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- ItemComplex refractive indices of Saharan dust samples at visible and near UV wavelengths: A laboratory study(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2012) Wagner, R.; Ajtai, T.; Kandler, K.; Lieke, K.; Linke, C.; Müller, T.; Schnaiter, M.; Vragel, M.We have retrieved the wavelength-dependent imaginary parts of the complex refractive index for five different Saharan dust aerosol particles of variable mineralogical composition at wavelengths between 305 and 955 nm. The dust particles were generated by dispersing soil samples into a laboratory aerosol chamber, typically yielding particle sizes with mean diameters ranging from 0.3 to 0.4 μm and maximum diameters from 2 to 4 μm. The extinction and absorption coefficients as well as the number size distribution of the dust particles were simultaneously measured by various established techniques. An inversion scheme based on a spheroidal dust model was employed to deduce the refractive indices. The retrieved imaginary parts of the complex refractive index were in the range from 0.003 to 0.005, 0.005 to 0.011, and 0.016 to 0.050 at the wavelengths 955, 505, and 305 nm. The hematite content of the dust particles was determined by electron-microscopical single particle analysis. Hematite volume fractions in the range from 1.1 to 2.7% were found for the different dusts, a range typical for atmospheric mineral dust. We have performed a sensitivity study to assess how accurately the retrieved imaginary refractive indices could be reproduced by calculations with mixing rule approximations using the experimentally determined hematite contents as input.
- ItemA new climate dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2012) Heinke, J.; Ostberg, S.; Schaphoff, S.; Frieler, K.; Müller, C.; Gerten, D.; Meinshausen, M.; Lucht, W.Interactions between food demand, biomass energy and forest preservation are driving both food prices and land-use changes, regionally and globally. This study presents a new model called Nexus Land-Use version 1.0 which describes these interactions through a generic representation of agricultural intensification mechanisms within agricultural lands. The Nexus Land-Use model equations combine biophysics and economics into a single coherent framework to calculate crop yields, food prices, and resulting pasture and cropland areas within 12 regions inter-connected with each other by international trade. The representation of cropland and livestock production systems in each region relies on three components: (i) a biomass production function derived from the crop yield response function to inputs such as industrial fertilisers; (ii) a detailed representation of the livestock production system subdivided into an intensive and an extensive component, and (iii) a spatially explicit distribution of potential (maximal) crop yields prescribed from the Lund-Postdam-Jena global vegetation model for managed Land (LPJmL). The economic principles governing decisions about land-use and intensification are adapted from the Ricardian rent theory, assuming cost minimisation for farmers. In contrast to the other land-use models linking economy and biophysics, crops are aggregated as a representative product in calories and intensification for the representative crop is a non-linear function of chemical inputs. The model equations and parameter values are first described in details. Then, idealised scenarios exploring the impact of forest preservation policies or rising energy price on agricultural intensification are described, and their impacts on pasture and cropland areas are investigated.
- ItemPALADYN v1.0, a comprehensive land surface-vegetation-carbon cycle model of intermediate complexity(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2016) Willeit, Matteo; Ganopolski, AndreyPALADYN is presented; it is a new comprehensive and computationally efficient land surface–vegetation–carbon cycle model designed to be used in Earth system models of intermediate complexity for long-term simulations and paleoclimate studies. The model treats in a consistent manner the interaction between atmosphere, terrestrial vegetation and soil through the fluxes of energy, water and carbon. Energy, water and carbon are conserved. PALADYN explicitly treats permafrost, both in physical processes and as an important carbon pool. It distinguishes nine surface types: five different vegetation types, bare soil, land ice, lake and ocean shelf. Including the ocean shelf allows the treatment of continuous changes in sea level and shelf area associated with glacial cycles. Over each surface type, the model solves the surface energy balance and computes the fluxes of sensible, latent and ground heat and upward shortwave and longwave radiation. The model includes a single snow layer. Vegetation and bare soil share a single soil column. The soil is vertically discretized into five layers where prognostic equations for temperature, water and carbon are consistently solved. Phase changes of water in the soil are explicitly considered. A surface hydrology module computes precipitation interception by vegetation, surface runoff and soil infiltration. The soil water equation is based on Darcy's law. Given soil water content, the wetland fraction is computed based on a topographic index. The temperature profile is also computed in the upper part of ice sheets and in the ocean shelf soil. Photosynthesis is computed using a light use efficiency model. Carbon assimilation by vegetation is coupled to the transpiration of water through stomatal conductance. PALADYN includes a dynamic vegetation module with five plant functional types competing for the grid cell share with their respective net primary productivity. PALADYN distinguishes between mineral soil carbon, peat carbon, buried carbon and shelf carbon. Each soil carbon type has its own soil carbon pools generally represented by a litter, a fast and a slow carbon pool in each soil layer. Carbon can be redistributed between the layers by vertical diffusion and advection. For the vegetated macro surface type, decomposition is a function of soil temperature and soil moisture. Carbon in permanently frozen layers is assigned a long turnover time which effectively locks carbon in permafrost. Carbon buried below ice sheets and on flooded ocean shelves is treated differently. The model also includes a dynamic peat module. PALADYN includes carbon isotopes 13C and 14C, which are tracked through all carbon pools. Isotopic discrimination is modelled only during photosynthesis. A simple methane module is implemented to represent methane emissions from anaerobic carbon decomposition in wetlands (including peatlands) and flooded ocean shelf. The model description is accompanied by a thorough model evaluation in offline mode for the present day and the historical period.
- ItemConstructing proxy records from age models (COPRA)(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2012) Breitenbach, S.F.M.; Rehfeld, K.; Goswami, B.; Baldin, J.U.L.; Ridley, H.E.; Kennett, D.J.; Prufer, K.M.; Aquino, V.V.; Asmerom, Y.; Polyak, V.J.; Cheng, H.; Kurths, J.; Marwan, N.Reliable age models are fundamental for any palaeoclimate reconstruction. Available interpolation procedures between age control points are often inadequately reported, and very few translate age uncertainties to proxy uncertainties. Most available modeling algorithms do not allow incorporation of layer counted intervals to improve the confidence limits of the age model in question. We present a framework that allows detection and interactive handling of age reversals and hiatuses, depth-age modeling, and proxy-record reconstruction. Monte Carlo simulation and a translation procedure are used to assign a precise time scale to climate proxies and to translate dating uncertainties to uncertainties in the proxy values. The presented framework allows integration of incremental relative dating information to improve the final age model. The free software package COPRA1.0 facilitates easy interactive usage.
- ItemNumerical simulations of mixing conditions and aerosol dynamics in the CERN CLOUD chamber(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2012) Voigtländer, J.; Duplissy, J.; Rondo, L.; Kürten, A.; Stratmann, F.To study the effect of galactic cosmic rays on aerosols and clouds, the Cosmics Leaving OUtdoor Droplets (CLOUD) project was established. Experiments are carried out at a 26.1 m3 tank at CERN (Switzerland). In the experiments, the effect of ionizing radiation on H2SO4 particle formation and growth is investigated. To evaluate the experimental configuration, the experiment was simulated using a coupled multidimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) – particle model. In the model the coupled fields of gas/vapor species, temperature, flow velocity and particle properties were computed to investigate mixing state and mixing times of the CLOUD tank's contents. Simulation results show that a 1-fan configuration, as used in first experiments, may not be sufficient to ensure a homogeneously mixed chamber. To mix the tank properly, two fans and sufficiently high fan speeds are necessary. The 1/e response times for instantaneous changes of wall temperature and saturation ratio were found to be in the order of few minutes. Particle nucleation and growth was also simulated and particle number size distribution properties of the freshly nucleated particles (particle number, mean size, standard deviation of the assumed log-normal distribution) were found to be distributed over the tank's volume similar to the gas species.
- ItemColumnar modelling of nucleation burst evolution in the convective boundary layer - First results from a feasibility study, Part I: Modelling approach(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2006) Hellmuth, O.A high-order modelling approach to interpret "continental-type" particle formation bursts in the anthropogenically influenced convective boundary layer (CBL) is proposed. The model considers third-order closure for planetary boundary layer turbulence, sulphur and ammonia chemistry as well as aerosol dynamics. In Paper I of four papers, previous observations of ultrafine particle evolution are reviewed, model equations are derived, the model setup for a conceptual study on binary and ternary homogeneous nucleation is defined and shortcomings of process parameterisation are discussed. In the subsequent Papers II, III and IV simulation results, obtained within the framework of a conceptual study on the CBL evolution and new particle formation (NPF), will be presented and compared with observational findings.
- ItemTowards global empirical upscaling of FLUXNET eddy covariance observations: Validation of a model tree ensemble approach using a biosphere model(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2009) Jung, M.; Reichstein, M.; Bondeau, A.Global, spatially and temporally explicit estimates of carbon and water fluxes derived from empirical up-scaling eddy covariance measurements would constitute a new and possibly powerful data stream to study the variability of the global terrestrial carbon and water cycle. This paper introduces and validates a machine learning approach dedicated to the upscaling of observations from the current global network of eddy covariance towers (FLUXNET). We present a new model TRee Induction ALgorithm (TRIAL) that performs hierarchical stratification of the data set into units where particular multiple regressions for a target variable hold. We propose an ensemble approach (Evolving tRees with RandOm gRowth, ERROR) where the base learning algorithm is perturbed in order to gain a diverse sequence of different model trees which evolves over time. We evaluate the efficiency of the model tree ensemble (MTE) approach using an artificial data set derived from the Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land (LPJmL) biosphere model. We aim at reproducing global monthly gross primary production as simulated by LPJmL from 1998–2005 using only locations and months where high quality FLUXNET data exist for the training of the model trees. The model trees are trained with the LPJmL land cover and meteorological input data, climate data, and the fraction of absorbed photosynthetic active radiation simulated by LPJmL. Given that we know the "true result" in the form of global LPJmL simulations we can effectively study the performance of the MTE upscaling and associated problems of extrapolation capacity. We show that MTE is able to explain 92% of the variability of the global LPJmL GPP simulations. The mean spatial pattern and the seasonal variability of GPP that constitute the largest sources of variance are very well reproduced (96% and 94% of variance explained respectively) while the monthly interannual anomalies which occupy much less variance are less well matched (41% of variance explained). We demonstrate the substantially improved accuracy of MTE over individual model trees in particular for the monthly anomalies and for situations of extrapolation. We estimate that roughly one fifth of the domain is subject to extrapolation while MTE is still able to reproduce 73% of the LPJmL GPP variability here. This paper presents for the first time a benchmark for a global FLUXNET upscaling approach that will be employed in future studies. Although the real world FLUXNET upscaling is more complicated than for a noise free and reduced complexity biosphere model as presented here, our results show that an empirical upscaling from the current FLUXNET network with MTE is feasible and able to extract global patterns of carbon flux variability.
- ItemHeinrich event 1: An example of dynamical ice-sheet reaction to oceanic changes(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2011) Álvarez-Solas, J.; Montoya, M.; Ritz, C.; Ramstein, G.; Charbit, S.; Dumas, C.; Nisancioglu, K.; Dokken, T.; Ganopolski, A.Heinrich events, identified as enhanced ice-rafted detritus (IRD) in North Atlantic deep sea sediments (Heinrich, 1988; Hemming, 2004) have classically been attributed to Laurentide ice-sheet (LIS) instabilities (MacAyeal, 1993; Calov et al., 2002; Hulbe et al., 2004) and assumed to lead to important disruptions of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and North Atlantic deep water (NADW) formation. However, recent paleoclimate data have revealed that most of these events probably occurred after the AMOC had already slowed down or/and NADW largely collapsed, within about a thousand years (Hall et al., 2006; Hemming, 2004; Jonkers et al., 2010; Roche et al., 2004), implying that the initial AMOC reduction could not have been caused by the Heinrich events themselves. Here we propose an alternative driving mechanism, specifically for Heinrich event 1 (H1; 18 to 15 ka BP), by which North Atlantic ocean circulation changes are found to have strong impacts on LIS dynamics. By combining simulations with a coupled climate model and a three-dimensional ice sheet model, our study illustrates how reduced NADW and AMOC weakening lead to a subsurface warming in the Nordic and Labrador Seas resulting in rapid melting of the Hudson Strait and Labrador ice shelves. Lack of buttressing by the ice shelves implies a substantial ice-stream acceleration, enhanced ice-discharge and sea level rise, with peak values 500–1500 yr after the initial AMOC reduction. Our scenario modifies the previous paradigm of H1 by solving the paradox of its occurrence during a cold surface period, and highlights the importance of taking into account the effects of oceanic circulation on ice-sheets dynamics in order to elucidate the triggering mechanism of Heinrich events.
- ItemGlacial CO 2 cycle as a succession of key physical and biogeochemical processes(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2012) Brovkin, V.; Ganopolski, A.; Archer, D.; Munhoven, G.During glacial-interglacial cycles, atmospheric CO2 concentration varied by about 100 ppmv in amplitude. While testing mechanisms that have led to the low glacial CO2 level could be done in equilibrium model experiments, an ultimate goal is to explain CO2 changes in transient simulations through the complete glacial-interglacial cycle. The computationally efficient Earth System model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2 is used to simulate global biogeochemistry over the last glacial cycle (126 kyr). The physical core of the model (atmosphere, ocean, land and ice sheets) is driven by orbital changes and reconstructed radiative forcing from greenhouses gases, ice, and aeolian dust. The carbon cycle model is able to reproduce the main features of the CO2 changes: a 50 ppmv CO2 drop during glacial inception, a minimum concentration at the last glacial maximum 80 ppmv lower than the Holocene value, and an abrupt 60 ppmv CO2 rise during the deglaciation. The model deep ocean δ13C also resembles reconstructions from deep-sea cores. The main drivers of atmospheric CO2 evolve in time: changes in sea surface temperatures and in the volume of bottom water of southern origin control atmospheric CO2 during the glacial inception and deglaciation; changes in carbonate chemistry and marine biology are dominant during the first and second parts of the glacial cycle, respectively. These feedback mechanisms could also significantly impact the ultimate climate response to the anthropogenic perturbation.
- ItemModeling of wave-induced irradiance variability in the upper ocean mixed layer(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2012) Hieronymi, M.; Macke, A.; Zielinski, O.A Monte Carlo based radiative transfer model has been developed for calculating the availability of solar radiation within the top 100 m of the ocean. The model is optimized for simulations of spatial high resolution downwelling irradiance Ed fluctuations that arise from the lensing effect of waves at the water surface. In a first step the accuracy of simulation results has been verified by measurements of the oceanic underwater light field and through intercomparison with an established radiative transfer model. Secondly the potential depth-impact of nonlinear shaped single waves, from capillary to swell waves, is assessed by considering the most favorable conditions for light focusing, i.e. monochromatic light at 490 nm, very clear oceanic water with a low chlorophyll a content of 0.1 mg m−3 and high sun elevation. Finally light fields below irregular wave profiles accounting for realistic sea states were simulated. Our simulation results suggest that under open ocean conditions light flashes with 50% irradiance enhancements can appear down to 35 m depth, and light variability in the range of ±10% compared to the mean Ed is still possible in 100 m depth.