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- ItemFire, late frost, nun moth and drought risks in Germany's forests under climate change(Stuttgart : E. Schweizerbart Science Publishers, 2016) Lasch-Born, Petra; Suckow, Felicitas; Gutsch, Martin; Hauf, Ylva; Hoffmann, Peter; Kollas, Chris; Reyer, Christopher P.O.Ongoing climate change affects growth and increases biotic and abiotic threats to Germany's forests. We analysed how these risks develop through the mid-century under a variety of climate change scenarios using the process-based forest model 4C. This model allows the calculation of indicators for fire danger, late frost risk for beech and oak, drought stress and nun moth risk. 4C was driven by a set of 4 simulations of future climate generated with the statistical model STARS and with 10 simulations of future climate based on EURO-CORDEX model simulations for the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 pathways. A set of about 70000 forest stands (Norway spruce, Scots pine, beech, oak, birch), based on the national forest inventory describing 98.4 % of the forest in Germany, was used together with data from a digital soil map. The changes and the range of changes were analysed by comparing results of a recent time period (1971–2005) and a scenario time period (2011–2045). All indicators showed higher risks for the scenario time period compared to the recent time period, except the late frost risk indicators, if averaged over all climate scenarios. The late frost risk for beech and oaks decreased for the main forest sites. Under recent climate conditions, the highest risk with regard to all five indicators was found to be in the Southwest Uplands and the northern part of Germany. The highest climate-induced uncertainty regarding the indicators for 2011–2045 is projected for the East Central Uplands and Northeast German Plain.
- ItemLong-term trends in the ionospheric E and F1 regions(Göttingen : Copernicus, 2008) Bremer, J.Ground based ionosonde measurements are the most essential source of information about long-term variations in the ionospheric E and F1 regions. Data of such observations have been derived at many different ionospheric stations all over the world some for more than 50 years. The standard parameters foE, h'E, and foF1 are used for trend analyses in this paper. Two main problems have to be considered in these analyses. Firstly, the data series have to be homogeneous, i.e. the observations should not be disturbed by artificial steps due to technical reasons or changes in the evaluation algorithm. Secondly, the strong solar and geomagnetic influences upon the ionospheric data have carefully to be removed by an appropriate regression analysis. Otherwise the small trends in the different ionospheric parameters cannot be detected. The trends derived at individual stations differ markedly, however their dependence on geographic or geomagnetic latitude is only small. Nevertheless, the mean global trends estimated from the trends at the different stations show some general behaviour (positive trends in foE and foF1, negative trend in h'E) which can at least qualitatively be explained by an increasing atmospheric greenhouse effect (increase of CO2 content and other greenhouse gases) and decreasing ozone values. The positive foE trend is also in qualitative agreement with rocket mass spectrometer observations of ion densities in the E region. First indications could be found that the changing ozone trend at mid-latitudes (before about 1979, between 1979 until 1995, and after about 1995) modifies the estimated mean foE trend.
- ItemOverview: Tropospheric profiling: State of the art and future challenges - Introduction to the AMT special issue(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2014) Cimini, D.; Rizi, V.; Di Girolamo, P.; Marzano, F.S.; Macke, A.; Pappalardo, G.; Richter, A.This paper introduces the Atmospheric Measurement Techniques special issue on tropospheric profiling, which was conceived to host full papers presenting the results shown at the 9th International Symposium on Tropospheric Profiling (ISTP9). ISTP9 was held in L'Aquila (Italy) from 3 to 7 September 2012, bringing together 150 scientists representing of 28 countries and 3 continents. The tropospheric profiling special issue collects the highlights of ISTP9, reporting recent advances and future challenges in research and technology development.
- ItemAdapting flood preparedness tools to changing flood risk conditions: The situation in Poland(Sopot : Polish Academy of Sciences, 2014) Kundzewicz, Z.W.Flooding is the most destructive natural hazard in the Baltic Sea Basin in general and in Poland in particular. The notion includes floods from rivers and mountain torrents, as well as floods from sea surges in coastal areas, and floods from sewage systems. There have been several large floods in Poland in the last century and in recent decades, with damage exceeding 1% of the Polish GDP. The spatial and temporal characteristics of the flood risk in Poland are reviewed and observations and projections of changes in the flood hazard in the country are discussed. Furthermore, flood defences and flood preparedness systems in Poland are examined, with particular reference to the European Union (EU) Floods Directive, which is being implemented in Poland, an EU country. Finally, the public debate on flood risk and flood preparedness is reviewed.