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DDC: 550 × Publisher: Göttingen : Copernicus Publ. × Subject: numerical model ×

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Now showing 1 - 5 of 5
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    Distinct element geomechanical modelling of the formation of sinkhole clusters within large-scale karstic depressions
    (Göttingen : Copernicus Publ., 2019) Al-Halbouni, Djamil; Holohan, Eoghan P.; Taheri, Abbas; Watson, Robert A.; Polom, Ulrich; Schöpfer, Martin P. J.; Emam, Sacha; Dahm, Torsten
    The 2-D distinct element method (DEM) code (PFC2D_V5) is used here to simulate the evolution of subsidence-related karst landforms, such as single and clustered sinkholes, and associated larger-scale depressions. Subsurface material in the DEM model is removed progressively to produce an array of cavities; this simulates a network of subsurface groundwater conduits growing by chemical/mechanical erosion. The growth of the cavity array is coupled mechanically to the gravitationally loaded surroundings, such that cavities can grow also in part by material failure at their margins, which in the limit can produce individual collapse sinkholes. Two end-member growth scenarios of the cavity array and their impact on surface subsidence were examined in the models: (1) cavity growth at the same depth level and growth rate; (2) cavity growth at progressively deepening levels with varying growth rates. These growth scenarios are characterised by differing stress patterns across the cavity array and its overburden, which are in turn an important factor for the formation of sinkholes and uvala-like depressions. For growth scenario (1), a stable compression arch is established around the entire cavity array, hindering sinkhole collapse into individual cavities and favouring block-wise, relatively even subsidence across the whole cavity array. In contrast, for growth scenario (2), the stress system is more heterogeneous, such that local stress concentrations exist around individual cavities, leading to stress interactions and local wall/overburden fractures. Consequently, sinkhole collapses occur in individual cavities, which results in uneven, differential subsidence within a larger-scale depression. Depending on material properties of the cavity-hosting material and the overburden, the larger-scale depression forms either by sinkhole coalescence or by widespread subsidence linked geometrically to the entire cavity array. The results from models with growth scenario (2) are in close agreement with surface morphological and subsurface geophysical observations from an evaporite karst area on the eastern shore of the Dead Sea.
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    Development of a numerical workflow based on μ-CT imaging for the determination of capillary pressure–saturation-specific interfacial area relationship in 2-phase flow pore-scale porous-media systems: a case study on Heletz sandstone
    (Göttingen : Copernicus Publ., 2016) Peche, Aaron; Halisch, Matthias; Bogdan Tatomir, Alexandru; Sauter, Martin
    In this case study, we present the implementation of a finite element method (FEM)-based numerical pore-scale model that is able to track and quantify the propagating fluid–fluid interfacial area on highly complex micro-computed tomography (μ-CT)-obtained geometries. Special focus is drawn to the relationship between reservoir-specific capillary pressure (pc), wetting phase saturation (Sw) and interfacial area (awn). The basis of this approach is high-resolution μ-CT images representing the geometrical characteristics of a georeservoir sample. The successfully validated 2-phase flow model is based on the Navier–Stokes equations, including the surface tension force, in order to consider capillary effects for the computation of flow and the phase-field method for the emulation of a sharp fluid–fluid interface. In combination with specialized software packages, a complex high-resolution modelling domain can be obtained. A numerical workflow based on representative elementary volume (REV)-scale pore-size distributions is introduced. This workflow aims at the successive modification of model and model set-up for simulating, such as a type of 2-phase problem on asymmetric μ-CT-based model domains. The geometrical complexity is gradually increased, starting from idealized pore geometries until complex μ-CT-based pore network domains, whereas all domains represent geostatistics of the REV-scale core sample pore-size distribution. Finally, the model can be applied to a complex μ-CT-based model domain and the pc–Sw–awn relationship can be computed.
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    The effect of univariate bias adjustment on multivariate hazard estimates
    (Göttingen : Copernicus Publ., 2019) Zscheischler, Jakob; Fischer, Erich M.; Lange, Stefan
    Bias adjustment is often a necessity in estimating climate impacts because impact models usually rely on unbiased climate information, a requirement that climate model outputs rarely fulfil. Most currently used statistical bias-adjustment methods adjust each climate variable separately, even though impacts usually depend on multiple potentially dependent variables. Human heat stress, for instance, depends on temperature and relative humidity, two variables that are often strongly correlated. Whether univariate bias-adjustment methods effectively improve estimates of impacts that depend on multiple drivers is largely unknown, and the lack of long-term impact data prevents a direct comparison between model outputs and observations for many climate-related impacts. Here we use two hazard indicators, heat stress and a simple fire risk indicator, as proxies for more sophisticated impact models. We show that univariate bias-adjustment methods such as univariate quantile mapping often cannot effectively reduce biases in multivariate hazard estimates. In some cases, it even increases biases. These cases typically occur (i) when hazards depend equally strongly on more than one climatic driver, (ii) when models exhibit biases in the dependence structure of drivers and (iii) when univariate biases are relatively small. Using a perfect model approach, we further quantify the uncertainty in bias-adjusted hazard indicators due to internal variability and show how imperfect bias adjustment can amplify this uncertainty. Both issues can be addressed successfully with a statistical bias adjustment that corrects the multivariate dependence structure in addition to the marginal distributions of the climate drivers. Our results suggest that currently many modeled climate impacts are associated with uncertainties related to the choice of bias adjustment. We conclude that in cases where impacts depend on multiple dependent climate variables these uncertainties can be reduced using statistical bias-adjustment approaches that correct the variables' multivariate dependence structure. © 2019 Copernicus GmbH. All rights reserved.
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    Two-dimensional numerical investigations on the termination of bilinear flow in fractures
    (Göttingen : Copernicus Publ., 2013) Ortiz R., A.E.; Jung, R.; Renner, J.
    Bilinear flow occurs when fluid is drained from a permeable matrix by producing it through an enclosed fracture of finite conductivity intersecting a well along its axis. The terminology reflects the combination of two approximately linear flow regimes: one in the matrix with flow essentially perpendicular to the fracture, and one along the fracture itself associated with the non-negligible pressure drop in it. We investigated the characteristics, in particular the termination, of bilinear flow by numerical modeling allowing for an examination of the entire flow field without prescribing the flow geometry in the matrix. Fracture storage capacity was neglected relying on previous findings that bilinear flow is associated with a quasi-steady flow in the fracture. Numerical results were generalized by dimensionless presentation. Definition of a dimensionless time that, other than in previous approaches, does not use geometrical parameters of the fracture permitted identifying the dimensionless well pressure for the infinitely long fracture as the master curve for type curves of all fractures with finite length from the beginning of bilinear flow up to fully developed radial flow. In log–log scale the master curve's logarithmic derivative initially follows a 1/4-slope straight line (characteristic for bilinear flow) and gradually bends into a horizontal line (characteristic for radial flow) for long times. During the bilinear flow period, isobars normalized to well pressure propagate with the fourth and second root of time in fracture and matrix, respectively. The width-to-length ratio of the pressure field increases proportional to the fourth root of time during the bilinear period, and starts to deviate from this relation close to the deviation of well pressure and its derivative from their fourth-root-of-time relations. At this time, isobars are already significantly inclined with respect to the fracture. The type curves of finite fractures all deviate counterclockwise from the master curve instead of clockwise or counterclockwise from the 1/4-slope straight line as previously proposed. The counterclockwise deviation from the master curve was identified as the arrival of a normalized isobar reflected at the fracture tip 16 times earlier. Nevertheless, two distinct regimes were found in regard to pressure at the fracture tip when bilinear flow ends. For dimensionless fracture conductivities TD < 1, a significant pressure increase is not observed at the fracture tip until bilinear flow is succeeded by radial flow at a fixed dimensionless time. For TD > 10, the pressure at the fracture tip has reached substantial fractions of the associated change in well pressure when the flow field transforms towards intermittent formation linear flow at times that scale inversely with the fourth power of dimensionless fracture conductivity. Our results suggest that semi-log plots of normalized well pressure provide a means for the determination of hydraulic parameters of fracture and matrix after shorter test duration than for conventional analysis.
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    Overview: The Baltic Earth Assessment Reports (BEAR)
    (Göttingen : Copernicus Publ., 2023) Meier, H. E. Markus; Reckermann, Marcus; Langner, Joakim; Smith, Ben; Didenkulova, Ira
    Baltic Earth is an independent research network of scientists from all Baltic Sea countries that promotes regional Earth system research. Within the framework of this network, the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports (BEARs) were produced in the period 2019-2022. These are a collection of 10 review articles summarising current knowledge on the environmental and climatic state of the Earth system in the Baltic Sea region and its changes in the past (palaeoclimate), present (historical period with instrumental observations) and prospective future (until 2100) caused by natural variability, climate change and other human activities. The division of topics among articles follows the grand challenges and selected themes of the Baltic Earth Science Plan, such as the regional water, biogeochemical and carbon cycles; extremes and natural hazards; sea-level dynamics and coastal erosion; marine ecosystems; coupled Earth system models; scenario simulations for the regional atmosphere and the Baltic Sea; and climate change and impacts of human use. Each review article contains an introduction, the current state of knowledge, knowledge gaps, conclusions and key messages; the latter are the bases on which recommendations for future research are made. Based on the BEARs, Baltic Earth has published an information leaflet on climate change in the Baltic Sea as part of its outreach work, which has been published in two languages so far, and organised conferences and workshops for stakeholders, in collaboration with the Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission (Helsinki Commission, HELCOM).