an increase in temperature enhances the moisture holding capacity of the atmosphere and thus, leads to an intensification of the hydrological cycle. Key changes in the hydrological system include alterations in the seasonal distribution, magnitude and duration of precipitation and evapotranspiration. This may lead to changes in the water storage, surface runoff, soil moisture and seasonal snow packs as well as to modifications in the mass balance of Central European glaciers. Partly, water resources management can help to counterbalance effects of climate change on stream flow and water availability.
- ItemMulti-scale event synchronization analysis for unravelling climate processes: A wavelet-based approach(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2017) Agarwal, A.; Marwan, N.; Rathinasamy, M.; Merz, B.; Kurths, J.The temporal dynamics of climate processes are spread across different timescales and, as such, the study of these processes at only one selected timescale might not reveal the complete mechanisms and interactions within and between the (sub-)processes. To capture the non-linear interactions between climatic events, the method of event synchronization has found increasing attention recently. The main drawback with the present estimation of event synchronization is its restriction to analysing the time series at one reference timescale only. The study of event synchronization at multiple scales would be of great interest to comprehend the dynamics of the investigated climate processes. In this paper, the wavelet-based multi-scale event synchronization (MSES) method is proposed by combining the wavelet transform and event synchronization. Wavelets are used extensively to comprehend multi-scale processes and the dynamics of processes across various timescales. The proposed method allows the study of spatio-temporal patterns across different timescales. The method is tested on synthetic and real-world time series in order to check its replicability and applicability. The results indicate that MSES is able to capture relationships that exist between processes at different timescales.
- ItemAntarctic ice sheet response to sudden and sustained ice-shelf collapse (ABUMIP)(Cambridge : Cambridge University Press, 2020) Sun, Sainan; Pattyn, Frank; Simon, Erika G.; Albrecht, Torsten; Cornford, Stephen; Calov, Reinhard; Dumas, Christophe; Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien; Goelzer, Goelzer; Golledge, Nicholas R.; Greve, Ralf; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Humbert, Angelika; Kazmierczak, Elise; Kleiner, Thomas; Leguy, Gunter R.; Lipscomb, William H.; Martin, Daniel; Morlighem, Mathieu; Nowicki, Sophie; Pollard, David; Price, Stephen; Quiquet, Aurélien; Seroussi, Hélène; Schlemm, Tanja; Sutter, Johannes; van de Wal, Roderik S.W.; Winkelmann, Ricarda; Zhang, TongAntarctica's ice shelves modulate the grounded ice flow, and weakening of ice shelves due to climate forcing will decrease their 'buttressing' effect, causing a response in the grounded ice. While the processes governing ice-shelf weakening are complex, uncertainties in the response of the grounded ice sheet are also difficult to assess. The Antarctic BUttressing Model Intercomparison Project (ABUMIP) compares ice-sheet model responses to decrease in buttressing by investigating the 'end-member' scenario of total and sustained loss of ice shelves. Although unrealistic, this scenario enables gauging the sensitivity of an ensemble of 15 ice-sheet models to a total loss of buttressing, hence exhibiting the full potential of marine ice-sheet instability. All models predict that this scenario leads to multi-metre (1-12 m) sea-level rise over 500 years from present day. West Antarctic ice sheet collapse alone leads to a 1.91-5.08 m sea-level rise due to the marine ice-sheet instability. Mass loss rates are a strong function of the sliding/friction law, with plastic laws cause a further destabilization of the Aurora and Wilkes Subglacial Basins, East Antarctica. Improvements to marine ice-sheet models have greatly reduced variability between modelled ice-sheet responses to extreme ice-shelf loss, e.g. compared to the SeaRISE assessments. Copyright © The Author(s) 2020.
- ItemImpacts of temperature extremes on European vegetation during the growing season(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2017) Baumbach, Lukas; Siegmund, Jonatan F.; Mittermeier, Magdalena; Donner, Reik V.Temperature is a key factor controlling plant growth and vitality in the temperate climates of the mid-latitudes like in vast parts of the European continent. Beyond the effect of average conditions, the timings and magnitudes of temperature extremes play a particularly crucial role, which needs to be better understood in the context of projected future rises in the frequency and/or intensity of such events. In this work, we employ event coincidence analysis (ECA) to quantify the likelihood of simultaneous occurrences of extremes in daytime land surface temperature anomalies (LSTAD) and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). We perform this analysis for entire Europe based upon remote sensing data, differentiating between three periods corresponding to different stages of plant development during the growing season. In addition, we analyze the typical elevation and land cover type of the regions showing significantly large event coincidences rates to identify the most severely affected vegetation types. Our results reveal distinct spatio-temporal impact patterns in terms of extraordinarily large co-occurrence rates between several combinations of temperature and NDVI extremes. Croplands are among the most frequently affected land cover types, while elevation is found to have only a minor effect on the spatial distribution of corresponding extreme weather impacts. These findings provide important insights into the vulnerability of European terrestrial ecosystems to extreme temperature events and demonstrate how event-based statistics like ECA can provide a valuable perspective on environmental nexuses.
- ItemA new climate dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2012) Heinke, J.; Ostberg, S.; Schaphoff, S.; Frieler, K.; Müller, C.; Gerten, D.; Meinshausen, M.; Lucht, W.Interactions between food demand, biomass energy and forest preservation are driving both food prices and land-use changes, regionally and globally. This study presents a new model called Nexus Land-Use version 1.0 which describes these interactions through a generic representation of agricultural intensification mechanisms within agricultural lands. The Nexus Land-Use model equations combine biophysics and economics into a single coherent framework to calculate crop yields, food prices, and resulting pasture and cropland areas within 12 regions inter-connected with each other by international trade. The representation of cropland and livestock production systems in each region relies on three components: (i) a biomass production function derived from the crop yield response function to inputs such as industrial fertilisers; (ii) a detailed representation of the livestock production system subdivided into an intensive and an extensive component, and (iii) a spatially explicit distribution of potential (maximal) crop yields prescribed from the Lund-Postdam-Jena global vegetation model for managed Land (LPJmL). The economic principles governing decisions about land-use and intensification are adapted from the Ricardian rent theory, assuming cost minimisation for farmers. In contrast to the other land-use models linking economy and biophysics, crops are aggregated as a representative product in calories and intensification for the representative crop is a non-linear function of chemical inputs. The model equations and parameter values are first described in details. Then, idealised scenarios exploring the impact of forest preservation policies or rising energy price on agricultural intensification are described, and their impacts on pasture and cropland areas are investigated.